• 沒有找到結果。

Modeling a Method to Measure the Economic Impacts of Multiple Energy Price Changes

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Modeling a Method to Measure the Economic Impacts of Multiple Energy Price Changes"

Copied!
25
0
0

加載中.... (立即查看全文)

全文

(1)Modeling a Method to Measure the Economic Impacts of Multiple Energy Price Changes. June 12, 2004. Suduk Kim** Department of Energy Studies Graduate School Ajou University. Key Words: CGE Model, Input-Output Analysis, Multiple Energy Price Changes, Industrial Sectors, Price Elasticity. JEL Classification: C67; D58. This paper is sponsored by a project conducted as a joint research of Stanford Research Institute Consulting (SRIC) and Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI). ** Please correspond to him: Email: suduk@ajou.ac.kr, Address: Department of Energy Studies, Graduate School, Ajou University, Suwon, Korea, 443-749. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(2) Abstract We investigate a practical method of calculating the impact of multiple domestic energy price change on the final demand, production, the export and import change, the change in the balance of payment of Korean economy. By combining an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with the traditional input-output analysis with two additional assumptions on the price behavior, we provide a cost-effective method of analyzing the impact of multiple energy price changes on the domestic economy. The energy price shock we used in this paper is 0.127% increase weighted by the sectoral productions. The total impacts on price level and GDP are 1.258% and -0.940%, respectively. The impact on the total output (GDP and intermediate goods) is about 1.580%.. 2. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(3) I. Introduction Energy prices in Korean economy have been designed and maintained to support the industrially growing economy. Korean government has played a major role in the pricing of energy. One of the main objectives of Korea’s energy policies was to ensure the energy sectors managed to provide low cost of energy supplies for the economic development and growth. Keeping energy prices low was very essential to ensuring industrial competitiveness and social policy. This leads lot of distortions in energy prices. The energy prices have been kept lower than those without the government interventions. In the dynamically interdependent economy and energy market, Korean economic and energy security interest can be obtained by energy prices based on market. The utility companies under the current pricing arrangements are unable to generate sufficient funds to meet their future investment needs. Besides, low energy prices will hinder the market from working efficiently. There was a provision of the idea that the adjustment in distorted energy prices is one of the most important things to do in energy policy to achieve marketoriented economy. At this paper, we examine the economic impact of the price policy to provide information about the policy result. In order to make a balanced policy direction, we investigate various scenarios of the energy prices. Most of the policy makers agree to the necessity of the price changes in energy, but shows a deep concerns over the sudden consequences in the industries and economy. The purpose of this chapter is to show the experimental figure of the results of the policy changes. A brief overview of the process is described in next chapter. In order to use demand elasticity, a computable general equilibrium model is introduced in third chapter. Price effects of each sector are followed in fourth chapter, using input-output analysis. At fifth chapter we combined the results of two analyses to get the effects in production, export, and import of the Korean economy.. II. Methodology and sector classification Energy sector is an area of particular interest due to the strong linkage between this sector and economic and social well being of a country. Energy is closely related not only with final demand but also with the production of all goods as a factor of the production. This characteristic is well explained in the input-output table. In order to investigate the effect of energy price changes on economy, we decided to use two kinds of methods using input output relations. They are input output analysis and computable general equilibrium models.. 3. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(4) Input-output analysis has many advantages for the purpose. It can handle various impacts of the price changes in sub-sectors at a reasonable computational cost. But the static situation it assumes has a limit that the analysis is restricted to only price level changes of other commodities. It cannot handle the demand or production of each industry. The appropriate approach to evaluate the effects would be using a computable general equilibrium model. This model can handle the economy as complete system, though it has a lot of assumptions and high cost of computational efforts. In order to examine various scenarios of energy price changes, we have to build different CGE models for each individual scenario. And the additional problem is that it is very difficult to handle multiple shocks in a model simultaneously with a static model structure. Under this circumstance, we have tried to combine two different approaches. We build an analytical tool using input output model first. After that we will combine this with a simulated result of other existing CGE model under some assumptions. Classification of Industrial Sectors In order to investigate the sectoral effects of the energy price adjustment, we need to classify the industry. It is summarized in table 1. The first column is ordinary classification (25 sectors) of the input output table of Korea. Next one is about new classification for the analysis of the impact on industries of the energy price shock. The Korean economy has been disaggregated into 29 industrial sectors with primary fossil fuels and energy sectors finely classified.. III. Summary of the CGE model used We have investigated the impact of energy price adjustment on the price level of each industry. We expect that the price changes in each industry change the markets of each commodity continuously. In order to calculate the demand elasticity of each industry, we need some extra information from a model with the general economic structure. One standard static computable general equilibrium model of Korean economy (Sonn & Shin (1997)) is selected for this purpose. Computable General Equilibrium Model This model examines the economic effects on Korean economy, of an exogenous increase in importing price of oil. This model is constructed based on neoclassical theory like Robinson (1989) and Melo and Tarr (1992).. 4. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(5) Table 1. Industrial Sectors Classification Classification 25* Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Mining and quarrying. Food & kindred products, & tobacco Textile mill products, apparel, & leather Paper & wood products Petroleum & coal products. Chemicals & chemical products Stone, clay, & glass products Primary metal products Fabricated metal products General machinery & equipment Electric & electronic equipment Transportation equipment Precision instruments Miscellaneous manufactured products Electric, gas, & water services. Construction Wholesale & retail trade Transportation & warehouse Communications Finance & insurance Real estate & business services Public administration and defense Education and health services. Classification 29 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Anthracite coal Bituminous coal Crude petroleum Natural gas Quarrying Food & kindred products, & tobacco Textile mill products, apparel, & leather Paper & wood products Coal products Gasoline Kerosene Light oil Bunker-c oil Liquefied petroleum gas Other petroleum products Chemicals & chemical products Stone, clay, & glass products Primary metal products Metal products and machinery. Code 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20. Electric & electronic equipment Transportation equipment. 21 22. Miscellaneous manufactured products Electric power Piped gas supply Steam & hot water supply Construction Wholesale, transportation, & finance. 23 24 25 26 27 28. Public Adm. & other services. Social and personal services * Classification 25 is standard industrial code of I/O 1993. 29. Korea is assumed to be a small open economy and, so, it behaves as a pricetaker in world markets. All domestic markets of commodity and factor are. 5. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(6) competitive with full employment of factors of production. All economic actors take market prices as given and maximize their objective function subject to their constraints. The household’s utility function is of a Cobb-Douglas type: U =. n. ∏ CD α , i. i. i =1. n. ∑α i =1. i. αi ≥ 0. = 1,. where CDi is a consumption of composite good i. Government also consumes composite commodities, CGi , which is assumed to be fixed in the model. The economy produces outputs, XDi which is a Leontief function of value added, VAi, and intermediate inputs of composite goods, INi: ⎡VA j IN1 j IN 2 j IN nj ⎤ XD j = min ⎢ , , ,..., ⎥ , where vj ,ioij : Leontief coefficient ionj ⎥⎦ ⎢⎣ v j io1 j io2 j. Value added is produced by a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) technology, using labor, Li, and capital, Ki, as inputs. Produced output is transformed into exports, Ei, and domestic goods, XSi. The model has no independent investment function and aggregate savings are equal to aggregate investment. It is assumed that there is a single capital good sector and this capital good, Z, is produced by a Leontief technology:. ⎡ ID ID ID ⎤ Z = min ⎢ 1 , 2 ,...., n ⎥ inrn ⎦ ⎣ inr1 inr2. where inri = Leontief coefficient. where Zi is an investment demand for composite good i. This capital good is demanded by household and government for the store of value. The equilibrium system is described in the Appendix II. The model is composed of 4 blocks. They are price block, production block, demand block, and equilibrium conditions. The system includes optimization behavior of household, firms, and government, and equilibrium conditions for the commodity and factor markets. There are (18n+11) equations and same number of endogenous variables. Since we classified Korean industry by 23 sectors, the number of equations and endogenous variables are 425.. Data. 6. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(7) The year 1993 has been chosen as the benchmark of the model. That was the latest available input output table for the CGE model. To calibrate the model, the 1993 input-output table, national income and product accounts and other tax data for the Korean economy have been consistently adjusted.. Results of the simulation The simulation of the CGE model is conducted on the impact of the import price change of the crude oil. The exogenous impact is 30% increase in importing price. The simulation result is summarized in Table 2. The numbers in the table are followings: - Final Demand change (. dYi ): final demand change for the 1% increase in oil price dP4. ( P4 ). dEi ): export change for the 1% increase in oil price ( P4 ) dP4 dM i ): import change for the 1% increase in oil price ( P4 ) - Import change ( dP4 - Export change (. Table 2. Results of the simulation Code Industrial sectors. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14. Final Demand change. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Anthracite coal Bituminous coal Crude petroleum Natural gas Quarrying Food & kindred products, & tobacco Textile mill products, apparel, & leather Paper & wood products Coal products Gasoline Kerosene Light oil Bunker-c oil. -126.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 -532.10 -202.91 -16.81 -30.16 -57.02 -23.65 -68.15 -44.74. 7. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics. Export change 16.85 0.0. -0.10 13.44 93.12 3.54 0.11 -249.43. Import chang. -194.18 -34.48 -553.33 -8.80 16.22 -213.85 -132.14 -33.72 -0.63 -307.73.

