世 紀最後 十 年 (1990~1999)的國際自然災害防災十年計畫(International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction)，選定全世界 16 個未來十年最有可能再噴發、具破壞性的火山為十年火山
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能符合活火山的時間經驗定義(Szakacs, 1994)。另外，綜合過去在大屯火山群的微震分佈、氦 同位素、噴氣口的火山氣體、及地下溫度的測量及遍佈高溫的溫泉，顯示其地底下應還有岩漿 庫的存在(圖 1-2)（楊燦堯，2000；楊燦堯等，2003；Yeh and Chen, 1991；Song et al., 2000b；
Lin et al., 2005a, 2005b；Lee et al., 2005；Yang et al., 1999），依據活火山的現象定義應認定其 為活火山(Szakacs, 1994)。馬國鳳等人（Ma et al., 1996）利用地震斷層掃描法（Seismic
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圖 1-3：台北盆地井下火山泥流堆積物岩性柱狀及對比圖 （Tsao et al., 2001; Song et al., 2007）。
220 ka (TL) 0.39 0.39 Ma
(Ar-Ar)
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圖 1-4：火山噴發前岩漿活動可能的前兆(Tilling, 1989)。
二、過去的研究結果
經濟部中央地質調查所於民國 93 年至民國 100 年執行「大台北地區特殊地質災害調查與 監測」兩期共 8 年之計畫。其中，在火山活動的調查監測方面，建立了溫泉水質、火山氣體以 及地下溫度等多面向之監測站，長時間蒐集火山地區之環境資料，了解長時間之地球化學及地 下熱流變化，並配合大台北計畫項下子計畫所布設的火山微震觀測站網資料，進一步評估火山 之活動性。故過去八年在大屯火山群的火山流體和地熱監測結果顯示：
1、大屯火山群的溫泉水成因，馬槽和硫磺谷的溫泉可能與岩漿源有關，地熱谷溫泉可能是 天水和地層中的滷水混合形成的，而小油坑溫泉則受到蒸發作用的影響。
2、溫泉水的變化與微震發生頻率有一定的關係，顯示水質的變化可能與地底下的流體因素 有關。
3、溫泉水水質和水化學的監測顯示過去幾年的變化相對穩定。
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源之探討。國家公園學報，13(1), 127-156 頁。
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