政策論政興起之探討

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(2) p. Abstract The traditional policy analysis was deeply influenced by the "behaviorism" in the past thirty years, the results of policy analysis were always filled in numbers,. ff. experiments, and logic of causality. For the reason of getting objective policy. .II:t. knowledge, the causal inference, value-free, and quantification have became the. ±. emphasis of policy analysis. But it deserved to take a consideration whether the. !Jil. quantitative model emphasizing the efficiency and productivity could accompany with the needs and expectations of citizens. The citizens not just hope to have a wealthy state, they also hope there is a just society. Under the tioe of democratization, there are so many interest groups are forming and always have the interest conflicts between those groups. It is doubtful that the empirical approach. >,. ff~. fd. ~. of policy analysis could design the alternatives which coincide with the values of. *li. most interest groups. The policy argument provides the mechanism of multi. ~. argument which present the warrants and backings of each side to construct a. ~. structured dialogue. What the policy argument provides is not only the assumption. presenting, it also infer the reasonable and plausible alternatives which deserve to. ~. take a deliberation.. .1;).. This article discusses the evolution of policy analysis first, then takes a. 1&. discussion of basic assumptions of policy analysis. So, the reader could figure out. f'f. what the basic logic is in the policy analysis with the aids of what we described above. Secondly, this article will criticize the assumptions of empirical approach of policy analysis with the viewpoint of policy argument and justify the usefulness of policy argument. After that, this article will explore the contents and modes of policy argument with Toulmin's model of policy argument. The exploration contains of the discussions of elements, analytical logic, and the operation process of policy argument, then we also take a discussion of the norms of policy argument which will correct the biases that the policy argument will make. In conclusion, this article finds out that the policy argument could make up what the traditional policy analysis could not accomplish. This article recommend that it is beneficial to combine the two approaches in the policy making process. Keywords: policy argument, policy claim, policy warrant, policy rebuttal, policy analysis, instrumental rationality. 2.

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(11) ill m. ~'Mt~~ ~~ it ~~fD!3. .lE~I¥J&E~I¥Jil&m·~~ • • ~M~~m~.GlEiitl¥Jil&m.. r.,1itff. ~. Fisher ~~ ~:tt!!m tH' ~~ffiiim*1m$:WH~Utf:EJl~( social. :a~A~. ff.l • • ~M{]1Il$U1ft ~ Y tiff J'C:1f* ~ I¥J 111@:~. [IN tEtiff J'C :1f 1iI A I¥J It ff faIII ' Yi ffl!I! ffiii I¥J t~ 11 r ' ;g ~ ff 15ff 17iii ~ • -liI~~*~,fttfl¥J~.W.H~+ft- • • ~o 1998: 132). ~~*fffi. ~tl,tI. world)1¥J .fEl (Fisher, ' ~ I¥J il&m tiff J'C:W {Iijj. 0. ~~'.~ • • _&.~~ZMI¥J~*~~'~fffitttt1m. heory)fD. EJfHtfjU"',~~§t*~{r5il&m13~. , ~IJ15ff.lf)lBIgil&m.. ·1tt:ltr. l¥J.m(Fisher, 1998: 133). ~iit5EtE. m'~.~GM~AI¥J·~fffi~~~ffiiiff.l£~I¥J • • ~MI¥Jil&m~~. ~~UI¥J. 13 $:ffiii J:: I¥J fj~ ~ WtJ± ~ •. J. 0. 'M~~. ~J::m~m~~.~Grtuil&mft-tfT~~.~~rtuil&mft-tfTl¥Jm~'~~I¥Jil&m. f!f*~'. tiff J'C 13 ~ I¥J iitOO ri fEl1t I¥J fj~ ~ W. $;tftI¥J~. ~1¥J~JUiU. _,~1(t_1tFiJ~~ :51<:. t!*ffl. ilE. EI3 ~.~~ rtu 1¥Jil&~tiffJ'Cfflff~tiffJ'CJ::I¥J ~ 16 ' ~1~f&.~(postpositivist)~ rtu Zil&mft-fJT~iiWfOO~ ~Grtu ? Frank Fisher ttfitl:y -liI~ElA :. ~~. !UllEiitl¥J (quasi. 0. ~{JE~f4~~a~(scientific knowledge)fD!f~~~(philosophical. ft-tfT ttfT(cost lematical ~;tft~-. ,e.mil&~l!I!ffiiiWfttfl!I!ffiiiZMI¥J~.'. r ~-tiEmiit':EJlft{tl¥J. knowledge)ti5fJ J. (Fisher, 1995: 243) • ?Jj\ept&tJWH~W~~ISI¥J13~ , Mmt~1.ft~~.~f4~15ff.1#1¥Jil& JlJim • i§:fll¥JtiffJ'C~rtu ' OJ tJ~JI~ (hermeneutics)Wt1t*Ul!I!~Jlij(critical theory)I¥J-~(deLeon, 1998: 151) f!:\ tJJ::I¥JmElAOJ tJ~tH ' 1&.~j:~~&:~ pff~~l!I!tEA~fa(rational man paradigm)l¥JtiffJ'C ' i§:1!'2{$.Mtl¥JtiffJ'C~~1gB'l!I!tE~ Jll!I! ffiii (rational choice theory) , 1} (public choice) , ~ tJ ~ 1iI R *~ ~ (neoclassical microeconomics) .... ~~ ~~I¥Jil&~ft-tfTtttt~ffl-It!;;M:ltW • • ~. ". 0. rtu il& jfUJl ~~~il&. 0. Big r. HI¥J13~. 1I1@:'fffi. ~-~, .~~lf)l rtul¥Jil&mtiffJ'Cff.tEgLf~I¥J~!lffij, i'&&\@i~fflil&mf;tglS(policy. 'ffi'tf~ffl. Wil&m~Jlij~(policy argument)I¥J13~lJD.l-J2¥lE. ~{r5. '. , ~a4'i§:lt!;;tiffJ'CI~~P~~UY ~hll¥Jm~Wt~Jf. ~nn&tt • • ~,.~r. ~. •• J. (jurisprudence)ff.l~lliutfJ1!tz-f(Dunn,. i!.t)f3' ,*!~". OJ PJM~r<l'. '. L. ' ffil&. lE~alW-/J\fr]Pff{'J:I¥Jf¥j. dialogue). ::tfj~.~~ff.llEiitl¥Jil&m.W1.. 1993: 262-264). W.#U~tz-fB'gil&m~~. 11. 0. 0. ,~~~r$:l!I!~J 0. ,. )'[;IWPff~. , il&mmIUZtz-f. fffi~~tE~~~11 r ffl. !3 ~f4~.

