4. Security issues and the military asymmetry of the Cross-Strait
4.2 The military power of China
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Another sign of the declining power and importance of this sector is the continuous decline of the number of soldiers and personnel in the military’s every branch, from the army to the navy. According to 2013 Quadrennial Defense Review, The Republic of China, as part of this downsizing the previous number of 270,000 personnel was decrease to approximately 215,000. As for the reasons behind Taipei’s actions, domestic politics can be mentioned, among others. (Murray 2013, Quadrennial Defense Review 2013)
Meanwhile, China has been spending larger funds and has been modernizing and reforming its military sector. In 2013, the military budget of the PRC was US$114 billion. This number was reached by constant rising of the funds spent on the military – 10.7 percent rise since 2012 and earlier numbers: 12.7 percent rise in 2011, 7.5 percent in 2010 and 18.5 percent in 2009. These numbers however can only be referred to as presumed ones. Some experts speculate the military budget can be as high as US$135- 215 billion. According to Beijing officials, this budget is equally contributed between three areas: personnel, equipment, and training and maintenance.
(Yin 2011, Canan 2013)
The changes have been aimed both at Taiwan and the US as well. As for the prior, the goal of the PRC is to become a stronger military force than Taiwan, as the ROC is considered to be one of the regional threats to China. In the latter’s case, Beijing’s main goal is to stop the Washington lead military to come to Taiwan’s aid if the Chinese leaders settle on attacking the island. It can be concluded that Beijing’s primary plans merely focused on the Taiwan Strait, but have expanded. This expansion is not only geographical. The PRC also wants to advance the PLA in sectors like space, cyberspace and electronic warfare. (Annual Report to Congress 2013, Canan 2013, Kleiber 2009, Shlapak et al. 2009)
4.2 The military power of China
China’s military is becoming the one of the strongest in the world. In the following years, it will share this title with the United States, which presently possesses this status. In comparison with the state’s economy, the military successes of Beijing can already be dated back for some time, while the auspicious economical sector does not have such a long history. The reason behind this, as it was mentioned in the
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importance was placed above others, including the military. (Hauser 2009, Kleiber 2009, Swaine 2010)However following the upsurgence of the economy, the magnitude of the military was realized again, as it was needed to protect what the PRC has achieved. It is for both domestic and international reasons that the leaders’ attention had to turn back to the presently discussed sector: domestically the major groups that govern the state have to keep the peace and the confidence of the people in their government and country has to be sustained. Internationally, the US’s hegemony, other, rising powers and the growing interdependences push Chinese leaders to place more emphasis on the military sector. Nevertheless, these influences also increase the PRC’s tolerance towards other norms and areas, raising leaders who establish connections with other states, consciously towards these norms. It also has to be noted the officials of the PRC also believe that the army has to be kept strong for a possible military conflict.
Besides a conflict in the international community, Chinese leaders also what to prepare for a domestic conflict that may occur. (Swaine 2010)
Two factors can be especially pointed out to corroborate the successfulness of the PRC’s military: the number of the armed forces that is under the control of the Chinese commandership, which is the largest in the world and the nuclear weapons that Beijing possesses and with which China has owned its title as a nuclear power for the past decades. (Hauser 2009, Kleiber 2009)
Its structure, utensils has undergone modernization, but concepts and guidelines used as the theoretical background of the actions and development of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is still based on socialist and Chinese socialist thoughts and principles, among other Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong’s thoughts. Furthermore China’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) unquestionable leadership and commend over the troops and the army’s capabilities. One of the clearest proofs of this is the Central Military Commission, which takes the position of the highest committee in the chain of command in the Chinese military and which is also headed by the General Secretary of the CCP, who is also the president of the PRC in one person. High ranking PLA members traditionally are also given positions in the top of the Chinese leadership, but the army isn’t represented in bigger numbers. However as of the past years the ideological legitimacy of the CCP has been declining, which not just affects
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It is exactly this structure and these doctrines that also need modernization as well.
As described below, Beijing is working on improving every branch of its military, to command a modern army with up-to-date weaponry, equipment and capabilities.
However, according to experts, these expansions are not enough, if they are not followed by changes in the doctrines and structures. The CCP does not seem willing to go through with these necessary doctrinal shifts, even though it would particularly be important for the long term future of this sector. This would contribute to China mastering modern warfare and make it a strong force for the coming years and decades.
(Kleiber 2009)
Three things can be listed as the focus points of China’s military policies and concerns: the theatre missile defense (TMD) built up the United States, the arms sales to Taiwan, which is also Washington’s action and the resolution to keep the military strategies flexible. (Hauser 2009)
There are five basic aims of the Chinese national security: “1. To stop separation and promote reunification, guard against and resist aggression, and defend national sovereignty, territorial integrity and maritime rights and interests, 2. To safeguard the interests of national development, promote economic and social development in an all-around coordinated and sustainable way, and steadily increase overall national strength, 3. To modernize China’s national defense in line with both the national conditions of China and the trend of military development in the world by adhering to the policy of coordinating military and economic development, and to improve the operational capabilities of self-defense under the conditions of informationization. 4.
