不動產估價成本法中重要觀念的討論與實證 - 不動產估價成本法中重要觀念的討論與實證

日期： 100 年 6 月 27 日

一、參加會議經過

本人於英國取得博士學位，多年來也持續參與歐洲不動產學會(European Real Estate Society, ERES)會議，今年也不例外。今年會議場所在荷蘭 Eindhoven。荷蘭

計畫編

號

NSC 98－2410－H－004－175－MY2

計畫名

University of Technology of Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

會議名

稱

(中文)歐洲不動產學會年會

(英文) European Real Estate Society Annual Conference

發表論文題目

(中文)大都市中建築物之經濟壽命

(英文) Economic Life of Buildings in a Large City

(中文)政策誘因可以增加衰敗地區的住宅供給嗎？

(英文)Can Policy Stimulants Increase Housing Supply in Run-down Areas?

素以土地嚴格管制聞名，個人第一次參與 ERES 會議也是在荷蘭 Maastricht，因此格外具有意義。會議地點為Eindhoven 的 Technology University，該校建築學院中設有不動產管理研究群。

由於個人研究領域為土地市場以及土地價格，因此參與之場次也多與這些議題相關，以下簡略報告其中幾場聆聽之文章。

在keynote speech 中，荷蘭 Maastricht 大學 Professor Piet Eichholtz 分析美國綠建築對於租金的影響，詳盡的資料以及嚴謹的統計顯示，縱使符合綠建築規範需

要付出較高成本，綠建築可以要求的租金明顯超過多岀的成本。昆士蘭大學 Dr.

Clive Warren 對於澳洲商用不動產的節能研究（energy efficiency），雖然不是直接

處理綠建築的成本效益問題，但是也間接支持 Professor Eichholtz 的論點，建築

物的節能效果是可能反映在租金的效益上。也就是說，綠建築是具有經濟效益的。這對於台灣目前積極推動的綠建築認證，具有正面的意義。

另外一個議題，是香港大學以及香港科技大學所提出，有關高樓樓住宅管理的問題。香港人口以及住宅密度極高，因此必須依賴類似臺灣的管委會來協調管理公共事務，這也造成典型的共有財使用問題。這兩篇文章都認為管理的好壞，

是可以透過房價或租金反映出來。另外，制度設計也可能減輕住戶參與率偏低的問題。總而言之，市場以及制度是可能解決高密度住宅的公共財提供，以及品質低劣的弊病。

另一篇很有趣的文章，則是有關荷蘭的土地供給與地價決定，這是由Radboud

University Nijmegen 研究團隊所發表。他們透過分析工業土地價格發現，地方政府於決定地價時，確實合理考慮了相關市場因素，而且價格水準接近成本，荷蘭長期以來，地方政府都是工業土地的主要、甚至是獨供給占者。加上各地方政府間的競爭，該國工業土地長期以來價格穩定且極少炒作。荷蘭的土地供給以及政

府角色，提供臺灣一個不同的思考觀點。Radboud University Nijmegen 為荷蘭土地

市場研究重鎮，擁有規模極大的研究團隊。本人也藉此機會和該文作者之一 Professor Erwin van der Krabben 交換意見，未來也可伺機發展個人或校際合作。

二、與會心得

這次與會主要有兩方面心得；其一是不動產研究的取向，第二是不動產教育的發展。在研究取向上，歐洲地區自成與北美有別的體系，對於不動產研究以英國為首，但是近年也同時關心美國財務及量化方法的發展。在歐洲不動產學會年會中，任何與土地資源使用相關的議題都被視為不動產範疇，因此不僅可以聆聽不動產投資財務的文章，也有都市更新、住戶心理、住宅政策等議題，非常多元。

另外歐洲大學對於不動產教育雖然受到美國量化取向的影響，增加財務相關課程，但是仍然保有其估價（surveying）的傳統，也就是學科整合的教學特色。

三、考察參觀活動(無是項活動者略)

Eindhoven 為飛利浦公司所在，也以產業創新聞名。飛利浦公司由於轉型所需，將若干生產線轉移他處，因此出現舊廠房利用的問題。有別於拆除出售的傳統模式，當地政府、飛利浦公司以及非營利住宅組織，多年來試圖再利用廢棄之舊廠房。大會特別安排與會者參觀這些舊廠房的利用。

