This study makes two main contributions: firstly, it provides an improved Hybrid AHP, which not only improves the reliability of the traditional AHP approach but also mitigates the subjective bias of connotation in expert questionnaires, and secondly, it provides an insight into what criteria are used to evaluate electronics assembly-type manufacturing investments in China, and where, if we take the four major factors into account, the preferred site for such investments is to be found. Our research identified the following key criteria: tax incentives (TAI) (Economic factor), policy uncertainty (POU) (Political factor), position in supply chain (SCP) (Cluster effect factor), and infrastructure readiness (IFS) and local government rapid response ability (GQA) (Government bureaucracy). The preferred site for Taiwanese assembly manufacturers to make manufacturing investments is eastern China, which covers Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. This conclusion is consistent with the 2007 Taiwanese government sta-tistics (see Table 2).
We further made detailed analysis of the list of Taiwan’s top 1,000 manufacturers in 2007 and found that there were 179 electronics related manufacturing enterprises lo-cated in the south, 197 lolo-cated in the east, 3 lolo-cated in the centre, and 13 lolo-cated in the north of China. This enhances our findings. The Shenzhen Special Economic Zone was the first coastal area in China opened to foreign investors, especially to Hong Kongese, Japanese, and Taiwanese enterprises. With the advantage of geographical proximity to Hong Kong, and the special consignment contract manufacturing busi-ness model to rely on, the southern region easily absorbed a large number of foreign manufacturing businesses. Due to hinterland development limitations in the south, the eastern region had a greater opportunity to attract large-scale foreign investors than the south. When large scale manufacturers move, overall supply chain vendors also move. Here, the central government used more resources to attract companies and help them develop.
The eastern region, especially Shanghai, is the focus of the central government. Un-doubtedly, foreign enterprises prefer to locate here where they enjoy certain policies and administrative advantages. In addition to enjoying government policies viewed as favorable to business, the eastern region has a vast plain of land that can fully meet any manufacturing enterprise expansion requirements. Having enough territory has facilitated the formation of industry clusters. This is a very important reason for es-tablishing manufacturing sites in the eastern region.
The purpose of Taiwanese electronics assembly manufacturers making investment in China is to fully take advantage of cheaper labor costs and to make profits. The posi-tion of most assembly type enterprises in China is factories. Therefore, its major func-tion to the mother company is cost contribufunc-tion. In Table 17, we can see that most sampled companies’ contribution margin to standalone margin is positive, which means that factories in China have a cost advantage. In Table 18, from return on in-vestment (ROI) perspectives, we can see that most sampled companies’ ROI is very high. For factories, we defined return as from the margin contribution perspective. In Table 19, we can see sampled companies’ investment amount in China is in an up-trend direction, meaning that they do have a margin contribution.
Table 17 Margin Analysis
STD M% Con M% (+/-)% STD M% Con M% (+/-)% STD M% Con M% (+/-)%
5371 Coretronic Corp 10.33% 13.19% 27.68% 10.67% 13.56% 27.04% 8.93% 12.75% 42.81%
3380 Alpha netwok 17.54% 18.50% 5.46% 15.60% 16.13% 3.37% 17.83% 18.12% 1.63%
2340 OptoTech Corp 16.43% 16.55% 0.73% 32.31% 31.03% -3.96% 29.70% 28.93% -2.61%
2391 ZyXEL Communications 30.36% 34.17% 12.55% 26.13% 29.25% 11.94% 24.52% 31.86% 29.97%
