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國際穀物價格波動對毛猪飼料與 毛猪產地價格傳遞效果之研究

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圖 1-3  研究流程圖  二、 研究步驟  依前節之研究動機與研究目的,本文主要研究步驟如下:      (一)  確立研究對象與研究範圍          本研究以國際穀物價格、毛猪飼料價格、毛猪產地價格為研究對象,採 用雙變量模型探討國際穀物價格與飼料價格及產地價格之間的關係。研究期 間為 2000 年 1 月至 2009 年 12 月之月資料,作為實證模型分析之用。 研究動機與目的 文獻蒐集與分析 資料蒐集與整理 單根檢定 ARCH 效果檢定 實證模型設立 實證模型估計 實證結果與分析 結論與建議
表 2-1  歷年台灣地區毛猪飼養規模結構  年  毛猪飼養數量(頭)  養猪戶數(戶)  平均每戶飼養規模(頭) 1985 6,673,983  83,709  79.73  1986 7,057,099  72,393  97.48  1987 7,129,034  63,229  112.75  1988 6,954,322  55,574  125.14  1989 7,783,276  53,022  146.79  1990 8,565,250  47,221  181.39  1991 10,
表 4-1  模型變數定義、資料來源與資料處理方式  變數名稱  變數符號  單  位  資料處理 資料來源  毛猪產地價格  PIGP  元/公斤  月價格  農委會畜產品價格查詢系統 大猪飼料價格  LPFP  元/公斤  月價格  農委會畜產品價格查詢系統 台灣黃豆粉價格  TBEAN  元/公斤  月價格  農委會畜產品價格查詢系統 台灣玉米粉價格  TCORN  元/公斤  月價格  農委會畜產品價格查詢系統 美國黃豆期貨價格  UFSB  美分/英斗 近月價格 DataStream 資料庫  美

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