(8) 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29. Liquefied petroleum gas Other petroleum products Chemicals & chemical products Stone, clay, & glass products Primary metal products Metal products and machinery Electric & electronic equipment Transportation equipment Miscellaneous manufactured products Electric power Piped gas supply Steam & hot water supply Construction Wholesale, transportation, & finance Public adm. & other services. -18.87 -69.67 -781.73 -18.13 0.00 353.47 -48.63 35.15 -60.10 -70.86 -20.98 -4.27 1311.60 -1005.62 -121.50. -36.19 -2.35 5.17 37.79 72.25 23.83 14.75 -0.06 -0.04. 44.09 52.73 93.37 15.13 -79.11 -55.33 -32.85 -0.11 -0.1. 1.45 21.95 3.22. -68.18 -25.43. IV. Input output analysis Assume that the national economy can be aggregated into n industries and a sector of final demands that includes household and government purchases. The dollar values of transactions among sectors can be presented in the following transactions matrix S: ⎡ x 11 p 1 ⎢ ⎢ x 21 p 2 S = ⎢M M ⎢ ⎢ x n1 p n ⎢ ⎣⎢ v1 v 2. x 12 p 1 L x 1n p 1 d 1 p 1 ⎤ ⎥ x 22 p 2 L x 2 n p 2 d 2 p 2 ⎥ , ⎥ ⎥ x n 2 p n L x nn p n d n p n ⎥ ⎥ L vn ⎦⎥. (1). where pi represents the price per unit of product i ; di is the final demand for output i ; and vi represents the value added of the i -th industry. Each row shows the intermediate and final uses of input, and each column shows the intermediate and factor inputs of an industry. For example, x21 is the physical quantity of the output from industry 2 that is used by industry 1. With no loss in generality, the unit price convention defines the physical unit of each commodity as the amount that sells for $1. Since all prices are one, dollar volume in equation (1) can be used to derive the input coefficients. Let xi be the sum of all demands in row j a measure of total output.. 8. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(9) Then define aij as the “input coefficient,” the input of the ith good as a fraction of total output of industry j: a ij = x ij / x j '. (2). where n x j = ∑ x ji + d j i =1. These input coefficients are assumed constant. This assumption is useful and appropriate for calculating first-order effects on the cost of output from variations in the cost of different inputs, as done here, but it does not account for second-order effects, such as changes in the mix of inputs. These second-order effects would be necessary to estimate efficiency effects from tax distortions or to estimate tax revenue after adjustments in behavior. As long as profits are included in the value added, the sum of all inputs plus value-added is equal to the value of gross output. Also, the sum of all intermediate and final uses is equal to the value of gross output. Thus each column sum of matrix (1) is equal to the corresponding row sum: x 11 p 1 + x 21 p 2 + L + x n1 p n + V 1 = x 1 p 1' x 12 p 1 + x 22 p 2 + L + x n 2 p n + V 2 = x 2 p 2 ' M M L M M M L + + + + = p p p x nn n V n x n p n ' x 1n 1 x 2 n 2. (3). Each of these equations is divided by total output of that industry xi and then rearranged and reexpressed using the input coefficients to find. (1 − a11) p1 − a 12 p 1 M − a 1n p 1. − a 21 p 2. −L. − a n1 p n. = V 1 / x1'. + (1 − a 22 ) p 2 − L. − a n2 p n M. = V 2 / x 2'. M. L. M. (. − a 2 n p 2 − L + 1 − a nn p n. ). (4). = V n / x n'. Using matrix algebra, these equations can then by represented by. (I - A′)P = V. (5). Where. 9. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(10) ⎡ a 11 a 12 L a 1n ⎤ ⎥ ⎢ a a L a 2n⎥ ' A = ⎢ 21 22 ⎥ ⎢ M M L M ⎥ ⎢ ⎣⎢ a n1 a n 2 L a nn ⎦⎥. ⎡ p1 ⎤ ⎥ ⎢ p P = ⎢⎢ 1 ⎥⎥ ' M ⎥ ⎢ ⎢⎣ p n ⎥⎦. and where I is the identity matrix. be derived as follows:. ⎡ v1 / x1 ⎤ ⎥ ⎢ v /x V = ⎢ 2 2⎥' ⎥ ⎢ M ⎥ ⎢ ⎣⎢ v n / x n ⎦⎥. If (I - A) -1 is nonsingular, the price vector can. (6) P = (I - A′) −1 V To analyze the external price change impact on other sector, we may have to modify the above equation (6). Let us decompose the price vector into internal ( P I ) and external ( P E ) price vector, and suppose k sectors prices change. Then P E is ( k x 1 ) and P I is ( n − k ) x 1 vector. From equation (3), we have the following equations. a 11 p 1 + a 21 p 2 + L + a n 1 p n + v 1 = a 1 p 1 ' a 12 p 1 + a 22 p 2 + L + a n 2 p n + v 2 = a 2 p 2 ' M M L M M M a 1 n p 1 + a 2 n p 2 + L + a nn p n + v n = a n p n '. (7). By externalizing the price impact described above, we have ~ ˆ ' P E + ~v = P I . A'P I + A. (8). ~ v are input coefficient matrix and ratio of value added except the sectors Here, A , ~ ˆ is ( n − k ) x k input coefficient matrix of the sectors of of external price change. A external price change. To get the impact of external price change, take total derivative on both side of equation (8) with the assumption that value added ratio doesn’t change, i.e., dv~ = 0 .. ~ ˆ 'dP E = dP I A 'dP I + A With some arrangement, we get external price impact on other sectors such as. ~ ˆ ' dP E dP I = (I − A ' ) −1 A. (9). When dP E is a vector of price changes as in this case of 30% increase of crude oil ~ ˆ ' can be interpreted as the price elasticity of external price price change, (I − A ' ) −1 A shock. Using equation (9), we calculated the impact of 30% price increase in sector 4,. 10. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(11) crude oil, on i -th sector ( dPi / dP4 ) in Table 3.. V. Integration of the results In order to get the output effect of price change, we have to combine the results from CGE and I/O model together. If we can find the price elasticity of final demand in all sectors, we may be able to analyze the economic impact of energy price change. In this chapter, we show sectoral price elasticity, the simulation results of final demand change, total output change, sectoral price elasticity of import, export and their changes. Basic structure of the process In order to combine both results, we need two assumptions on well working price mechanism. In this economy, prices are so flexible that prices can absorb any shock in other price. The only way to change the output of the sector is through the own price. Assumptions : i) Yi = Yi ( Pi ) ii) Pi = Pi ( P1 , P2 ,..., Pn ). i = 1,2,..., n. The first assumption is that final demand of each sector is a function of the own price of the sector. And second one is that price of each sector is function of the prices of all sectors. We can decompose the effect of importing oil price change on final demand like followings: dYi dYi dPi = dP4 dPi dP4. i = 1,2,..., n. Table 3. Sectoral Price impact of Crude Oil Price change Sector Industrial sectors dP4 1 0 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries 2 0 Anthracite coal 3 0 Bituminous coal. dPi 0.00551 0.00592 0. 11. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics. dPi / dP4 0.01836 0.01972 0.

