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4MING-FANG YEN, TONY HSIU-HSI CHEN2,*, HSU-SUNG KUO, MEI-SHU LAI, KING-JEN CHANG
1 !"#$%&'()*
Institute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan. 2 !"#$%&'#()*+#,-./01#23 4567819
Graduate Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 19, Hsuchow Road, Taipei, Taiwan.
3 !"#$%&'()*
Bureau of National Health Insurance, Department of Health, Taiwan. 4 !"#$%&'()*
Department of Surgery, National Taiwan University Hopital, Taipei, Taiwan. * !Correspondence author.
!"#$%&'( !)*+,-./012345678%9:1(;<=>?@ (PCDP, Preclinical Detectable Phase) !""#$%&'()*+,-.*/012 !"#$%&'()*+(Mean Sojourn Time, MST) !"#$%&'()*+ !"#$%&'(1995199610 !"#$%12 !"#$%&2629 !"#$%&'()*+&',-31 !"#$%&'3 !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()*(preclinical incidence rate) !"5.7(0.0057/) !" !"#$%&'()*+ ,-./01234#56712#5489:;<=>)? !"#$%&'()*+,-./0121.90(95% CI:1.18-4.86) !"#$%&'( !"#$%& '#$ ()8 !"#$%&'()3 !"#$%&'()* !"#$%& '((interval cases) !"#$%&$%(1 !22.8%3 50%) !"#$"%&'()*+,-./0(3 !6.5%1 !3.1%) !"#$%&'()*+,-."/012345636% (RR=0.64, 95% CI=0.32-0.97) !"#$%&'()*(Markov chain model) !"#$%&'()*+,(interval cases) !"#$%&'( ! 199918(2)95-104)
!"#$%&'()*&+,-./&0123456
A Markov chain model to assess a multi-centered screening
project for breast cancer in Taiwan
The optimal screening frequency is highly dependent on the duration of pre-clinical detectable phase (PCDP, also called sojourn time). This parameter is difficult to estimate partly because the progression from PCDP to clinical phase is unobservable and partly because data on interval cases is hardly available from screening project. To tackle these problems, 2629 women of high risk group aged 35 and above identified until October 1996 from 12 large hospitals in Taiwan received their first screening exams, and 31 individuals were detected with breast cancer. Among 575 women who had returned for the second year screening exam, three persons were found with positive results. The progress intervals between stages of the disease were estimated using left-censored and interval-censored Markov chain models with a 6-year follow-up simulation. Results showed an annual pre-clinical incidence rate of 5.7 per 1000 for the high-risk group. The mean sojourn time (MST) was 1.90 years (95% CI=1.18-4.86). The proportion of interval case increased with the screening interval. A similar situation was also observed for the proportion of stage II+. Applying the Swedish Two-County trial experience, the one-year screening regimen would be able to reduce the mortality from breast cancers for 36% (RR=0.64, 95% CI=0.32-0.97). The breast cancer screening policy for high risk group initiated by department of health is justified by a high pre-clinical incidence rate estimated in this study. According to the estimated MST and the relationship between screening interval and the proportion of both interval case and mortality reduction, it is advisable that the screening interval for this high-risk group be no longer than two years. Finally, a left-censored and interval-censored Mark-ov chain developed in this study could be applied to other screening projects short of data on interval cases. (Chin J Public Health. (Taipei): 1999; 18(2):95-104)
!"871010 !"8838 !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-'(2 !"#$%&'(#)*+,-./ !"#$%(secondary prevention) !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()!*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#[1-6] !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'(#)( !"# ) !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'( %&)*$+, !"( !"#$% &'( !"#$%&'( !)*+% ) !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 (screen-detected) !"#$%&'( (interval cancers) !"#$%&' !"(clinical cases) !"#$% (refuser)[7] !"#$ !%&' !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,- ! !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,!"- !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 (preclinical screen-detectable phase, PCDP) PCDP !"#(clinical phase) ! PCDP !"!#$%&'()!
