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資訊可能成為不動產買方的議價條件,使得位在住宅竊盜影響範圍內的不動產價 格因之減價,此結果亦驗證住宅竊盜對房價造成影響之因果關係。

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建議

綜上所述,本研究證實住宅竊盜確實對房價造成負向影響效果,也同時回應 了民眾對於政府公布犯罪地圖之行為是否衝擊房價之疑問。思考政府公布犯罪地 圖之目的在於提升人民對於特定地區的警覺心,同時提供警政單位劃設犯罪熱區 以加強犯罪熱區的戒備強度,截斷竊盜犯作案機會,長遠來看公布住宅竊盜地圖 可降低犯罪事件的發生頻率並提升鄰里環境品質,而本研究採取公布前後各 10 個月的時間,檢視公布住宅竊盜地圖對房價的影響效果,為短期時間觀察,建議 後續研究可檢驗公布住宅竊盜的長期影響效果,確認政府公開犯罪資訊是否有助 於改善鄰里環境、提升居住品質的成效。

除此之外,本研究隨著住宅竊盜資訊逐月更新,竊盜件數將逐漸累積增加,

本文未考量住宅竊盜影響房價的時間期長,而是按累積方式觀察住宅竊盜對房價 的影響效果,考量現今政府開放資料平台公布竊盜地圖的方式是一次性提供所有 已公布之竊盜點位,並不會隨著時間經過刪除更早期公布的資料,因此民眾可於 住宅交易當時搜尋到所有已公布之竊盜資訊,加上本文研究時期尚短,對於未考 量住宅竊盜影響房價期長造成的偏誤應較小,但為使研究更臻至完善,建議後續 研究此類議題時,應考量犯罪事件影響房價的時間期長,減小偏誤。

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Log likelihood 750.80 1216.44 1285.85 Log likelihood 746.76 1213.56 1286.78 Log likelihood 738.88 1210.57 1283.26

樣本數 3364 3364 3364 樣本數 3364 3364 3364 樣本數 3364 3364 3364

註:***、**、*分別代表在 t 檢定下,達到 1%、5%與 10%的顯著水準

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