高應科大人文社會科學學報 2009 年 7 月
ISSN 1815-0373 第六卷第一期 P103-116
Agenda-setting Analysis of Referendum Issue
during 2004’s Taiwan Presidential Campaign
Tzong-horng Dzwo
Assistant Professor, Department of Applied Foreign Languages, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences
Abstract
A review of the past literature on agenda-setting theory suggests that researchers have endeavored to investigate the ability of mass media in shaping public agenda or the effects of inter-media agenda-setting regarding the number of news stories or the attributes of news stories covered by the media. Based on the first and second level of agenda-setting theoretical concepts, this study adopted “referendum” issue, one of the most salient as well as controversial political issues during 2004’s Taiwan presidential election campaign, to examine the bi-variate relationship between the media and the EBBs agendas. The findings revealed that public agenda significantly corresponded with the media agenda in terms of four attributes agendas, Politics, Lawfulness, Taiwan Unification or Independence, and Ethnicity. The research hypotheses were supported, which further consolidated second-level agenda-setting theory.
Keywords: agenda-setting, presidential election, referendum, Taiwan
Background of the study
Agenda-setting theory has evolved since the early 1970s and thus has been empirically tested in numerous studies, in which salience and attributes of media stories were proved to have considerable impact on the public’s perception of the important issues, especially during election campaigns (McCombs & Shaw, 1972; McCombs, 1997). On the one hand, the more news coverage of an issue received by the media, the higher that issue is ranked in
高應科大人文社會科學學報 ISSN 1815-0373
voters’ minds. On the other hand, the media’s emphasis on certain parts of issues also affects people’s understanding of issues. Because substantial evidence from the past thirty years has suggested that the media can set the public agenda, many researchers focus on whether and why the media can exercise such cognitive effects.
As an increasing challenge to mainstream media during the recent decades, the Internet is able to deliver messages and reflect public opinion about varied issues through its interactive functions. When an election approaches, the Internet becomes another major political information source apart from conventional mass media (Ku, Kaid & Pfau, 2003). As a result, the gatekeeping function of traditional media is diminishing. The Internet, therefore, provides an optimal opportunity to extend the scope of agenda-setting theory for both academics and media professionals.
A review of the past literature on agenda-setting theory suggests that researchers have endeavored to investigate the ability of mass media in shaping public agenda or the effects of inter-media agenda-setting regarding the number of news stories or the attributes of the news stories covered by the media (Reese & Danielian, 1989; King, 1997; Rogers & Dearing, 1988). Some studies have looked into the bi-variate relationship between the amount of Internet discussion messages and coverage by the traditional media (Roberts, Wanta, & Dzwo, 2002). However, even though Roberts et al. (2002) and Kim (2003) have examined and verified the one-way impacts of some traditional media covering important policy issues on the number of messages on the America Online, it remains to be seen whether the attributes of issues covered by the media bear similarities to those of discussion messages on the Internet forums. As “referendum1” issue has been one of the most salient political issues during 2004 Taiwan presidential election campaign, the research questions are posited as follows:
1. How many and what kind of attributes of referendum issues were covered and portrayed in the three main national newspapers during 2004 Taiwan presidential election campaign?
2. How many discussion messages and what kind of attributes of referendum issues were posted on the EBBs during 2004 Taiwan presidential election campaign ?
3. According to the concepts of the first and second level agenda-setting theory, was there any bi-variate relationship in terms of amount and attributes of referendum issue between the media and the Internet discussion forums?
1
The Referendum Act was passed in November 2003 in Taiwan and the so-called first-ever “Peace Referendum” was held on the presidential election day, which provoked a serious political controversy before the presidential election of March 20, 2004.
Agenda-setting Analysis of Referendum Issue during 2004’s Taiwan Presidential Campaign Tzong-horng Dzwo
A Sketch of 2004’s Taiwan Presidential Elections
The lifting of Martial Law in 1988 by the Taiwan government was deemed a watershed event in the progress of political democracy in Taiwan. Since the first presidential election of 1996 when voters cast their direct vote for the President for the first time, Taiwan has held three presidential elections.
In March of 2004, the third presidential election campaign was expected to be extremely intense, as only two candidates, respectively representing the two largest political parties (the KMT and the DPP), participated in this neck and neck race. Before the election, Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Lien Chan had gained more popularity (44% vs. 34%) (TVBS Poll Center, 2004), due to his party providing political stability and its willingness to develop better relations with China.
As a result, the outcome of this election was even more dramatic than that of 2000. President Shui-bian Chen, then an incumbent, defeated the challenger, Chan Lien, by a tiny margin of less than 30,000 votes2 under protest of “unfair election” by Lien Chan, who believed that the outcome was overwhelmingly and negatively affected by a gun shot accident occurring less than 24 hours prior to the election day.
In addition to the unexpected assassination accident, other news events aroused voters’ attention during the six-month election campaign. For instance, the incumbent president’s wife was accused of accepting illegal political contributions from an overseas economic convict and having employed a servant who was paid by the people’s money, not her own. In order to stress the importance of the cross-strait relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China, President Chen insisted on holding a first-ever referendum vote on election day. In fact, the Referendum Act was passed in November 2003 and has been considered by the ruling party a first step to fulfill the promise of constitution reform made by the ruling party and President Chen.
Literature Review
Media Agenda vs. Public Agenda
Originally empirically tested by McCombs and Shaw (1972) in Chapel Hill, the agenda-setting theory proves a uni-directional influence of newspaper coverage on people’s perceptions of election issues. The more newspapers cover an issue, the more salient it is in
2 In the election for the eleventh-term president and vice president, the total number of ballots cast for the No.1 candidates Chen Shui-bian and Lu Hsiu-lien was 6,471,970; while that for the No.2 candidates Lien Chan and James C. Y. Soong was 6,442,452 ballots. The total numbers of valid ballots was 12,914,422, and of invalid ballots was 337,297, making a total number of 13,251,719 ballots cast.
Agenda-setting Analysis of Referendum Issue during 2004’s Taiwan Presidential Campaign Tzong-horng Dzwo
Ethnicity: discussing or covering issues related to ethnicity
Democracy Development:
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