(sojourn time) !"#$%&'(Mean
sojourn time, MST) !"#$%&'
!"#$%&'()*+,-Chen(1996) !"#$%&' MST !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,- !(!"#$%&'()*+,-)* !"#$%&'()* +,-./ !"#$%PCDP !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,l e f t -censored !"#$%&'()*+,-PCDP !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#interval-censored !"# !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 uncersored cases !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,-left-cen-soredinterval-censored MST ! !"#$% !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-#$. !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()(compliance) (ethical aspect) !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !10-15 !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+,-./$ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&' !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./
!"#$%&'()*+,-(surro-gate endpoint) !"#$%#&'()
!"#$%&'()*+&,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'( )*+,-.% !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%!&'()*+,- !"#$%&'()*'+,- !" #$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$ %&5.94 !"#$ !"#$18.42 !"#$%& !"# $%3.92 !"#$% !"6.59[8] !"#$%&' !"#$%&'()*+,-,.
!"#$%$&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-.-/ !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'((mass screening) !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%(high risk group) ! !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&(menopause) !"
(age at menarch) !"#$%&'(age at
full term pregnancy) !"(parity)
(genetic factors) [9] !"#$ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*[10-14] !"#$%&'(#)!*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-.%& !"#$%&' !"#$%() !"#$1.52.5 !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./* !"#1.5 !"#$%&'(% !"#$%&'(1.6 !"#$ !"#$%&'(!)*+,- !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-&./ 35 !"#$%&'()*+( !"#$%&'()*+,-%. !"#$%&'()*+,-.
!"#$left-censoredinterval-cen-sored !"#$%&'((Markov Chain
model) !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%& 1. !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'()!*+, !"#$%&'()*+",- !"#$ 2. !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%(MST)!"#$%&'()*+,- ! 3. !"#$%&'%()&*% !"#$%&'()*+,# !"#$% &'( 4.2. !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+ 5.3. !"#$%&'()* !"#!$%&'()*+, 6.4. 5. !"#$%&'( !"#$%&'()*+,' !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'() !" !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,-. Hospital-based !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"[15] !"#$%&$'()&*+& !" #$% &' () !*+ !"#$%&'()*#+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !( !"#!"#"$#%&# ) !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'#&()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&"#'(')*+, !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#8510 !"#2629 !"#$%&'()*+,-./575 !"#$%&'(%)2629 ! 31 !"#$%&'()*+,-575 !"#$%&'()*!+,-! !"#$ !"%&'()*+ !"Interval-censoredLeft-censored !"# () !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'#()*+,# (0) !"#$%& (1) !"(2)
!"#$%&'()* !+, !"#$%&'(λ1 !"#$ !"# $%&'()*λ2( ) !Q !" !"#$%&'()*+#,- ! --- (1) P00(t)t !"#$%&#' !"#$%&'()*P01(t)t !"# $%&'()*+,-.$ !"#$%&'!()*+,-. !"#0 !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0
forward Kolmogorov equation !"#$%& dP(t)=P(t)Q P(0)=I !"#$%&' P(t)=exp(Q(t)) Q !" Q=Adiag(λ1,λ2)A-1 A A- 1Q !" #$%& (eigenvectors)t !"#$%P(t) P(t)= Adiag(exp(λ1(t),λ2(t))A-1
!"#$%& 'Cox and
Mill-er(1965)[16] !"#$%&'()*+
!"#λ1λ2 !"#
--- (2)
() !"#$%&'()
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + ,
(Markov chain model) !"#$%&'
!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&'() *+ !"#$%&'()"#*+%,( !"#$%&'(CoxMiller [16] !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()*+,-.'(/0123456789+ !"#$ ! !* !