2449 King Yuan Electronics 18.84% 18.59% -1.34% 30.20% 29.11% -3.63% 25.47% 23.63% -7.23%
2352 BENQ 5.31% 8.39% 57.96% 2.72% 8.16% 199.79% 1.75% 9.25% 428.54%
6133 Golden Bridge Bectech 18.96% 28.35% 49.52% 22.61% 30.12% 33.18% 23.61% 25.51% 8.04%
2380 Avision Inc 25.63% 27.21% 6.15% 19.49% 22.75% 16.70% 19.91% 23.84% 19.73%
2345 Accton Tech 16.80% 18.18% 8.18% 13.66% 18.64% 36.44% 12.93% 18.59% 43.73%
3059 Altek Corp 8.32% 14.03% 68.64% 14.21% 17.67% 24.36% 7.40% 12.04% 62.60%
3231 Wistron Corp 5.96% 6.42% 7.80% 6.44% 6.67% 3.57% 5.31% 6.40% 20.57%
3290 Donpon Precision 16.36% 10.79% -34.04% 19.55% 15.67% -19.83% 12.18% 24.44% 100.59%
2382 Quanta Computer 5.91% 6.07% 2.62% 4.63% 5.66% 22.23% 3.68% 5.18% 40.90%
2317 Hon Hai Precision 5.72% 10.34% 80.65% 5.47% 9.89% 80.91% 4.78% 9.84% 105.90%
STD M%: Standalone margin; Con M%: Consolidated margin
2005 2006 2007
Stock Market
listed code Company name
Table 18 Return on investment
2006 (+/-)%
5371 Coretronic Corp 104.56% 122.79% 124.44% 1.34%
3380 Alpha netwok 29.07% 27.29% 31.18% 14.26%
2340 OptoTech Corp 12.53% 23.55% 10.68% -54.67%
2391 ZyXEL Communications 108.87% 135.63% 156.65% 15.49%
2449 King Yuan Electronics 2.99% 0.38% -1.93% -613.01%
2352 BENQ 128.62% 196.99% 184.74% -6.22%
6133 Golden Bridge Bectech 63.46% 99.36% 75.40% -24.11%
2380 Avision Inc 10.15% 19.32% 24.03% 24.41%
2345 Accton Tech 79.99% 115.62% 70.81% -38.75%
3059 Altek Corp 100.46% 102.55% 81.57% -20.45%
3231 Wistron Corp 27.82% 12.43% 60.29% 384.90%
3290 Donpon Precision 5.03% 16.71% 81.22% 386.18%
2382 Quanta Computer 123.31% 127.77% 109.90% -13.98%
2317 Hon Hai Precision 141.67% 234.92% 314.73% 33.97%
Formula: (consolidated margin - standard margin) / investment Stock Market 2007
listed code Company name 2005 2006
Table 19 Amount investment in China
2006 (+/-)%
5371 Coretronic Corp 3,174 4,035 4,930 22.20%
3380 Alpha netwok 593 827 1,150 39.01%
2340 OptoTech Corp 553 553 1,205 117.85%
2391 ZyXEL Communications 864 868 1,101 26.88%
2449 King Yuan Electronics 1,570 1,885 1,875 -0.51%
2352 BENQ 6,392 7,610 7,227 -5.03%
6133 Golden Bridge Bectech 313 313 313 0.00%
2380 Avision Inc 977 1,026 1,191 16.09%
2345 Accton Tech 1,255 1,284 1,690 31.56%
3059 Altek Corp 1,045 1,653 1,888 14.21%
3231 Wistron Corp 4,848 5,483 6,066 10.62%
3290 Donpon Precision 352 344 350 1.99%
2382 Quanta Computer 4,250 7,089 12,146 71.33%
2317 Hon Hai Precision 42,022 34,469 34,469 0.00%
Unit: NT$ Million
Company name 2005 2006 2007
Stock Market listed code
Based on previous findings, we know that policy uncertainty is more important than information transparency. Policy uncertainty means that there are no clear policies, or that the policies are liable to change. Although China has reformed and liberalized over the last three decades, the economic and legal systems are still not well
estab-not. The most difficult issue for enterprises regarding policy change is its unpredicta-bility. Without clear policy guidance, it is very difficult for enterprises to make global strategic arrangements in advance. For instance, initially, the eastern region encour-aged heavy industry. However, due to industry policy change, the Shanghai govern-ment has already stipulated that certain heavily energy-dependent industries will be banned from the Shanghai area in the future. This rejection will probably end up creating opportunities for other areas, and may further affect investment in such fields as semi-conductors and the packing industry. With a highly developed economy, energy demand is increasing rapidly. Due to demand far exceeding supply, energy shortages are becoming a serious problem. This problem has recently been getting worse in the south and the east. Most manufacturers in both areas have suffered cost increases due to losses resulting from energy shortages.
