全球貪腐傳染之空間分析：以世界銀行貪腐控制指數為例

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(1)ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය Ȥࣴ‫ز‬ፕЎȥ ҇103ԃ3Д ।1-28 ୯ҥࡹ‫ݯ‬εᏢϦӅՉࡹᏢ‫س‬. Б஧లჺ็ߖ̝۩ม̶‫ژ‬Ĉ ͽ͵ࠧᅙҖలჺଠ‫޽ט‬ᇴࠎּ. *. ၐ Ꮈ ̚ ** Ƞᄔाȡ ၸѐϿኧଞჹӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉ‫زࣴޑ‬ς࿶ว౜Ǵӧ௓‫ځڋ‬д࣬ᜢӢન ΠǴࢌঁ୯ৎ‫܈‬Ӧ୔‫ޑ‬೥ᆭำࡋ཮ᆶᎃ߈Ӧ୔‫ޑ‬೥ᆭำࡋև౜҅࣬ᜢǶฅ ԶǴҞ߻٠҂ԖҺՖࣴ‫ز‬ଞჹӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉёૈ‫܌ޑ‬ӧ୔ୱ຾Չ௖઩ǶӢ ԜǴҁࣴ‫ز‬ਥᏵ೥ᆭ‫ڀ‬Ԗ໺ࢉ‫ޑ܄‬ଷ‫ۓ‬рวǴճҔ‫ޜ‬໔಍ी຾Չ࿶ᡍ‫ޑ܄‬ ϩ‫݋‬Ƕ٬Ҕ global Moran’s I ᆶ Getis-Ord’s local Gi*ଞჹШࣚሌՉȐWorld Bankȑӄౚ‫ݯ‬౛ࡰ኱Ȑworld governance indicators, WGIȑύ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧ Ȑcontrol of corruptionȑǴ຾Չ‫ޜ‬໔Ծ࣬ᜢϩ‫݋‬Ȑ዗ᗺϩ‫݋‬ȑǴКၨόӕ ԃࡋύШࣚӚ୯೥ᆭ౜ຝဂᆫ‫ޑ‬ϩѲ‫ރ‬ᄊᆶᡂϯᖿ༈Ƕࣴ‫่݀ز‬ᡉҢǴ೥ ᆭ౜ຝӧ٥ࢪᆶߚࢪዴჴౢғጄൎᘉ஭Ъဂᆫቚம‫ޑ‬໺ࢉ౜ຝǶӧ٥ࢪǴ ߈Μ൳ԃٰ೥ᆭ໺ࢉᘉණ‫ޑ‬ጄൎǴ໻Ԗλ൯ࡋ‫ޑ‬ᘉ஭ǶϸϐǴߚࢪ߾ᄌᄌ ໒‫ۈ‬໺ࢉጭ‫ډۯ‬чߚᆶՋߚӚ୯ǶԿ‫ܭ‬மࡋБय़Ǵคፕ٥ࢪ‫ࣣࢪߚ܈‬Ԗ೥ ᆭဂᆫமࡋቚம‫ޑ‬ᕴᡏᖿ༈Ƕ‫ځ‬ԛǴӧଞჹ༹ዅ‫ޑ‬ဂᆫ୔ୱϩ‫߾݋‬ว౜Ǵ ‫ځ‬ᘉණጭ‫ޑۯ‬౜ຝӧኻࢪᆶчऍࢪ٠όܴᡉǴࣗԿԖဂᆫጄൎᕭλ‫ޑ‬ᖿ. ‫׫‬ዺВයǺ102 ԃ 6 Д 10 Вǹௗ‫ڙ‬тฦВයǺ103 ԃ 5 Д 20 ВǶ * ҁЎ߃ዺමว߄Ȩ‫۞ٿ‬ϦӅᆅ౛ፕᏝǺ༹ૈࡹ۬‫ݯ‬౛ȩᏢೌࣴ૸཮Ȑ2013 ԃ 4 Д 19 ВȑǶբ‫ޣ‬૱Јགᖴ‫ٿ‬Տ୓ӜቩࢗΓ൩ҁЎ‫܌‬ග‫ޑٮ‬ᆒ៘ࡰ҅ᆶࡌ᝼ǶҁЎऩԖόִ‫܈‬ ᒱᇤϐೀǴϝҗբ‫ޣ‬ԾՉॄೢǶ ** ᄃᑫύࣁШཥεᏢՉࡹᆅ౛‫س‬շ౛௲௤Ǵemail: lhc@cc.shu.edu.twǶ Ʉ1Ʉ.

(2) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ༈ǶՠࢂǴεࢩࢪ‫ޑ‬ᐞࢪᆶફՋើ߾‫׎‬ԋќ΋ঁᡉ๱‫ޑ‬ဂᆫǶԿ‫ܭ‬Ǵ༹ዅ ဂᆫமࡋ‫ޑ‬ᡂϯࢂၨλ‫ޑ‬Ƕኻࢪ‫ޑ‬௘լǵम୯ᆶчऍࢪ‫ޑ‬у৾εǵऍ୯೿ Ԗ༹ዅဂᆫமࡋᙯ১‫ޑ‬ᖿ༈Ƕϸᢀεࢩࢪ‫ޑ‬ᐞࢪᆶફՋើǴဂᆫமࡋ߾ࣁ ᅌቚ‫ޑ‬௃‫ݩ‬Ƕ [ᜢᗖຒ]Ǻ೥ᆭࣴ‫ز‬ǵ໺ࢉਏ݀ǵӦ౛ၗૻ‫س‬಍ǵ‫ޜ‬໔Ծ࣬ᜢϩ‫݋‬ǵ೥ᆭ ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧ. ൦ȃࠉِ 僸㓿攟㛇ẍἮᶨ䚜塓夾䁢ℐ䎫䣦㚫␴䴻㾇䘬⓷柴ˤ役⸜Ἦ炻ᶾ䓴⎬⚳䃉ᶵ农≃ 㕤䞗㬋冯屒僸㚱斄䘬⓷柴ˤ⛐ 1996 ⸜ᶾ䓴戨埴䷥塩 James Wolfensohn 䘬㺼婒ᷕ⮯ 屒僸栆㭼䁢䗴䕯ᷳ⼴炻⺽崟ℐ䎫⎬⚳⮵㕤屒僸㱣䎮䘬檀⹎斄㲐ˤ䓙㕤⬠埻䓴⮵㕤屒僸⓷柴䝕妋䘬徸㻠≈㶙炻ẍ⍲䚠斄↮㜸屯㕁⍾⼿䘬ὧ⇑⿏㖍䙲⡆≈炻⚈㬌憅⮵屒僸⼊ㆸ⚈䳈䘬↮㜸炻䃉婾⛐䎮婾ㆾ䴻槿䞼䨞ᶲ悥㚱⋩↮攟嵛䘬䘤⯽冯忚㬍ˤ䚖⇵憅⮵ 屒僸⼊ㆸ⚈䳈䘬䞼䨞炻⣏⣂⮯℞䞼䨞䃎溆伖㕤⎠㱽橼䲣䘬‍ℐ䦳⹎ˣ㮹ᷣ㓧㱣⁛䴙䘬⬀⛐炷Paldam, 2002炸ˣ㓧⹄ ↮ 㪲⊾䘬䦳 ⹎ 炷Arikan, 2004; Fisman & Gatti, 2002炸ˣ䴻㾇䘤⯽䘬䦳⹎ˣ婆妨冯⬿㔁炷La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, & Vishny, 1999; Treisman, 2000炸䫱⚈䳈ˤ䃞侴炻歖⮹㚱䞼䨞⮯↮㜸ᷳ慵⽫㓦伖⛐屒僸䘬ˬ⁛㝻㓰ㅱ˭炷contagion effects炸炻Ṏ⌛㝸⚳⭞屒僸䘬䎦尉⎗傥㚫⮵␐怕惘役 ⚳⭞䓊䓇⼙枧ˤ⚈㬌炻㛔䞼䨞冒屒僸℟㚱⁛㝻⿏䘬`⭂↢䘤炻⇑䓐䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸炷spatial autocorrelation炸忚埴䴻槿⿏䘬㍊䳊ˤ ⽆忶⍣䘬䞼䨞Ἦ䚳炻屒僸⁛㝻㓰ㅱ炷contagious effect of corruption炸䘬⬀⛐㗗 ⎗傥䘬ˤ㟡㒂忶⍣䚠斄㔯䌣Ἦ䚳炻℞㓗㊩䘬䎮䓙⣏农⎗㬠䲵䁢⚃溆ˤ䫔ᶨ炻嶐⚳⓮ 㤕㳣≽⛐ℐ䎫䑘⠫ᷕ炻⶚䴻忼⇘檀⹎㔜⎰䘬䉨ン炻屒僸ㆾ侭⍵屒僸䘬埴䁢炻㚫䴻䓙 ⎴㤕ᷳ攻䘬䚠Ḻ⬠佺ˣ⼤㬌ầ㓰冯⎴₽⼙枧䫱㕡⺷炻㒜㔋⇘惘役䘬⚳⭞炷Becker, Egger, & Seidel, 2009; Fisman & Miguel, 2007炸ˤ䫔Ḵ炻屒僸Ṏ⎗傥啱䓙嶐⚳⿏䘬䳬 ䷼䉗伒㳣≽忚埴㔋㑕ˤ䚠⍵⛘炻⛐恋ṃ䓙⚳晃䳬䷼㍐≽嶐⚳⎰ἄˣㇻ㑲屒僸㳣≽䘬 ⋨➇ᷕ炻屒僸䎦尉䘤䓇䘬㨇䌯ὧ⎗傥⣏ⷭ⹎⛘旵Ỷˤἳ⤪烉ᶾ䓴戨埴炷World Ʉ2Ʉ.

(3) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. Bank炸冯䴻㾇⎰ἄ冯㙐䘤⯽䳬䷼炷OECD炸⛐㜙㫸冯Ṇ㳚䘬⍵屒僸㳣≽㇨䓊䓇䘬㓰㝄炷Becker et al., 2009炸ˤ䫔ᶱ炻忷㬊屒僸咻⺞䎦尉↢䎦䘬攻㍍⍇⚈炻⇯㗗䓙㕤⛐ ⎴ᶨ⋨➇䘬㮹䛦炻㍍⍿䚠⎴䘬㔁做ㆾ㍍妠䚠斄䘬妲〗炻䓊䓇↢䚠栆Ụ䘬⍵屒僸㔯 ⊾炻⚈侴㍸⋯ㆾ⻟⊾娚⋨➇⍵屒僸䘬シ嬀冯傥≃炷Attila, 2008炸ˤ䫔⚃炻䨢攻惘役⿏炷proximity炸㚱≑㕤⡆忚ᶵ⎴⚳⭞ㆾ⛘⋨⮵⼤㬌䘬䝕妋炻ḇἧ⼿䴻㾇ㆾ㓧㱣⇞⹎ 䘬⬱㌺冯姕妰炻䈡⇍㗗⍵屒僸䘬䚠斄㓧䫾冯㍒㕥炻⎗傥㚫⬠佺ㆾầ㓰惘役⚳⭞ㆾ⛘ ⋨䴻槿䘬⼙枧炷Johnston, 1997炸ˤ 忶⍣憅⮵屒僸⁛㝻䘬䴻槿⿏䞼䨞庫⮹炷Becker et al., 2009; Das & DiRienzo, 2012; Goel & Nelson, 2007; Miguel, SalinasƮJiménez & SalinasƮJiménez, 2011炸炻Ữ忁 ṃ 䞼䨞䳸㝄 ⸦ ᷶ 悥栗䣢䡢 ⮎ 屒僸 ⛐ 䨢攻 ᷕ ℟ 㚱 ⁛ 㝻⿏ ㆾ ⢾ 㹊㓰㝄炷 spillover effects炸ˤ䃞侴炻忁ṃ䞼䨞᷎㛒憅⮵屒僸䎦尉忚埴⋨➇佌倂䘬↮㜸ˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻忶⍣ ⬠侭Ᾱ⶚䴻嫱⮎屒僸⁛㝻䎦尉䘬⬀⛐炻Ữ庫仢᷷㚱斄㶙ℍ㍊䳊屒僸佌倂⋨➇䘬䞼䨞 ˤ ⚈ 㬌炻㛔䞼䨞 ⇑ 䓐 ⛘ 䎮屯妲䲣䴙忚埴 ⋨ ➇ 䨢攻冒䚠斄 ↮ 㜸炻 ἧ 䓐 global Moran’s I 冯 Getis-Ord’s local Gi*↮㜸ᶾ䓴戨埴炷World Bank炸ℐ䎫㱣䎮㊯㧁炷world governance indicators, WGI炸ᷕ䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠炷control of corruption炸炻㭼庫ᶵ⎴⸜⹎ᷕℐ䎫⎬⚳ᷳ攻屒僸䦳⹎佌倂䘬↮Ự䉨ン冯嬲⊾嵐⊊ˤ啱䓙㛔䞼䨞䘬 ↮㜸炻䫮侭娎⚾㩊槿ℐ䎫屒僸⁛㝻䎦尉䘬⬀⛐冯⏎炻᷎䓴⭂↢佌倂⋨➇㇨⊭⏓䘬⚳ ⭞炻ẍ⍲役⋩⣂⸜Ἦℐ䎫屒僸佌倂⛐䭬⚵冯⻟⹎ᶲ䘬嬲⊾嵐⊊ˤ. ຯȃೳᆻ༈ࢗ‫ـंޟ‬ ⃀䭉⛐䎮婾Ⰼ㫉ᶲ炻⬠侭Ᾱ⮵㕤屒僸䎦尉⁛㝻䘬婾徘⋩↮娛䳘ˤỮ㗗⛐䚠斄䘬㔯䌣ᷕ炻䈡⇍憅⮵屒僸䎦尉⁛㝻ㆾ咻⺞䘬⮎嫱䞼䨞⇯䚠䔞仢᷷炷Aleman, Davila, Jetter, Montoya, & Morales, 2014; Becker et al., 2009; Das & DiRienzo, 2012; Goel & Nelson, 2007; Miguel et. al., 2011; Quazi, Langley, & Till, 2013炸ˤ⛐忁ṃ憅⮵屒僸⁛ 㝻ㆾ咻⺞䘬㚱旸䞼䨞䔞ᷕ炻䞼䨞侭Ᾱᷣ天㗗`⭂㝸⋨➇䘬㓧㱣㔯⊾ẍ嶐⚳⓮㤕冯䣦㚫㳣≽䁢Ḻ≽䘬⨺ṳ炻⚈䁢⎬⚳冯惘役⋨➇ㆾ⚳⭞䘬Ḻ≽柣䷩炻ἧ⼿屒僸埴䁢德忶 ᶨ䧖⬠佺ㆾ㧉ầ䘬㓰ㅱ炻嶐崲⚳⭞ㆾ⋨➇䘬䓴䶂徸㻠㺚ℍ惘役䘬⛘⋨ˤ屒僸⁛㝻䘬 ⎗傥⚈䳈ᷣ天㚱ẍᶳ⸦䧖㕡⺷炷Becker et al., 2009烊廱⺽冒⹾冰ᷕˣ⏪ἑ⬱炻 2013烉40-41炸烉(1)䓙㕤⎬⋨➇ᷳ攻䘬屧㖻㳣≽⶚忼⇘檀⹎㔜⎰炻⛐忁ṃ屧㖻Ḻ≽ ⭮普䘬⛘⋨ᷕ炻⚈叿⎴㤕ᷳ攻䘬⬠佺ˣầ㓰冯⎴₽⼙枧炻ἧ⼿屒僸䎦尉㒜㔋䘬㨇䌯. Ʉ3Ʉ.

