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The depopulation trend and possible impact on the urban housing choices of young professionals in Taiwan

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(1)

Assistant Professor, T.Y. Chao

Master Student, Y.C. Tsai

(2)

Conclusion

Method

Housing choice

Depopulation

Introduction

Literature Review

(3)

3 3

• How population impact urban development ?

EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest

• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon

• Almost all developed countries face the problem .

World Trends

• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change

population structure

• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.

• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress

(4)

• How population impact urban development ?

EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest

• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon

• Almost all developed countries face the problem .

World Trends

• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change

population structure

• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.

• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress

(5)

5 5

• How population impact urban development ?

EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest

• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon

• Almost all developed countries face the problem .

World Trends

• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change

population structure

• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.

• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress

(6)

explore how "depopulation"

trend affects urban space in

Taiwan.

This study assume that

intention toward fertility is a

relatively important factor

for young couples’ housing

choices in urban areas.

• How population impact urban development ?

EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest

• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon

• Almost all developed countries face the problem .

World Trends

• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change

population structure

• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.

• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress

(7)

▫ The general definition of "depopulation" :

– "a trend that the average lifetime fertility rate of women in

the general population falls below the population

replacement level in the long-term".

– the total fertility rate declines and results in juvenile

population are declining constantly.

– When total fertility rate is lower than 1.3 people, the

country has entered the lowest-low fertility stage (Kohler,

Billari and Ortega, 2002).

▫ In the past three decades

– According to United Nations statistics, the world average fertility rate (AFR) of women

7 1965-1970

•5.0 Children

…… …… 2005-2010

• 2.6 Children

-48%

(8)

▫ Developed countries

encountered.

▫ Japan is the first country that

entered the "depopulation" era

in Asia.

▫ Taiwan became the lowest

fertility rate country in the world.

1951 •7.04 Children 1985 • <2.1 2002 • the lowest-low fertility stage 2009 • 1.0 Children

year

replacement level

(9)

– The Adjustment Process

(A change in socio-economic structure)

This theory holds that changes in social structures resulting from such things as increases in educational levels, income increases, and other changes in the fabric of the social and economic structure are the main

reasons that have led to a declining fertility rate.

– The innovation diffusion process

(Internal factors: Fertility concept changed)

This theory holds that the main reason for the spread of depopulation is a change in attitudes toward fertility. (ex: tempo effect)

9

• There are two explanations (Sun and Ting 1988):

fertility

intention

low total

fertility rate

(10)

• The Adjustment Process :

• Individualism

• The rise of Feminism

• Female educational advancements

• Family Planning

• Poor parenting environment

Social trend and policy

• Large divisions in the social and economic environment

• Global capitalism has brought about fierce market competition.

• To maintain a standard of living

• Increase in the female labor ratio

Economic

• Religion

• Legalized abortion

• The tempo effect

(11)

• The traditional concept of "raising of children to take care of us in our old

age" has declined.

• The focus of personal life processes has changed: Traditional social values

express a belief that fertility is a process that women must go through in

their lives.

• The condition of people’s insisting of having at least one boy child has

reduced

The concept of fertility has changed

• People are choosing to marry younger, at an older age or not at all

because of extending their education or due to other factors.

Attitudes toward marriage have changed

• Becker (1976, 1981) suggested that couples will choose to reduce the

number of children they have in order to improve the quality of life and

extend their resources for the children they choose to have.

The concept of parenting has changed

11

(12)

• The "depopulation" phenomenon will change

population structure

and will

not only have an impact on national economic performance and

competitiveness, but also on

land use and urban development (CIA World

Factbook, (2007).

• The "depopulation" trend could derive from a low fertility rate and result in

consequences such as labor shortages and the aging population that most

developed countries have already encountered.

 Different types of people have different life style and needs

 Urban planning must be based on changes in population

structure, and those engaged in population analysis must

consider public facilities, residential needs, schools, and

other related needs.

 Urban planners believe that the study of demographic

composition helps to estimate space requirements of

different housing and also demands for public facilities.

 Therefore, the phenomenon of depopulation will affect the

(13)

Internal factors

– Family and personal characteristics

such as education, home purchase experience, occupation, household size (family structure), and so on.

– Major events in the life process

including householder’s age, marital situation, fertility situation, residence time, immigration times, future career planning, and so on.

– Economic capacity and affordability

Including total family income, housing prices, the loan interest rate, amount and duration of loans, government subsidies, the possibility of value-added housing, and so on.

External factors

– Housing types

Including building age, community management, building structure, indoor residential density, indoor ventilation, lighting, and so on.

– Living environment

Including such things as mixed land use or pure residential use, number of

floors, noise situation, neighborhood relations situation, building maintenance and management, and so on.

– Convenience of location

Such as distance or convenience to go to school, work, shop, the quality of the

(14)

• we can determine that the factors associated with life course and family structure are a series of depopulation and housing choices • and that the factors regarding life course and family structure are

affected by fertility intention. literature review

• Family fertility intention is based on rational choice, and in order to derive the possible face of urban living spaces in the future, factor analysis is conducted to explore whether family fertility intention affects housing preferences and choices.

• This assumption must also be based on an assumption that the

population is continuing.

→we hypothesize that depopulation will only be a short term situation in the demographic cycle and that it will not continue. → we investigate the major groups, 20 to 30 year olds with high education levels, who are believed to have led to "depopulation in order to verify "depopulation" in Taiwan and to analyze it.

hypothesis

•sources:50 questionnaires.

• subjects:young professionals who attend National Cheng Kung University.(master students) Research data fertility intention depopulation life course and family structure housing choices

(15)

15 Innovation diffusion process

Communication effects Parenting ideas Marriage attitude The concept of fertility

Depopulation

Household characteristics (family structure & family life course)

Housing

Choice

Living environment Economic Location environment Housing Type Socio-economic structure adjustment Process Women labor Standard of living Social competiti -on Socioeco -nomic status Division of work Individu-alism Religion Education Abortion tempo effect Infertility Childcare environm -ent Feminism

(16)

• We can infer depopulation in Taiwan

will not worsen

but that this

phenomenon will

remain for a long time

– External factors (such as social competition, standard of living, the rise of feminism, and individualism) could have

significant impacts on decision makers’ internal factors (such as the changing concepts about childbearing, marriage and parenting).

 All of these results could lead to depopulation.

– Average ideal number of children is 1.95, which is higher than the current total fertility rate

of women in Taiwan.

 This result shows that the trend of depopulation is not significant within young professionals.

– Shows the gap between the ideal number of children and the actual number of children

planned.

• In this context, the family structure of these young professionals will change to nuclear families and families without children, which means a smaller family scale, delays in family lives reflecting the tempo effect ( marriage or having children), and results in extensions status of singles and couples without children. All of these changes have an

(17)

17

• Household characteristics affect housing choice:

– Economic burden was determined to be the most significant factor impacting

housing choice, and the second significant factor was found to be household

characteristics which include family size, living space and future career plans.

– The first priority motivation for housing choice was found to “pursue an

independent life and leave the original family” , the second was a need for a

“better living environment” , and the third was for “work convenience”.

– “Buying houses in order to have space for children”, “because family and

friends live nearby” , or “for good school districts” were not in the top three

motivational factors for young professionals, and this result shows

how

(18)

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