Assistant Professor, T.Y. Chao
Master Student, Y.C. Tsai
Conclusion
Method
Housing choice
Depopulation
Introduction
Literature Review
3 3
• How population impact urban development ?
EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest
• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon
• Almost all developed countries face the problem .
World Trends
• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change
population structure
• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.
• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress
• How population impact urban development ?
EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest
• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon
• Almost all developed countries face the problem .
World Trends
• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change
population structure
• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.
• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress
5 5
• How population impact urban development ?
EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest
• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon
• Almost all developed countries face the problem .
World Trends
• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change
population structure
• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.
• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress
explore how "depopulation"
trend affects urban space in
Taiwan.
This study assume that
intention toward fertility is a
relatively important factor
for young couples’ housing
choices in urban areas.
• How population impact urban development ?
EX new immigrants, aging population, depopulation Interest
• In recent decades, one of the globalization phenomenon
• Almost all developed countries face the problem .
World Trends
• The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious.Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world. • The "depopulation" phenomenon will change
population structure
• It will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development.
• EX: Idle land use in Culture and education District. Stress
▫ The general definition of "depopulation" :
– "a trend that the average lifetime fertility rate of women in
the general population falls below the population
replacement level in the long-term".
– the total fertility rate declines and results in juvenile
population are declining constantly.
– When total fertility rate is lower than 1.3 people, the
country has entered the lowest-low fertility stage (Kohler,
Billari and Ortega, 2002).
▫ In the past three decades
– According to United Nations statistics, the world average fertility rate (AFR) of women
7 1965-1970
•5.0 Children
…… …… 2005-2010• 2.6 Children
-48%
▫ Developed countries
encountered.
▫ Japan is the first country that
entered the "depopulation" era
in Asia.
▫ Taiwan became the lowest
fertility rate country in the world.
1951 •7.04 Children 1985 • <2.1 2002 • the lowest-low fertility stage 2009 • 1.0 Children
year
replacement level– The Adjustment Process
(A change in socio-economic structure)
This theory holds that changes in social structures resulting from such things as increases in educational levels, income increases, and other changes in the fabric of the social and economic structure are the mainreasons that have led to a declining fertility rate.
– The innovation diffusion process
(Internal factors: Fertility concept changed)
This theory holds that the main reason for the spread of depopulation is a change in attitudes toward fertility. (ex: tempo effect)9
• There are two explanations (Sun and Ting 1988):
fertility
intention
low total
fertility rate
• The Adjustment Process :
• Individualism
• The rise of Feminism
• Female educational advancements
• Family Planning
• Poor parenting environment
Social trend and policy
• Large divisions in the social and economic environment
• Global capitalism has brought about fierce market competition.
• To maintain a standard of living
• Increase in the female labor ratio
Economic
• Religion
• Legalized abortion
• The tempo effect
• The traditional concept of "raising of children to take care of us in our old
age" has declined.
• The focus of personal life processes has changed: Traditional social values
express a belief that fertility is a process that women must go through in
their lives.
• The condition of people’s insisting of having at least one boy child has
reduced
The concept of fertility has changed
• People are choosing to marry younger, at an older age or not at all
because of extending their education or due to other factors.
Attitudes toward marriage have changed
• Becker (1976, 1981) suggested that couples will choose to reduce the
number of children they have in order to improve the quality of life and
extend their resources for the children they choose to have.
The concept of parenting has changed
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• The "depopulation" phenomenon will change
population structure
and will
not only have an impact on national economic performance and
competitiveness, but also on
land use and urban development (CIA World
Factbook, (2007).
• The "depopulation" trend could derive from a low fertility rate and result in
consequences such as labor shortages and the aging population that most
developed countries have already encountered.
Different types of people have different life style and needs
Urban planning must be based on changes in population
structure, and those engaged in population analysis must
consider public facilities, residential needs, schools, and
other related needs.
Urban planners believe that the study of demographic
composition helps to estimate space requirements of
different housing and also demands for public facilities.
Therefore, the phenomenon of depopulation will affect the
•
Internal factors
– Family and personal characteristics
such as education, home purchase experience, occupation, household size (family structure), and so on.
– Major events in the life process
including householder’s age, marital situation, fertility situation, residence time, immigration times, future career planning, and so on.
– Economic capacity and affordability
Including total family income, housing prices, the loan interest rate, amount and duration of loans, government subsidies, the possibility of value-added housing, and so on.
•
External factors
– Housing types
Including building age, community management, building structure, indoor residential density, indoor ventilation, lighting, and so on.
– Living environment
Including such things as mixed land use or pure residential use, number of
floors, noise situation, neighborhood relations situation, building maintenance and management, and so on.
– Convenience of location
Such as distance or convenience to go to school, work, shop, the quality of the
• we can determine that the factors associated with life course and family structure are a series of depopulation and housing choices • and that the factors regarding life course and family structure are
affected by fertility intention. literature review
• Family fertility intention is based on rational choice, and in order to derive the possible face of urban living spaces in the future, factor analysis is conducted to explore whether family fertility intention affects housing preferences and choices.
• This assumption must also be based on an assumption that the
population is continuing.
→we hypothesize that depopulation will only be a short term situation in the demographic cycle and that it will not continue. → we investigate the major groups, 20 to 30 year olds with high education levels, who are believed to have led to "depopulation in order to verify "depopulation" in Taiwan and to analyze it.
hypothesis
•sources:50 questionnaires.
• subjects:young professionals who attend National Cheng Kung University.(master students) Research data fertility intention depopulation life course and family structure housing choices
15 Innovation diffusion process
Communication effects Parenting ideas Marriage attitude The concept of fertility
Depopulation
Household characteristics (family structure & family life course)Housing
Choice
Living environment Economic Location environment Housing Type Socio-economic structure adjustment Process Women labor Standard of living Social competiti -on Socioeco -nomic status Division of work Individu-alism Religion Education Abortion tempo effect Infertility Childcare environm -ent Feminism• We can infer depopulation in Taiwan
will not worsen
but that this
phenomenon will
remain for a long time
:
– External factors (such as social competition, standard of living, the rise of feminism, and individualism) could have
significant impacts on decision makers’ internal factors (such as the changing concepts about childbearing, marriage and parenting).
All of these results could lead to depopulation.
– Average ideal number of children is 1.95, which is higher than the current total fertility rate
of women in Taiwan.
This result shows that the trend of depopulation is not significant within young professionals.
– Shows the gap between the ideal number of children and the actual number of children
planned.
• In this context, the family structure of these young professionals will change to nuclear families and families without children, which means a smaller family scale, delays in family lives reflecting the tempo effect ( marriage or having children), and results in extensions status of singles and couples without children. All of these changes have an
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