(12) B"Hiff~:1J;'1;;fffi. (Dunn, 1993: 262). .'fffi~~iiH~~m. 0. ~ pg~~~t~l¥JiiH~. ~ • • ?iiH~~*. ,. 1±tt~mitftiiH~l¥J~. ~. .~~.?iiH~~*~~. W. I. m ? .... ~~ , ~fl'}0~il&ULZiiH~JE~~t~~11~U~~*~ , f;ftn.~~r",'.I¥JM~tttt. (I. •• ~*·m.~~~ •• MI¥J&:1Jo~~I¥Jil&_iiH~.~~~M~~el¥J·.~. ~. ~~~lli~~'. '~Mfl'}rMS. ~. jJJ~~--;fj~~~t1~mnl~H.li~¥U~~~I¥J~{j(a process of. &:. ffll¥Jil&_:1J.I¥J·fffi~~.. §~~ffl. iiH~JL~o. [!~Ht. '&HB"Jil&_ffirj. reasoned argument and debate)(Dunn, 1993: 262). 0. ~ ~;'1;; ~ ~. . ;'1;; ~ ¥g¥ ~rfIi. ~H1. I¥:H~_. ~. Jj. ' J;XX.i€tJ!j;~DIfrJ . mijl;fD. ifti. (forensics) . ;fDl~iM(rhetoriC) .... ~~:1JAl¥Jf~ijf . J'llJaJ J;)1:Efl~~. t:j:J , f::J(;llitt~aJffl¥Jil&_W:1J.. 0. W1:EJ;)~-{i:1JAtt"iliJ. ;'1;;~~l¥Jrm.J~ffillil¥Jo;'1;;~~1¥J3~~tn~~~~I¥J~~.~.'~~~~. m. ~~~~B"J~1~rfIi. 3~. ~. J;)~filHff. ~. • • ~.ffim~m~llil¥J.~of;ftnil&_.m*~ili~-.·ffWil&_l¥Jmfi·~. :1J. .. ~~3 :1J1¥J.:t~(claim)1mH~JJH±13K. &\~11f'~PJT.:t~I¥J:f!tl.~(reasons). .. 0. ~~(background). ~1:Em.f;f~~I¥J~{jt:j:J. .. fOll;U~~1mHJi!:lli. . ,&wHt ' 1liIHI.~tf;f~~I¥Jil&_.:t~(policy claims)~ff§~*,ffiI¥J.ff~ 1¥J;fIJ~nmfKiA(stakeholder)H~;ftnL~~I¥J;fIJ~I"HKi. :Jlm~;f§1illj~1¥J. 0. ~.llt. '. il&_mJ!J~. '. 0. ~tn~~. . pJT J;)313 pJT~llil¥Jil&_.:t~. (il. . ~n~&\~Jii~~il&_~lfHm(arguments).m~1!. §::. (debates)I¥J:1JA ' #H~3~il&_.:t~I¥J~:f!tl.t1 ' itfZ~lli~iJJ1'JB"Jil&_:1J. 1:E~lfHml¥J~f~t:j:J. 264). 0. ,. It. 0. , ~JIi(reason)tIHl:U!~~\¥PIiil&'ffLt~l¥Jit.I~(Dunn, 1993:. ;'1;;:f!tl.~I¥J~PIfrJ5$.j~Jijlil&_.m~-{i:f!tl.ttl¥Jmfr(rationaI advocacY)~lj. ~fqj.IWi?JT~llil¥J.:t~~IT#k~. ,. J;)IDl!imlli~~B"Jil&_:1J~. 0. ~Jl. , ~f;f. A. !It{im_:1J~~~~. (e. J;).~~Hm£~l¥Jm_~fj· ~J;)Wi~ • • ~~I¥J--¥!('Ii(empirical correspondence). m. ~mmJ1J.~HI¥J£~. il&. ,. fffi~J;)il&_.:t~;f§f;fI¥J~&tl:(adequacy)m£~. 0. _~lfHm~IUH:j,.m~~.Wi~l¥Jr",' • . .RrJ~Hj\il&_.:t~~B~~IJJ1'JB"Jr",'.. il&_ iiH ~ 1±tt" i"I {j' iJ. :1f\elJil& 0. ~t~. mSJ! Jtt J!j;il& _I¥J ~ *iJlHKi ' {lH'lP tl: ttJmIlf§. ~ m .. ~ wet 11f' F",'.. (n. l¥J .. mtt·~~~~.fO~.~~I¥J~~'tttt.;'1;;~~il&_~.~.I¥J~~.fi. •. ~·~f*~_'&m;IJif~;'1;;~Wit2TMr",~.L?JT1:E'~iU8~rm=~~~~ierrors. ~. of the third type)l¥JfeJiJ(Dunn, 1994: 151-152) . :1f\elJ r JfL[E1iiI¥J:1J;'1;;M~T~~B"J. m. r""~J (solving the wrong problem)(Raiffa, 1968: 264)2. ~~tJ;J.,l~§~. m. 2. -~iIiJ't ' tt"'liUt.1t"'J:.1£~b1f1l'::t-1l.>~Ji~~!jl<AE.~ r Jt~1rH~J Cnull hypothesis) :1f~;f!. • -k~-~12jlt~Ctype I error)'. 0. mIf3ZrPJI¥J ~ #.4e€fJjlt~. f!p.tE.~ 1..iE~€fJJt~1rH~; J;?'r-;f!k~'::'~12~!:(type. 12.