(4) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. 㚜檀ˤἳ⤪烉⛐⚳晃屧㖻Ḻ≽ᷕ炻㝸ṃ庫㶭⹱䘬⚳⭞℞屧㖻㕡⺷炻⎗傥㚫⚈叿庫屒僸䘬屧㖻⮵尉攟㗪攻ᷳ⼙枧炻侴徸㻠廱䁢屒僸烊(2)屒僸⎗傥啱䓙嶐⚳⿏䘬䳬䷼䉗伒㳣≽㔋㑕炻⎴㗪⛐恋ṃ䓙⚳晃䳬䷼㍐≽嶐⚳⎰ἄˣㇻ㑲屒僸㳣≽䘬⋨➇ᷕ炻屒僸䎦尉㒜㔋䘬⎗傥⿏⮯⣏ⷭ⹎⛘旵Ỷ烊(3)忷㬊屒僸咻⺞䎦尉↢䎦䘬攻㍍⍇⚈炻⇯㗗䓙㕤⛐⎴ᶨ⋨➇䘬㔯⭀炻㍍⍿䚠⎴䘬㔁做ㆾ㍍妠䚠斄䘬⚳晃㚫嬘炻䓊䓇Ḯᶨ䧖䚠⎴ 䘬⍵屒僸㔯⊾ˤἳ⤪烉Ἦ冒⎴ᶨᾳ⋨➇䘬㔯⭀⎗傥⍫冯䚠⎴䘬⍵屒僸㚫嬘炻㍍⍿䚠 Ụ 䘬 ⹱ 㓧㔁做炻 ⚈ 侴㍸ ⋯ Ḯ 娚 ⋨ ➇ ⍵ 屒僸䘬シ嬀冯傥 ≃ 烊 (4) 䨢攻惘役⿏炷proximity炸㚱≑㕤⡆忚ᶵ⎴⚳⭞ㆾ⛘⋨⮵⼤㬌䘬䝕妋炻ḇἧ⼿䴻㾇ㆾ㓧㱣⇞⹎䘬 ⬱㌺炻枿⍿惘役⚳⭞ㆾ⛘⋨䘬⼙枧ˤ⚈叿ᶲ徘䎮婾䘬㍐婾炻㝸⛘➇ᷳ屒僸䎦尉冯␐ 怕惘役⋨➇屒僸䎦尉⼤㬌⼙枧䘬⎗傥⿏ὧ䁢⣏⡆ˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻⚳⭞冯℞惘役⚳⭞ᷳ攻屒僸䘬䦳⹎炻ㆾ侭⛘㕡㓧⹄冯惘役⛘㕡㓧⹄ᷳ攻屒僸䘬䦳⹎炻⬀⛐叿⎗傥䘬䚠Ụ ⿏炻ḇ⚈㬌⛐䨢攻ᶲ⏰䎦屒僸ㆾ⹱㻼䘬佌倂⋨➇ˤ 㟡㒂ᶲ徘㇨㍐婾䘬`⭂炻Goel 冯 Nelson炷2007炸ἧ䓐伶⚳ 1995 军 2004 ⸜攻 ⎬ⶆ䘬䚠斄屯㕁忚埴↮㜸炻娎⚾㩊㷔㗗⏎屒僸䎦尉⛐伶⚳⎬ⶆᷳ攻℟㚱⁛㝻≃ˤ Goel ℑ ỵ ⬠ 侭䘬䩳婾 ➢ 䢶 ⛐ 㕤炻䣦㚫⿏䘬 Ḻ ≽ ⮯ ⎗ 傥 ⮶ 农屒僸埴䁢䘬 ⁛ 㑕炷Manski, 2000炸ˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻䔞娎⚾埴屬冯㓞屬䘬ℑ㕡炻⛐䝕妋⇘惘役䘬⎬ⶆᷳ ᷕ炻℞ṾṢ⛐⓮㤕㳣≽ᷕ忚埴栆Ụ䘬屬屪埴䁢㗪炻⮯㚱⎗傥㚜⣏入⛘⽆ḳ屒僸䘬埴䁢ˤ⚈㬌炻㇨媪屒僸⁛㝻ㆾ㒜㔋䘬䎦尉炻⯙㗗惘役⎬ⶆᷳ攻⚈Ḻ≽侴䓊䓇⬠佺ˣầ 㓰䘬ˬ㭿惘屒僸㓰ㅱ˭炷the border corruption effects炸ˤ⛐忁栆㓰ㅱ䘬⼙枧ᶳ炻㼃 ⛐䘬埴屬侭⮯㚫⍣㍊⮳㚜⣂䘬屬屪㨇㚫烊侴㚱シ⚾㍍㓞屬屪䘬℔⊁Ṣ⒉炻⇯㚫㍉⍾ 庫⮔檮䘬➟㱽㧁㸾ㆾ䓂军旵Ỷ䚠斄㆚嗽䘬䦳⹎ˤ⛐ Goel 冯 Nelson 䘬↮㜸ᷕ炻塓妋慳嬲㔠䁢⎬ⶆ℔⊁Ṣ⒉⚈屒僸埴䁢塓⇌↹䘬㭼䌯烊⛐㍏⇞℞Ṿ嬲㔠䘬ね㱩ᶳ炻屒僸 ⛐伶⚳⎬ⶆ䡢⮎⬀⛐叿⁛㝻䘬䎦尉ˤ䔞㝸ᶨⶆ惘役ᷳⶆ㓧⹄⚈屒僸侴塓⇌↹䘬Ṣ㔠㭼䌯庫檀㗪炻娚ⶆⶆℏ⚈屒僸⇌↹䘬℔⊁Ṣ⒉㭼䌯ḇ庫檀ˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻⎬ⶆ㓧⹄冯惘役ⶆ㓧⹄䘬屒僸䦳⹎⏰䎦䴙妰ᶲ栗叿䘬㬋䚠斄炻⚈㬌嫱㖶屒僸⁛㝻䘬䎦尉⛐伶⚳⛘ 㕡㓧⹄䡢⮎⬀⛐ˤ䃞侴炻娚䞼䨞ᷣ天㗗憅⮵伶⚳⛘㕡㓧⹄䘬↮㜸炻⚈㬌䃉㱽栆㍐军 ⚳晃䘬Ⰼ㫉ˤ㬌⢾炻娚䞼䨞᷎㛒憅⮵⒒ṃⶆ㓧⹄䓊䓇屒僸⁛㝻䘬佌倂䎦尉忚埴↮ 㜸炻⚈㬌䃉㱽⼿䞍䘤䓇屒僸⁛㝻䘬佌倂ỵ伖ˤ 军㕤嶐⚳屒僸䎦尉⁛㝻䘬䞼䨞Ṏ⋩↮䦨⮹ˤ椾⃰炻Attila炷2008炸憅⮵ℐ䎫 120 ᾳ攳䘤ᷕ冯⶚攳䘤⚳⭞ᷳ屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠忚埴↮㜸ˤ℞䞼䨞䳸㝄嫱⮎Ḯ屒僸䎦尉䘬⢾ 㹊㓰㝄炻ḇ⯙㗗㝸⚳ㆾ⛘⋨䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠冯惘役⋨➇䘬㊯㔠㗗⛐䨢攻ᶲ㗗䚠斄. Ʉ4Ʉ.

(5) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. 䘬烊侴ᶼ屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫Ỷ䘬⚳⭞冯⛘⋨炻℞惘役䘬⋨➇堐䎦ḇ庫ⶖˤ䃞侴炻 Attila ⛐䞼䨞ᷕ炻᷎㛒㊯㖶⎗傥䓊䓇屒僸佌倂䎦尉䘬℟橼ỵ伖ˤ℞㫉炻Becker 䫱Ṣ 炷2009炸憅⮵ 123 ᾳ䴻㾇橼忚埴㨓㕟⿏䘬↮㜸炻ἧ䓐䘬塓妋慳嬲㔠䁢⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼ 炷Transparency International炸㭷⸜⭂㛇㇨℔Ự䘬ℐ䎫屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠炷corruption perception index, CPI炸ˤ℞↮㜸䳸㝄栗䣢炻⛐㍏⇞Ṣ㮹⸛⛯㇨⼿ˣ冒䃞屯㸸忚↢⎋ 屧㖻䘬ὅ⬀⹎ˣ屧㖻冒䓙䦳⹎ˣ㊩临➟㓧䦳⹎ˣ㕘㔁⼺㭼䌯䫱嬲㔠ᶳ炻屒僸䘬䎦尉㚫⽆ᶨᾳ⚳⭞㒜㔋⇘℞惘役䘬⚳⭞ˤ㬌⢾娚䞼䨞怬䘤䎦炻⛐℟㚱䚠⎴㓧㱣㔯⊾䘬⋨ ➇ᷕ炻屒僸䎦尉咻⺞䘬䦳⹎㚫晐叿䨢攻嶅暊䘬⡆≈侴嵐䶑ˤBecker 䫱⬠侭炷2009烉 309炸⛐娚䞼䨞䘬䳸婾ᷕ⻟婧炻䔞㝸ᾳ⚳⭞䘬㶭⹱䦳⹎㍸⋯㗪炻℞惘役䘬⚳⭞ḇ⎗ 傥⚈㬌㓡┬屒僸䘬䎦尉ˤ䃞侴炻冯⇵徘䘬䞼䨞䚠Ụ炻Becker 䫱⬠侭⛐娚枭䞼䨞ᷕ炻 ᷎㛒㶙ℍ↮㜸᷎㊯㖶⒒ṃ⋨➇⛐䨢攻ᶲ⏰䎦屒僸ㆾ䘬佌倂䎦尉ˤ 役㛇ᶨ䭯㚱斄㕤屒僸⁛㝻䘬䞼䨞炻⇯㗗 Miguel 䫱⬠侭炷2011炸ẍ⚳晃德㖶䳬 ䷼䘬屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠䁢塓妋慳嬲㔠炻⛐㍏⇞℞Ṿ䚠斄㓧㱣ˣ䣦㚫冯䴻㾇䘬㡅ẞᶳ炻憅 ⮵ᶾ䓴 171 ᾳ⚳⭞㇨忚埴䘬↮㜸ˤ娚䞼䨞䳸㝄栗䣢炻Ṣ⛯⚳ℏ䓇䓊㮃柵ˣ悥ⶪ⊾䦳 ⹎冯㓧⹄屒僸䘬䦳⹎⏰⍵⎹䘬斄Ὢ烊侴⮵冒䃞屯㸸忚↢⎋屧㖻䘬ὅ⬀⹎炻⍲䣦㚫ᷣ 佑⇞⹎ˣ㱽⚳㬾㮹㶝㸸⇯㗗⏰䎦冯⚳⭞屒僸䦳⹎㬋䚠斄ˤ㬌⢾炻Miguel 䫱Ṣ怬䘤䎦㓧㱣䨑⭂⹎㗗⚳⭞屒僸䦳⹎䘬慵天⼙枧⚈䳈ˤ晾䃞娚䞼䨞䳸㝄栗䣢炻ᶾ䓴⎬⚳ᷳ 攻屒僸䘬䨢攻⁛㝻䎦尉⛐䴙妰↮㜸ᶲ᷎ᶵ栗叿炻Ữṵ䃞䘤䎦㝸ṃ⚳⭞䘬屒僸䦳⹎冯惘役⚳⭞䚠Ụˤ䃞侴炻娚䞼䨞ṵ冲㛒憅⮵⎬⚳屒僸䦳⹎忚埴䳘䶣䘬⋨➇佌倂⿏䘬↮ 㜸炻ẍ䓴⭂↢屒僸⁛㝻⎗傥䘤䓇䘬佌倂⋨➇ˤ Aleman 䫱⬠侭炷2014炸㬋⛐忚埴䘬䞼䨞炻⇯㗗ẍ伶⚳⁛䴙➢慹㚫炷Heritage Foundation炸䴻㾇冒䓙⹎炷index of economic freedom炸㊯㧁ᷕ䘬⃵㕤屒僸㊯㧁炷freedom from corruption炸䁢ὅ嬲㔠ˤ⛐㍏⇞Ṣ⎋㔠ˣ㓧⹄㓗↢ˣ悥ⶪ⊾䦳⹎ˣ廠 ℍˣ㔁做䦳⹎ˣ⨺橼冒䓙冯廠↢䫱嬲㔠ᶳ炻憅⮵ 120 ᾳ⚳⭞ 1995 军 2012 ⸜嶐㗪攻䘬屯㕁忚埴↮㜸ˤ䳸㝄娚䞼䨞䘤䎦炻䔞惘⚳䘬⃵㕤屒僸㊯㧁庫檀㗪炻塓奨⮇䘬⚳⭞ ᷳ⃵㕤屒僸㊯㧁ḇ㚫庫檀ˤℵ㫉⌘嫱 Becker 䫱⬠侭䘬䘤䎦炻屒僸䘬䎦尉㚱⢾㹊䘬㓰㝄ˤᶵ忶冯 Becker 䫱⬠侭炷2009炸ẍ⍲ Miguel 䫱⬠侭炷2011炸䘬䞼䨞䚠⎴炻娚䞼䨞᷎㛒䓴⭂↢屒僸⢾㹊⁛㝻䘬⎗傥⋨➇ˤ Das 冯 DiRienzo炷2012炸ἧ䓐⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼ 1998 军 2011 ⸜䘬屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠炻憅⮵朆㳚冯ᷕ㜙⎬⚳忚埴屒僸䎦尉䨢攻怆㷃䘬䞼䨞ˤDas ℑỵ⬠侭Ṏ⽆屒僸⁛㝻䘬䎮婾↢䘤炻`⭂屒僸⁛㝻䦳⹎㚫⚈叿⎬⚳椾悥䘬嶅暊侴怆㷃ˤ℞䞼䨞䳸㝄嫱⮎炻屒. Ʉ5Ʉ.

