• 沒有找到結果。

The contributions of this study are both academic and practical. Academically, it has verified the advantages of machine-learning techniques over conventional analytic tools, and of the action-research approach to CRM problems. Practically, it has important implications for organizations who might wish to learn from T-Company’s experience of applying machine-learning techniques on CRM.

Apart from finance and telecommunications, scant CRM research has focused on the service sector, despite data-mining techniques’ demonstrated capability to uncover hidden patterns in large-scale data that can help CRM processes become more effective, and the critical importance of shaping customers’ perceptions of services – i.e., that the overall image created by service providers can significantly influence service quality, and thus further influence customers’ choices of the service providers (Ince & Bowen, 2011; Wei et al., 2013;

Xiao & Nicholson, 2011).

The present research used machine learning-based data-mining techniques and an action-research approach to improve the CRM process of a large car-sales and maintenance company. The decision-tree model selected to generate recommended-customer lists succeeded in helping the company’s frontline technicians better distinguish between customers, and thus improve their operating efficiency and effectiveness. The results of this case support the advantages of applying machine-learning techniques even in service industries where the number of transactions per customer are relatively rare.

Much as Croteau and Li (2003) suggested, the present results imply that before project implementation, all the required IT infrastructure and technical staff should be ready;

and from the outset, the organization should clearly define its problem and list all the necessary data sources precisely. Additionally, high-level managers should explain their CRM strategic plan to their employees, and link it to specific targets for them to follow.

Managers must address the benefits of using the new techniques to their business operations, and commit to providing the required support and resources. If a CRM project is cross-functional, different functions of the organization should be integrated and connected, ideally with the involvement of top-level managers. During implementation, monitoring and reporting is essential for model improvement. And the organization should strive to enhance model performance even as they implement it continuously.

The features of service-sector CRM applications are closely interrelated with human factors. Unlike in other industries, people are the most important element of service providers.

Therefore, when implementing new techniques, staff commitment and motivation are the key factors to success, and businesses should therefore allow ample time not only for training employees in the use of the new techniques, but also for convincing them that such techniques can bring advantages to themselves as well as to the company.

立 政 治 大 學

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

21

This research has certain limitations. First, because the data used were all from one company operating in one country, its outcomes may not be generalizable to other companies or places. Future research should therefore explore additional cases. Second, only 27 vehicle-maintenance plants were utilized in the experiment, which lasted only five months, which may not have been sufficient to verify the reliability and validity of the model. Third, among a number of machine learning-based data-analytic models including neural networks, SVMs, nearest neighbor, and so forth, only decision trees were used, and this could further limit the applicability of the analytical results. And fourth, the experimental method and the methods of evaluating model performance were both designed specifically for this case, meaning that applications of a similar approach in studies of other firms will require adaptations.

Ali A., Morteza S., & Zahra J. (2012). An intelligent decision support system for forecasting and optimization of complex personnel attributes in a large bank. Expert Systems with Applications, 39, 12358–12370.

Almotairi, M. (2008, May). CRM success factors taxonomy. European and Mediterranean Conference on Information Systems, Dubai, UAE.

Alpaydin, E. (2004). Introduction to machine learning. London, England: MIT Press.

Alt, R., & Puschmann, T. (2004, January). Successful practices in customer relationship management. Proceedings of the 37th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences 2004, Big Island, Hawaii, USA.

Baroudi, R. (2014). KPIs: Winning tips and common challenges. Performance, 6(2), 36-43.

Bhattacharyya, S., Jha, S., Tharakunnel, K., & Westland, J. C. (2011). Data mining for credit card fraud: A comparative study. Decision Support Systems, 50, 602-613.

Bose, I., & Mahapatra, R. K., (2001). Business data mining – a machine learning perspective.

Information & Management, 39, 211-225.

Bryman, A., & Bell, E. (2011). Business research methods (3rd ed.). Oxford, England:

Oxford University Press.

Campbell, A. J. (2003). Creating customer knowledge competence: Managing customer relationship management programs strategically. Industrial Marketing Management, 32, 375-383.

Chen, Q., & Chen, H.-m. (2004). Exploring the success factors of eCRM strategies in practice. Database Marketing & Customer Strategy Management, 11(4), 333-343.

Coghlan, D., & Brannick, T. (2001), Doing action research in your own organization. London:

Sage.

Coughlan, P., & Coghlan, D. (2002). Action research for operations management.

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 22(2), 220-240.

Coussement, K., Lessmann, S., & Verstraeten, G. (2017). A comparative analysis of data preparation algorithms for customer churn prediction: A case study in the telecommunication industry. Decision Support Systems, 95, 27-36.

Croteau, A.-M., & Li, P. (2003). Critical success factors for CRM technological initiatives.

Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, 20(1), 21-34.

El-Zehery, A. M., El-Bakry, H. M., & El-Kasasy, M. S. (2013). Applying data mining

techniques for customer relationship management: A survey. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, 11(11), 76-82.