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(14) A7fi·a• • • ~~m~~.~~-~A~m~ • • • ttt§37f..-@Jfrj/JUIYlz. . a • • • ~~.m:tt~tl::;~%fir~±:m011J~ . jtl*~7J ~~~~~tt~~.m:tt~·~ • • ~~aW~~.mBAAffi±:.·.~a.~ g.·~a.~.~$m~·~~~~-.~~®~~~.~:tt·~a • • • mft. • ~. ~. • •. ~~~~.W~5n~AkAa.Z.~~·.~.~~~.~w~.-m¥~·. ~~.tt~ti~W • • ·~~~~~~.~®~WM.g~¥~lli*·~~~~~ m-~~fffiJ] -~. . %fir~~.'I1:~±:(discursive. .tl~~±:~P~~:ti1JD~J5<~~W. democracy)~~*(Dryzek, 1990) • •. . ¥~~¥.m~ffiEHl '. ~,. i&W~.A±::f¥}~f.1fif.1fi~ I. ~·~~.W~&.A~~.*W~*,~ft.~jtM~~ir$ttoi& • • • ~~. >.. • til. ~J5<.*a.~.~·m~::f~~.z.ti~·.ffi~~M • • ft~~a~~ • • ~. lli* .. ~~~.1ES'9~±:i&.ilin~. ~~'~i&. ~J. •. ••• R~~~~frj~*~~0~i&.~·~~~~~@~~~~·. Ajlgra,(interpersonal), m@A(extrapersonal)(Cahill & Overman, 1990: 16) • ~-M!1!f~7J~MA*~~!1!f~ . 1*5m.MAPJ r ~~ • • J (frame of reference)~~~W~nti&.mJ~, ti~~.m"JW~8t A *~. fiE.1rJ ~~@JA~r~~ • • J~mE'm~0~i&.·~~.MA~~.M.W.~~ g~RK*·~~~~.m~~!1!fOO~.~ft, • • o~I~Mm~~~M.r • • ~MJ (construction system) · E~~~t~~~$.(criteria) , lW.!t~$.(standards of assessment) , ~.$.~IJ(decision rules) ...... ~ffi*,fim · ~If!:: r • • ~M J ~PJgWJ ~POOA*~(intrapersonal)'. 0. ~.~,mE~,~i&.~~~~fii&.~mE.~~·::f~ttt~7f..-Mfrj~*.·. ~~r • • ~MJ~~.~~~.~~m~~~·~n • • ~~i&wz.~ • • ~· ~~&~~R#~. .~~±:.i&W~.z.mB·~.~tttt~~.±:.~~~±:. .~.~~.±:.0~i&.Z.~~·~~·.*±:. •• ~m.~~z.i&.tttt.~. ~.~·~.~ • • ~~ • • ~ffi~o~~.~~.w.m~~tii&.~~~~.. z.*oi&• • • • ~i&.mE~Rm~~MA~~.r~~ • • J·~m~UMA~ .~~.~fJT.mJUi& •• ~ =}if ~WJ ~ A jlg ra' (interpersonal) ~ }if *& . E 1£ [II ~ ~ • • *,fi *'z. ra' tt ¥u ~ 1f~ • • (shared meaning) · m~#~~.f@:.fi~~Jf3m ' m"H~lI:t.~ PJ:ti~ ~i&.fFm~~.(a1ternatives) • Silverman :iltt&ti Allison ~APJ*,fi*'~f.~:fII6~ 1Mi&.z.iliU~(Silverman, 1971: 218) . fiE.~E.A~1T.~fEl1L~.~ . f'P~.~:E ~~.!tm*,~.~OO~~·a~M.~.mWi&.~.~®~·~OO.~-~".. 14. 3. J: l.