舊廠房主要結構保留，並且以低廉租金出租給年輕初創業之公司。因此幾間小公司可以共同使用某一樓層，並且由非營利之組織協助對外行銷。這裡大多數的 start-up 公司，都與科技、多媒體有關。其中一間廠房，目前也提供年輕朋友從事滑板運動。整個沿著鐵路的廠區，經過多年經營，已經發展出特有的文化以及企業氛圍。如此一來，不但避免了常見的衰敗過程，甚至吸引建商興建住宅，

未來也計劃興建地標式建築，可以視為成功的褐地再開發（ brownfield redevelopment）案例。

四、建議

這次會議收穫甚豐，也從中體會到一些可供臺灣參考的經驗。首先在於臺灣不動產相關學科的研究與教育方面，我們未必要採美式財務取向，歐式多元取向似乎與地政傳統較為接近。另外，未來在臺灣舉辦國際會議時，可以適當地加入探討臺灣的特別場次，邀請各國學者參加，如此可以獲得更多不同的觀點。最後，

臺灣學術會議中甚少業界參與，但是不動產是門應用科學，產官學如果能夠聚在一起研討，對於專業教育及產業品質的提升是極有助益的。

另外，這類的會議不僅具有學術交流功能，也是社交場合。臺灣大學的老師及研究生應積極提升語言能力，並盡量參與國際會議，拓展個人及臺灣海外網絡。本人也觀察到，大陸與會人數逐年上升，語言能力顯著進步，甚至也有多位留在歐洲大學任教。這些都是臺灣學者必須正視的。

今年共有五位臺灣學者與會。除本人外，尚有本人同事一位，臺北大學、長榮大學以及屏東商業技術學院各一位，皆為政大地政系系友。未來參與人數可以再增加，提升臺灣的影響力。

五、攜回資料名稱及內容

論文摘要集、紀念背包、Technology University of Eindhoven 不動產研究雜誌。

六、其他（發表論文內容）

Economic Life of Buildings in a Large City

Tzu-Chin Lin, Associate Professor

Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University [email protected]

Eindhoven, ESES, 2011/6/18

Abstract

To tear down or put up a building is not only an engineering matter, it involves also economic considerations. Moreover, pressure on land (re)development could be substantial in a city where housing price has skyrocketed. Physical fabrics play a critical role in a city’s competitiveness but are constantly ignored in theories. An inert response of housing supply to economic needs is argued to likely contribute to an elevated housing price and subsequently wide-ranging adverse effects. Taipei has indeed in recent years suffered an escalating housing price and a number of unfavourable phenomena that seem to have met the dismal prediction. We examine in depth the official records of building demolition and construction in the hope to understand how the housing market has acted to the price signals. It is concluded that, firstly, the supply of building spaces does not seem to be able to lessen the escalating housing price. In addition, not only those old neighborhoods with aged buildings but also the pricey neighborhoods have observed most activities of teardowns. Thirdly, buildings made of concrete tend to be replaced significantly earlier than its end of physical life. In contrast, a notable proportion of brick and wood buildings stand longer than their physical life. Fourthly, a substantial number of new spaces are supplied on the raw land of the outer areas. But few new spaces are supplied to the deteriorating areas where redevelopment is in urgent need. Fifthly, no favourable prospect of labour or housing rental market is in a near sight, and therefore a timely and significant amount of new housing supply have become essential for Taipei’s continuing leading edge. Finally, with the shrinking population islandwide including Taipei, the lack of incentive to redevelop deteriorating old neighborhoods might lead to a further decline of the inner city and financial difficulties with providing public facilities there.