Faggella, D. (2016). What is machine learning?

https://www.techemergence.com/what-is-machine-learning/, accessed 30 September 2017.

Ince, T., & Bowen, D. (2011). Consumer satisfaction and services: Insights from dive tourism.

Service Industry Journal, 31(11), 1769-1792.

Iriana, R., & Buttle, F. (2007). Strategic, operational, and analytical customer relationship management: Attributes and measures. Journal of Relationship Marketing, 5(4), 23-42.

Jones, S., Johnstone, D., & Wilson, R. (2015). An empirical evaluation of the performance of binary classifiers in the prediction of credit ratings changes. Journal of Banking &

Finance, 56, 72-85.

Jones, S., Johnstone, D., & Wilson, R. (2017). Predicting corporate bankruptcy: An evaluation of alternative statistical frameworks. Journal of Business Finance &

Accounting, 44(1-2), 3-34.

King, S. F. &, Burgees, T. F. (2008). Understanding success and failure in customer relationship management. Industrial Marketing Management, 37, 421-431.

Kotsiantis, S. B. (2007). Supervised machine learning: A review of classification techniques.

Informatica, 31, 249-268.

Kracklauer, A. H., Mills, D. Q., & Seifert, D. (2004). Customer management as the origin of collaborative customer relationship management. Collaborative Customer Relationship Management - taking CRM to the next level, 3–6.

Krishna, G., & Vadlamani, R. (2016). Evolutionary computing applied to customer relationship management: A survey. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 56, 30-59.

Larivie, B., & Van den Poel, D. (2005). Predicting customer retention and profitability by using random forests and regression forests techniques. Expert Systems with Applications, 29, 472-484.

Lewin, K. (1946). Action Research and Minority Problems. Journal of Social Issues, 2(4), 34-46.

Liu, H., & Yu, L. (2005). Toward integrating feature selection algorithms for classification and clustering. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 17(4), 491-502.

Maestrini, V., Luzzini, D., Shani, A. B., & Canterino, F. (2016). The action research cycle reloaded: Conducting action research across buyer-supplier relationships. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, 22, 289-298.

Martens, D., Vanthienen, J., Verbeke, W., & Baesens, B. (2011). Performance of classification models from a user perspective. Decision Support Systems, 51(4), 782-793.

Malik, F. (2013). Application of data mining in changing times and its role in future. Indian Journal of Commerce & Management Studies, 4(1), 73-77.

Microsoft Azure (2017). Two-class boosted decision tree. Retrieved October 14, 2017, from https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/azure/dn906025.aspx

Mitchell, T. M. (1997). Machine learning. New York City, United States: McGraw-Hill.

Mohri, M., Rostamizadeh, A., & Talwalkar, A. (2012). Foundations of machine learning.

Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press.

Murphy, K. P. (2012). Machine learning: A probabilistic perspective. London, England: MIT Press.

Ngai, E.W.T., Xiu, L, & Chau, D.C.K. (2009). Application of data mining techniques in customer relationship management: A literature review and classification. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2), 2592-2602.

Olafsson, S., Li, X., & Wu, S. (2008). Operations research and data mining. European Journal of Operational Research, 187, 1429-1448.

Özden Gür Ali, & Umut Arıtürk. (2014). Dynamic churn prediction framework with more effective use of rare event data: The case of private banking. Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 7889–7903.

Pan, Z., Ryu, H., & Baik, J. (2007, August). A case study: CRM adoption success factor analysis and six sigma DMAIC application. Fifth International Conference on Software Engineering Research, Management and Applications, Busan, South Korea.

Parvatiyar, A., & Sheth, J. N. (2001). Customer relationship management: Emerging practice, process, and discipline. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 3(2), 1-34.

Patidar, P., & Tiwari, A. (2013). Handling missing value in decision tree algorithm.

International Journal of Computer Applications, 70(13), 31-36.

Prinzie, A., & Van den Poel, D. (2008). Random forests for multiclass classification Random MultiNomial Logit. Expert Systems with Applications, 34, 1721-1732.

Samuel, Arthur L. (1959). Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers.

IBM Journal of Research and Development. 3(3), 210-229.

SAS (2017). Machine learning: What it is and why it matters. Retrieved September 14, 2017, from https://www.sas.com/it_it/insights/analytics/machine-learning.html

Swift, R. S. (2001). Accelerating customer relationships: Using CRM and relationship technologies. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall PTR.

Wei, J.-T., Lee, M.-C., Chen, H.-K., & Wu, H.-H. (2013). Customer relationship management in the hairdressing industry: An application of data mining techniques.

Expert Systems with Applications, 40, 7513-7518.

Chiang, W. Y. (2012). To establish online shoppers’ markets and rules for dynamic CRM systems: An empirical case study in Taiwan. Internet Research, 22(5), 613-625.

立 政 治 大 學

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

25

West, P. M., Brockett, P. L., & Golden, L. L. (1997). A comparative analysis of neural networks and statistical methods for predicting consumer choice. Marketing Science, 14(4), 370-391.