(15) jft.~~~~.t:.ilit. .~·~~'iL3cm:*.l¥Jm.~I'iJ.tit/f~,~m~Mff4~®m~I¥JiL3cm:.$.~. . :It ffi{ 12V"J. .m~'.fi.~S.~~_·:lt~'.~M~Mff4~m~iL3cm:·ml'iJ.S@.~. ~~iL3c.L¥J. ~_ZmtE·.$W$ • • iL3c~~_I¥J.M·/f~'fi;E{fi!i1AOO.1[ffi~l¥Jm~&. JfHlIHftW ft.. .~·~~ • • ~S~:lz:'iL3cm:~I'iJ~.~~M·iL3c~ • • ~tE~• • ~1[I¥J.~. ·iEE.lifjl , ~. Mf* ' j;J 1$ px fi JJ: I'iJ1T I¥J iL3c m: 1J ~. 0. m.=.oonJ~~U~;mOOAI¥J(extrapersonal)'. ~O lEt ::t /f ~. I¥J.{@~. mH~,I¥J1R:m:~' tYl"J~.1[~1[. . ~Uf{~1Bllttrf3~¥}.1[1~HII¥J~*fi~(communication link)~ , ~Ug{1'iJ j;),px r )«j~M J (epistemic community)(Holzner & Marx, 1979) • tElEt r )«j.M J. k, 1990) ID1i :¥} ~ f.lj f.lj tE. :lz:PfT~1¥J. ~ ~ ~JfB ~ tij!{jl:. m'iL3cm:m~~&~~~OO.1[~.~~I¥J~~·iL3cm:.~I¥J~*~.~·.iL3cm:. ~ I¥J :lz: ~ ~ fjl. fi~W • • m~S.px~'~iL3cm:~JEI¥J. 0. .Wl'iJfitt~I'iJ~~~'iL3cm:§.~~. I'iJ j;),.PX • ~~~I¥J.~I'iJ~~)«j'iL3cm:l¥Jti~WID1i.1[~OOM~·-{fi!i1nJ~~1[~/f~. LnrPJ :f'. 1¥J5ffi~m!M. , iL3cm: • • I¥J~*HP1[l'iJij~titJI~ • ~ ~1¥JID1i~ ~~)«j'iL3cm: • • ~r$JJ: J&~r • • m~JI¥J.~ (metaphor) • iL3cm::5ttfT/f¥}~!f!~l!J~f*ffl~:l:1iff~ . • • m~ . • ~tp1z:' ~J!1! tl ...... ~1JA®8 • B.f*.1tEdI1tZ1iff~I~ , ~~/f~llmZrf3~I¥JMff4ttj:. • ' j;),.&-.mfiJJ:1'iJ1TI¥JiL3c~'±Ji • tE• • I¥J~;fj tp . J!1!tt(reason)~~JfB.1¥J. lal)(Cahill & r ~~~ff4J. t *IDl ' ft!! fr~ fJJt~Ul~~. r ~ff4 standards of CJ I'iJ j;):!:6b WJ. ~m;m. mft!L~*ff ~~~mf9lJ. '. ~nJ~~if~px~. ±~£~'~~~fir~~J~*8~~/fm~m~7·. 1E. ,.. ' '. :~~~jt~.<. t±~(Toulmin)~* __ lI_~. tEfjl1[I¥JiL3cm:~JfB.1iff~PX*. · f{1[ Toulmin OOiL3c~.~Z~ff4m5t1t ' E51lEt *3tlEti Toulmin 1¥JiL3c~.~f~5t{'F-rIl~ Toulmin z~JfB~f~5tzpfTj;),5'tm~ , ntE~~oor $J!1!~I¥J[IlPffll J(jurisprudence metaphor)~{'F 1t(operationalization) , :Mztll!iL3cm:~JfB~f~A*aff41t(Dunn, 1993: 164) ~~D$tWJpfTm& ' iL3c~~JfB~±~iL3cm: Z~JE1[~tE$~-.·~.~mmili~~I¥JJ!1!~W.~·~~Mff4ttl¥J • • ·OO jjJ~l¥J~ ~~:Jjt lifjlili*3, ~O lEt 1J1'iJ j;), tll!i&~~ Jt:( deliberation)l¥J~ rPJ JIm JiUAI ' j;), & Wftt!m 1R: r",~ _ •. ~ ~ tttt tit IJEl. 0. ~ititlJEI¥J~W. Ff-F j;), {fi!i1 A I¥J. 0. ~zr~M:.'<:~ti~. t ~ I'iJ j;)':Ii 5't 5ff4l¥Jfi~~~ 1'F~m:~;E t1[-®~lJ#ij. 3 ft~;f±BJ3(Toulmin)~*l.!"'.:t..I!~.JUhl.t.tII!1t~.ll-rtlt.ll.ij. !,. Uses of Argument)- :f. l. 15. • tt.t.l!Il Toulmin PlTl- r tll!1t.:t..1tJll J(The.

