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房地產對我國總經濟活動之影響分析

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(21) BJjtB~.Jtftll • • •}J!n~.;;t~.?t~. ®*~29msr~~.Mi~,*. .. (21). ~p',llt i =. 30 or j '" 30'* . CR, '" 0 ". ®.~A4§.$rHJf • • ~ mjtB~~~ffijJ~mZ ttlflJ ". @(armJIl.f¥rlftl~l!lUit : 'l"lttj~·~~$r'Z:II~1fS~.fJ-·.{!Z1l¥ . m~~~.fJt~JiJT:ff~~~JfHfJ • •. •• ·&••~~~.~~.~f¥rl'.A~.Il • • • ·.~• • ~.·.A • •rl·~.~.H.f¥rl (~.rl)Z~.~~ • • ~~~.~~H o. ...... .. ~~ Hirschman ( 1958) mill : ~ •• ~.*~ ¥ . • • ~ • • *.~ftJ~~.·~.~.~~.lt~.H • • *.:ff~~~iWM ( • ~ Bear & Kerstenstzky ( 1964) . pp.411 436) ~I!fill~t&m~ (Open Mcxlel) ffi.:M:~1m*rj{mJl9HtJit~ , -·IRjj'ij~:ff1I£f(J.m~ ::5"~1m*Jj{{ffOJ-­ ~ (1ni'£llHiHl 'i!i!OI'fnHl ' ~l~j{*tBJilt ' #it~iIiIJ '.l:I:Hm*$r~ ) mAtf;J4: • ~lj.*t.tMm~ (Semi Closed Mcxlel ) AJ:~ ~~Jit.Eljllllol;J,*llrmsr~ ( Household Sector) mAtf;Jt.£ • ElJ~*,MMm~?t$Jl*~$ r~.;M;'tt.£&gj\r~Zf!lIi~#lIIlffi • 'l"9rt.£$r~~t.£~.II¥!:t!UI~~fIt~~~ ... ~PJjt&.~*" @ffiwlltt~&*1'i . tiE@~t.~. ' ~ ••• t\.0:a: . llHHfl .• ~~! r ~~~ ( Normalization) J . iJ)\I!P=.·f5].~lll " @~[l'i](fJfft.HIl: Cella.G. (1984) . pp.73-84firili : ~.&t<rJ.IIJ'H'lJtffitJn~~*1~.Il • • ~ • stEt9::ff ~*(fJ • • ·~ll-.(fJ~~ffi.~~~M~ • • t" ®Jt~JIttt. r g€.~~tt~J!f:$f.HJ J iJ)\:ffffi'l"~'iII'. #~·E~~#.~.H • • *o.-.&~r. 0. 0. 0. *=fjee -- , 9='X$ffi' : l.rlJij1r. ( 1976) ... fF~" 2£~.. -~Jilt*J!;~~mJ.¥il~ilj!(_. •••.~~t1l:ll' 9fl9t· (1986) .. ~22-26Ji. :t9:A~ili7Hfi&~.m ~. .. ~1iI(fJ1iT1:i=1£."1lf;~~11j ~. JJlJIUll!~tlf!:ff~~. 0. - • • Jt~"~ilf1l:· ittR*ftJ·. ~37~~lM. • ~186 -218Ji. 3_ _ ( 1990) . • ~iI.~ljJHffi..~Z~~~~*7Hff ' ~~ij!filf~ . ~30M . ~79 125Ji 1971 ' 1976 ' 1981 ' 1986) '~~IIIl.*• • 5.*'1;• • ( 1993) . it'IIHtHi* ' § ~ ( ~{:~) 6. • • ¥ ( 1994) • mJt~·t1ljj}:lJ:~nU~ • ~*~jIJ&.~.fIl.l0ii] 7JUff~ ( 1991) •• -'J!I!J • 7Jc4'ilil!!iit-± ( ~=l!!ii) 8.JtXft (1987) • ~~~&,lt:lf:. ' • •BJJ.¥rtlJ&· ~18~~2M ' ~59-71Ji" 9.Jt*~ ( 1991) . • mtrA~Zllt4Mm.~:t9:A • .§!ili?t,fff , .*~M!I! ~18~~2M • ~1 43Ji lo..tXtI ( 1980) ••• mJ.¥.~tltilltZilf1l: . X~**liA±~X 1l.~~~ 1994) • mjtB'§!~*ftbDt1~~Jilt*(fJ~ •• 9='ilfl!lt~ij!filflit'" 12.iJ&~. ( 1990) ,mjtB~~t!:!:w· liiJltilil!!iifi ( ~-~ ) 13. _ _ (1992) • ~1!ilII{E't:~M!fii~rlZilf~ , ,#it!l~itt;;;tilf~~. 14.• it... ~ilfJil . !If{f:.Z r • • IUUIHJ J fl. " 15.it~1!lt (1994) . mJ.¥it~~lt.fflIJJJ,§!.Z~ij!f • •*,fff· • • ~ij!filf1l:· ~17~~lM' ~22-28Ji 16.it~1!lt ( 1994) • 1993{f:.• • jtB~.#!Nj{~ilf1E • • 17.,#itW ( 1988) . • •Jt~mJ.