!" 2598 (0 --> 0, age) P00(age)/(P00(age)+ P01(age))
31 (0 --> 1, age) P01(age)/ (P00(age)+ P01(age))
!" 572 (0 --> 0, x) P00(x) 3 (0 --> 1, x) P01(x) *age: !"#$%&'()x : !" !"#$%&'()*+ λ1 λ2 ! ! (0) (PCDP) (1) (2) 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2
--- (3) !"#$%&'()*+,left-censoredinterval-censored !"#$% !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#(0 0, age)2598 !"#$2598 !"#$%&' !"#$%&'()*+,"#$ !"#$%&'()*+,-"./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 left-censored ! !"#(0 1, 1)3 !"#$%&'()*+,-./) !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./$ !"#$%&'()*+ ,-./ !"#$%&'()*interval cen-sored !"#$%&'()*&'+ !"#$%&'()* --- (4) !"#$%&'()*+(,* !"#$%&'()*+,-./0
!"#$%&(4) !log
like-lihood !maximum likelihood method
(MLE) score functionobserved
infor-mation matrix !"#$MLE
!"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#[17] left-censoredinter-val-censored cases = ---(5) !"#$%&'()*+,-. quasi-likelihood !"# !"#$%&'()*+&',- !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'(x) !"#$t !"#$%&'()*+,P01(age)(age !"#$%&) !"#$%&' P01(x) !"#$%P02(x) !"#$ !" !#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&' !()*+,-./ !"#$%&' !()(efficacy) !"#$%&'( () !"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&'(MST) !"#$%&'()!*+,- !"#$%&'()*+,-./01 0.0057 (95 % !"0.0026 0.0088) !"#$%&'()*+570 ! λ01 λ13 !"#$% (0) !"#!(1) !"#!(3) λ12 λ24 !"#$ !"#!$%&(2) !"#!$%& (4) !"#$%&'()* 0 1 2 3 4 31
!"#$%&' !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*0.5250 (95% 0.2057 ~ 0.8443). !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$!%&'()*+,1.9048 (95% !"1.1844 ~ 4.8614 years) ! () !"#$%&'()*+,# (MST) !"#$%&' !()*+, !"#$%&'()*+,*-31% !"#$%&'%(&)%*+ !"#$%&'69% !"# !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+(,-.# !"#$%&'(0.1225 8 !"#$%&'()*+,-'./ ! " # $ % # & ' ( ) * + , 4.3203 3 !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*!"+,-! !"# !"#$%&'( () !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-. / !"#123 !"#$% !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./' !"#$%&'()*+!",- !"#$%&'()*"+,-./ ( !"#$%&) !"#$% !"#$%&'()*123 !22.8%, 38.3%50.0% (=43.3/ (43.3+43.4)) !"#$%&'()!" !"#$%&'( () !"#$%&'()* !+, !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$123 !"#$ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-.! !"#$(stage) !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,%& !"#$"#%&'($)($*( !"#$%&'()'*+,-$. !"#$%&'(( !"#) 23.7%, 6.5%, 4.9%3.1% !"# !"#$%&'%()*+,-. !"# !"#$%&'()"*+,-chi-square !"#$%&'()* 3 !"#chi-square 0.29 p-value0.96 !"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./* !"#$%&'()left-censored interval-censored !"#(Markov
chain model, LIMCM) !"Two-county