(12) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29. Crude petroleum Natural gas Quarrying Food & kindred products, & tobacco Textile mill products, apparel, & leather Paper & wood products Coal products Gasoline Kerosene Light oil Bunker-c oil Liquefied petroleum gas Other petroleum products Chemicals & chemical products Stone, clay, & glass products Primary metal products Metal products and machinery Electric & electronic equipment Transportation equipment Miscellaneous manufactured products Electric power Piped gas supply Steam & hot water supply Construction Wholesale, transportation, & finance Public Adm. & other services. 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0.3 0 0.00826 0.00559 0.00824 0.00784 0.00376 0.07889 0.18113 0.18207 0.19917 0.17872 0.15788 0.01742 0.01127 0.00782 0.00614 0.00503 0.00581 0.00610 0.02167 0.02185 0.03559 0.00668 0.00704 0.00491. 1 0 0.02752 0.01864 0.02748 0.02614 0.01254 0.26296 0.60375 0.60691 0.66391 0.59574 0.52628 0.05806 0.03757 0.02606 0.02047 0.01677 0.01936 0.02033 0.07223 0.07282 0.11864 0.02226 0.02347 0.01636. dYi dP ) and ( i ) from CGE and I/O dP4 dP4 analysis, respectively, price elasticity of each sector ( ηi ) can be easily obtained as follows:. Since we already obtained final demand change (. ηi =. dYi Pi dYi dP4 Pi = dPi Yi dP4 dPi Yi. (10). 12. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(13) Price changes scenarios. 1) Base Scenario for the Price Impact Analysis (Unit: Won) Sector Industry 11 Gasoline 12 Kerosene 13 Light oil 14 Bunker-c oil 15 Liquefied petroleum gas 24 Electric power 25 Piped gas supply S* : Subsidy for production cost dP = (S* + Tax) / P. Price (P) 1089.90 438.20 485.50 216.32 516.10 71.10 372.30. S*. 7.96 40.00. Tax -54.65 -14.19 133.50 26.00 -12.00 3.00 -11.00. dP -0.05014 -0.03238 0.27497 0.12019 -0.02325 0.15415 0.07789. 2) Alternative Scenario for the Price Impact Analysis (Unit: Won) Sector Industry 11 Gasoline 12 Kerosene 13 Light oil 14 Bunker-c oil 15 Liquefied petroleum gas 24 Electric power 25 Piped gas supply S* : Subsidy for production cost dP = (S* + Tax) / P. Price (P) 1045.64 379.43 496.59 229.25 542.60 71.93 427.55. S*. 11.87 3.65. Tax 99.39 -74.07 219.45 28.20 -13.48 3.29 -12.39. dP (Tax) 0.09505 -0.19521 0.44191 0.12301 -0.02484 0.21076 -0.02044. Simulation results of the alternative scenario are provided in Appendix 3. For the base scenario, we can obtain effects on the price vector, dP I , from the equation (9). Impacts on final demand and total output Given sectoral price elasticity as above, change of final demand in nominal term ( dYi Pi ) can be obtained as below: dYi Pi = η i dPi Yi. (11). dYi dP = ηi i Yi Pi Table 4 reports the simulation results on final demand change, given the base scenario for sectoral price change.. 13. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(14) From I/O analysis, we know the relationship between final demand and total output. That is, X = ( I − A) −1 Y. Taking total derivative on both sides, we get dX = ( I − A) −1 dY .. With dYi for each sector obtained above, we get the amount of total output change given price change scenario. Table 4 summarizes the result.. Import, Export Change and Change in Balance of Payment. As was derived in equation (10), we can get the price elasticity of import ( η iIM ) and export ( η iEX ) as follows: dDi Pi dDi dP4 Pi = dPi Di dP4 dPi Di D = IMPORT ( IM ), EXPORT ( EX ) .. ηi D =. where. From CGE model, we have the import and export change given 30% crude oil price dD P increase ( i ) and base year values ( i ). I/O analysis gives us its price dP4 Di dP impact on other sectors ( i ) as in equation (9). As in equation (11), nominal dP4 change ( dDi Pi ) of import and export with the given scenario is. dDi Pi = η iD dPi Di dDi dPi = ηiD . Di Pi. Table 5 summarizes the simulation results. The resulting change of import and export on balance of payment is 479,192 mil.. Won surplus. Decreasing import. 14. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(15) can be easily understood. But the small increases (51,378 mil. Won) could be better understood with a closer examination of export in 1995. Considering the fact that I/O analysis uses base year of 1995 figure and some abnormal composition of export at that period (sector 8-Textile mill products, apparel, & leather, sector 17- chemicals & chemical products, sector 21 -Electric & electronic equipment), their effect on export might have been exaggerated. For a better understanding of this topic, a further examination of CGE model is required. This, however, will be out of the scope of our research at this time.. VI. Conclusion We have tried to link the CGE model and I/O analysis to calculate the impact of pricing policy changes in energy sectors on industrial production and final demand. CGE model approach can show us the simulation result of the specific economic policy with strong theoretical background. However, it requires burdensome computational cost for multiple policy packages. I/O analysis is very efficient in handling multiple scenarios in computation and building models. But it has very restrictive limit to show the effects on industrial production or final demand, because it uses a static and fixed coefficient approach. We tried to link these two approaches, under some assumptions. It has a strong limit in interpretation for the true impacts of the pricing policy. But we can evaluate it as an approximation of the true ones. The base scenario was written by synthesizing pricing policy that has been recommended for a long time by professionals. The direct impact on price level of the energy price shock is about 0.127% weighed by the sectoral productions. After the inter-industrial interactions, the total impact on price level is about 0.829%. Sectoral price impact is high in energy intensive industries, like chemicals and chemical products, cement industry, steel industry. Final demand of the energy changes oppositely to the changes in prices, which is consistent with the economic theory. The impact of the energy price shock on final demand (GDP) is about -0.656%, and the impact on the total output (GDP and intermediate goods) is about – 0.792%. Sectoral effects show considerable amount changes in the energy mix. After the adjustment like energy mix changes, the social cost of the energy price adjustment can be predicted as –0.656% in GDP loss. The most important advantage of the energy price adjustment can be found in energy savings and fuel mix changes. The effects are summarized in the table 6. The impact of the energy price shocks on imports and exports are about -427,825 Mil. Won, and 51,378 Mil. Won, respectively. The resulting change of import and export on balance of payment is 479,192 Mil Won.. 15. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(16) 16. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(17) Table 4. Simulation Result: Final Demand and total output Change Given the Base Price Change Scenario (Unit: Million Won) ( dX / X ) * 100 Industrial sector (dYi / Yi ) * 100 % ηi dP I % Change Change (%) i. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Anthracite coal Bituminous coal Crude petroleum Natural gas Quarrying Food & tobacco Textile, apparel, & leather Paper & wood products Coal products Gasoline Kerosene Light oil Bunker-c oil Liquefied petroleum gas Other petroleum products Chemicals & chemical products Stone, clay, & glass products Primary metal products Metal products and machinery Electric & electronic equipment Transportation equipment Misc. manufactured products Electric power Piped gas supply Steam & hot water supply Construction Wholesale, transportation, finance Public Adm. & other services. -1.03026 0 0 0 0.03260 0 -1.45473 -1.57637 -0.52169 -3.29568 -0.27395 -0.11932 -0.11870 -0.10851 -0.12092 -0.13688 -12.0696 -2.00368 0 1.20667 -0.34791 0.15228 -1.44008 -0.82282 -1.00698 -0.61809 1.48908 -1.19924 -0.22129. Total. 0.63124 1.31005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.40139 0.65947 0.77414 1.10541 0.59354 -5.01422 -3.23825 27.4974 12.0192 -2.32513 0.60901 1.03552 1.56879 1.56416 0.87578 0.62834 0.71463 0.70395 15.4149 7.78942 4.35003 0.73790 0.70833 0.55921 0.829. -0.65034 0 0 0 0 0 -0.95935 -1.22033 -0.57669 -1.95611 1.37367 0.38639 -3.26393 -1.30418 0.28116 -0.08336 -12.4984 -3.14335 0 1.05677 -0.21861 0.10883 -1.01374 -12.6837 -7.84378 -2.68872 1.09879 -0.84946 -0.12375 -0.65507. dYi Pi dYi dP4 Pi : Price elasticity of each sector = dPi Yi dP4 dPi Yi ~ ' −1 ˆ ' E I 2) dP = (I − A ) A dP : Price changes in each sector for the base scenario 1) η i =. 3) (dYi / Yi ) * 100 : Final demand change in each sector for the base scenario 4) (dX i / X i ) * 100 : Total output change in each sector for the base scenario. 17. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics. i. -0.96158 -1.59431 -1.60403 -2.20371 -4.72161 -0.26361 -0.93908 -1.30538 -0.85675 -0.53859 0.66115 -0.22736 -1.40785 -2.01586 -1.23279 -3.43656 -6.09142 0.09235 0.46020 0.61305 -0.19161 0.03017 -0.87754 -3.78786 -4.61899 -3.53368 0.90035 -0.80676 -0.32928 -0.79172.