¥.~.fij1tilf1E l8.ilfIilf (1979) •• ~.*J!..1~"rAN.· 9='IU!l!ij!f*.ilIfi)c~· ~77-91Ji \9."jftii~ (1991) . -*$jtB~.:J'(;$~Z~!~.**,fff . 9='JJ**liA±ilIfix aJ.f!J*~ ( 1986) . ~1l.~.J!.~~R~zlJJJffi . • •BJ~rtlll . ~18~~2M • ~43 56Ji 2l.lIfS[l'i] (1978) ••• m~it~&~jJt<rJ , • • ~~ '~33M • ~1-15Ji 4.~~". 0. (. 0. 0. 0. '. (. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -'~X$ffi':. 1.. Abrams. C. ( 1966) • Man's Struggle for Shelter in an Urbanizing World.MIT Paperback Printing (Zed).

(22) 2. Albert. W. (1954)," The Strategy of Economic Development" ,CH.6 NBER : New York. 3. . ( 1962 ). "Business Cycle Residential C,onstruction Cycle. and the Mortgage Market" • Journal of. Political Economy, Vol.70 No.3. p276. 4. Barras. R. & Ferguson D. (1987). "Dynamic Modeling of the Building Cycle" • Environment and Planning. Vo1.3. p89 -131. 5. Barton A. Smith & William P. Te..<;arek (1991 ). "Housing Prices and Regiolal Real Estate Cycles ket Adjustments in Houston Area, AREUEA, Vol. 19 No.3. pp.353. Mar­. 367. 493 - 520.. 6. Bear. W. & Kerstenstzky I. (1964). Import Substitution and Industrialization in Brazil, American Eco­ nomic Review. No.54. pp.411. 436.. 7. Buckley (1983) ... Housing and Economy Popular Myths" • AREUA, Vo1.10 8. Burns & Grebler (1982). "Construction Cycle in the USA since World War. Il ... AREUA. Vo1.10.. 9. Case. Karf E. (1993). "The Real Estate Cycle and Economy : Conseqences of Mas..<;achusetts Boom of 1 984. 1987". Urban Studies. Vol.29· pp.171-183.. 10. Cella. G. (1984) ... The Input - Output Measurement of the Interindustry Linkages" • Oxford Bulletin of. Economic and Statistics. Vol.46 No. I. pp73 84. 11. Chow. I. Chang. (1994). ARIMA Model of Residential Construction Cycle in Taiwan, pp.213-217.. IZ Colean. M. L. & Newcomb R. (1952). The Record and Potential New York. 13. Dauten. C. (1972). Business Cycles and Forecasting, (2ed) p289. 14. David, & l,ouis (1953) ... The Structure of the Housing Market" • Quarterly Journal Economics (. VI ) .. 15. Dennis. G. & Julia L. (1985) ... Developing Regional Indicators Variables: A Study of Methods" , Pre­ sented at the Missouri Vvalley Economic Association Conference (march) • pp.7 - 9. 16. Derksen, J. B. D. (1940). "I,ong Cycles in Residential Building: An Explanation" • Econometrica. Vol. 8. pp.97. 116.. 17. Frumkin. Norman. (1990). Guide tolndicators, M. E. Shsrpe Inc. 18. Grebler (1960) • Housing Issues in Economic Stabilization Policy. NBER : New York. 19. Geoffery. M. (1959). Business Cycle Indicators Volume I Contribution to the Analysis of Current Busi­ ness C,onditions. Princeton U. Press. 