(16) r. &:\~. t:i ~'f ~ 1} 3t iI& JSR ~ F! m 7 Toulmin 8".J ~lfH j~~H~ rt ' ;It r:p 19 115 Dunn(1993; 1994) , Mitroff & Mason(1981a; 1981b; 1982) , Freeley(1993) , Cahill &. *. Overman(1990) .... ~ ~ , 1t!?:fr~ 9![li *8".J il&JSR ~ ~ ~ ~ rt:u ~lfH lm rt 8".J ' ID?:HIiH18".J (persuasive) , ~1l1f8".J(dialectical)1Jrt:u~~ -$j[;iI&JSRrr;!9~(policy problems)Mz::f1~ :@'liflrtPJTf&H~8".J1fl)fj , 'j!flHjH5.L~jf8".J(well-structural) 1t*8".JiI&JSRrr;!9~1±1±;Ii! fr5ffiJ::f 8".J(ill-structural), ;Ii!~**f~]m8".Jr",9~ ~rtt ' m:~iI&JSR~lfH~lfl~~ tbbWJ '. t)JIl& ~ ~ it:@ 1:1} fJ 8".J iI& JSR 1J ~ t:i8".J~~~ Toulmin 8".JiI&JSR~~fl~'MJ:r.IG--fi r ~ :ru!8".Jflrt J (transactional model)(Dunn, 1993: 264-270) , rtt-~~fl~fJHt~ffr±l1tf4~~~~-1il~~lfH~I*~ fr.B'9fr5ffiJt1f11:.i'G(structural schema) ~ 13 ~ , Toulmin 8".J~lfH1l1fflAOJTJ,~iI&JSR~lfU~1. Mitr~. P%' il&JSRi (fran. 0. 0. 0. &~I. 0. JW~OI ~.. 0. 8".J~~£~*.~'.::f~8".JiI&JSR~~~fifr5.tt8".J~~'~.l&-1il~~~.8".J il&JSR1J~. 0. :{£§3-1J[ffj , Toulmin. ~~lfU~lflAiI3f!til&JSR;liJllrr~&~H=iE~~~fiil&. JSR:E~~ 1W~~~1':fitt*,J'Ii(critical)&@]F!'Ii(reflective)8".J~~(Dunn,. ~~OOM~'::f~8".J~. ~~A~lli~fiil&JSR. 1993: 265). 0. ~'H~~.t:i::f~8".Jmw.. (worldview) , i1!~~t~(ideologies) , &~~~ffiJ(frame of references) , ~1~iI&JSR~ ~~1W~W:@EE1f~1Ff¥j~~t. ' il&JSRfijUJE=iE~~~lttfffi::g: ,mtJ,llim fffi Toulmin 8".JiI&JSR~mflA~~~~JSR~~~::f~1Wm8".J.~'~ • • 8".J~JSRM~r:p~lliit:@ 0. ~1T8".J1J ~. R=iE '. 0. :E~iI&JSRJimgf1t8".J~.Il*~. , Toulmin. 8".JiI&JSR~lfUlmflAI:1} .1-::J-~l&iI&JSR. Jim;li!~~.'Mzmlli~l&iI&JSRJim8".J • • W$au·~~~~8".JiI&JSR~~tttt.~ ~~~~'~;Ii!::fWil&JSR~~8".J~M,~rtt,ti~iI&JSR~~~.~ • • t:imo~fffi. Toulmin 8".J il&JSR~lfH~lflA 'jJJ~ftt:gf1tfOfjEif!~iI&JSRJimW 3;D~:E ~(knowledge claims)l[~'11W."'11(truth)8".J.fijU ' ~~iI&JSRJim8".Jf~mWF!m£~lai(Weiss & Bucuvalas, 1980) ~OO1Ftt~lfU& 'iI&JSRfij~JEJYtE~.~iI&JSRr",9m, ::f~f.l~itr f4 ~J8".J~*fffiBo~rtt'~JSR=iE:{£.~JSROO'~~.~ • • ~~H~R8".JiI&JSRJimo. f. fffiaJSR~m.~~~~~~iI&JSRJim;li!~.R?~~WiI&JSR~mffiY?~~M~~. m®i. *~ ? ~ ~ ~ l[jflUifLI: 8".J -- 3& 'Ii ? .... ~ , ti ~ ~JSR =iE. JSR iT. EE~. 0. *ID?:;Ii! - JJi +:B-.. mB'9. I ~. 0. M~-m8".J~'Thu~~8".J~mfl~~~~~*ft • • ~8".J~5~~A'~~. ~~. , IDtHIlt(persuasion) , ~*U(negotiation)8".J1J~ , itP%--1il1Elrtt$.<i~ tJ,:fi$1:B'9rg fti'ii(Dunn, 1993: 265-266) 'i'OO8".JiI&JSRfijUJEBJm.{1J*JC*fiL~~JSR8".J~M ' &:\aJi~. ~.I. ~lfU~. 0. ~~~&~~8".J1J~'~::f~~.8".J.~.~~~A'~.~iI&JSR~JE.~fi~::f. 16. WiI&~.