(6) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. 僸⛐朆㳚冯ᷕ㜙⎬⚳ᷕ℟㚱䨢攻⢾㹊䘬䎦尉炻侴ᶼ屒僸䎦尉䘬⼙枧≃⎗⶚崭忶 2,700 劙⒑ˤQuazi 䫱⬠侭炷2013炸⇯㗗憅⮵⋿Ṇ冯㜙Ṇ䘬屒僸⁛㝻≃忚埴↮㜸炻娚䞼䨞Ṏ䘤䎦屒僸䘬⁛㝻≃㚫⚈䁢嶅暊䘬⡆≈侴怆㷃ˤ㬌⢾炻娚䞼䨞ḇ䘤䎦屒僸䎦尉䘬⁛㝻䌯⛐㜙Ṇ炷庫ᶵ屒僸䘬⋨➇炸㗗庫⻙䘬ˤỮ㗗炻ᶲ徘忁ṃ䞼䨞Ṏ㛒娛䳘䓴 ⭂↢朆㳚ˣᷕ㜙ˣ㜙Ṇ冯⋿Ṇ屒僸佌倂䘬⋨➇烊侴ᶼ℞䞼䨞䭬⚵⁭旸㕤ℐ䎫⯨悐⋨ ➇炻᷎㛒䲵ℍℐ䎫⎬⚳ˤ 䵄⎰侴妨炻忶⍣憅⮵屒僸⁛㝻䘬䴻槿䞼䨞ᶵ⣂炻ᷣ天ẍ伶⚳⛘㕡㓧⹄冯⚳晃䞼䨞䁢ᷣˤ昌Ḯ Miguel 䫱⬠侭炷2011炸䘬䞼䨞᷎㛒嫱⮎屒僸䘬⁛㝻⿏ᷳ⢾烊Goel 冯 Nelson 炷 2007 炸 ˣ Attila 炷 2008 炸 ˣ Becker 䫱 ⬠ 侭炷 2009 炸 ˣ Das 冯 DiRienzo 炷2012炸ˣQuazi 䫱⬠侭炷2013炸冯 Aleman 䫱⬠侭炷2014炸䘬䞼䨞炻䘮偗⭂屒僸䨢攻⁛㝻䎦尉⬀⛐䘬⎗傥⿏ˤ忁ṃ䞼䨞䘬➢㛔`⭂䘮䁢炻屒僸䘬埴䁢冯䎦尉㗗⎗傥德忶⎬䧖ᶵ⎴䘬䣦㚫Ḻ≽⼊⺷炻䓊䓇嶐⋨➇䘬⢾㹊⁛㝻䎦尉ˤἳ⤪烉A ⚳冯 B ⚳ 㗗惘役⚳⭞炻侴 A ⚳㗗檀⹎屒僸䘬⚳⭞炻B ⚳⎗傥㚫⚈䁢屧㖻㳣≽ˣṌ㳩Ḻ≽侴 ⍿⇘⼙枧炻忚侴ḇ䓊䓇庫屒僸䘬ね㱩ˤ忁ṃ䞼䨞⛐↮㜸ᷕ㇨㍉䓐䘬㕡⺷炻ᷣ天ẍ䚠惘⚳⭞㗗⏎䘮䘤䓇䚠⎴䎦尉炻䓴⭂䁢屒僸⎗傥䘤䓇⁛㝻⋨➇ˤ䃞侴忁ṃ忶⍣䘬䞼䨞炻德忶䷥橼屯㕁䘬徜㬠↮㜸炻䡢⮎㚱䘤䎦惘役⚳⭞屒僸䦳⹎䘬栗叿䚠斄⿏炻Ữ㗗䘮㛒㶙ℍ↮㜸⒒ṃ⋨➇⬀⛐屒僸佌倂䎦尉炻᷎ᶼ⽆㛒憅⮵ℐ䎫屒僸䎦尉忚埴嶐㗪攻䘬䨢攻㭼庫ˤ⚈㬌炻㛔䞼䨞ⶴ㛃⇑䓐⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙ᷕ⋨➇佌倂↮㜸䘬≇傥炻憅⮵ℐ 䎫⎬⚳䘬屒僸䘬佌倂䎦尉忚埴嶐㗪攻䘬⋨➇佌倂↮㜸ˤ᷎憅⮵ℐ䎫屒僸䘬佌倂⋨ ➇炻忚埴㶙ℍ䘬㍊䳊↮㜸炻ẍὧ䓴⭂↢ℐ䎫屒僸佌倂䘬⋨➇ˤ侴䞼䨞䳸㝄⎗㍸ὃ⚳ 晃䣦㚫冯䚠斄⍵屒僸䳬䷼炻㛒Ἦ⛐忚埴⍵屒僸忳≽夷∫㗪炻姕⭂㧁䘬⚳⭞ㆾ⋨➇㗪 ἄ䁢⍫侫ˤ. ୤ȃၥਟᇄϷ‫ݙ‬П‫ݲ‬ ⛐⇑䓐⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙忚埴䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸㗪炻暨天Ⱄ⿏冯⛘⚾屯㕁䘬䳸⎰炻⎴ 㗪㍉⍾⎰怑䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸㕡㱽ˤ㛔㭝⮯憅⮵䞼䨞㇨ἧ䓐䘬Ⱄ⿏冯䨢攻屯㕁炻ẍ ⍲㇨ἧ䓐䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸㕡㱽忚埴娛䳘䘬婒㖶ˤ. Ʉ6Ʉ.

(7) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. Ιȃं‫ـ‬ၥਟġġ 㛔䞼䨞ἧ䓐䘬屯㕁↮⇍䁢Ⱄ⿏冯䨢攻屯㕁ℑ⣏栆ˤ⛐Ⱄ⿏屯㕁㕡朊炻ᶨ凔䴻槿⿏䞼䨞㇨㍉䓐䘬屒僸㷔慷㊯㧁⣏农ᶲ㚱ℑ䧖烉⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼䘬ℐ䎫屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠炻冯ᶾ䓴戨埴炷World Bank炸䘬ℐ䎫㱣䎮㊯㧁炷world governance indicators, WGI炸ᷕ 屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠炷control of corruption炸ˤ⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼⇯⽆ 1995 ⸜攳⥳炻㟡㒂⎬⚳ ẩ㤕⭞ˣ⬠侭冯⚳ね↮㜸⮰⭞炻憅⮵⎬⚳℔⊁Ṣ⒉冯㓧㱣Ṣ䈑濰㻼䦳⹎䘬婧㞍ᷕ㓞普冯屒僸㚱斄姽₡ˤ㭷⸜䲵ℍ姽㭼䘬㊯㧁㚱ṃ澵⎴炻ᷣ天㗗㍉䓐 11 ᾳ婧㞍㨇㥳ᷕ 䘬 13 ᾳᶵ⎴䘬婧㞍㔠㒂ˤ德忶㔜⎰Ḯ⣂慵屯㕁Ἦ㸸䘬㕡⺷炻屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠性⃵╖ ᶨ屯㕁Ἦ㸸⚈ῷ夳ㆾ婧㞍㕡㱽䘬⓷柴炻侴⮵䈡⭂⚳⭞屒僸䦳⹎ ↢拗Ộ冯婌⇌炻⚈ 侴㍸檀Ḯ㭷ᾳ⚳⭞姽㭼䘬⎗ᾉ⹎ˤ娚㊯㔠䁢 0 ↮⇘ 10 ↮䘬慷堐炻⊭㊔⮷㔠溆⼴ᶨ ỵˤ屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠䘬↮㔠崲檀炻ẋ堐娚⚳⭞ㆾ⛘⋨崲㶭⹱炻↮㔠崲Ỷ⇯ẋ堐娚⚳⭞ ㆾ⛘⋨崲屒僸ˤ䓙㕤㭷⸜⭂㛇忚埴ℐ䎫䘤ⶫ炻䎦⛐ㆸ䁢⺋㲃塓䓐Ἦ堉慷⎬⚳ㆾ⛘⋨ 屒僸ね㱩䘬慵天㊯㧁炷冢䀋德㖶䳬䷼炻2013炸ˤ 㬌⢾炻ᶾ䓴戨埴䘬ℐ䎫㱣䎮㊯㧁ᷣ天㗗䓐ẍ⋼≑娚䳬䷼䚠斄╖ỵ炻瀈妋⎬⚳㓧 ⹄䳬䷼䘬㓰澯ˣ㱣瀲⍲屒僸䫱䎦尉ˤ娚㊯㧁ᷣ天⊭⏓ℕ⣏㱣䎮朊⎹炷Kaufmann, Kraay, & Mastruzzi, 2010炸烉 1. 妨婾㪲冯婚屔炷voice and accountability炸烉ᷣ天㗗㷔慷ᶨᾳ⚳⭞℔㮹傥⍫冯 ᷎怠冱㓧⹄䘬冒䓙䦳⹎炻ẍ⍲妨婾ˣ普㚫䳸䣦ˣ冯㕘倆䫱冒䓙䘬䦳⹎ˤ 2. 㓧㱣䨑⭂冯㜄䳽㙜≃炷political stability and absence of violence炸烉ᷣ天㗗㷔慷㮹䛦⮵㕤傥⏎德忶朆ㅚ㓧ㆾ㙜≃ㇳ㭝炷⊭㊔⿸⾾ᷣ佑炸Ἦ≽㎾ㆾ㍐侣㓧⹄ 䘬ン⹎ˤ 3. 㓧⹄㓰傥炷government effectiveness炸烉ᷣ天㗗㷔慷℔ℙ㚵⊁䘬⑩岒ˣ℔⊁ Ṣ⒉䘬䳈岒ˣ⮵㕤㓧㱣⡻≃䘬䌐䩳䦳⹎ˣ㓧䫾⇞⭂冯➟埴䘬⑩岒ˣ㓧⹄㈧媦 ➟埴䘬⎗ᾉ⹎ˤ 4. 䭉⇞⑩岒炷regulatory quality炸烉ᷣ天㗗㷔慷㓧⹄⇞⭂冯䨑⭂➟埴㓧䫾冯㱽夷炻ẍ⍲Ὣ忚䥩Ṣ悐攨䘤⯽䘬傥≃ˤ 5. 㱽㱣炷rule of law炸烉ᷣ天㗗㷔慷䣦㚫ㆸ⒉ᾉả᷎思⬰夷䭬䘬䦳⹎炻䈡⇍㗗 ⣹䲬Ⰽ埴ˣ嬎⮇冯㱽昊䘬⑩岒ˣẍ⍲䘤䓇㙜≃冯䉗伒䘬⎗傥䦳⹎ˤ 6. 屒僸㍏⇞炷control of corruption炸烉ᷣ天㗗㷔慷⇑䓐℔㪲≃媨⍾䥩Ṣ⇑䙲䘬䦳⹎炻⊭㊔䦳⹎庽⽖冯♜慵䘬屒僸埴䁢炻ẍ⍲䈡㪲昶䳂冯䥩Ṣ⇑䙲普⛀⮵⤒. Ʉ7Ʉ.