20. ___ ( 1994 ). .. The Propositions in UK Housing Macro - economics : An Overview of Eighties and Ear­ ly Nineties" • Diss - cussion Papers in Urban & Regional Economics University of Reading. 21. Granger, C. W.J. (1969) ... Investigatng Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods" • Econometrica. Vol. 37. pp. 424 - 429. i2 Grenadier. R. Steven (1995). .. The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles" • Journal of Real Estate Finance. and Economics. Vol.lO No.2. pp.95-119. 23. Guttontag. J . M. (1961). .. The Short Cycle in Residential Construction" • American Economic Review.. Vol.51 No.3. pp.25. 47.. ?4. Hansen. A. H. (1951). Business Cycle and National Income. p40.. 2i Harnish. Mcrae (1994) • Homeeconomics. Search 20. pp.8 -11. ai. Hicks. J. K. (1950). A Contribution to the Thcory of the Trade Cycle.. 'll. Hugh. O. Nourse (1995). "Measuring Business Real Property Performance" • The Journal of Real Estate. Research. Vol. 9 N04. pp.431 - 453. 28. Jaffee. D. M. & Rosen. K. T. (1978). "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Stabilization Policies for the. Mortgage and Housing Markets" • The Journal of Finance. Vol.33, pp.933 946.. 29. Keynes. I.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money. MacMiUan (New York.

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(24) ... $r~$. NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10. NO. ~. "iii: t(qiii:. ~i¥.. 11. 1JoTtltJl, tU4&:j:llft ~ • .\'I, !ilt;&&I&t\iJl, **f&:*ll.\'l, ~ , ~ ~ .\'I, &: EO[llli')::l:lItti Jl, f.tIW-l!4. 12 13. )t1lB1t*~.\'I,. A.Jfi~&m~'UIt. l11W1JUI.\'l, 4hlt• •4t.Jl,. • 14 i 15. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30. :::-I. 1m". •• ••. )t fl!!~t; &: .~. '" Jl,. *)fj1ll:~. 'lltf-if.\'l, &)t1tlrlt $. 11:.. I. iI_I~ iI_I~. :~b~Lf:!l.. 1Il:h ~~&§**. :im M13fll jj iif j!}j.\'l,Ji'R )t1lBH1H9} m:l1l!.Jl. At: l1-29$r'J.l.j:~tJil!; ( 1986). I. 'if~IJ!ll.~~'Hll~$mJtH'!l[liJ 2~30$m~*liff~~Jtt1mZm:l1l!.if$r' 0. 0. 29' 99' 123",.,"m• • •~_,.tz._lt~~It!ffi~ _ _ - - - -(Pft.=) ---,--------------,--------­ .... 29$M~.&~M. W$M_.&~M. I. 123.M_.&:~.. J. j. 2. 9)t. fl!!. Hit. 113 119 120. I.

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Taking National No.5 Highway and Ilan area as objects of research, this study explores the variability of the impact of on Ilan area before and after the opening of snow