(17) ~.1il.~~~41tt1t. ;Q:, ~ i¥J ~l3. j]. 1993;. m&. 0. Toulmin i¥J~Ri. f~~{?fd~IEf.tMt. f.t*1C~-~~~Ri~~{*i±31Hwm. ~ 'f~ i¥J. Mitroff, 1981b: 579). ~::f{~. ~. :tt~. J1&~iMBmi@flnl!11i}M~(;tiffi$1~. bWJ '. (framework)cp'P;!.B-i&~_*4(data). tional. 0. J (syllogism)ffiJ1~(Mason. '. ,. ~U~DIIl-}'iff~. :. *iWm ' *s~~-=.tflHt}'iff*J3.. , .B!; 83 : 71) ,. 0. ,. J1&~~Ri~(warrant). &i&~±j~(cIaim)~1iJf;j. ,. ,. Toulmin. i¥JiMBmf~~~ffij. i&~~ft(backing). n~'8--fr*B~Or 'ffiJ1J~. i&1$i;fEl~_~. t"iMB~ i:i iill.. &. , ffiJ Toulmin ;ZJRimm~~U:ijf1JDJ1&~~ft ' J1&~&.i5( , Wi&1$iiMB~=$7t ' ~1~. &~(rebuttal). PiU1C. r -=-~~~Rim. ,. J1&~. *sffijlll. i&~±'5i. ••. •• ••. ••. i-lIi&. •• •• •. 5) IE 0. •. :Wfi. llimin. 1illl J1&~~.. i&~~ft. ~i&1$i. :mEtn III. ~ffiJ. ledge. ". .~ . : Toulmin i¥Ji&m:iMBmf~~~ffij. _*4*:tJ.ij{ : Mason, Leschly, Feinberg, and Simth, 1982: 659. ~tt:. Weiss. •• ~~WJ1&m:~.ffi&i¥J~mo. 5- r fij. r~. i¥J r i&m:_*4 J HP~Wi&~;fEl~. 0. [1~f*. lllJ!t.i&m:jlf~'P;!.ffiJ1&1$irr::l~~(policy. 'l.. m:. 0. ~i@. ti¥JtsJ , j&i"* ,'/. 11!i.. fl3# ::f. IV 15. problems) ,. (policy actions) , i& m: @.. performance)~~(Dunn,. information) , ffiJ. J1&m:i¥J**~mi(policy. (policy outcomes) 'i&. future) , i&. *_ ~ (policy. 1994: 66) lllJ!t.i&m:_*4~l~UElJf1:i¥Jjlf*4 ' ~1J1~Wn~W 0. ft.i¥J·~m:~~~&~W~~A.~m. Wi&m:±.5i. ~(policy-relevant. ~i¥Jjlf*4'~.~::f~i¥Ji&m:~~. o. }'iff ~~ 8~ r J1& m:. ~. J '. HP. * fHt WH.k: 8~ fl1li (value) , ~. 17. *. (need) , ~ 1ft.

(18) r. ~~. (opportunity) , ffjj~®rr::t'~KR~il&R1::tFlgmblCl¥J(Jones, 1977: 15) ~f~il&mrJJJl!!i:fm * !3 fJ {~~ fI :1t* * ¥P'Jj JE ffiFj I~ f9!J ~O ~'8 ~ I¥J rr::t' Jl!!i WEl f~:ttlf~ EE 1iN~iJ!\i ~ -tl ~ , ~ rr::t' Jl!!i It!!: ' I 1'F1fE:1< ' wi {t~IH!f~ ~ ~ ~ IZ9 *}'iff iJ I~ , !\it@LA. 1:. ~t F&: rr::t' Jl!!i ' ~ ~ 0. *. ~I]r D. 0. }'iffffE. ~A,~{t.~AA.~.,m~*!3~~.ffjj~·il&m~Jl!!il¥Jffi~.~m~.il&m. ~.. ~~I¥J~1J7m • •rJJJl!!i}'iff1£. future)~7Kil&JfifPRI&il&mrr. ~~R. D,¥P'JjJE7il&mfl:1<Wm~il&m~Jl!!i.,m~1:.I¥J-.il&mM.·.~~~,ril&m. ;.@~. • r il&ml¥J** J (policy. **J~~~~ti~il&m~rr.l¥Jil&mM.oril&m**J~~.~~~mM**1¥J. il& m 3?l.fBk ' J-:l. ~;.@ ~O filJ fi& ~ m r il&mffD J f~:m~F&:il&m El ~l¥Jf'F~ffiJ ~ (Dunn, 1994: 69) il&ml¥J~.'tttt. ~. 0. ;-. ~~~ml¥JrrD.~'~®il&mrrD~F&:il&mEl~I¥J~F&:o~~m~~!\itl¥Jril&m. (autl (pra!. rrDJM~~-~a.'0.1£il&~~·$.~·~.iJ!\i~tiril&mrrDJI¥J~M. 126). 0. *~~m'~~'M.;.@mMmblC~'~~il&mrrD~rr.~~m.offiJil&mrrD. J(policy outcomes). ~~. ~:mil&mrrDm~1:.I¥JM*ffiJ~o~EE~ril&~~lliJtttt.$.*~m,IZ9~~. A±. 1¥Jil&~.ID1' ~tJ..~~~7mil&~~ofilJ~.W.~or il&m~lli. ~il&m~m~~~mwm~~'~~~m~~il&m~rrI¥JM*o~~il&~~lli.~~. , il&m~Jf~(policy performance)f~:mil&m~lli~F&:il&~ El ~l¥Jfjflffjj ~. a:1~. 0. • • ~Iil&~~Jl!!im~~"~~*mblCl¥J'~~~il&~~Jl!!i~0.*.~m~· ~~J[I!J{reformulate)1¥J &£1 '~®il&~rr::t'Jl!!i~~**m~(unsolved)(Ackoff, 1974: 0. 237-239). 0. -*. ~wr:. ~.il&~.m~7mril&mrrDJ~~~~'~~m~~1:.mMI¥Jil&mM.o. il&m.~I¥J.~~tJ..blCm~7mll]~~il&m1TD~J-:l.mblC$~rJ:l'Jl!!i? Il]~. m~:. o! $' ~. ,. ~'-. ®il&mrrD~~.$mblC~Jl!!i?~~.~1£il&~~m$~+~.~l¥Jo. r il&m::tJ~ J (policy claim)~ tJ.~~~@lil&m~lfIimI¥JM~(Dunn, 1994: 66) *~ .M.ttl¥J~mWti~~.'0~.~1:.-~.~~~~rrI¥JM~,.~a: • • • J1!ff:HTI¥Jil&m1J~ il&m.±3~1ftJ;J. r}'iff J-:l. J (therefore )I¥J~~~~M ' r }'iff tJ. J ~~ 0. 0. .~. i i.. ~~~~mM*M~.~ffiJ*'~ • • • ~I¥J~m.ffiJ~1:.I¥J'~~IZ9~*I¥J'ffiJ. ~m. £1~~.M.l¥Jo. 'M"~. ~fJf~ir~~f~. • • ~~Mml¥J.m&.~,m.~I¥Jil&m~~0~ • • m~il&. ~U. 0. ffi]il&~~~~'21.=::..~:a;. : ~~tl¥J(designative) 'lWfJl¥J(evaluative). '1~~1¥J. (advocative)(Dunn, 1994: 92-94) • ~~tl¥Jil&~~~f~EE.mI&rrul¥Jil&m~;fff}'iffm~ ffjj* ' J-:l..ml¥J~1!(empirical approach)~~~I¥J~m£~ ~HI¥Jil&m~~}'iff~ {,\I¥J~ r • • J {facts)l¥Jrr::t,m ' ~D r il&~.~F&:1l]~®*6* ? J I¥JrJJJl!!i • lWfJl¥Jil&~ 0. 18. j. r.

