Stability of the Jobs to Sales Ratio by Capacity Utilization in the Input-Output Model

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Stability of the Jobs to Sales Ratio by Capacity

Utilization in the Input-Output Model

Ya-Yen Sun

Assistant Professor

Department of Kinesiology, Health, and Leisure Studies (DKHL)

National University of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

September 3, 2007

Presentation for the Advances in Forest and Natural Resource Management Symposium

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Input-Output (I-O) Analysis in

Recreation & Tourism

‡

Estimate economic changes resulting from spending

associated with recreation/ tourism activities

‡

Total economic impacts

= demand changes * multipliers * economic ratios = Ê(I-A)

-1

Y

Total jobs = spending * sales multipliers * jobs to sales ratio

‡

Assumptions

„

constant multipliers and economic ratios

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Factors that influence the stability of

multipliers and economic ratios

‡

technological changes

‡

price changes

‡

returns to scale

‡

trade patterns

(Rose & Miernyk, 1989; West, 1995).

‡

capacity utilization (CU)

“the ratio of actual used

(consumed) products to the

total available products”

(Nelson, 1989)

¾

Lodging

¾

Transportation

¾

Entertainment

¾

Food and beverage

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Purposes of this study

Study subject: Taiwan Tourist Hotel

1.

Jobs to sales ratio:

Empirically test the stability of the jobs to sales ratio in relation

to capacity utilization (occupancy rates)

2.

Direct job estimation

Compare job estimates (direct effect) based on the standard I-O

analysis and predicted job ratio by occupancy rates

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Data

Panel data:

Monthly Taiwan tourist hotels operational data from

1999 to 2005 (84 data points)

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Analytical framework

P

1

*

X

J

price

1

*

efficiency

labor

price

room

1

*

rooms

occupied

jobs

sales

jobs

(JR)

ratio

sales

to

jobs

The

=

=

=

=

T

X

capacity

total

rooms

occupied

(OR)

rate

Occupancy

=

=

OR = occupancy rate JR = jobs to sales ratio J: jobs X: occupied rooms P: room price T: hotel capacity

)

(

OR

1

*

T

*

P

J

JR

=

=

f

OR

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Analytical framework

Because

lnJR = lnJ – lnP – lnT – lnOR

Hypothesis 1: ln (jobs to sales ratio) = f [ln(occupancy rate)]

Hypothesis 2: ln (jobs) = f [ln(occupancy rate)]

Hypothesis 3: ln (room price) = f [ln(occupancy rate)]

Hypothesis 4: ln (hotel capacity) = f [ln(occupancy rate)]

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Analytical framework

I: Standard I-O analysis

Direct jobs = sales at t

2

* jobs to sales ratio at t

1

= Number of units sold at t

2

* price ratio between t

1

& t

2

* labor efficiency at t

1

II: Our approach for the estimation of jobs

Direct jobs

= Number of units (services) sold at t

2

* labor efficiency at t

2

1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 Xt Jt * Pt Pt * Xt Pt * Xt Jt * ) Pt * Xt ( = =

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Result

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of monthly tourist hotel operation in Taiwan

(1999~2005)

Monthly data Min. Max. Mean Std.

Deviation

Coeff. of variation (CV)

Total available rooms 18,724 20,977 20,117 617 3%

Occupied rooms / month 136,814 485,271 386,600 57,682 15%

Occupancy rate 22% 78% 63% 9% 14%

Average room price (NT$) 2,301 3,152 2,903 130 4%

Total employees 6,013 7,694 7,198 295 4%

Jobs to NT$ million sales

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Objective 1:

Jobs to sales ratio and occupancy rate

B

Std.

Error Std. Coeff. t Sig.

(Constant) 1.324 0.013 98.250 0.000

log of occupancy rate -1.041 0.029 -0.915 -36.508 0.000

1999 0.119 0.015 0.213 8.177 0.000

2000 0.089 0.014 0.159 6.257 0.000

2001 0.090 0.014 0.160 6.211 0.000

2002 0.061 0.015 0.109 4.226 0.000

2003 0.039 0.016 0.069 2.442 0.017

Dependent Variable: log of jobs to sales ratio ; F = 323.8173 (p = 0.000), Adjusted R2 =

0.959

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Objective 1:

Room price and occupancy rate

B

Std.

Error Std. Coeff. t Sig.

(Constant) 8.044 0.010 779.348 0.000

log of occupancy rate 0.137 0.022 0.507 6.346 0.000

2003 -0.051 0.011 -0.388 -4.846 0.000

Dependent Variable: log of room price ; F = 49.5920 (p = 0.000), Adjusted R2 = 0.539

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Objective 1:

Room employees and occupancy rate

B

Std.

Error Std. Coeff. t Sig.

(Constant) 8.905 0.008 1,131.088 0.000

log of occupancy rate 0.122 0.015 0.501 8.180 0.000

1999 0.050 0.008 0.415 6.356 0.000

2000 0.046 0.008 0.387 5.944 0.000

2001 0.072 0.008 0.605 9.287 0.000

2002 0.065 0.008 0.541 8.298 0.000

Dependent Variable: log of employees ; F = 38.4502 (p = 0.000) , Adjusted R2 = 0.693

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Objective 2:

Job estimates by scenario 1

50%

60%

(base level)

70%

Pct change from 60% to 50% Pct change from 60% to 70%

Scenario 1: Per million dollar spending in the accommodation sector

Jobs to sales ratio 7.73 6.40 5.45 21% -15%

Room price $2,835 $2,906 $2,968 -3% 2%

Employee number 6,771 6,923 7,055 -2% 2%

Labor efficiency1

(J/X) 0.022 0.018 0.016 18% -13%

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6.4 5.5 5.9 7.0 7.7 4 5 6 7 8 9 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Occupancy rate Jo b s p er N T $ m illio n sp en d in g

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Objective 2:

Job estimates by scenario 2

Occupancy rate

50% 60%

(base level)

70%

Scenario 2: Per 1,000 occupied rooms (e.g., a special event)

Room sales ( NT$ million’s) $2.84 $2.91 $2.97

Direct jobs using fixed ratio (standard I-O) 18.1 18.6 19.0

Direct jobs using predicted ratio 21.9 18.6 16.2

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18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 21.9 20.1 18.6 17.3 16.2 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%

occupancy rates

Jobs

pe

r 1,000 oc

c

upi

e

d room

s

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Conclusion

‡

Jobs to sales ratio is influenced by capacity utilization

„

Employee number does not increase/ decrease in direct proportion to

sales.

‡

Standard I-O model will give biased estimates for

scenarios involving variation in CU

ƒ

Overestimate jobs when CU is high

ƒ

Underestimate jobs when CU is low

ƒ

For every 10% change in CU, the jobs per million dollar ratio fluctuates

around 15~20%.

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Conclusion

Implications for the managerial agency

„

The choice of resource allocation for the

recreation / tourism vs. others

„

Subsidization to the service entities during a

tourism downtime

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Thank you for your listening.

數據

Figure 1.  The Conceptual Framework of Capacity Utilization and I-O Analysis (Sun, 2007)

Figure 1.

The Conceptual Framework of Capacity Utilization and I-O Analysis (Sun, 2007) p.4
Table 1. Descriptive statistics of monthly tourist hotel operation in Taiwan  (1999~2005)

Table 1.

Descriptive statistics of monthly tourist hotel operation in Taiwan (1999~2005) p.10

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