(8) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ⍾⚳⭞⇑䙲䘬䦳⹎ˤ 㚱斄ᶲ徘㱣䎮㊯㧁ℕ⣏朊⎹䘬屯㕁Ἦ㸸冯㷔慷䘬㤪⾝炻ᶾ䓴戨埴䘬⭀㕡䵚枩䘮㚱娛䳘䘬婒㖶ˤ1 椾⃰炻℞姽慷㱣䎮㊯㧁忁ṃᶵ⎴朊⎹䘬屯㕁Ἦ㸸ℙ妰 31 ᾳ炻ᷣ 天㚱ẍᶳ⚃⣏栆炷Kaufmann et al., 2010炸烉 1. ⭞㇞冯ẩ㤕䘬婧㞍炷surveys of households and firms炸烉ℙ㚱ḅᾳ屯㕁Ἦ㸸炻 ⊭ ㊔朆㳚㔜橼䉨㱩婧㞍炷 afrobarometer surveys 炸味㳃㘖 ᶾ 䓴㮹シ婧㞍炷Gallup world poll炸ˣℐ䎫䪞䇕≃婧㞍⟙⏲炷global competitiveness report survey炸䫱ˤ 2. ⓮㤕妲〗䘬㍸ὃ侭炷commercial business information providers炸烉ℙ㚱⚃ᾳ 屯㕁Ἦ㸸炻⊭㊔䴻㾇⬠Ṣ屯妲䣦炷Economist Intelligence Unit炸ˣℐ䎫德夾㨇㥳炷Global Insight炸 ˣ㓧㱣桐晒㚵⊁㨇㥳炷Political Risk Services炸䫱ˤ 3. 朆㓧⹄䳬䷼炷non-governmental organizations炸烉ℙ㚱⋩ᾳ屯㕁Ἦ㸸炻⊭㊔ℐ 䎫婈ᾉ炷Global Integrity炸ˣ冒䓙ᷳ⭞炷Freedom House炸ˣ䃉⚳䓴姀侭倗䚇䳬䷼炷Reporters Without Borders炸䫱ˤ 4. ℔悐攨䳬䷼炷public sector organizations炸烉ℙ㚱ℓᾳ屯㕁Ἦ㸸炻⊭㊔ᶾ䓴戨埴冯⋨➇戨埴䘬⚳⭞㓧䫾冯⇞⹎⿏姽Ộ炷CPIA assessments炸ˣ廱✳䴻㾇⚳ ⭞ 䘤 ⯽ ⟙ ⏲ 炷 the EBRD Transition Report 炸ˣ 㱽 ⚳ 慹圵㨇㥳㨼㟰屯㕁悐炷French Ministry of Finance Institutional Profiles Database炸䫱ˤ 忁ṃᶵ⎴朊⎹↮㔠䘬妰䬿ᷣ天㗗德忶ẍᶳ⸦ᾳ㬍樇炷Kaufmann et al., 2010炸ˤ 椾⃰炻↮⇍⮯⎬⇍䘬屯㕁Ἦ㸸㊯⭂䴎䚠斄䘬朊⎹ˤ℞㫉炻⮯㭷ᾳ⍇⃰䘬屯㕁廱㎃ㆸ 䁢 0 军 1 䘬⯢⹎炻↮㔠崲檀堐䣢℞堐䎦崲⤥ˤἳ⤪㝸枭婧㞍䘬屯㕁ἧ䓐 1 ⇘ 4 䘬⯢ ⹎慷堐炻⛐⍇⃰屯㕁墉 2 忁ᾳ⯢⹎ῤ炻⮯德忶炷2炼㚨⮷ῤ炸ɬ炷㚨⣏ῤ炼㚨⮷ ῤ炸烌炷2炼1炸ɬ炷4炼1炸烌0.333 Ἦ忚埴㎃䬿ˤ⤪㝄ᶨᾳ屯㕁Ἦ㸸㍸ὃ崭忶ᶨᾳ ẍᶲ䘬㷔慷⓷柴炻恋湤⮯㍉䓐忁ṃ柴枭䫼㟰䘬⸛⛯ῤˤ㚨⼴⇑䓐ᶵ⎗奨㷔ㆸ↮㧉✳ 炷unobserved components model, UCM炸㚧㭷ᶨᾳ屯㕁Ἦ㸸ᷕᾳ⇍㊯㧁䘬⸛⛯ῤ忚埴≈㪲炻᷎憅⮵㭷ᾳ朊⎹⇑䓐ᶵ⎗奨㷔ㆸ↮㧉✳炻⺢㥳↢ὅ㒂㧁㸾ⷠン↮惵ˣ⸛⛯ ῤ䁢 0ˣᶼ 1 ᾳ㧁㸾ⶖ䘬㔠ῤ炷䓙 -2.5 军 2.5炸ˤ妰䬿↢䘬㔠ῤ崲⣏炻堐䣢娚⚳⛐ 娚朊⎹䘬堐䎦崲Ἓˤ㛔䞼䨞䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠炻Ṏ㗗⇑䓐ᶲ徘㕡㱽妰䬿侴⼿ˤ 1. 㚱斄ᶾ䓴戨埴ℐ䎫㱣䎮㊯㧁ᷕ⎬朊⎹䘬䚠斄屯㕁⹓冯㷔慷柴枭炻ẍ⍲娚㊯㧁⎬朊⎹妰䬿䘬㕡㱽炻⎗⍫侫ẍᶳ⭀㕡䵚枩烉 http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#homeˤ. Ʉ8Ʉ.

(9) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. 䓙㕤⇵徘ℑ枭㷔慷屒僸䘬㊯㧁䚠斄⿏䚠䔞䘬檀炷Pellegrini & Gerlagh, 2008炸炻姙⣂䞼䨞⣂⁭㍉䓐℞ᷕᶨ䧖㊯㧁忚埴↮㜸ˤ≈ẍ㛔䞼䨞ἧ䓐䨢攻佌倂↮㜸㕡㱽炻劍 ↮㜸㧋㛔ᷕ䃉屯㕁䘬⚳⭞忶⣂炻⮯⼙枧↮㜸䳸㝄䘬䱦䡢⿏ˤ⚈㬌炻⎬⚳屒僸㊯㧁䘬 ⬴㔜䦳⹎ㆸ䁢怠⍾屯㕁䘬斄挝ˤ侴ℐ䎫㱣䎮㊯㧁ᷕ㚱斄屒僸㍏⇞䘬姽Ộ炻℞㧋㛔㵝味 212 ᾳ⚳⭞␴⛘⋨炻庫⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼ᷳ屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠㇨㵝味䘬 176 ᾳἮ⼿⬴㔜ˤ 㬌⢾炻屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠⛐⎬⸜攻㇨⊭⏓䘬⚳⭞㔠䚖ḇ庫⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼ᷳ屒僸⌘尉㊯㔠 Ἦ⼿⬴⁁ˤ㓭㛔䞼䨞⛐Ⱄ⿏↮㜸屯㕁㕡朊㍉䓐 1996 军 2011 ⸜ᶾ䓴戨埴䘬屒僸㍏⇞ ㊯㔠屯㕁ˤ䃞侴炻䓙㕤⛐ 2003 ⸜ᷳ⇵炻娚㊯㧁䁢ℑ⸜ᶨ㫉䘬婧㞍炻⚈㬌 2003 ⸜ᷳ ⇵䘬屯㕁⁭㵝味 1996ˣ1998ˣ2000 冯 2002 ⸜烊娚枭婧㞍㕤 2003 ⸜⼴炻⇯㗗㭷⸜ 䘮㚱屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠䘬屯㕁ˤ军㕤䨢攻屯㕁㕡朊炻ᷣ天䁢ᶾ䓴 252 ᾳ⚳⭞䘬⚾Ⰼ屯㕁ˤⰔ⿏冯䨢攻屯㕁炻ᷣ天㗗德忶⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙≈ẍ㔜⎰炻侴⼴忚埴䨢攻冒䚠斄↮ 㜸炷⍰䧙䅙溆↮㜸炸ˤ. Πȃު໢ՌࣺᜰϷ‫ݙ‬ȞዥᘈϷ‫ݙ‬ȟġġ Cliff 冯 Ord炷1981炸䓴⭂䨢攻冒䚠斄䁢烉ˬ`姕ᶨᾳ⛘⋨䘬䎦尉冯℞惘役⛘⋨ 䘬䎦尉㚜䚠Ụㆾ㚜ᶵ䚠Ụ炻⇯䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬䎦尉ὧ⬀⛐ˤ˭㎃妨ᷳ炻䨢攻冒䚠斄⊭ ㊔ℑ䧖ᶵ⎴䘬䉨㱩烉(1)劍冯惘役⛘⋨䘬䚠Ụ䦳⹎檀炻冯朆惘役⛘⋨䘬䚠Ụ䦳⹎ Ỷ炻⇯Ⱄ㬋⎹䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄烊(2)劍冯惘役⛘⋨䘬䚠Ụ䦳⹎Ỷ炻冯朆惘役⛘⋨䘬䚠 Ụ䦳⹎檀炻⇯㗗屈⎹䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄ˤ⚈㬌炻䨢攻冒䚠斄ᷣ天㗗䓐Ἦ婒㖶奨⮇⛘⋨冯 ℞惘役⛘⋨䘬䚠Ụ⿏烊䔞奨⮇⛘⋨冯℞惘役⛘⋨䚠Ụ⹎庫檀㗪炻ὧ⼰㚱⎗傥㚱⁛㝻 ㆾ㒜㔋㓰㝄䘬㓰ㅱ⬀⛐ˤ 䨢攻屯㕁ᷣ天⊭㊔溆⛘⚾冯朊⛘⚾ˤ㛔䞼䨞⮵尉䁢ᶾ䓴 252 ᾳ⚳⭞炻⚈㬌ẍ朊 ⛘⚾Ἦ㩊⭂⎬⚳屒僸䦳⹎䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄䉨ンˤ朊屯㕁䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄↮䁢ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄炷 global spatial autocorrelation 炸冯 ⋨ ➇ 䨢攻冒䚠斄炷 local spatial autocorrelation炸ˤ椾⃰炻ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬≇傥⛐㕤㍷徘㝸䧖䨢攻䎦尉䘬㔜橼↮ⶫ 䉨㱩炻⇌㕟㬌䎦尉㗗⏎㚱倂普䈡⿏⬀⛐ˤ䃞侴炻ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄᷎ᶵ傥㖶䡢⛘㧁⭂ ↢佌倂䎦尉䘤䓇⛐⒒ṃỵ伖炻⚈㬌䞼䨞侭枰⇑䓐⋨➇䨢攻冒䚠斄㕡傥㖶䡢䓴⭂↢䨢攻䎦尉䘬倂普ỵ伖ˤ ⛐忚ℍ䨢攻妰慷ᷕ㚱斄䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬↮㜸⇵炻䞼䨞侭⽭枰姕⭂䨢攻≈㪲䞑昋Ἦ 䓴⭂䨢攻ᷕ╖⃫ᷳ攻䘬ỵ伖惘役⿏炷location proximity炸ˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻德忶娚䞑昋䘬姕⭂炻㭷ᾳ╖⃫䘬惘役╖⃫⎗ẍ塓䓴⭂㶭㤂ˤ䨢攻≈㪲䞑昋䁢 C炻⎗ẍ堐䣢⤪ᶳ↿. Ʉ9Ʉ.

(10) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ℔⺷烉 ‫ ܥ‬ൌ ൣ‫ܥ‬௜௝ ൧. ௡ൈ௡. ⛐ᶲ↿℔⺷ᷕ炻n 䫱㕤䨢攻╖⃫䘬㔠慷炻i 冯 j 䘮䫱㕤 1, 2, 3, …, nˤ䔞‫ܥ‬௜௝ 烍Ͳ䘬㗪῁炻堐䣢䨢攻╖⃫ j 㗗䨢攻╖⃫ i 䘬惘役⋨➇ˤ侴䔞‫ܥ‬௜௝ 烌Ͳ㗪῁炻堐䣢䨢攻╖⃫ j ᶵⰔ㕤䨢攻╖⃫ i 䘬惘役⋨➇ˤ㬌⢾炻⮵奺䶂䘬㔠ῤ䘮姕⭂䁢 0炻⚈䁢ảỽᶨᾳ䨢攻╖⃫炻℞冒幓᷎ᶵ傥姕⭂䁢冒幓䘬惘役⋨➇ˤ㬌⢾炻䁢Ḯ⮯⎬䨢攻╖⃫惘役㓰ㅱ 䘬⼙枧⚢⭂⊾炻ἧ⼿↿ᷕ炷row炸䘬㔠ῤ䷥␴䁢 1炻忂ⷠ㚫憅⮵↿ᷕ䘬㔠ῤ忚埴㧁㸾⊾炷row standardization炸炻㧁㸾⊾䘬忳䬿⤪ᶳ炷Anselin, 1988炸烉 ܹ ൌ ൣܹ௜௝ ൧. ௡ൈ௡. ܹ௜௝ ൌ. ‫ܥ‬௜௝ σ௡௝ୀଵ ‫ܥ‬௜௝. 㧁㸾⊾忶䦳ᷕ䘬 i 冯 j 䘮䫱㕤 1, 2, 3, …, nˤܹ௜௝ 䘬㔠ῤ崲⣏炻ẋ堐䨢攻╖⃫ j ⮵ 䨢攻╖⃫ i 䘬惘役䦳⹎崲⻟ˤ⍵ᷳ炻ܹ௜௝ 䘬㔠ῤ崲⮷炻⇯ẋ堐䨢攻╖⃫ j ⮵䨢攻╖⃫ i 䘬惘役䦳⹎崲⻙ˤ军㕤ܹ௜௝ 烌Ͳ㗪炻⇯堐䣢䨢攻╖⃫ j ᶵ㗗䨢攻╖⃫ i 䘬惘役⋨ ➇ˤ㛔䞼䨞㇨䓴⭂䘬惘役斄Ὢ炻ᷣ天㗗⍫侫 Becker 䫱⬠侭炷2009炸䘬䞼䨞炻`⭂ 㝸⚳屒僸䦳⹎⎒⮵怲䓴㚱㍍⢌䘬⚳⭞䓊䓇⼙枧ˤ⚈㬌炻㛔䞼䨞ἧ䓐䁢怲䓴惘㍍⺷䘬䞑昋炻ḇ⯙㗗䔞㝸䨢攻╖⃫冯䚖㧁䨢攻╖⃫怲䓴䚠惘㍍㗪炻⇯娚䨢攻╖⃫䁢䚖㧁䨢攻╖⃫䘬惘役⋨➇ˤ ⛐ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄㚨ⷠἧ䓐䘬㩊㷔㊯㧁䁢 Global Moran’s I炷Cliff & Ord, 1981炸ˤ℟橼侴妨炻娚㊯㧁Ὢ➢㕤䴙妰⬠䘬ℙ嬲㔠㤪⾝侴Ἦ炻德忶ᶲ徘䘬䨢攻≈㪲䞑昋炷ܹ௜௝ 炸Ἦ妰䬿炻℞⭂佑⤪ᶳ烉 ‫ܫ‬ൌ. σ୬௜ୀଵ σ୬௝ୀଵ ୧୨ 炻݅ ് ݆ σ୬௜ୀଵ σ୬௝ୀଵ ௜௝ σ୬ ሺ௜ି ‫ݔ‬ҧ ሻଶ ௜ୀଵ. 䔞奨⮇ῤ䁢⚳⭞屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠㗪炻n 䁢奨⮇㧋㛔㔠烊‫ݔ‬௜ 䁢䨢攻╖⃫ ݅ 䘬屒僸㍏ ⇞㊯㔠烊‫ݔ‬௝ ⇯䁢݆䘬㊯㔠ˤὅ䄏ᶲ徘℔⺷㇨妰䬿↢䘬 Moran’s I ῤ㚫ṳ㕤 -1 ⇘ 1 ᷳ 攻炻㔠ῤ⣏㕤 0 堐䣢惘役⋨➇䘬㬋䚠斄⿏崲⻟炻侴㔠ῤ⮷㕤 0 ⇯堐䣢惘役⋨➇䘬屈䚠斄⿏崲⣏ˤ侴䔞㔠ῤ崲嵐役㕤 0 㗪炻堐䣢屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠⛐䨢攻ᶲ䘬↮ⶫ⏰䎦晐㨇. Ʉ10Ʉ.