(19) it Jt.~'!1t~~:t..~ 11 ±:~f*'EE. Jj;J~il&m. r flfrnI~1~ J (value approach)pfTftE1llfBffiJ* ' f*Im;[J\ r flfrnI J (value)l¥Jrr::t'lm . tzor lttJjil&m~:~HrnI1~ 7. Jf~~tEI¥Jil&m±:~f*EEr miB'[i.~1<! J(normative approach) ffiftE1llfBffiJ* ' f*lmtlJ\il&m r fTiIt J (action)l¥Jrr::t'lm ' tzo r ff~H**,pgMfiil&m 7 J ...... ~ ~o ~~~il&m • • mftE.l¥Jil&m±:~,~~ • •I¥J . • • I¥J,&miBl¥J,E~. RI{;l il& m fT. m~. {mrr::t'lmim ,~~, ~. ~lm. '. ~,r. :g~. •• I{;l~I¥Jil&m~~,~~ftE~fI.~miBI{;l~I¥Jil&m~~o. fE;giEOOI¥J5&H! '. il&m. im:JJOj;J1*~. 0. il&UHlfB~(warrant) ~ j;J~~~lfB.1f1&I¥J®fE(assumption). ~Wl**1¥J. ~~Jwril&m.MJ~OOI¥JImf*'°ffiJ • • I¥J~~. ,. ~~. e~ j;JiJl*E. r il&m. ,~. • • I¥J (authoritative) • ~1fI¥J(intuitive) • 7t:fffI¥J(analycentric) . *1¥J(causal)' Jrffll¥J (pragmatic) . lRflfrnItlttrJI¥J(value critical)~l)(fi ' H7t~tzDT(Dunn, 1994: 100 126) :. ~f!.tl:tt:. ltl¥J r il&m I¥J~N$U. tv J. .ti~il&m~. koff,1974:. (authoritative mode)I¥J1llfB~: • • ~~I¥J~lfB.f*j;J • • A±~ .~.'~fTil&m~ • • o~~O • • • ~.'im.~~-~ • • A±om~ • • A±I¥J.~~~,ti~~ • • • ~,m.~~.g~ml¥J~.o~ltt, • • ~.~ • •A±I¥J• • • ~,m~~ • • ~~il&m±:~l¥JiE.tto~ffiti.~.ffiJ~'R ~WT!B 1¥J.~~m ~~lf~ A ij [.I¥J¥~ 2.*1CH~~ (statistical mode)l¥J~lfB. : *1C~t~AI¥J~lfB~f*j;J r fl* J (sample) ftE • • ¥~, ±:~~r tl* J• • I¥J*E~lfB' ~tl~ t:J-ftE~lfB~IJ'*l¥Jr £.lit J(population) °ltt~ • • ~Jr.~~I{;l~I¥J±:~o • • I{;l~I¥Jil&m~~~ffl • •mHlRH.. 7 nll~. $'~fl*I¥J*E.ftE.~.Offiit~'ffiJff~il&mE.~ftEft°~~ • • • mH~. 1.• • ~~. ITil&mfTiIt outcomes) ~,. I!t~. IIttill iU-rar fH9~:. 0. 0. ~l!tffij ~. 0. rrW¥m'. trr::t' ~4:. 66). 0. *~. !Pm:1&Yl~. rr t:J- J ~m! ~ *I¥J. ' ffij. ~.~f!~il&. ~). ·... ... .,~~tir~a~l!tI¥J • • JlRr~~5&l!tI¥J • • J4'~.~*1CH~~fi~l!t1¥J. .,. *.~.'~~~~ fl*I¥J*E.m.~ffiit~o 3.• JjU~~ (classificational mode)I¥J• • : .JjU~AI¥J.~f*j;J.JjUt:p1¥J r ~ ~.:m J (membership).f'F1llfB.I¥J¥~ .lIIit~$7tfflG A;g~~¥-fff' fT. ' ~fJi~ff,!f lIIit~Jtftg~~~H!.;g.ftl.l¥J¥-fff • ff. ' lRJJi~ j;J'[i.JjUItU~.f9lJ ' .~~~tt~I • • ~·ttH~l¥Jm~ff,!f'~~m.Jtftg~tt~.~ffi I¥Jm~, 0. I. 0. ~rtt~&.J~~.lRil&m;gJt~~I¥J~.,~~.~I)(~ttl¥J.~o. ,. 4.~1f~~. f~~1¥J. (intuitive. mode)l¥J~lfB~. : &r1f~~I¥J.~j;JWiJ~(insight).~lfB.¥. HffpfT i1HlfB ~±:~PfTlm. ¥fll¥Jil&m. 4. ~ttllJJ ' 1t1-l!Ij Campbell, D. T.& J. Stanley PIT~ r btt1EBIJ't_&"* 't (Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research)-". 1UIm- r Pi-lUtll&Yr{utll1At J. _att J. 0. 19.