(18) Table 5 Simulation Results: Import and Export Change Given the Base Price Change Scenario. (Unit: Million Won) Industrial sector. ηiIM. dP I (%). η iEX. dIM × 100 IM (%). dEX × 100 EX (%). Agriculture, forestry, fisheries. 0.63124. -3.20093. 1.0908. -0.02021. 0.006886. Anthracite coal. 1.31005. 0. 0. 0. 0. Bituminous coal. 0.00000. -0.03795. 0. 0. 0. Crude petroleum. 0.00000. -0.10736. 0. 0. 0. Natural gas. 0.00000. -0.02649. 0. 0. 0. Quarrying. 1.40139. 0.52642. -0.0510. 0.007377. -0.00071. Food & tobacco. 0.65947. -4.18737. 0.6144. -0.02761. 0.004052. Textile, apparel, & leather. 0.77414. -1.85853. 0.2553. -0.01439. 0.001976. Paper & wood products. 1.10541. -0.79839. 0.2507. -0.00883. 0.002771. Coal products. 0.59354. -3.15626. 0.4910. -0.01873. 0.002914. Gasoline. -5.01422. -0.45915. -1.1588. 0.023023. 0.058105. Kerosene. -3.23825. -0.19998. -0.5047. 0.006476. 0.016343. Light oil. 27.4974. -0.19894. -0.5021. -0.0547. -0.13806. Bunker-c oil. 12.0192. -0.18186. -0.4590. -0.02186. -0.05517. Liquefied petroleum gas. -2.32513. -0.20267. -0.5115. 0.004712. 0.011893. Other petroleum products. 0.60901. -0.22942. -0.5790. -0.0014. -0.00353. Chemicals & chemical prod.. 1.03552. 0.10780. -0.1759. 0.001116. -0.00182. Stone, clay, & glass products. 1.56879. 1.90786. -0.1504. 0.02993. -0.00236. Primary metal products. 1.56416. 0.72855. 0.0687. 0.011396. 0.001075. Metal products and machinery. 0.87578. 0.07382. 0.3841. 0.000647. 0.003364. Electric & electronic equip.. 0.62834. -0.56661. 0.4367. -0.00356. 0.002744. Transportation equipment. 0.71463. -1.27929. 0.3846. -0.00914. 0.002748. Misc. manufactured products. 0.70395. -2.93702. 0.4266. -0.02068. 0.003003. Electric power. 15.4149. -0.20381. -0.0310. -0.03142. -0.00478. Piped gas supply. 7.78942. -0.27225. -0.2284. -0.02121. -0.01779. Steam & hot water supply. 4.35003. -0.16711. -0.1402. -0.00727. -0.0061. Construction. 0.73790. 0. 0.6263. 0. 0.004621. Wholesale, transport, finance. 0.70833. -1.01529. 0.1043. -0.00719. 0.000739. Public Adm. & other services. 0.55921. -1.24171. 0.2199. -0.00694. 0.00123. -0.3678. 0.0451. Total. 0.829. 18. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(19) Table 6. Summary of Energy Saving: Energy Sectors changes given the Base Price Change Scenario (Unit: %). Gasoline. 0.66. Kerosene Light Oil Bunker–C Oil Liquefied Petroleum Gas Other Petroleum Products Electric Power Piped Gas Supply Steam and Hot Water Supply. -0.23 -1.41 -2.02 -1.23 -3.44 -3.79 -4.62 -3.53. 19. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(20) References Armington, P., 1969, A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production, IMF Staff Papers 16, 159-178. Bank of Korea , 1990, 1993, 1995, Input Output Table (I,II). Fullerton, Don, 1995, Why Have Separate Environmental Taxes?, presented at the NBER conference on Tax Policy and the Economy, Washington, D.C., Nov. 7. Lynch, R.G., 1986, An Assessment of the RAS method for Updating Input-Output Tables, in Ira Sohn (ed.) Readings in Input-Output Analysis – Theory and Applications, Oxford Press. Mathiesen, L., 1985, Computational Experience in Solving Equilibrium Models by a Sequence of Linear Complementary Problems, Operations Research 33, 1225-1250. Mathiesen, L., Computation of Economic Equilibrium Models by a Sequence of Linear Complementary Problems, Mathematical Programming Study 23. Melo, Jaime de and David Tarr, 1992, A General Equilibrium Analysis of US Foreign Trade Policy, London. Sonn, Y.H. and D.C. Shin, 1997, The Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Energy Industry: Computable General Equilibrium Model of Korea, Korean Economic Review, 45 (1). Sonn Y.H., 1999, The Macroeconomic Impacts of Importing Oil Price Changes in Korea : Computable General Equilibrium Model, Korea Resources Economics Review 8 (2). Uri, N.D. and Roy Boyd, 1997, An Evaluation of the Economic Effects of Higher Energy prices in Mexico’ Energy Policy, 25 (2).205-215.. Appendix 1 : Information on the 29 Sector Classification. 20. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(21) Sector. Original I/O Sector Number(1995). 1. 