(11) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. 䘬䉨ンˤ军㕤 Global Moran’s I 䘬栗叿⿏㩊⭂炻ᷣ天㗗德忶呁⛘⌉伭栗叿⿏㩊⭂ 炷Monte Carlo significance test炸炻⮯ Moran’s I ῤ廱㎃䁢 Z-scoreˤ䔞 Z(I)ʁ1.96 㗪炻堐䣢ℐ䎫⎬⚳攻屒僸䎦尉䘬↮Ự⼤㬌⬀⛐栗叿䘬䨢攻㬋䚠斄ˤ劍 Z(I)ṳ㕤 1.96 冯 -1.96 ᷳ攻炻堐䣢ℐ䎫⎬⚳屒僸䎦尉䘬↮Ự䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄ᶵ栗叿ˤ㬌⢾炻劍 Z(I) ʀ-1.96 㗪炻⇯堐䣢ℐ䎫屒僸䎦尉䘬↮Ự⏰䎦栗叿䘬䨢攻屈䚠斄ˤ2 ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸䚖⇵⛐Ṣ⎋⬠ˣ㳩埴䕭⬠ˣ䓇ン⬠冯䉗伒⬠䫱炻ⷠ䓐Ἦ㍊妶䎦尉䘬䨢攻↮Ự㗗⏎℟㚱䚠⎴⿏岒倂普䘬䈡⿏ˤ晾䃞ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸⎗ẍ䯉㻼䘬㩊夾㔜ᾳ⋨➇ℏ䨢攻↮Ự䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄䦳⹎炻Ữ㗗⌣䃉㱽䝕妋⛐娚⋨➇ℏ䎦尉佌倂䘬䳘悐↮ⶫ⤪ỽˤ⋨➇䨢攻冒䚠斄炻埵䓇冒ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸炻℞ㅱ䓐ὧ㗗䁢Ḯ䝕妋䎦尉⛐䨢攻⎬䳘悐⋨➇䘬↮ⶫ䉨ンˤ㔯䌣ᷕⷠ䓐䘬↮㜸㕡㱽⊭㊔烉 Anselin’s LISA炷Anselin, 1995炸⍲ Getis-Ord’s local Gi*炷Getis & Ord, 1992炸䫱ˤ 忶⍣䘬䞼䨞䘤䎦 Getis-Ord’s local Gi*䚠庫㕤℞Ṿ栆Ụ䘬↮㜸㕡㱽炻㚜⎗ẍ㚱㓰⛘⇌ 㕟屯㕁Ⱄ⿏ⶖ嶅庫⮷䘬䨢攻↮ⶫ炷㜿⽿所ˣ㜿㔯剹炻2012炸ˤ㬌⢾ Getis-Ord’s local Gi*⛐忳䬿℔⺷ᶲ炻德忶妰䬿冯䚠惘⛘⋨Ⱄ⿏䘬≈䷥堐䣢℞佌倂䘬⻟⹎炻傥⣈ 㚱㓰姽Ộ⛘䎮䨢攻ᷕ屒僸佌倂䘬⻟⹎烊德忶嶐㗪攻朊⎹䘬㭼庫炻⎗ẍ⼿ᷳ屒僸⻟⹎ 䘬嬲⊾⤪ỽˤ⚈㬌炻㛔䞼䨞ἧ䓐 local Gi*䁢↮㜸䘬㕡㱽ˤ Getis-Ord’s local Gi*ᷣ天㗗慷㷔㭷ᶨᾳ‫ݔ‬௜ 冯㭷ᾳ‫ݔ‬௝ 䘬䚠斄䦳⹎炷Getis & Ord, 1992炸炻℞妰䬿℔⺷⤪ᶳ烉. ௜ 炷݀炸 ൌ. σ୬୨ୀଵ ௜௝ ሺ݀ሻ௝ σ୬௝ୀଵ ௝. 炻݆ ് ݅. ℞ᷕ௜௝ ሺ݀ሻ䁢嶅瀸 d ℏ炻劍 i 冯 j 䚠惘⇯䁢 1炻⍵ᷳ䁢 0炻㬌嗽䘬‫ݔ‬௜ 冯‫ݔ‬௝ ⇯ẋ堐 ᶵ⎴⛘⋨䘬奨⮇㔠ῤˤ㛔䞼䨞䓐ẍ⇌⭂䨢攻惘役⿏䘬௜௝ ሺ݀ሻᷳ⭂佑冯㑵ἄ⊾冯⇵徘 Moran’s I ῤ䘬忳䬿ᶨ农ˤ⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙㇨妰䬿䘬 ௜ ሺ݀ሻ㷔慷ῤ炻䁢ⷠン㧁㸾⊾⼴䘬. ௜ ሺ݀ሻ(Zi)ῤˤ⚈㬌炻⎗ẍ⛐㊯⭂䘬栗叿㯜㸾ᷳᶳ炻⏰䎦栗叿䘬䨢攻佌倂⿏`姕㩊 ⭂ˤ⛐㛔䞼䨞ᷕ炻劍 Zi 䘬ῤ䁢㬋㔠ᶼ⏰䎦栗叿䘬⋨➇炷Zi烍1.96炸炻堐䣢⛐忁ṃ⋨ ➇䁢屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫檀䘬佌倂⋨➇炻㗗䁢⹱㻼䘬佌倂⚳⭞ˤ⍵ᷳ炻劍 Zi 䘬ῤ䁢屈㔠ᶼ⏰䎦栗叿㗪炷Zi烋-1.96炸炻⇯ẋ堐⛐忁ṃ⋨➇䁢屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫Ỷ䘬佌倂⋨ ➇炻㗗䁢屒僸䘬佌倂⚳⭞ˤ㬌⢾炻䔞 Zi ῤ崲檀ㆾ崲Ỷ䘬㗪῁炻⇯堐䣢℞佌倂䘬⻟ 2. ℐ➇冒䚠斄ᷕ Moran’s I 䘬忳䬿炻⎗⇑䓐 ArcView 10.0 䘬 ArcToolbox 墉朊䘬 Spatial Statistics Tools炻怠㑯 Analyzing Patterns ὧ傥妰䬿 Spatial Autocorrelation ᷕ䘬 Moran’s Iˤ Ʉ11Ʉ.

(12) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ⹎Ἦ⼿庫⻟ˤ 䓙ᶲ徘䨢攻冒䚠斄䞼䨞㕡㱽䘬婒㖶⎗䞍炻ㅱ䓐䨢攻冒䚠斄㕤ℐ䎫屒僸䎦尉䨢攻↮ⶫ嬲怟䘬䞼䨞ᷕ炻ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄㇨妰䬿↢Ἦ䘬 Moran’s I ῤ炻⎗㯪⼿ℐ䎫㗗⏎⏰䎦倂普䘬䉨ン炻ㆾ㗗䚠斄㔯䌣ᷕ㇨㍸⍲ᷳ屒僸䘬⁛㝻䎦尉ˤ劍ℐ䎫⎬⚳屒僸䦳⹎⏰䎦䨢攻倂普✳ン炻 ⮯⋨➇䨢攻冒䚠斄㇨⼿䘬䳸㝄 Getis-Ord’s local Gi*炷Zi炸庼ẍ⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙⚾⁷⯽䣢䘬 ≇傥炻⌛⎗妋嬨ℐ䎫屒僸䎦尉䨢攻↮Ự䘬䈡⽝ˤ䯉妨ᷳ炻⇑䓐䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸Ἦ㍊䳊ℐ䎫屒僸䦳⹎䨢攻↮ⶫ䘬嬲怟炻㚱≑㕤䞼䨞侭㚜㶙ℍ⛘㍊妶ℐ䎫屒僸䎦尉䨢攻↮ⶫ䘬䈡⿏烊ẍ ⍲⛐㗪攻⸷↿ᷕ炻↮㜸屒僸䎦尉⛐䨢攻嬲怟䘬嵐⊊炻䈡⇍㗗䨢攻䭬⚵冯佌倂⻟⹎䘬嬲⊾ˤ. ဓȃϷ‫ݙ‬๖‫ݎ‬ 㛔䞼䨞㟡㒂⚃ᾳ㗪㛇炷1996-2000烊2001-2004烊2005-2008烊2009-2011炸炻妰䬿 1996 军 2011 ⸜攻ᶾ䓴戨埴℔ⶫᷳℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠䘬⸛⛯㔠炻忚侴⮯䳸㝄墥ㆸ Ḽ↮ỵ⚾ˤ柷刚庫㶙䘬⋨➇䁢屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫Ỷ䘬⚳⭞ㆾ䴻㾇橼炻侴柷刚庫㶢䘬⋨ ➇⇯㗗屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫檀䘬⋨➇ˤ⚾ᶨ栗䣢冒 1996 军 2011 ⸜炻ℐ䎫屒僸♜慵䘬⋨ ➇ᷣ天↮Ự㕤㜙㫸ˣṆ㳚ˣ朆㳚冯ᷕ⋿伶㳚ˤ℞ᷕ庫䁢♜慵䘬⋨➇炻ᷣ天普ᷕ⛐㜙㫸ˣᷕṆ冯朆㳚ᷕ悐ˤ⍵ᷳ炻㶭⹱炷屒僸㍏⇞炸䦳⹎庫檀䘬⚳⭞⇯ᷣ天↮Ự⛐大㫸ˣ⊿㫸ˣ㜙Ṇ怲昚ˣ⊿伶㳚ˣ㽛㳚冯䲸大嗕䫱⋨➇ˤ⽆㗪攻䘬嬲⊾Ἦ䚳炻⎬⋨➇ 䘬堐䎦⣏悐↮⏰䎦⇵⼴ᶨ农䘬䉨ン炻⁭⋿伶㳚㚱㻠㻠忚㬍䘬嵐⊊ˤ ℞㫉炻德忶堐ᶨ㇨栗䣢䘬㔀徘䴙妰Ἦ䚳炻ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠䘬⸛⛯ῤ㚱徸⸜ᶲ ⋯䘬嵐⊊炻⽆ 1996 军 2000 ⸜䘬 -0.003853 忚㬍军 2009 军 2011 ⸜䘬 0.015938ˤ⎗ 夳ℐ䎫㔜橼⛐屒僸㍏⇞䦳⹎ᶲ䡢⮎㚱㇨㍸⋯ˤ忚侴㛔䞼䨞憅⮵屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠屯㕁炻妰䬿℞䨢攻冒䚠斄㊯㧁 Global Moran’s I炻姽Ộ℞㔜橼䘬ℐ➇䨢攻佌倂嵐⊊ˤ䞼䨞䳸㝄栗䣢炷⍫夳堐ᶨ炸炻⛐ 0.01 䘬䴙妰栗叿㯜㸾ᶳ炻1996 军 2011 ⸜攻ℐ䎫屒僸㍏ ⇞㊯㔠⛯⏰䎦栗叿䘬䨢攻佌倂嵐⊊ˤ℞㫉炻⽆㭷⸜䘬 Global Moran’s I 䨢攻冒䚠斄 Ὢ㔠Ἦ䚳炻℞㔠㒂⏰䎦ᶨ农䘬嵐⊊ˤ1996 军 2011 ⸜䘬ℐ➇䨢攻佌倂㊯㧁䁢㬋ῤ炻シ㊯奨⮇⋨➇䘬屒僸㍏⇞䦳⹎冯惘役⋨➇䘬ῤ⏰䎦㬋⎹䘬斄Ὢˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻⎗傥↢䎦䘬䎦尉䁢奨⮇⋨➇䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫檀炻⇯惘役䘬⋨➇䘬㊯㔠Ṏ庫檀烊㈹ㆾ㗗奨⮇ ⋨➇䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠庫Ỷ炻侴惘役䘬⋨➇䘬㊯㔠ḇ庫Ỷˤ㔜橼侴妨炻ℐ䎫䘬屒僸㍏ ⇞䎦尉炻⏰䎦↢䘬栗叿䘬㬋⎹䨢攻佌倂✳ンˤ㬌⢾炻1996 军 2011 ⸜䘬 Moran’s I ῤ䘬嬲⊾ᶵ⣏炻⣏农⛐ 0.61 䘬ᶲᶳˤ娚䳸㝄栗䣢炻ℐ䎫㔜橼䘬䨢攻㬋䚠斄䘬佌倂. Ʉ12Ʉ.