To safeguard the political, economic and cultural rights and interests of the Chinese people, crack down on criminal activities of all sorts and maintain public order and social stability. 5. To pursue an independent foreign policy of peace and adhere to the new security concept featuring mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination with the view of securing a long-term and favorable international and surrounding environment” (Hauser 2009, 21)
As for the military connections with other countries, the PRC has built up a number of military consultation mechanisms with other states. Besides the major powers like the Russian Federation and the United States, this connection was set up with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. All together, China has military relations with
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countries and also takes part in the United Nations’ peacekeeping forces. (Hauser 2009)As in the economic sector, modernization is also an important factor in the currently discussed sector. The military technologies are constantly improved and China could not afford to be left behind by other states in this area. “Revolution in military affairs with Chinese characteristics” is the name given to these changes of development that date back to the middle of the 1990s. The capabilities have to be constantly increased, which demands a strong research and development (R&D) department inside the military. Beside technical changes, a military also has to go through structural and organizational improvements with the goals of bettering the command line and the institutional builtup of the PLA. These expansions include all branches of the army but it has to be noted that not all of these divisions are given equal attention. However the modernization has been massive and it can be noted with confidence that these processes are likely to continue in the future. (Canan 2013, Hauser 2009, Kleiber 2009)
The reason behind the need of these modernizations is the threats and the unstable region that China exists in and faces. Domestic and international problems and factors both present challenges for Beijing. The question of Taiwan and the relations between Beijing and Taipei is seen as one of these uncertain regional connections of the PRC.
(Kleiber 2009)
Funds are most certainly needed for the advancements and improvements. The military sector as a whole is very fund consuming. As mentioned in the introductions, there are no exact statistics on how much Beijing spends annually on its army. A certain amount is announced each year, but it is a known fact that not every spending is included. One factor among others that has an effect on the announced budget as well is the up built of China’s economy. In a commend economy, as the PRC’s, the state has a stronger impact on the market, also entirely controls it, which can also make these statistics somewhat unreliable. (Kleiber 2009) This is often so in the military sphere as well.
What can be stated for sure is that the funds spent on the military sector are increasing every year and have doubled in just a few years’ time, with an astonishing growth rate. As a result, China became the state with the second biggest budget spent on its military, following the US. Some warn that these huge numbers can be interpreted as China getting ready to attack either the United States or other countries.
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Others are less concerned, explaining the unusually high spending on the developing state of the PRC. (Kleiber 2009)
According to the most recent plans, China is getting the PLA ready for A2/AD – anti-access and area-denial warfare. Under this type of supposed warfare, all sectors of the PLA are included and concentrated, from the air force and the navy till the newly constructed cyberspace branch – excluding however the army. The goal is to be able to detect, attack and disable the enemy before it gets close enough to the territory of China. The most concerned territory is the sea. Naval weaponry – submarines and the PLA’s first aircraft carrier – and missiles – mostly against naval ships - are advanced for this purpose. If the PRC is to perfect its capabilities for this kind of warfare it still has further modernization to go through, including modern submarines, updating the information gathering and processing abilities of the PLA and training the personnel of the newly acquired weaponry. (Annual Report to Congress 2013, Canan 2013)
Looking at the major branches of the military is a key to understanding this sector better.
The greatest branches of the Chinese military are the ground forces of the PLA. The number of the soldiers employed and the number of senior personal commending them verifies this statement. However as the armed forces sector, the ground forces branch is going through changes as well. As Beijing fits and prepares its army for a different style of war and combating, changing from a regional perspective to a rather transregional one, the up built and structure of the ground forces shifts as well.
(Kleiber 2009)
The PRC’s territory is divided into seven Military Regions (MRs). Under this highest level of organizational unit, the ground troops are also divided into eighteen Group Armies (GAs). Around sixty thousand soldiers serve under a GA. Here they are additionally separated into smaller units. Alongside soldiers specializing in combat, artillery and air defense, these brigades also include among others engineers and logistics specialists. This unit and brigade divisions are greatly influenced by the above discussed modernizations. The strict system seems to somewhat dissolving.
(Kleiber 2009)
The units that specialize on combat are the main forces of the ground armed forces.