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 1116 1117 1121 1122 1123 1124 1125 1131 1132 1133 1134 1141 1142 1143 1144 2101 2102 2111 2112 2121 2122 2123 2124 2131 2132 2133 2134 2135 2136 2137 3101 3102 3103 3104 3105 3106 3111 3112 3113 3114 3115 3121 3122 3123 3131 3132 3133 3134 3141 3142 3143 3151 3152 3153 3154 3155 3156 3161 3162 3163 3164 3165 3166 3171 3172 3173 3174 3175 3176 3177 3178 3181 3191 3201 3202 3203 3204 3205 3206 3207 3211 3212 3213 3214 3215 3216 3217 3218 3219 3221 3222 3223 3224 3225 3226 3231 3232 3233 3241 3242 3243 3244 3245 3246 3301 3302 3303 3304 3305 3306 3311 3312 3313 3314 3315 3316 3317 3318 3319 3501 3502 3512 3514 3515 3516 3517 3511 3513 3518 3519 3735 3601 3602 3603 3604 3611 3612 3621 3622 3631 3632 3641 3642 3643 3651 3652 3653 3661 3662 3663 3664 3665 3666 3667 3668 3671 3672 3673 3681 3682 3683 3701 3702 3703 3711 3712 3713 3714 3721 3722 3723 3731 3732 3733 3734 3736 3801 3802 3803 3811 3812 3813 3814 3815 3816 3817 3818 3819 3820 3831 3832 3833 3834 3835 3836 3837 3838 3901 3902 3903 3904 3905 3906 3907 3908 3909 3910 3911 4001 4002 4003 4004 4005 4006 4007 4008 4009 4010 4021 4022 4023 4024 4025 4026 4027 4028 4029 4101 4102 4103 4104 4105 4106 4107 4108 4111 4112 4113 4114 4115 4116 4117 4118 4121 4122 4123 4124 4125 4126 4131 4132 4141 4142 4143 4144 4145 4201 4202 4203 4204 4205 4206 4301 4302 4303 4304 4305 4306 4307 4311 4312 4313 4321 4322 4323 4324 3401 3402 3403 3404 4401 4402 4403 4411 4412 4413 4414 4415 4416 4417 5101 5102 5103 5104 5111 5112 5113 5201 5202 5203 5204 5205 5211 5212 5213 5214 5215 5216 5217 5218 5219 5220 5221 5222 6101 6102 6201 6202 6301 6302 6303 6304 6305 6306 6307 6308 6309 6310 6311 6312 6313 6401 6402 6403 6404 6405 6501 6502 6503 6504 6505 6601 6602 6603 6611 6612 6613 6614 6615 6616 6617 6618 6619 6620 6701 6702 6801 6802 6803 6804 6805 6806 6807 6811 6812 6813 6814 6815 6816 6817 6901 6902 6903 6904 6905 6906 6911 6912 6913 6914 6915 6916 6917 6918 8101 8111 8121. 2 3 4 5 6 7. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21. 22 23 24 25 26 27 28. 29. Appendix 2:. Equation structure of the CGE Model. 21. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(22) A. Price Block. (1) PM i = (1 + ti ) PWM i QE i. ⎡ PWEi ⎤ ( 2) Ei = E0 ⎢ ⎥ ⎣ PEi ⎦ (3) Pi X i = PSi XSi + PM i M i ( 4) PDi XDi = PSi XSi + PEi Ei n. (5) PDi [1 − intri ] = PVAV i i + ∑ IO ji Pj j =1. n. ( 6) PCG CG = ∑ PID i i i =1. ( 7) F ( P1 , P2 ,...... Pn ) = P. B. Production Block (8) VAi = ADi [ Lbi i , K i1− bi ] (9) PL Li = bi PVAVA i i (10) PK Ki = (1 − bi ) PVAVA i i (11) VAi = Vi XDi 1 ri ri i. (12) XDi = ATi [qi E + (1 − qi ) XS ] ri i. 1. (13). Ei PE 1 − qi ri −1 =[ i ] XSi PDi qi. (14) X i = ACi [di M (15). − ai i. + (1 − di ) XS. − ai i. −. ]. 1 ai. 1 1+ a i. Mi PDi di =[ ] XSi PM i 1 − di. C. Demand Block n. (16) IOT j = ∑ IO ji XDi i =1. (17) PCD i i = ci (1 − mps )Y. 22. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(23) n. (18) Y = (1 − dtr )( ∑ PVAVA i i). (19) HS = mps Y. i =1. dtr )Y 1 − dtr ( 21) PGD i i = gi ( GR − GS ) ( 20) GR = TR + IDT + ( n. ( 22) TR = ∑ ti PWM i M i i =1. n. ( 23) IDT = ∑ intri PDi XDi i =1. ( 24) GS = gmps GR ( 25) IDi = inrCG i ( 26) PCG CG = HS + GS + FS n. n. i =1. i =1. ( 27) FS = ( ∑ PWM i M i ) − ( ∑ PWEi Ei ) D. Equilibrium Conditions ( 28) X i = IOTi + CDi + GDi + IDi n. ( 29). ∑L = L. *. i. i =1. (30) K i = K *. E. Variables PMi = PWMi = PWEi = PSi = P = PCG = PK = XSi = Mi = intri = VAi = = Ki. domestic price of imports, international price of imports, international price of exports, price of domestic good, aggregate price index, price of capital good, capital cost, domestic goods, imports, indirect tax rate, value added, capital demand,. ti = tariff rate, PEi = domestic price of exports, Pi = price of composite good, PDi = price of sectoral GDP, PVAi = price of value added, PL = wage rate, Xi = composite goods, XDi = sectoral output, Ei = exports, IOij = input output coefficients, Li = labor demand,. 23. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(24) ADi , ATi , ACi , IOTi ci mps dtr GR IDT gmps. bi = parameters of value added function, qi , ri = parameters of CET function, di , ai = parameters of Armington function = intermediate good demand, CDi = consumption demand, = parameter of Cobb-Douglas utility function, = marginal rate of saving, Y = disposable income, = direct tax rate, HS = household savings, = government revenue, TR = tariff revenue, = total indirect tax, GS = government savings, = marginal rate of saving of government,. CG GDi gi IDi inri TS L*. = = = = = = =. capital good, government consumption, parameter of Cobb-Douglas utility function of government, investment demand, Leontief coefficient of capital good, total savings, FS = foreign savings, labor supply, Ki* = capital supply in i industry.. 24. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics.

