• 沒有找到結果。

臺灣鄉鎮市區因子對於青少女生育率的影響

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "臺灣鄉鎮市區因子對於青少女生育率的影響"

Copied!
2
0
0

加載中.... (立即查看全文)

全文

(1)

臺灣鄉鎮市區因子對於青少女生育率的影響

The Effects of Township-level Characteristics on Teenage Birth Rates in Taiwan: A Longitudinal Study

中文摘要

本研究主要想探討的重點有三點:第一、想知道臺灣地區從 1980 年開始到 2005 年為止,359 個鄉鎮市區因子和青少女生育率的變化情形;第二、這些區域因子 是如何影響到青少女生育率;第三、各個鄉鎮市區因子與青少女生育率的五年及 十年改變率之間的關係。研究資料來源主要有三個,分別為臺閩地區人口統計、

縣市要覽以及戶口及住宅普查資料。研究樣本為臺灣地區 359 個鄉鎮市區,從 1980 年開始到 2005 年,每五年為一個單位,從縣市統計要覽等政府出版資料取 得鄉鎮市區層級因子的測量,共計 2154 個樣本。研究中會使用雙變項分析、重 複測量的多變項分析以及時間遲滯模式(Time-lagged Model)。

重要結果如下:一、在同年模式中,區域因子較差的地區,其青少女生育率越高,

分別為人口密度低、每萬人口醫師數低、高等教育人口百分比低、65 歲以上人 口百分比高、原住民人口百分比高的地區,青少女生育率是越高的。二、區域因 子影響青少女生育率有出現時間遲滯的情形,也就是說,在控制了當年青少女生 育率後,區域的人口密度、65 歲以上人口百分比、原住民人口百分比、高等教 育人口百分比這四個變項,可穩定預測五年及十年後的青少女生育率;而區域的 離婚率則是要經一段時間才能影響青少女生育率,以十年的效果最大;遷徙率只 有在五年及十年時間遲滯模式中有達到顯著;而每萬人口醫師數只有在同年度有 顯著,沒有時間遲滯效應。三、都市化程度越低,青少女生育率越高。四、都市 化程度為修飾因子,不同都市化程度地區中,影響青少女生育率的因子不同。五、

青少女生育率與 20-24 歲年齡別生育率相比,在離婚率部分有差異;在同年模式 中,當區域離婚率增加,20-24 歲生育率降低,青少女生育率則無顯著;而在五 年及十年時間遲滯模式中,區域的離婚率可預測五年及十年後的青少女生育率,

20-24 歲生育率則無顯著。六、在生育率增加地區與生育率減少地區中,影響其 改變率程度的因子是不同的。

討論及建議:從結果可以看出,影響到青少女生育率的因子,以社會結構層面的 因子較為明顯。未來政策制訂者應該要看每個影響因子背後所帶有的意義,除此 之外,城鄉差異是解釋青少女生育率差異的重要因子,所以政策制訂者應該是要 努力去達到地區發展機會的公平性,應要顧及居民的需求、偏好及負擔能力。

英文摘要

This study has two main purposes. First, this study explored the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between township-level factors and teenage birth rates from 1980 to 2005 in Taiwan. Second, the study examined the relationships between

(2)

township-level factors and the 5- and the 10-year change rates of teenage births. The data came from Taiwan Demography, the City and County Statistics, and Census. The study used a pooled ecological study design with repeated measures of township-level characteristics every 5 years from 1980 to 2005 (N=2154). This study calculated spearman correlation coefficients and used multivariate analyses with repeated measurements, and used time-lagged models to analyze the data.

The findings of this study are as follows:

1.In the cross-sectional models, the townships with lower population density, a lower percentage of physicians, a lower level of college education, a higher percentage of elderly, and a higher percentage of aborigines were associated with higher teenage birth rates.

2.In the time-lagged models, after controlling current teenage birth rates, a lower population density, a lower level of college education, a higher elderly concentration, a higher percentage of aborigines predicted 5-year teenage birth rates. The same results were also found in the 10-year time-lagged models. The rates of divorced and residential mobility were significantly associated with teen birth rates in the 5-year and 10-year time-lagged models, but not in the cross-sectional models. The

percentage of physicians was only significant in the cross-sectional models.

3.The townships with a lower level of urbanization had higher teenage birth rates than those with a higher level of urbanization. In addition, urbanization also served as a modifier in the relationships between township-level characteristics and teenage birth rates.

4.With regards to the change rates of teen births, in the townships where teenage birth rates were increasing within 5- and 10-year time spans, the predictive characteristics were different from the townships where teenage birth rates were decreasing within 5- and 10-year time spans.

These findings suggest that social structural characteristics have more significant effects on teenage birth rates than other characteristics. The policy makers should understand that socioeconomic characteristics of a place and rural-urban difference can be influential factors of teenage birth rates. The future policy should focus on improving regional equity and fulfilling regional needs.

參考文獻

相關文件

body and ramus of the mandible, displacing the tooth germs of the first and second permanent lower right molars. d, e Cone beam com- puted tomography revealed a hypodense image in

For 5 to be the precise limit of f(x) as x approaches 3, we must not only be able to bring the difference between f(x) and 5 below each of these three numbers; we must be able

[This function is named after the electrical engineer Oliver Heaviside (1850–1925) and can be used to describe an electric current that is switched on at time t = 0.] Its graph

Consistent with the negative price of systematic volatility risk found by the option pricing studies, we see lower average raw returns, CAPM alphas, and FF-3 alphas with higher

Lower bound on the cost of any algorithm in the GST model is generalized from the interleave lower bound of BST 3 to search trees on

The performance guarantees of real-time garbage collectors and the free-page replenishment mechanism are based on a constant α, i.e., a lower-bound on the number of free pages that

In the second quarter of 2003, the average number of completed units in each building was 11, which was lower than the average value for 2002 (15 units). a The index of

 develop a better understanding of the design and the features of the English Language curriculum with an emphasis on the senior secondary level;..  gain an insight into the