The number of soldiers belonging to this section is unknown, but is estimated to be between six hundred thousand and seven hundred fifty thousand. The equipment and accessories used by these combat forces - tanks, vehicles and artillery systems – have
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obsolete. The already undergoing modernization has had an effect in the equipments – particularly armed assaulting vehicles and helicopters, besides anti-air and suppression weapons - as well as their upgrading has started, but there is still a long way to go.Presently, as in the past, most of China’s military accessories are imported from Russia. (Kleiber 2009, Yin 2011)
One of the main goals of the modernizations is the upgrading of the navy of the PLA. Beijing wants for it to have a greater role in the military. In the future, it is planned to take the place of the ground forces, as the biggest and strongest section of the armed forces. The reason behind this is the predicted future threats that China expects to receive from the sea surrounding it. The third island chain, from the eastern coasts of Japan to Guam’s south region, and Taiwan are the territories that the PLA’s navy division (PLAN) has to focus on. It is often emphasized that it is just these territories China is interested and Beijing does not have greater ambitions which would threaten other states and nations. (Kleiber 2009)
The increased attention that the Chinese leaders dedicate to the navy has been noticed by other states surrounding the PRC and these changes leave them suspicious and scared. It can be stated that most of the below described modernizations (Chang 2012)
The PLAN itself is made up of a northern, an eastern and a southern fleet. As the ground forces, the navy is also further separated. The fleets are responsible for any activity in their region, for which reason, just like the army, it is not just combat marine who make up the fleets. The security of the coasts, the waters and the naval aviation all belong to the given fleet. (Kleiber 2009)
The most significant areas where the navy is modernized are the submarine and missile – anti-ship missiles and destroyers, surface vessels and aircrafts - section. As these involve nuclear questions as well, they will be discussed further in the nuclear section below. Another area that is being developed is the communicational capabilities of the PLAN. The navy is preparing both to fight a possible enemy and to occupy and possess given areas. A provisory attack from Taiwan is also taken into consideration, where the navy would have to try and prevent an attack and be able to respond to it as well. (Kleiber 2009, Yin 2011)
The air force branch of the PLA (PLAAF) is also divided into additional branches.
Except for one, all the separate Military Regions all have their air force commands,
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which include five air corps and six bases. Further separations also apply. The division of the air force and their location clearly states that the focus areas of the PLAAF are the South China Sea, Japan and Taiwan. (Agnihotri 2011, Kleiber 2009)
The modernizational process is also visible here, as the tasks given the air force increase. Air defense used to be the central obligation of the PLAAF, which has been extended to offence, defense and blockade. This meant that the air planes originally owned by the PLA were not sufficient anymore. Types and functions had to be broadened. For the air force to be ready for this, great improvement were performed.
As in other sectors, it is mostly technological and amortization questions that Beijing has to deal with. One way these problems could be solved is by China building its own aircrafts, which they are already working on. New, domestically developed, fifth-generation fighter aircrafts are to be launched around 2018. Today the PLA possesses a significant number of modern striker aircrafts, which are fourth-generation types from Russia and of which several are self driven, with no pilots needed. Beyond weaponry, the organization and the strategies had to be updated as well. (Agnihotri 2011, Annual Report to Congress 2013, Canan 2013, Kearn 2014)
Other forces under the PLA that need mentioning are the People’s Armed Police (PAP), reserve forces and certain militia units. The members of these forces cannot be considered real soldiers, but their possible number is so great – their estimated number is around ten million – that they deserve attention. It is not real warfare that Beijing expects them to participate in, but rather in modern types of combat, including the information warfare, which involves executing cyber-attacks, creating and spreading viruses, capable of both offensive and defensive activities. Special units all over the PRC have been trained and organized for this purpose. It is believed that these have already broken into different computerized system, many of them located in Taiwan, but Western systems were targeted as well. (Kleiber 2009)
The second artillery corps of the PLA is a separate section in the army. Both conventional and nuclear missiles are handled by this branch. The modernizations that are planned and implemented in this branch are for the PLA to own a wider range of missiles, for Beijing to have a large variety of missiles under its command. Both the current number of missiles is constantly increasing and the types of them are varying.
Some are products of China, while other are bought from Russia and are more advanced than the prior type. The bases of the missiles ranges from silo, truck, cave to
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specifically CSS-6 and CSS-7 types. A majority of these missiles are directed towards Taiwan. Another such focus is on intermediate-range missiles. These are aimed to respond to a possible American attack and their numbers and quality have been improved in the near past. CSS-5 IRBM and other anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), combined with land attack cruise missiles, like the ground-based DH-10 would serve similar purposes, as they can destroy American carrier ships, outposts and airbases, which are located in the Eastern Asian region or even beyond that, given their 2100 kilometer range. Surface-to-air missiles (SAM) also play a significant role. Some of them have the ability to take out other launched missiles that are heading towards the territories of the PRC, which has been proven in various military exercises. (Annual Report to Congress 2013, Canan 2013, Kearn 2014, Kleiber 2009)As noted before, in the past China’s conventional and nuclear missile power served as a defensive system against possible attacks, instead of a threatening, offensive system. This attitude is still somewhat valid in the present despite the changes, when Beijing nuclear capabilities fare rather as a diplomatic statement characterizing China’s connections to other states and the PRC would possibly not engaging in a full-scale nuclear attack, especially against the other nuclear powers. In other words, the growth of the Chinese nuclear arsenal is not only significant in the military sphere.
The modernization in this branch of the military can also be studied from this different
The modernization in this branch of the military can also be studied from this different