In addition to energy shortages, China recently adjusted its export tax refund rate downward which is creating serious damage for those slim margin industries such as the textile and electronics component businesses. Export refund tax rate has been ad-justed from 13% to 4%, depending on the industry. Meanwhile, the corporate income tax rate will be raised to 25% which is the same as Taiwan’s, and its dividend tax rate will also be raised to 20% from 0%. Even though there is a transition period, most profitable foreign businesses have commenced to restructure their equity holding structure from the British Virgin Islands (B.V.I) to HK or Singapore for tax-saving purposes. The tax rate for HK and Singapore businesses is different because HK is a Special Administrative Region of China.
In the past three decades, China attracted foreign investment successfully with its cheaper labor costs. However, the stage of using cheaper costs to attract foreign direct investment is complete. The Chinese government is now changing its role from world factory to world market. A world market requires that people’s incomes increase. In the past three decades, China has successfully earned a huge foreign surplus of around USD 2.0 trillion through capacity investment. However, the annual average income of the large middle-class of workers and farmers’ on the basis of purchasing power pari-ty calculations is still below USD5,400. The middle-class population is around four hundred million. If the income of the middle-class can be increased, a world market can be formed through their consumption. To achieve this goal, the Chinese govern-ment has released a new labor contract law. In this newly released law, salaries, ser-vice period, and serser-vice conditions are well protected, which will greatly increase manufacturer’s labor costs. To those enterprises which take full advantage of the cheaper labor costs, business operation reaches a critical point when labor contract law is actually being put into practice.
An effective, forward-thinking policy will attract local and foreign investors, and will prompt them to continue investing. An effective policy takes into account the economic, political, industrial, administrative and social ramifications of policy deci-sions. A state, a region or country that supports continuous investments will stimulate ongoing economic growth. In this research, we did not attempt to compare the region-al policies of the southern region with those of the eastern region. Future studies could clarify if they had a role in manufacturing moving from the south to the east.
In order to completely reflect operation environment change, we have raised some critical issues which have already happened, such as corporate income tax rate in-creases, dividend tax upward adjustments, export tax refund rate downward adjust-ments, labor service contracts, Chinese currency appreciation, and energy shortages.
These issues will seriously damage manufacturing business profits. We need to make an in-depth observation of the influence of these policies. Future studies could clarify whether these issues will impact manufacturing business operation decisions in China and further make operation withdrawal decisions if the whole operating environment is deteriorating. Meanwhile, further research into the influence of policies on invest-ment attitudes could result in a better understanding of this phenomenon.