(13) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. 䦳⹎᷎㛒䓊䓇栗叿⡆≈炻侴㗗䵕㊩ᶨ农ᶼṃ⽖ᶳ㹹䘬嵐⊊ˤ 堐ᶨ ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸䳸㝄 ⸜ấ. 㧋㛔. 㚨⣏ῤ. 㚨⮷ῤ. ⸛⛯ῤ. Moran’s I. Zῤ. 1996-2000. 196. 2.440519. -1.865625. -0.003853. 0.625834. 11.251514 **. 2001-2004. 207. 2.488782. -1.71042. -0.00689. 0.621043. 11.243425 **. 2005-2008. 209. 2.460853. -1.835053. 0.013218. 0.604033. 10.928606 **. 2009-2011. 212. 2.428012. -1.730349. 0.015938. 0.614982. 11.119341 **. 旬姣烉1. 屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠崲⣏炻堐䣢屒僸䦳⹎崲Ỷ 2. **堐䣢 pʀ0.01 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒埴㔜䎮ˤ. ⎴㗪炻㛔䞼䨞德忶ẍ⚳⭞炷䴻㾇橼炸䁢╖ỵ䘬ˬ朊屯㕁˭炻↮㜸ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞ 䎦尉⛐䨢攻ᷕ佌倂䘬嵐⊊ˤ⤪⇵㇨徘炻ˬ朊屯㕁˭ⷠ䓐⋨➇攻⼤㬌䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬䦳 ⹎ἄ䁢䨢攻佌倂↮㜸䘬㕡㱽炻侴㛔䞼䨞ἧ䓐 local Getis-Ord’s Gi*忚埴↮㜸ˤ䷥橼侴妨炻㛔䞼䨞䘤䎦 1996 军 2011 ⸜攻屒僸䘬䅙溆炷屒僸㍏⇞庫ⶖ䘬佌倂⋨➇炻GiZ Scoreʀ-1.96炻䁢⚾Ḵᷕᷳ湹刚冯㶙䀘刚⋨⟲ᶼ柷刚崲㶙⻟⹎崲檀炸ᷣ天佌倂㕤朆㳚冯Ṇ㳚ˤ忚侴㛔䞼䨞⮯忁ṃ佌倂⋨➇炻德忶㓦⣏䘬㕡⺷Ἦ栗䣢炷⍫夳⚾ᶱ冯⚾ ⚃炸ˤ⛐朆㳚䘬悐↮炻1996 军 2000 ⸜攻屒僸㍏⇞堐䎦庫ⶖ䘬佌倂⋨➇⊭㊔烉㜙朆䘬呚昮 ⛘ 炷 Burundi 炸 ˣ 偗 Ṇ 炷 Kenya 炸 ˣ 䚏 ⬱ 忼炷 Rwanda 炸 ˣ 䳊楔 ⇑ Ṇ 炷Somalia炸ˣ䁷⸚忼炷Uganda炸ˣ✎⯂⯤Ṇ炷Tanzania炸ˣ⯂㭼Ṇ炷Zambia炸烊 ᷕ朆䘬⬱⒍㉱炷Angola炸ˣ┨湍昮炷Cameroon炸ˣ㞍⽟炷Chad炸ˣᷕ朆ℙ␴⚳ 炷Central African Republic炸ˣ∃㝄炷Congo炸ˣ啑Ẳ炷Zaire炸ˣ≈⼕炷Gabon炸烊 ⊿朆䘬喯ᷡ炷Sudan炸烊ẍ⍲大朆䘬⸦ℏṆ炷Guinea炸ˣ⯤㖍炷Niger炸ˣ⣰⍲⇑Ṇ 炷Nigeria炸䫱⚳⭞炷⍫夳⚾ᶱ炸ˤ侴⼴朆㳚屒僸佌倂䘬䅙溆炻⤪⚾ᶱᶳ㕡⛘⚾㇨栗䣢炻⇯㗗⛐ 2001 军 2004 ⸜㒜㔋军㜙朆䘬堋䳊⋡Ṇ炷Ethiopia炸冯⊿朆䘬⇑㭼Ṇ 炷Libya炸ˤ⚾⚃⇯⏰䎦炻⛐ 2005 军 2008 ⸜攻炻朆㳚屒僸䘬佌倂⋨➇㒜㔋军ᷕ朆䘬崌忻⸦ℏṆ炷Equatorial Guinea炸烊侴 2009 军 2011 ⸜ᷳ攻炻㚜㒜㔋军大朆䘬楔 ⇑炷Mali炸冯⠆ℏ≈䇦炷Senegal炸ˤ军㕤⛐屒僸佌倂⻟⹎嬲⊾䘬悐↮炻㛔䞼䨞⇯䘤䎦㜙朆䘬屒僸佌倂⻟⹎⏰䎦㻠⻙䘬䎦尉炻侴⊿朆冯大朆⇯㚱㖍㻠⡆⻟䘬嵐⊊ˤ 军㕤⛐Ṇ㳚䘬悐↮炻1996 军 2000 ⸜攻屒僸䘬佌倂䅙溆⋨➇⊭㊔炷⍫夳⚾ ᶱ 炸烉㜙 Ṇ 䘬 ᷕ ⚳ ⣏ 映炷 China 炸烊大 Ṇ 䘬旧 ⭴ 㯿炷 Afghanistan 炸 ˣ Ṇ ⠆ ㊄䃞 Ʉ13Ʉ.

(14) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. 炷 Azerbaijan 炸 ˣ Ẳ 㚿炷 Iran 炸 ˣ ⛇ 俛 ℞ 炷 Turkey 炸烊 ẍ ⍲ ᷕ Ṇ 䘬 ⟼ ⎱ ⃳ 炷Tajikistan炸ˣ⛇⹓㚤炷Turkmenistan炸ˣ䁷勚⇍⃳炷Uzbekistan炸ˤ⚾ᶱᶳ㕡䘬⛘ ⚾⇯栗䣢炻⛐ 2001 军 2004 ⸜攻炻Ṇ㳚屒僸佌倂䘬⋨➇⎹㜙冯⋿㒜㔋炻⊭㊔烉ᷕṆ 䘬⑰啑⃳炷Kazakhstan炸ˣ⎱䇦⎱㕗炷Kyrgyzstan炸炻ẍ⍲㜙⋿Ṇ䘬⮖⚳炷Laos炸冯䶔䓠炷Burma炸ˤ⚾⚃⇯栗䣢炻⇘Ḯ 2005 军 2008 ⸜攻炻㜙⋿Ṇ䘬屒僸䅙溆⋨➇ 㚜⊭㊔Ḯỵ㕤⋿Ṇ䘬㲘⚳炷Thailand炸烊侴ᶼ⛐ 2009 军 2011 ⸜攻炻㚜咻⺞军⋿Ṇ 䘬⶜➢㕗✎炷Pakistan炸ˤ⎴㗪炻㛔䞼䨞䘤䎦役⋩⸦⸜Ἦ炻Ṇ㳚⎬⚳屒僸佌倂⛐⻟ ⹎ᶲ䘬嬲⊾炻㚱栗叿⻟⹎⡆⻟䘬嵐⊊炷⍫夳⚾ᶱˣ⚾⚃ᷕ湹刚⋨⟲䘬嬲⊾炸ˤ ℞㫉炻⛐⹱㻼䘬佌倂䅙溆⋨➇炷屒僸㍏⇞庫Ἓ䘬佌倂炸㕡朊炻1996 军 2000 ⸜ 䘬↮㜸䳸㝄栗䣢炷⍫夳⚾Ḽ炸炻ℐ䎫⹱㻼䅙溆炷屒僸㍏⇞庫Ἓ䘬佌倂⋨➇炻GiZ scoreʁ1.96炻䁢⚾Ḵˣ⚾Ḽ冯⚾ℕᷕᷳ䀘刚冯㶢䀘刚⋨⟲炸ᷣ天普ᷕ⛐大㫸ˣ⊿ 㫸ˣ⋿㫸ˤ⛐㫸㳚䘬悐↮炻屒僸㍏⇞庫Ἓ䘬佌倂⋨➇⊭㊔大㫸䘬⤏⛘⇑ 炷Austria炸ˣ㭼⇑㗪炷Belgium炸ˣ㱽⚳炷French炸ˣ⽟⚳炷Germany炸ˣ䚏㢖⟉ 炷 Luxemburg 炸 ˣ 匟嗕炷 Netherlands 炸烊 ⋿ 㫸䘬 ⬱ 忻䇦炷 Andorra 炸 ˣ 佑 ⣏ ⇑ 炷Italy炸ˣ大䎕䈁炷Spain炸烊⊿㫸䘬ᷡ湍炷Demark炸ˣ剔嗕炷Finland炸ˣ⅘Ⲟ 炷 Iceland 炸 ˣ ッ䇦嗕炷 Ireland 炸 ˣ ㋒ ⦩ 炷 Norway 炸 ˣ 䐆 ℠ 炷 Sweden 炸 ˣ 劙 ⚳ 炷United Kingdom炸烊ẍ⍲ⓗᶨ䘬ᷕ㫸⚳⭞炼㌟⃳炷Czech Republic炸ˤ侴ᶼ⛐⮵ 䄏⚾Ḽ炷1996 军 2000 ⸜ˣ2001 军 2004 ⸜炸冯⚾ℕ炷2005 军 2008 ⸜ˣ2009 军 2011 ⸜炸䘬嬲⊾⼴炻⛐忁ṃ庫䁢⹱㻼䘬佌倂⋨➇ᷕ炻℞䭬⚵役⋩⣂⸜䘬嬲⊾ᶵ ⣏炻⁭ᷕ㫸䘬㌟⃳⛐ 2009 ⸜ᷳ⼴炻䓙栗叿䘬佌倂䎦尉廱䁢ᶵ栗叿ˤ军㕤佌倂䘬⻟ ⹎嬲⊾㕡朊炻昌Ḯᷕ㫸䘬㌟⃳㷃⻙⢾炻℞检⋨➇⸦᷶㰺㚱⣒⣏嬲⊾ˤ ⎴㗪炻⛐ 1996 军 2000 ⸜䘬㶭⹱佌倂⋨➇ᷕ炻Ṏ⊭㊔Ḯ⊿伶㳚䘬≈㊧⣏ 炷Canada炸冯伶⚳炷United States炸炻ẍ⍲⣏㲳㳚䘬䲸大嗕炷New Zealand炸ˤ䃞侴 ⛐㒜㔋䘬䎦尉ᶲ炻⇯䘤䎦㽛㳚炷Australia炸⛐ 2001 ⸜⼴炻㕤㶭⹱佌倂ᶲ⏰䎦栗叿䘬䉨ン烊侴伶⚳⇯㗗⛐ 2005 ⸜ᷳ⼴炻廱嬲ㆸ䁢ᶵ栗叿䘬⋨➇ˤ ䷥橼侴妨炻㟡㒂㛔䞼䨞㔀徘䴙妰冯䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬↮㜸䳸㝄Ἦ䚳炻ℙ㚱ẍᶳ⸦ᾳ 䘤䎦ˤ椾⃰炻⛐㔀徘䴙妰㕡朊炻䓙㕤ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠䘬⸛⛯ῤ㚱徸⸜ᶲ⋯䘬嵐 ⊊炻⎗夳ℐ䎫㔜橼䣦㚫冒 1996 ⸜ᷳ⼴炻⛐㓧⹄⹱㻼䘬堐䎦ᶲ䡢⮎㚱ᶨ⭂䘬忚㬍ˤ ῤ⼿奨⮇䘬㗗炻⛐㛔䞼䨞ᷕ䘬 Moran’s I ῤˤ娚ῤ䘬⣏⮷堐䣢䨢攻佌倂䚠斄䦳⹎䘬 ⣏⮷炻侴㛔䞼䨞䘤䎦℞嬲⊾ᶵ⣏炻䓂军⮷ⷭ⹎䘬ᶳỶˤ䵄⎰忁ℑᾳ䎦尉Ἦ䚳炻屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠䘬⸛⛯ῤ徸⸜⡆≈炻Ữ Moran’s I ῤ᷎䁢䓊䓇⣒⣏䘬嬲⊾炻⁭䓊䓇⮷ⷭ⹎. Ʉ14Ʉ.