(25) Appendix 3. Simulation Result: Final Demand and total output Change Given the Alternative Price Change Scenario (Unit: Million Won). ηi. Industrial sector. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Anthracite coal Bituminous coal Crude petroleum Natural gas Quarrying Food & tobacco Textile, apparel, & leather Paper & wood products Coal products Gasoline Kerosene Light oil Bunker-c oil Liquefied petroleum gas Other petroleum products Chemicals & chemical products Stone, clay, & glass products Primary metal products Metal products and machinery Electric & electronic equipment Transportation equipment Misc. manufactured products Electric power Piped gas supply Steam & hot water supply Construction Wholesale, transportation, finance Public adm. & other services. dP I (%). -1.03026 0 0 0 0.03260 0 -1.45473 -1.57637 -0.52169 -3.29568 -0.27395 -0.11932 -0.11870 -0.10851 -0.12092 -0.13688 -12.0696 -2.00368 0 1.20667 -0.34791 0.15228 -1.44008 -0.82282 -1.00698 -0.61809 1.48908 -1.19924 -0.22129. Total. (dYi / Yi ) * 100 %. (dXi / X i ) * 100. Change. % Change. 0.83098 0.70655 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.58274 0.68840 0.64430 0.78472 0.36710 9.50518 -19.52139 44.19139 12.30098 -2.48433 0.64148 0.70988 1.32859 0.85410 0.58115 0.44898 0.51341 0.57157 4.57390 -2.08980 4.20834 0.65676 0.81520 0.51487 0.78392. -0.85612 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 -1.00144 -1.01566 -0.40939 -1.20983 -2.60399 2.32929 -5.24550 -1.33475 0.30042 -0.08781 -8.56798 -2.66207 0.00000 0.70126 -0.15620 0.07818 -0.82311 -3.76351 2.10438 -2.60115 0.97797 -0.97762 -0.11394 -0.54150. dYi Pi dYi dP4 Pi = : price elastisticity of each sector dPi Yi dP4 dPi Yi ~ ' −1 ˆ ' E I 2) dP = (I − A ) A dP : price changes in each sector for the alternative scenario 1). ηi =. 3) (dYi / Yi ) * 100 : final demand change in each sector for the alternative scenario 4) (dX i / X i ) * 100 : total output change in each sector for the alternative scenario. 25. 第五屆全國實證經濟學論文研討會 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan's Economic Empirics. -0.99908 -0.67220 -0.67755 -1.95796 0.05947 -0.10557 -0.93887 -1.07628 -0.65102 -0.24312 -1.98922 0.95793 -1.71825 -1.34211 -0.44247 -2.42875 -4.23453 0.14522 0.36159 0.42142 -0.13262 0.01082 -0.73075 -1.56737 0.05818 -2.90410 0.81326 -0.80018 -0.27007 -0.61879.