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Appendix
1. Calculation flowchart -Bootstrapping2. Program-Bootstrapping
Sub Area()
' Area Macro ' 快速鍵: Ctrl+r '
Dim Message, Title, Default, Sampling_Size, Repeat_Times, Confidence_Level, Msg_var
Message = "Enter a Sampling Size between 1 to 17"
Title = "Sampling Size"
Default = "17"
10 Sampling_Size = InputBox(Message, Title, Default, 100, 100) If Sampling_Size > 17 Then GoTo 10
Repeat_Times = InputBox(Message, Title, Default, 100, 100) Message = "Enter confidence level" ' 設定提示訊息。
Title = "Confidence Level" ' 設定標題。
Default = "0.95" ' 設定預設值。
Confidence_Level = InputBox(Message, Title, Default, 100, 100)
Range("F3").Select
Range(Selection, Selection.End(xlDown)).Select Range("F3:F19").Select
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0_);[紅色](0)"
Range("F3:K19").Select Selection.ClearContents
Range("F23:K60000").Select Selection.ClearContents
Range("H3:K20").Select
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
For x = 1 To Repeat_Times
Range("F3:K19").ClearContents
For a = 1 To Sampling_Size
'Random/no Calculation Do
f = "f" + CStr(2 + a)
MyRum = "=INT(RAND()*17+1)"
Range(f).Value = MyRum Range("F3:F19").Select Selection.Copy
Selection.PasteSpecial Paste:=xlPasteValues, Operation:=xlNone, SkipBlanks _
:=False, Transpose:=False
'Check unique
Set Num_Range = Range("F3:F19") Set MyRange = Range(f)
MyCount = WorksheetFunction.CountIf(Num_Range, MyRange)
If MyCount < 2 Then Exit Do Loop
'Sample Series
g = "g" + CStr(2 + a) 'Range(g).Value = CInt(a) Range(g).Value = a H = "H" + CStr(2 + a) Range(H).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=VLOOKUP(RC6,r3c1:r19c5,R1C,0)"
I = "i" + CStr(2 + a) Range(I).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=VLOOKUP(RC6,r3c1:r19c5,R1C,0)"
J = "j" + CStr(2 + a) Range(J).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=VLOOKUP(RC6,r3c1:r19c5,R1C,0)"
K = "k" + CStr(2 + a) Range(K).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=VLOOKUP(RC6,r3c1:r19c5,R1C,0)"
Next a
Range("g21").Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "Sampling Size"
Range("H21").Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = CInt(Sampling_Size)
Range("H20").Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=sum(r3c:r19c)/r21c8"
Range("H20:K20").Select Selection.FillRight
Range("H20:K20").Select
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
Selection.PasteSpecial Paste:=xlValues, Operation:=xlNone, SkipBlanks:= _ False, Transpose:=False
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.00"
K = "g" + CStr(22 + x)
Range(K).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = CInt(x) Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0_);[紅 色](0.000000)"
With ActiveCell.Characters(Start:=1, Length:=7).Font .Name = "Arial"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "Average"
With ActiveCell.Characters(Start:=1, Length:=7).Font .Name = "Arial"
.OutlineFont = False
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
Range(avgt).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=AVERAGE(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times)) + "C8:R[-1]C8)"
'C20 表示 column T
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
Range(avgU).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=AVERAGE(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times)) + "C9:R[-1]C9)"
Range(avgV).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=AVERAGE(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times)) + "C10:R[-1]C10)"
Range(avgW).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=AVERAGE(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times)) + "C11:R[-1]C11)"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "Standard Dev."
With ActiveCell.Characters(Start:=1, Length:=7).Font .Name = "Arial"
.FontStyle = "標準"
.Size = 9
.Strikethrough = False
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=stdev(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times + 1)) + "C8:R[-2]C8)"
'C20 表示 column T Range(stdU).Select
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=stdev(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times + 1)) + "C9:R[-2]C9)"
Range(stdV).Select
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=stdev(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times + 1)) + "C10:R[-2]C10)"
Range(stdW).Select
Selection.NumberFormatLocal = "0.000000_);[紅色](0.000000)"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=stdev(R" + CStr(ActiveCell.Row - CInt(Repeat_Times + 1)) + "C11:R[-2]C11)"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "Confidence Lvl."
With ActiveCell.Characters(Start:=1, Length:=7).Font .Name = "Arial"
.FontStyle = "標準"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = Round((1 - Confidence_Level) / 2, 8)
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "Upper Bond"
With ActiveCell.Characters(Start:=1, Length:=7).Font .Name = "Arial"
Range(upbt).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=confidence(R[3]c,R[-1]c,R[-4]c[-1])+R[-2]c"
Range(upbu).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=confidence(R[3]c[-1],R[-1]c,R[-4]c[-2])+R[-2]c"
Range(upbv).Select
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=confidence(R[3]c[-2],R[-1]c,R[-4]c[-3])+R[-2]c"
ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=confidence(R[3]c[-2],R[-1]c,R[-4]c[-3])+R[-2]c"