!"#$%&'()*+,-./ [18,19] !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789/0123456: !"#$%&95% ! 95% ! !"#$%&'( 0.0057 0.0016 0.00260.0088 !"#$%&'() 1.9048 1.18444.8614
!"#$%&'()*+,-./0%1234'56789 !"#$% !"#$%&'( ! ! ! !"(%) ! ! 0 28.5 22.8 1 3.3 11.5 2 3.3 11.4 3 3.2 11.3 4 3.2 11.2 5 3.2 11.2 6 3.3 11.1 28.5 19.5 67.7 ! 0 28.5 38.3 2 11.2 18.2 4 11.1 17.9 6 10.9 17.6 28.5 33.2 53.7 ! 0 28.5 50.0 3 21.9 22.0 6 21.4 21.4 28.5 43.3 43.4 * ---- 88.4 27.6 * !"#$%&'()*+,-!."#()/0*+ !"#$%& = !"#$%& !'($% !"#$% !"#$%&'()*+,- !"#$%&'( )* !" ! !"#!$ !"#$ (%) 1 3.1 2 4.9 3 6.5 23.7 !"#$%&'()*+,-. !" 2598 2600.443 31 28.557 !" 572 571.73 3 2.543 chi-square=0.29 !"#$%&'()*+,-(LIM-CM)Duffy(ICMCM) !"#$% ! Duffy !"#$%95% !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-#$. !"#$%&'()*+LIMCM !"#$%&'()*+,-.&' !"#$%&'()#*+,- !"#$%&' !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()570 !"# !"#$%&'(35 !"#$ !0.0004018 !"#$%&'( !"#$%&'()*+,-./01
!"#$%&'()%*+,-() !" !"#$%&'(#$%&)* !"#$%&'()*+$%, 8 !"#$%&$'()*+,3 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&(interval cases) ! !" !#$%&'()'*+,- !"#$%&'()*()(3!#$%&'()'*+,- 6.5%1 !3.1%) !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*89% ! !"#$%&'(75%[7] !" !"#$%&'()*+,-$./ !"#$%&'$ (%)*+,-7 !"#$%1 !"#$%& !"36% (RR=0.64, 95%CI=0.32-0.97) !"#$%&'()*+,!- !"#$%&'()*+,1.9!"#$%&'()*+,!- 2 !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"2
!"#$%&left-censoredinter-val censored !"#$%&'()*+
!"#$"%&'()*+,#$ !"#$%&'()*+,$-./ !"#$%&'()*Duffy ! !"#$%&'()*+,-. ! !"#$%&'(( BCDDP ) !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&'()*+,-( !"#$100% !"#$% !"#$%&'( )*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$ !"#$%&'()*+),- !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-!./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0 !"#$%&$'()*+,-./ left-censoredinterval-censored Markov Chain model (LIMCM) !Two-county
trial !"#$%&'()*+,-MST !"#$%&'()*+,Duffy
Markov Chain model
Age LIMCM Duffy Model
group λ1 λ2 MST λ1 λ2 MST 40-49 0.00147 0.5827 1.72 0.00148 0.5972 1.68 (0.00093-0.00234*) (0.2576-1.3181) (0.76-3.88) (0.0013-0.0017) (0.4616-0.7328) (1.37-2.17) 50-59 0.00150 0.3020 3.31 0.00150 0.3012 3.32 (0.0011-0.00207) (0.1883-0.4845) (2.06-5.31) (0.0014-0.0016) (0.2703-0.3401) (2.94-3.70) 60-69 0.0024 0.2610 3.83 0.0024 0.2610 3.83 (0.00182-0.00313) (0.1826-0.3729) (2.68-5.5) (0.0022-0.0026) (0.2398-0.2900) (3.45-4.17) *Delta-methodanti-log !"#$%&'("#)*+ !"#$%&'()* ! !" 95% ! 1 0.50 0.61 0.28 0.94 1.00 0.64 0.32 0.97 1.50 0.67 0.35 0.99 2.00 0.70 0.38 1.02 2.50 0.74 0.43 1.06 3.00 0.74 0.43 1.06 3.50 0.75 0.44 1.07 4.00 0.77 0.46 1.08
!"#$"%& !"#$%&'()*+,-. !"# !$%&'( )*+, !"#$%&#'$() *+ !"#$%&'()#*+,-# !"#$%&'()*+," !"#$%!&'()!*+" !"#$%&&'$()*+,- !"#$%!&'()#*+,! !"#$%&'()%* +%& !"#$%&'(!)*+,-.+ !"#$%&'()*+,- !
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