(20) ~. ,. P9:f£i¥JJL<E!lU,*~J(inner. mental state). ~~i¥JJf~~3'G~$~~?1EJ~. 0. ,. *UIf(judgement)~P9:f£i¥J~~(tacit knowledge)1ltf'PiR:~Z£~. 8'9 '. ~~.B'9. 0. ~:gm'8~~f4~. r rPJtI::tJftftJf~!i J (Speaking 1979) , HPlfi?fjtiU~JmJEm r i&~:5t1'JT~-fl~~W. ?&l};tt:i&~~:kgjjj. Truth to Power)-!f(Wildavsky,. ,. Wildavsky :f£jti'i~. 15{8 J (The Art and Craft of Policy Analysis). r:pmll*i&~fliUJEtttt~¥IJi&m[l;l*. 0. z~m,~~~tti&~MJEm~.~.~'i&~Z~JE~§~~.~-.'N~ff ~nU~lJW[li]JEfJ.t~. 0. m~i&~flinJE~-fl.iJr.J. '. !'l.lJiR:~~:'-t·q@tB'9@lt:&*IJlfgtl!~. #mm.o~W:f£.~.I!i¥Ji&~.~r:p'mE.~~~~.i¥J~ • • *B'9i&~'. B'9 fit• • 1'13 &' B'9 51¥! 'f1~ rs~. fl fliti ' ffiJ j]: lI: ~ @1t ~RH~ ~ ¥Um ff~ B'9!~ 1] 5.:5t1'JT~~ (analycentric mode)B'9ffifa~ : :5t1'JT~i:\B'9~lfIJ~f*'tj r 1]$ J (method) f'Pm~lfIJ~i¥J£~ r :5t1'JTi¥J~lfIJ~ J ±~i&~:5t1'JTI~dZ'~JU~~~J:t(validity) , ~fijt m:5t~i¥J~~~~~~mJ:toi&.~~~,~~gtm • • B'9:5t~I~~fi.~'~ ffifa~m~~B'9i&. ·:f£Jf~i¥J~3'G~§r:p' • • lI:RB'9~3'GI !'l.lJpJTm~i¥Ji&~~~~$t;7J~i&.r.,'Jme'9~IL' , ~~~tn*~fm 6.1Z9~~~ (causal mode)i¥J~lfIJtf : [l;I~~~B'9~lfIJ~f*'tj r JJj{[l;I J (cause)f'Pm~lfIJ ~e'9 £ ~ , ~!!P j:j 3iHlEf B'9 [l;I ~ Hf*,f'P m ~lfIJ ~ i¥J £~ fi EE [l;I ~ Hf*, Z rm i¥J ;i~Ufit m rm ' ~aJ:l~lfIJ~(warrants)i¥J~~1~1 ' ~ j:j~~1Hm 5e.i¥J-fl~lfIJ~1]~ tj r tJlt:k P9 J 15 0. I. 0. 0. 0. 0. ~m~'i&m~m.~~P9*~B'9.*,gt~~W~~~B'9~nD'~~~*~~'. gt*$ g ~~ j:jm~. , ~RpJT1~~[l;Ilf;tffiJ!t'ttm. 0. :ijf;tm.*rm(IZ9)f'@f~BUa-rm~nD. 3iffiJm~~ P9i¥J*~~1Sl~(~). '. , ~ tj~~fHfij1¥!B'9[l;1~mffifaHf*, 7.Jfffl~~ (pragmatic mode)i¥J~1fijtf : Jfffl~~i¥J~1fij~tj1'§fJ),B'9@!]~(parallel case):&~tt(analogy)f'Pm~lfIJ~B'9£~ • f§fJ),@!]~B'9~~1f\~ tj~~-fi r ttili5tB'9~1fij ~ J{comparative argument)' HPttili5t~~J:tI1~e'9i&~f'Pm tj~%B'9*~~~~m19U ' 0. 0. EEtn~.¥M~~B'9~~~~~.'~~.~~~~~~B'9~$~~~%~~'~ ~m§~~%B'9~~ • • • m.~·[l;I~'~~~~.B'9 • • f'Pmjt~~i¥J£~·. *.~~~.i¥J • • • ffltn.~'.~¥MB'9~.W~'~$R.~m.~~~~ ~~m~.i¥J • •. ' • • fu.~~&'B'9~~~~o. .tU1B'9~lfIJ~~( analogical argument)fliH~£~~fJ), @!]~B'9f§fJ),t1. ' ffiJJt'8 {'P-~. .~o~*~~i&.m~'*~~i&~~~W~.~~~mf'P.~,[l;I .*15~~m~~®;tt:~B'9!ff~.!ff~6. '. i!&~lfIJ~e'9£~~ j,,~H1'§m9'. ~.~~. •. i¥J~,.~tt~tf.rffi~@!].~.JZffifatf.~®~~'@~~~~ffi~or~~. 20.

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