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探討電動車電池之發展趨勢-情境分析法之應用

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圖 2.4  2020 年混和動力車和電動汽車的市場規模將達到 1300 萬輛    資料來源:日本野村綜合研究所(2010)  二、車輛的歷史演化過程      (一)車輛的演化過程      根據產業演進觀點,新產品的推出有一定的推演過程,當然車輛的 發展,也是遵循一定的歷史演化過程,主要來自於科技的進步、石油 的價格、汙染法令的限制、以及需求的推動…等。由圖2.5可以明顯看 出,車輛的發展是由燃油車再進化成油電混和車、再進化成電動車, 最後進入燃料電池車的過程。(楊模樺,2010)
表 4.2  專家訪談重點摘要    問題  專家回答摘要  關鍵因素/特性  1. 哪 一 類 的 電 池較適用於電 動車,請從壽 命、放電率、 扭力、單價、、 各方面來作綜 合評估。  (1)鋰鐵電池安全性極高,沒有燃燒爆炸的危 險,又非常適合串聯並聯,是目前高功率車輛的電能最佳化選擇。(林荔弘) (2)因為磷酸鋰鐵電池有很好的壽命表現,而且電池瞬間爆發力(放電率)極高,在高低起伏的斜坡也可以輕鬆勝任,還有磷酸鋰鐵電池充電 速率比鉛酸電池快許多,可以快速將電池充到80 %,可以隨時準備出車。 (林荔弘)

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