(26)

數據

Table 1.  Industrial Sectors Classification
Table 3. Sectoral Price impact of Crude Oil Price change
Table 4 reports the simulation results on final demand change, given the base  scenario for sectoral price change
Table 4.    Simulation Result: Final Demand and total output Change Given the  Base Price Change Scenario (Unit: Million Won)
+3

參考文獻

相關文件

(九) 西點麵糰/糊變化產品 (Paste Products)(To make products from yeast,puff, short or sable paste). (十) 藝術創作 Presentation Pieces (Can be made from sugar,

(九)西點麵糰/糊變化產品 (Paste Products)(To make products from yeast, puff, short or sable paste)。. (十)藝術創作 Presentation Pieces (Can be made from sugar,

(二)鹹味調理麵包製作 (Production of Savoury Products) (三)藝術創作 (Production of Artistic Piece). (四)甜麵包和裹油類麵包製作 Yeast Products (Sweet Yeast Dough

Meanwhile, the price indices of Miscellaneous Goods & Services and Health increased by 4.64% and 4.51% respectively, due to dearer prices of articles and products for

The above information is for discussion and reference only and should not be treated as investment

 Warrants are an instrument which gives investors the right – but not the obligation – to buy or sell the underlying assets at a pre- set price on or before a specified date.

If using electronic screen products is needed, parents should accompany children and provide timely guidance.. Parent

ƒ Visit the following page and select video #3 (How warrant works) to show students a video introducing derivative warrant, then discuss with them the difference of a call and a