(15) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. 䘬旵Ỷ烊忁ᾳ䎦尉堐䣢ℐ䎫⎬⚳⹱㻼䘬䦳⹎⛐徸㻠㍸⋯䘬⎴㗪炻Ữ㔜橼䘬䨢攻佌倂䚠斄䦳⹎嬲⊾ᶵ⣏ˤ ℞㫉炻㛔䞼䨞䘤䎦屒僸㍏⇞庫ⶖ䘬佌倂⋨➇ᷣ天普ᷕ⛐Ṇ㳚冯朆㳚炻侴ᶼ䡢⮎ 䓊䓇䭬⚵㒜⣏䘬⁛㝻䎦尉ˤ⛐Ṇ㳚炻屒僸⁛㝻㒜㔋䘬䭬⚵⛐役⋩⸦⸜Ἦ㚱⮷ⷭ⹎䘬㒜⻝炻䈡⇍㗗⛐ᷕṆ冯㜙⋿Ṇ悥㚱咻⺞㒜⻝䘬䎦尉䘤䓇炻侴朆㳚⇯ᷣ天㗗䓙ᷕ朆冯㜙朆咻⺞⇘⊿朆冯大朆⎬⚳ˤ军㕤⻟⹎㕡朊炻Ṇ㳚㚱屒僸佌倂⻟⹎⡆⻟䘬䷥橼嵐 ⊊烊侴朆㳚䘬佌倂⻟⹎嬲⊾⇯庫⋨➇⿏炻⁷㜙朆䘬佌倂⻟⹎廱⻙炻⊿朆冯大朆⇯㚱㖍㻠⡆⻟䘬嵐⊊ˤ 㚨⼴炻⛐屒僸㍏⇞庫Ἓ䘬佌倂⋨➇↮㜸悐↮⇯䘤䎦炻㶭⹱䎦尉䘬㒜㔋咻⺞⛐㫸㳚冯⊿伶㳚᷎ᶵ栗叿炻䓂军㚱佌倂䭬⚵䷖⮷䘬嵐⊊ˤỮ㗗炻⣏㲳㳚䘬㽛㳚冯䲸大嗕 ⇯㗗⼊ㆸ⎎ᶨᾳ栗叿䘬佌倂ˤ佌倂⻟⹎㕡朊䘬嬲⊾庫⮷炻Ữ㗗㫸㳚䘬㌟⃳冯⊿伶㳚䘬≈㊧⣏ˣ伶⚳悥㚱廱⻙䘬䎦尉ˤ⍵奨⣏㲳㳚䘬㽛㳚冯䲸大嗕炻℞佌倂⻟⹎⇯㗗⡆ ⻟ˤ. ӂȃ๖፣ 㛔䞼䨞ἧ䓐 1996 军 2011 ⸜ᶾ䓴戨埴䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠炻忳䓐ℐ➇䨢攻冒䚠斄↮ 㜸䘬㕡㱽炻忚埴ℐ䎫屒僸⁛㝻䎦尉䘬↮㜸ˤ䞼䨞䳸㝄栗䣢炻役⋩⸦⸜Ἦℐ䎫屒僸䎦尉㔜橼侴妨炻䡢⮎⬀⛐栗叿䘬㬋⎹䨢攻佌倂䉨ンˤ㎃妨ᷳ炻⯙ℐ䎫䷥橼侴妨炻⎬⚳ 䘬屒僸䦳⹎㚫冯惘⚳䘬屒僸䦳⹎䚠Ụˤ忁㧋䘬䘤䎦冯忶⍣⮹㔠䚠斄䞼䨞䳸㝄㗗ᶨ农䘬炷Becker et al., 2009; Das & DiRienzo, 2012; Miguel et al., 2011炸炻Ṏ⌛屒僸䎦尉 ⛐䨢攻ᷕ⁛㝻䘬⎗傥⿏䡢⮎⬀⛐ˤ 忶⍣炻⣏悐↮䘬䞼䨞娵䁢屒僸♜慵䘬䎦尉⬀⛐㕤朆㳚ㆾ℞Ṿ⛘⋨ᷕỶ㓞ℍ䘬⚳ ⭞炷Abed & Gupta, 2002; Easterly, 2001; Hillman, 2002, 2004炸ˤ䓂军炻Rowley 炷2000炸㇨㍸⇘䘬朆㳚㐺⑰㉱ẍ⋿⛘⋨炻ẍ⍲ Das & DiRienzo炷2012炸㍸⇘䘬ᷕ㜙 ⛘⋨炻ᶨ凔侴妨⬀⛐叿庫♜慵䘬屒僸䎦尉ˤ㛔䞼䨞忳䓐忶⍣⽆㛒⛐㬌栆䞼䨞ᷕ㇨㍉䓐䘬㕡㱽炻Ṏ⌛⋨➇䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬↮㜸㕡㱽—Getis-Ord’s local Gi*炻憅⮵⣂⸜⿏嶐 ⚳䘬屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠忚埴䅙溆↮㜸䘬䞼䨞ˤ䞼䨞䳸㝄栗䣢炻ᷕṆˣ㜙Ṇˣ㜙⋿Ṇˣᷕ 朆ˣ㜙朆ˣ大朆冯⊿朆㚱屒僸佌倂䎦尉↢䎦炻侴ᶼ䭬⚵冯⻟⹎悥㚱䔍䁢㒜⣏冯⡆⻟䘬嵐⊊ˤᶨ㕡朊德忶䴻槿⿏䘬嫱㒂嫱㖶忁ṃ⋨➇䡢⮎⬀⛐庫♜慵䘬屒僸䎦尉炻⎎ᶨ 㕡朊㚜啱䓙䨢攻佌倂↮㜸䘤奢⎗傥⬀⛐䘬屒僸⁛㝻䎦尉ˤ⮵㕤忶⍣䚠斄䞼䨞ᶵ嵛䘬 Ʉ15Ʉ.

(16) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. 悐↮㚱忚埴Ḯ䚠斄䘬墄⃭炻䈡⇍㗗憅⮵⎗傥䓊䓇屒僸⁛㝻䎦尉䘬⋨➇忚埴Ḯ㍊䳊ˤ ℞㫉炻㛔䞼䨞⛐䎮婾䘬届䌣悐↮炻ᷣ天㗗⮵㕤㛒Ἦ㚱斄屒僸䨢攻⁛㝻䞼䨞䘬ℵ 䱦忚炻䡢⮎㍸ὃᶨṃ℟┇䘤⿏⿅侫䘬㕡⎹ˤ椾⃰炻㛔䞼䨞⛐㔀徘䴙妰ᷕ䘤䎦炻ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞䘬堐䎦䡢⮎䓊䓇㍸⋯炻Ữ㗗屒僸佌倂冯屒僸⍲⹱㻼ℑ㤝⊾䘬䎦尉ṵ䃞栗叿 ᶼ嬲⊾ᶵ⣏ˤ㛔䞼䨞⣏入㍐㷔娚䎦尉⎗傥㗗䓙㕤㬟⎚㔯⊾䘬㟡㶙吪⚢⚈䳈⮶农炻⺢嬘㛒Ἦ⎗㛅⎹㬌㕡⎹䘤⯽㚜㶙ℍ䘬婧㞍䞼䨞ˤ⛐忶⍣䘬䞼䨞ᷕ炻ὧ㚱䈡⇍憅⮵㬟⎚ 㔯⊾⁛䴙冯屒僸䦳⹎忚埴䘬䚠斄↮㜸ˤ㚱䘬䞼䨞䘤䎦炻劙伶㱽䲣䘬⚳⭞㗗ẍ旸⇞⚳ 䌳⮵㕤䥩Ṣ⛇⛘屉䓊䘬嗽伖塩慷㪲↢䘤䘬炻⚈㬌庫ᾅ晄Ṣ㮹ᶵ⍿⇘忶⹎䘬㓧⹄䭉⇞ 冯Ὕ䉗炻⚈㬌屒僸ね⼊庫ᶵ♜慵炷Goel & Nelson, 2010; Goel, Nelson, & Naretta, 2012; Treisman, 2000炸ˤ㈹ㆾ忶⍣㚱䞼䨞妶婾㶭㔁⼺䘬⁛䴙冯㓧⹄屒僸䘬斄Ὢˤ⛐ 忁ṃ䞼䨞䘬奨溆ᷕ炻℞Ṿ⬿㔁炷ἳ⤪烉㜙㬋㔁ˣ⣑ᷣ㔁冯⚆㔁炸䘬㔁㚫䳬䷼㝞㥳℟ 㚱㝸䧖䦳⹎䘬Ⰼ䳂䭨⇞炻侴ᶼ䴙㱣昶Ⰼ冯⬿㔁䘬Ṍ䷼䎦尉♜慵炻⮵㕤屒僸䎦尉冯㪲 ≃㾓䓐䘬⭡⽵䦳⹎庫檀ˤ⍵ᷳ炻㶭㔁⼺⛐㬟⎚ᶲ⯙㗗怈暊䴙㱣昶Ⰼ炻᷎ᶼ㈖㺼⍵⮵ 㓧⹄㾓㪲䘬奺刚炻ḇ⚈㬌⮵㕤屒僸䎦尉䘬⭡⽵䦳⹎䚠⮵庫Ỷˤ⚈㬌炻㶭㔁⼺㭼䌯崲檀䘬䣦㚫炻℞屒僸䘬䦳⹎ḇ㚫庫Ỷ炷Becker et al., 2009; Pellegrini & Gerlagh, 2008; Treisman, 2000炸ˤ㛒Ἦ⎗憅⮵忁ṃ屒僸冯⹱㻼䘬佌倂⋨➇炻奨⮇㗗⏎䓙㕤㽫⍂䘬㬟⎚㔯⊾⁛䴙炻⮶农ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞傥≃㍸⋯䘬⎴㗪炻ṵ冲䃉㱽ㇻ䟜屒僸䎦尉佌倂䘬䦳⹎ㆾ㗗ℐ䎫ℑ㤝⊾䘬䉨ンˤ ⎎⢾炻㛔䞼䨞德忶⮎嫱䘬屯㕁↮㜸嫱㖶忁ṃ⋨➇䡢⮎㚱屒僸䎦尉䘬佌倂䓊䓇炻 ᷎ᶼ奨⮇⇘忁ṃ⋨➇㚱庫栗叿䘬⁛㝻⎗傥⿏ˤ⚈㬌炻忚ᶨ㬍㶙ℍ↮㜸䁢ỽ忁ṃ⋨➇ 䓊䓇⁛㝻䎦尉䘬⚈䳈ㆾ㨇⇞⮯ㆸ䁢㛒Ἦ䞼䨞䘬慵溆ˤ⺢嬘⎗ẍ⃰⇑䓐㛔䞼䨞䘬↮㜸䳸㝄炻䓴⭂↢䓊䓇屒僸佌倂䘬⋨➇炻⮯㧋㛔⋨↮䁢屒僸佌倂冯朆佌倂⋨➇烊忚侴㟡㒂⃰⇵㔯ᷕ㇨㍸⍲䘬屒僸⁛㝻徼⼹炻⺢䩳⎰怑䘬䚠斄嬲㔠炻忚埴䚠斄䘬徜㬠↮㜸ˤ ㆾ侭憅⮵忁ṃ⋨➇忚埴䓘慶婧㞍ㆾ㶙⹎姒婯炻慸㶭㗗⏎⁛㝻䘬䎦尉䡢⮎⎗傥⬀⛐炻 ẍ⍲㍊䨞䓊䓇䘬⍇⚈ˤ⎴㗪炻㛔䞼䨞ḇ䘤䎦ℐ䎫䣦㚫ᷕ⬀⛐屒僸䘬佌倂炷⤪Ṇ㳚ˣ 朆㳚炸冯⹱㻼䘬佌倂炷⤪㫸㳚冯䲸㽛炸ˤ㛒Ἦ⎗⮯ℑᾳ佌倂⋨➇䓴⭂↢Ἦ⼴炻⇑䓐徜㬠↮㜸㭼庫℞⎬冒䘬䚠斄⚈䳈炻ㆾ㗗德忶ῤ⊾䘬䞼䨞㕡㱽炻⮵㕤⽆䎮婾䘬奺⹎Ἦ ↮㜸忁ℑᾳᶵ⎴佌倂䘬⋨➇⮯㚜㚱届䌣ˤ ⯙㛔䞼䨞䳸㝄䘬㓧䫾シ㵝Ἦ䚳炻⮵㕤倗⎰⚳ˣᶾ䓴戨埴ˣ⚳晃德㖶䳬䷼ˣẍ⍲ ℐ䎫⎬⋨➇⎰ἄℙ⎴橼侴妨炻ᶾ䓴⎬⚳屒僸䎦尉䘬㍏⇞䦳⹎⎗傥⬀⛐⢾悐⿏ˤ䔞⚳ ⭞冒幓䘬屒僸㍏⇞䘬堐䎦庫Ἓ㗪炻℞屒僸⁛㝻䘬⢾㹊㓰㝄㚫庫⮷炻⚈侴ἧ⼿惘役⚳. Ʉ16Ʉ.

