洪銘謙 台灣能源結構最佳化策略分析
Analysis of Optimal Strategies for Energy Structure in Taiwan 摘要 隨著工業及經濟之蓬勃發展，世界能源需求持續成長，使得化石能源之消耗大 幅提升，另一方面，由於溫室效應及氣候變遷等環境議題備受關注，在兼顧經濟 發展與環境保育之雙重目標下，世界各國無不積極投入潔淨能源等相關技術之研 發，帶動了潔淨能源工業之崛起，而備受爭議的「核能」在2007 年時也被氣候 變遷跨政府小組 (IPCC) 列入有助於阻止暖化的再生能源之一，此舉雖造成國際 間極大之爭議，但已使得潔淨替代能源與核能在能源部門扮演的角色愈加受到重 視。台灣自產能源有限，2010 年能源進口依存度已高達 99.39 %，除面臨能源供 應安全性之問題外，也同時面對能源需求增加與溫室氣體減量之目標，而擁核與 反核之爭議，至今仍未獲得共識。本研究乃期望藉助優化分析之技術，考量各部 門能源成長需求、溫室氣體減量及開發核能等條件，同時引入碳權交易之概念， 建立台灣能源模型，對能源配置進行最佳化策略分析，探討在不同情境下，燃料 與電力需求供應中，化石能源、潔淨能源與核能之配比，同時了解各項能源成本 對能源結構造成之競合現象，及溫室氣體減量目標之達成性，藉以評估各項能源 政策之可行性。
According to blooming industrial and economical development, the global energy demand has undergone a steady growth. The consumption of fossil fuel has been raised significantly in the last decades. In addition, as climate change related environmental issues became a major concern. For approaching the dual goal of economical development and environmental protection, the clean energy
technologies are developed actively throughout the world. Besides, nuclear power has been regarded as an effective GHG mitigation option in IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007. Much attention has been paid to the roles these new renewable energy sources and nuclear power can play. In Taiwan, the indigenous energy
resources are deficient and therefore the dependence on imported fossil fuel in 2009 has reached 99.37 %. This situation endangers the stability of energy supply, also increases the difficulty for meeting energy demand growth and greenhouse gases emission reduction in the same time. In this study, an optimization model has been developed for deriving the optimal strategies for energy structure in Taiwan. With the objective of minimizing the total costs while taking into account the increasing demand of energy, development of nuclear energy and targets of GHG reduction, the model aims to identity the allocations of fossil fuel, cleaner energy sources, and nuclear power with respect to different scenarios. Feasibility analysis of several
energy structures has also been conducted according to tradeoffs among energy sources with different costs, together with the possibility of meeting the goals of GHG reduction.