Keywords: housing supply, land (re)development, teardowns, construction

City Competitiveness and Space Supply

A city is often presented as an agglomeration of people and firms where trade and production occur. In order for trade and production to take place, physical structures are required. The expansion of such economic activities, that is, urban growth, naturally calls for more supply of floor spaces. In a city where housing supply is elastic, when the city grows, the increase in demand is expected to bring forwards new supply of housing and more population, thus the corresponding increase in housing prices would be modest. The additional labour supply made possible through creation of new hosuing helps ensure that more demand on labour will not lead to a significant increase in wages. In comparison, in a city where housing supply is inelastic, when the city grows, impact will not be reflected on new construction or its population, but on housing price. Furthermore, not only will the price of houses rise, but also the wage in that the workers have to be compensated for the higher housing price. Some firms will therefore leave for places with a lower wage.

People who afford to continue living in this city tend to be those with a higher wage and better skills. Younger people and talented outsiders will be priced out of the city. The consequent concentration of a small elite group might not immediately harm the city’s economic vitality, but will be likely to damage its future. Alongside with the above line of arguments, Glaeser (2006) and Glaeser et al. (2006) highlight a number of adverse economic and social consequences when housing supply cannot keep pace with urban growth; including worsening housing affordability, declining urban population, greater volatility of housing price, shrinking employment and income, and less diversified demographic mix.

The inflexibility of housing supply could be resulting from a legal restriction imposed by the city or the natural scarcity of land. In the former case, the new supply can come forward through the relaxation of restriction. In contrast, for a city with a scanty supply of land and no place to expand, redevelopment of built-up sites at a higher density will be a most sensible policy. To tear down a building is not only an engineering matter, it involves also economic considerations. Barlev and May (1976) reason that buildings will be torn down when there are financial incentives to redevelop a site. They, through a case study of New York City, find that a heavier property tax, and a higher income level will hasten building demolition. In contrast, a higher interest rate, a larger building stock, a higher construction cost will prolong the time a building has stood. Weber et al. (2006) employ the logit model to investigate the determinants of tearing down a building. They suggest that aged buildings tend to suffer from functional obsolescence. A building inflicted with incurable functional obsolescence is likely to be torn down earlier than others. The degree of building depreciation therefore represents the likelihood that a building will be torn down. Empirical evidence suggests a higher age, a lower floor-to-land ratio, a better

access to public transportation and Chicago Lake will raise the possibility of a building to be knocked down sooner. Dye and McMillen (2007) also examines the Chicago metropolitan areas, and find the followings factors to be positively associated with the occurrence of building teardowns: better access to rapid transit line and Lake Michigan, a larger lot site, a higher floor-to-land ratio, among others. They also find the price of those properties that were demolished soon after their sales is irrelevant to building attributes (building materials, design style…). The price paid for those soon-to-be-demolished properties is for the land only.

These studies clearly suggest that demolition of a building, in particular in a major city, is largely an economic phenomenon. The possibility of a building to be torn down is not uniform across neighborhoods, and can reasonably be explained by a number of economic and social parameters. In addition, the teardowns possibility is associated with the expected value of a new property on a redeveloped site, especially in a city with scarcity of land. Moreover, pressure of land redevelopment is great in a city where demand significantly outstrips supply. In consequence, buildings in such a city are prone to be knocked down far ahead of the time when they are physically obsolete. In other words, the economic life of a building is shorter than its physical life. The timing of a building to be torn down is primarily explained by three groups of factors: the characteristics of building itself (materials, design…), accessibility to transport nodes and amenity (rapid transit line, lake…), as well as socio-economic conditions (income, land use zoning…).

To tear down a building is not only an engineering matter, it involves also economic considerations. Barlev and May (1976) reason that buildings will be torn down when there are financial incentives to redevelop a site. They, through a case study of New York City, find that a heavier property tax, and a higher income level will hasten building demolition.

In contrast, a higher interest rate, a larger building stock, a higher construction cost will prolong the time a building has stood. Weber et al. (2006) employ the Logit model to investigate the determinants of tearing down a building. They suggest that aged buildings tend to suffer from functional obsolescence. A building inflicted with incurable functional obsolescence is likely to be torn down earlier than others. The degree of building depreciation therefore represents the likelihood that a building will be torn down.

Empirical evidence suggests a higher age, a lower floor-to-land ratio, a better access to public transportation and Chicago Lake will raise the possibility of a building to be

在文檔中不動產估價成本法中重要觀念的討論與實證 (頁 52-76)