(17) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. ⭞䘬屒僸䎦尉㷃⮹ˤ⎴㗪炻䔞⚳⭞冒幓屒僸䦳⹎庫Ỷ㗪炻㚫⚈䁢℞㬋⎹䘬⁛㝻㓰㝄炻㓡┬㔜ᾳ⋨➇䘬屒僸䎦尉ˤ⚈㬌炻⚳晃ㆾ⋨➇⿏䘬䣦㚫炻⛐≒≃Έ⮶ㇻ㑲屒僸冯Έ⮶㓧⹄⹱㻼䘬⎴㗪炻⽭枰憅⮵䈡⭂䘬屒僸佌倂⋨➇炷ἳ⤪㛔䞼䨞䘤䎦䘬Ṇ㳚冯朆㳚䘬佌倂炸忚埴嶐⚳⿏䘬㔜⎰ⶍἄˤ憅⮵佌倂普ᷕ⿏庫⻟䘬⋨➇炻农≃旵Ỷ忁ṃ ⚳⭞屒僸䦳⹎䘬䚠斄ⶍἄ炻⮯㚱≑㕤㔜ᾳ⋨➇屒僸桐㯋䘬䞗㬋炻忚侴㒜㔋军惘役䘬 ⚳⭞ˤ⎴㗪炻⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙㍸ὃ⻟⣏䘬⚾⁷夾奢≇傥炻德忶⛘⚾⏰䎦䘬㕡⺷炻ℐ䎫 ⍵屒僸䘬䚠斄䳬䷼ḇ傥㚜㶭㤂㌴㎉炻㛒Ἦ⍵屒僸ⶍἄ㍐≽䘬慵溆⚳⭞ㆾ⋨➇ˤ㬌 ⢾炻⇑䓐嶐⸜⹎䘬䨢攻佌倂↮㜸炻䞼䨞侭䓂军⎗ẍ徥希㗗⏎䚠斄⍵屒僸ⶍἄ䓊䓇ㆸ 㓰烊Ṏㆾ䚠斄⍵屒忳≽⮵ℐ䎫屒僸䓇ン䓊䓇䘬堅㑲炻ẍ⍲忈ㆸ䘬㓡嬲䁢ỽˤ㚨⼴炻 ⤪⎴⃰⇵䞼䨞侭㟡㒂䘤䎦㇨䓊䓇䘬⣏入㍐婾炻㬟⎚㔯⊾⎗傥㗗䓊䓇忁ṃ佌倂⋨➇䘬 ⎗傥慵天側㘗炻⚳晃⛐㍐≽⍵屒僸忳≽䘬⎴㗪炻Ṏ⎗⇑䓐㔯⊾ㆾ₡ῤ䘬㿴廠Ἦ忼⇘ ℞⎗傥䘬䚖㧁ˤ 㛔䞼䨞ṵ㚱℞旸⇞⬀⛐ˤ椾⃰炻⛐屯㕁䘬㔜⁁䦳⹎怬㗗㚱㇨㫈仢ˤ㛔䞼䨞㇨ἧ 䓐䘬⛘⚾屯㕁ᷕ炻ℙ妰㚱 252 ᾳ⚳⭞烊Ữ㗗炻㓞普⇘䘬屒僸㍏⇞屯㕁㚨⣂⎒㵝味 212 ᾳ⚳⭞ˤ忁ṃ仢᷷屯㕁䘬⚳⭞炻⮯䳘⽖⼙枧㛔䞼䨞↮㜸䳸㝄䘬䱦䡢⿏ˤ㛒Ἦ㛇㛃ᶾ䓴戨埴ㆾ䚠斄㨇㥳⎗ẍ⮯忁ṃ仢᷷䘬屯㕁墄滲炻ẍἧ⼿䞼䨞䳸㝄㚜℟ᾉ⹎ˤ℞ 㫉炻㛔䞼䨞ᷣ天ẍ⚳⭞怲䓴惘役䁢惘役⿏䓴⭂䘬ὅ㒂炻⎗傥㚫䓊䓇ᶨṃ䈡⭂䘬旸 ⇞ˤἳ⤪ᷕ⚳䓙㕤朊䧵庫⣏炻㇨㍍妠⇘䘬⚳⭞㔠慷㚫庫⣂烊侴冢䀋⇯㗗⚃朊䑘㴟炻 ⚈㬌ᶵ㚫㚱惘役⋨➇ˤ忁㧋ᶨἮ炻⛐䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬Ộ䬿ᶲ⎗傥㚫䓊䓇旸⇞ˤ㛒Ἦ⎗ ẍ⮯嶅暊怆㷃㤪⾝䲵ℍ䨢攻佌倂↮㜸℔⺷ᷕ炻ḇ⯙㗗德忶嶅暊怈役Ἦ䓴⭂惘役⋨ ➇炻㇨⼿䘬䳸㝄⎗冯㛔䞼䨞忚埴㭼庫冯⮵䄏ˤ㚨⼴炻㛒Ἦ⮵㕤⍵屒㳣≽冯ⶍ℟㇨䓊䓇䘬㓰㝄炻ḇ⎗德忶忁䧖嶐崲㗪攻冯䨢攻䘬㕡㱽炻姽慷娚㳣≽冯ⶍ℟㇨䓊䓇䘬⼙枧炻ἳ⤪㗗⏎德忶䚠斄㳣≽䷖⮷Ḯ屒僸佌倂䎦尉ˣㆾ㗗ῇ䓙㝸ṃ⇞⹎⍲ⶍ℟䘬ṳℍ ⇲⻙Ḯ佌倂䘬⻟⹎䫱ˤ㚨⼴炻⋨➇䨢攻冒䚠斄䘬↮㜸⁭傥䓴⭂↢屒僸ㆾ㶭⹱⚳⭞䘬佌倂ỵ伖炻䃉㱽㶙ℍ䝕妋佌倂䘤䓇䘬䚠斄⚈䳈炻ḇ⚈㬌旸⇞Ḯ㛔䞼䨞䘤䎦䘬届䌣䦳 ⹎ˤデ冰嵋䘬䞼䨞侭炻㖍⼴⎗⇑䓐叿慵⋨➇䔘岒⿏䘬䴙妰↮㜸ⶍ℟炻ἳ⤪⛘䎮≈㪲徜㬠㕡㱽炷geographically weighted regression炸炻Ἦ㍊䳊冯屒僸䚠斄䘬⚈䳈炻㕤⎬ ⋨➇屒僸䘬䚠斄⿏炻忚侴Ἦ㍐婾屒僸佌倂䘤䓇䘬⍇⚈ˤ 役⸜Ἦ炻䓙㕤⛘䎮屯妲䲣䴙㈨埻䘬↢䎦冯⛘䎮屯妲⣏慷䘬䧵䳗炻ẍ⛘䎮屯妲㈨埻䁢➢䢶䘬䨢攻↮㜸冯䨢攻䴙妰㕡㱽㇨䓊↢䘬䳸㝄炻⛐姙⣂䘬䣦㚫䎦尉䘬姽Ộ冯䚠斄㓧䫾䘬⇞⭂ᶲ炻徸㻠ㆸ䁢慵天䘬↮㜸枭䚖ˤ憅⮵屒僸䎦尉䘬䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸炻⎗. Ʉ17Ʉ.

(18) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ẍ⋼≑⚳晃䣦㚫ᷕ䚠斄╖ỵ⛐↮㜸屒僸䎦尉炻ㆾ⿅侫⍵屒僸忳≽冯ⶍἄ㗪炻侫慷屒僸䎦尉⛐䨢攻ᶲ炻⮵㕤惘役⋨➇㇨䓊䓇䘬⢾悐⿏ˤ㛒Ἦ昌Ḯ⎗ㅱ䓐㛔䞼䨞ᷳ↮㜸㕡㱽㕤℞Ṿ䈡⭂䘬屒僸䎦尉炷ἳ⤪烉⚳旚ˣẩ㤕ˣ朆䆇⇑䳬䷼炸炻Ṏ⎗ㅱ䓐㕤℞Ṿ慵天䘬⚳晃㓧㱣嬘柴ㆾ䎦尉炷ἳ⤪烉Ṣ㪲ˣ㕘倆冒䓙ˣ屯㛔ᷣ佑炸炻䘮℟㚱慵天ᶼ∝ 㕘䘬シ佑ˤ. Ʉ18Ʉ.

(19) 2009-2011. 2005-2008. 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒丒ˤ. ⚾ᶨ 1996-2011 ⸜ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠䨢攻↮ⶫ⚾. 2001-2004. 1996-2000. ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫ٯ‬. ġ. Ʉ 19 Ʉ.

(20) ɄɄ20 Ʉ. 2009-2011. 2005-2008. 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒丒ˤ. ⚾Ḵ 1996-2011 ⸜ℐ䎫屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠 Local Getis-Ord’s GiZ Score ↮ⶫ⚾. 2001-2004. 1996-2000. ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д.

(21) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. ⚾ᶱ 1996-2000 冯 2001-2004 ⸜Ṇ㳚冯朆㳚ᷳ屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠 Local Getis-Ord’s Gi*↮㜸⚾ġ 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒丒ˤġ. Ʉ21Ʉ.

(22) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ⚾⚃ 2005-2008 冯 2009-2011 ⸜Ṇ㳚冯朆㳚ᷳ屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠 Local Getis-Ord’s Gi*↮㜸⚾ 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒丒ˤ. Ʉ22Ʉ.

(23) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. ⚾Ḽ 1996-2000 冯 2001-2004 ⸜㫸㳚ᷳ屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠 Local Getis-Ord’s Gi*↮㜸⚾ 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒丒ˤ. Ʉ23Ʉ.

(24) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. ⚾ℕ 2005-2008 冯 2009-2011 ⸜㫸㳚ᷳ屒僸㍏⇞㊯㔠 Local Getis-Ord’s Gi*↮㜸⚾ 屯㕁Ἦ㸸烉ἄ侭冒丒ˤ. Ʉ24Ʉ.

(25) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. ୤ՃМᝦ 㜿⽿所ˣ㜿㔯剹炷2012炸ˤ冢䀋惺䱦⿏䕦䕭㬣ṉ䌯ᷳ䨢攻倂普↮㜸ˤᇃᢊፏᇬ炻31 炷2炸炻195-204ˤ 冢䀋德㖶䳬䷼炷2013炸ˤℐ䎫屒僸⌘尉㊯澷炻2013 ⸜ 3 㚰 19 㖍炻⍾冒烉 http://www.tict.org.tw/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=100391ˤ ⹾冰ᷕˣ⏪ἑ⬱炷2013炸ˤ冢䀋䷋ⶪ㓧⹄屒僸䎦尉ᷳ䨢攻冒䚠斄↮㜸ˤᇃᢊҕк۟ ѐ炻10炷2炸炻39-72ˤ Abed, G. T., & S. Gupta (2002). Governance, corruption, and economic performance. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Aleman, E., Davila, J., Jetter, M., Montoya A., & D. Morales (2014). Corruption: Transcending Borders. Center for research in economics and finance (CIEF), Working Papers. Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics: Methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Pub. Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicators of spatial association-LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93-115. Arikan, G. G. (2004). Fiscal decentralization: A remedy for corruption? International Tax and Public Finance, 11(2), 175-195. Attila, G. (2008). Is corruption contagious? An econometric analysis. NUPI Working Paper 742, Oslo: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Becker, S. O., Egger, P. H., & T. Seidel (2009). Common political culture: Evidence on regional corruption contagion. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(3), 300-310. Cliff, A., & J. K. Ord (1981). Spatial processes: Models and applications. London: Pion. Das, J., & C. E. DiRienzo (2012). Spatial decay of corruption in Africa and the Middle East. Economic Papers, 31(4), 508-514. Easterly, W. (2001). The elusive quest for growth: Economists’ adventures and misadventures in the tropics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Fisman, R., & E. Miguel (2007). Corruption, norms, and legal enforcement: Evidence from diplomatic parking tickets. Journal of Political Economy, 115(6), 10201048. Fisman, R., & R. Gatti (2002). Decentralization and corruption: Evidence across countries. Journal of Public Economics, 83(3), 325-345. Ʉ25Ʉ.

(26) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. Getis A., & J. K. Ord (1992). The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Geographical Analysis, 24(3), 189-206. Goel, R. K., & M. A. Nelson (2007). Are corrupt acts contagious? Evidence from the United States. Journal of Policy Modeling, 29, 839-850. Goel, R. K., & M. A. Nelson (2010). Causes of corruption: History, geography, and government. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(4), 433-447. Goel, R. K., Nelson, M. A., & M. A. Naretta (2012). The internet as an indicator of corruption awareness. European Journal of Political Economy, 28, 64-75. Hillman, A. L. (2002). The World Bank and the persistence of poverty in poor countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 18, 783-795. Hillman, A. L. (2004). Corruption and public finance: An IMF perspective. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, 1067-1077. Johnston, M. (1997). What can be done about entrenched corruption? In B. Pleskovic (Ed.), Annual World Bank conference on development economics (pp. 69-90). Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & M. Mastruzzi (2010). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper No. 5430. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & R. Vishny (1999). The quality of government. Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 15(1), 222-279. Manski, C. F. (2000). Economic analysis of social interactions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 115-136. Miguel A. M., SalinasƮJiménez, J., & M. D. M. SalinasƮJiménez (2011). Exploring differences in corruption: The role of neighboring countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 14(1), 11-19. Paldam, M. (2002). The cross-country pattern of corruption: Economics, culture and the seesaw dynamics. European Journal of Political Economy, 18, 215-240. Pellegrini, L., & R. Gerlagh (2008). Causes of corruption: A survey of cross-country analyses and extended results. Economics of Governance, 9, 245-263. Quazi, R., Langley, S., & A. Till (2013). Corruption contagion in South Asia and East Asia: An econometric study. International Journal of Developing Societies, 2(3), 87-95. Rowley, C. (2000). Political culture and economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Political Economy, 16, 133-158. Treisman, D. (2000). The causes of corruption: A cross-national study. Journal of Public Economics, 76(3), 399-457.. Ʉ26Ʉ.

(27) ӄౚ೥ᆭ໺ࢉϐ‫ޜ‬໔ϩ‫݋‬ǺаШࣚሌՉ೥ᆭ௓‫ࡰڋ‬ኧࣁ‫!ٯ‬. Analysis on Global Corruption Contagion: A Case Study of the Control of Corruption Hsin-Chung Liao* Abstract A small literature confirms the contagious effect of corruption, and finds that a lower national level of corruption is associated with a lower regional measure of corruption, as measured by the average level of corruption in one country’s neighbors. This study assumes that corruption is contagious, and uses the spatial statistics to carry out an empirical analysis. Using the spatial autocorrelation methodologies, including global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord’s local Gi*, this study maps and compares spatial clusters for the control of corruption index form World Bank’s global governance indicators (World Governance Indicators, WGI) in different year. The results show that the corruption is indeed having significant contagion and strong cluster in Asia and Africa. The scope of corruption cluster in Asia only expands a little during the last decade. However, the corruption cluster is slowing beginning to spread to North and West African. In general, the strength of corruption cluster in Asian and Africa is getting higher. Secondly, corruption well-control cluster is found not obvious spreading in Europe and North America, even cluster is getting narrow. However, Australia and New Zealand form another significant integrity cluster. Although the strength of integrity cluster is changing little, the strength of integrity cluster in Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the *. Assistant Professor, Department Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University. email: lhc@cc.shu.edu.tw. Ʉ27Ʉ.

(28) ǸϦӅՉࡹᏢൔǸ ಃѤΜϤය ҇103ԃ3Д. United States is decreasing a little. On the contrary, the strength of integrity cluster in Australia and New Zealand are increasing. Keywords: corruption studies, contagion effects, geographical information system, spatial autocorrelation analysis, control of corruption. Ʉ28Ʉ.

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