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臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究

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表 2  1951 年到 1995 年 Gompertz 函數的參數估計    年 期 a            b  R 2 年 期 a            b  R 2 1951 -4.415 0.183 0.971  1974 -5.923 0.272 0.990  1952 -4.589 0.189 0.973  1975 -6.131 0.285 0.986  1953 -4.672 0.192 0.973  1976 -6.385 0.297 0.985  1954 -4.695 0.194
表 4  個別估計法參數配適之迴歸線及時間序列模型  年 齡 組 迴 歸 線 R 2 時 間 序 列 模 型 15-19 歲 5.2823-0.0294t 87.5%  (1-B)(1-0.5088B)ε t = a t                        ARIMA(1,1,0)  20-24 歲 6.9467-0.0278t 86.3%  (1-0.9752B)ε t = a t  orε t =ψε t-1 + a t                AR(1)  25-29 歲 6.9844
表 7  各模型在不同年度㆘的誤差結果比較(所有年齡加總)

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