Xiao, S. H., & Nicholson, M. (2011). Mapping impulse buying: A behaviour analysis framework for services marketing and consumer research. Service Industry Journal, 31(15), 2515-2528.

Appendix A. Information Attribute Inputted for Decision Tree Model

Customer Information Attribute Notes

I.D Card No. of the new license plate received person

I.D Card No. of the car user

I.D Card No. of the invoice recipient

I.D Card No. of the contact person

I.D Card No. of the maintenance service contact person Number of cars owned by new license plate received person

Number of cars owned by car user

Number of cars owned by invoice received person

Number of cars owned by contact person

Number of cars owned by maintenance service contact person Postal code of new license plate received person

Postal code of car user

Postal code of invoice received person

Postal code of contact person

Postal code of maintenance service contact person Gender of new license plate received person

Gender of car user

Gender of invoice received person

Gender of contact person

Gender of maintenance service contact person

Age of new license plate received person

Age of car user

Age of invoice received person

Age of contact person

Age of maintenance service contact person

Number of complaints From telephone survey

Car Information Attribute Notes

License Plate Number

Car Brand

Car Name

Car Type

Car classification 1.Private

2.Business

Driving rate per 10,000 kilometers L: Low, H: High

Average kilometers driven per year

Maintenance Information Attribute Notes

Customer designated maintenance plants

Latest maintenance date

Latest maintenance plants

Latest maintenance recorded odometer

Latest panel-beating or car-paintng date

Latest panel-beating or car-paintng plants Latest panel-beating or car-paintng recorded odometer

Latest regular maintenance date

Latest regular maintenance plants

Latest regular maintenance recorded odometer

Regular maintenance reminder E: Email

S: SMS T: Telephone D: DM

Contact person 1. New license plate

received person

Number of panel-beating and car-paintng

Panel-beating and car-paintng revenue

Regular maintenance every year or not Y: Yes, N: No

Latest maintenance date over 1 year but within 2 years Y: Yes, N: No The number of days passed since the latest panel-beating or

car-paintng date

The number of days passed since the latest regular maintenance date

Next regular maintenance date

The number of days passed since the next regular maintenance date

Number of online reservations for maintenance by app Number of online reservations for maintenance by web page Number of maintenance times due to inducing

Number of reservations due to inducing

Number of times for failed inducing

Number of times for successful inducing

Number of times for postponed reminder

Number of times for failed reminder

Number of times for successful reminder

Maintenance reservation type 1. Every 1,000

kilometers

Maintenance reservation source 1. Induced by

maintenance plants 2. Induced by agents 3. Reserved by customer 4. Reserved by sales 5. Online reservation

Qualified to purchase product A Y: Yes, N: No

(The warranty period is within 4 years, or the odometer is under 120,000 kilometers) Average usage of customer's reward points per year

Have purchased product B or not Y: Yes, N: No Age of maintenance service contact person when product B sold The sum of used customer's reward points before purchased

product B

The sum of total customer's reward points before purchased product B

Number of purchase times of the car damage insurance Total premium for the car damage insurance Annual premium for the car damage insurance

Duration of the accident insurance

Number of purchase times of the accident insurance

立 政 治 大 學

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

30

Total premium for the accident insurance

Annual premium for the accident insurance

Duration of the passenger insurance

Number of purchase times of the passenger insurance

Total premium for the passenger insurance

Annual premium for the passenger insurance

Duration of the compulsory insurance

Number of purchase times of the compulsory insurance Total premium for the compulsory insurance Annual premium for the compulsory insurance

Duration of the life insurance

Number of purchase times of the life insurance

Total premium for the life insurance

Annual premium for the life insurance

立 政 治 大 學

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

31

Appendix B. Important Variables from Decision Tree Regression Results

Important Variables for Product A Correlation Coefficient

Annual premium for the Compulsory insurance 5.20%

Total Premium for the Compulsory insurance 1.50%

Average annual usage of customer's reward points 0.71%

Number of purchase times of the compulsory insurance -0.66%

Annual premium for the car Damage insurance 0.50%

Average miles driven per year -0.49%

Gender of New License Plate Received Person: Null -0.37%

Total Premium for the car insurance 0.32%

Keep Regular Maintenance every year or not: Yes -0.24%

Maintenance reservation type: Every 1,000 kilometers 0.23%

Number of Panel-beating and Car-paintng times 0.22%

Number of purchase times of the accident insurance -0.21%

Maintenance reservation type: Every 10,000 kilometers 0.19%

Car Name: S 0.19%

Gender of New License Plate Received Person: Female 0.16%

Important Variables for Product B Correlation Coefficient

Number of online reservation times for Maintenance by Web Page

13%

Customer Designated Maintenance Plants: C 0.14%

Gender of Maintenance Service Contact Person: Female -0.11%

Number of Panel-beating and Car-paintng times 0.084%

Gender of New License Plate Received Person: Null -0.056%

Customer Designated Maintenance Plants: D 0.028%

Driving frequency per 10,000 kilometers: Low 0.028%

Car classification: Null 0.028%

相關文件