Falsification Test

Another possible explanation of the jump other than the

Knowing Taiwan reform

is mental age effect: people who were born on the exact left hand side of the birth month cut-off are more mentally mature than those on the right hand side since they enter school system earlier and thus, at any given time, they may have more working experience and experience dealing with others (they leave the educa-tion system earlier). Being that case, we should observe similar jumps in every yearly cohorts. To examine this speculation, we run regression of equation1with moving fake reform windows.

We reckon 1996, 1995 and 1994 as fake textbook reform education year and thus treat September 1983, 1982 and1981 as fake birth month cut-off. We then replicate the results in Table2for each fake textbook reform using the same TSCS waves in 2003, 2004, and 2005. Note that we only include two education cohorts on each side of the fake birth month cut-off to make falsification results compa-rable to our main results.

Table 3 shows the results of the falsification regressions. Signs of

FakeText-bookExposure are generally inconsistent across different columns within a fake

reform and nearly no significant result is found except the fake reform in 1996 education year. The magnitudes also largely fluctuate across columns within a panel. Furthermore, we plot the quarterly mean of

Identity (survey year fixed

effects controlled) for each fake reform in AppendixD. No obvious discontinuity around the fake birth month cut-off is displayed. Both the regression results and the visual evidence suggest that mental age effect could not explain the jump we see in Figure5and the significant treatment effects in Table2.

Table 3: Falsification Test of Fake Textbook Reform Dep. Variable:

Identity

[1] [2] [3] [4]

Panel A: September 1983 as Birth Month Cut-Off

FakeT extbookExposure

-0.0545 -0.0449 -0.249** -0.204*

(0.0713) (0.0804) (0.106) (0.117)

Observations 479 479 479 479

R-squared 0.073 0.135 0.083 0.143

Panel B: September 1982 as Birth Month Cut-Off

FakeT extbookExposure

0.0261 -0.00500 0.186 0.187 (0.0986) (0.0994) (0.139) (0.131)

Observations 500 500 500 500

R-squared 0.067 0.131 0.074 0.140

Panel C: September 1981 as Birth Month Cut-Off

FakeT extbookExposure

-0.0116 0.0150 -0.0201 -0.0589 (0.0714) (0.0736) (0.0950) (0.0899)

Observations 509 509 509 509

R-squared 0.058 0.172 0.060 0.173

Linear Trend Yes No Yes No

Quadratic Trend No Yes No Yes

Survey FE Yes Yes Yes Yes

Hometown FE Yes Yes Yes Yes

Demographic No Yes No Yes

Notes: We pool 2003, 2004, 2005 TSCS data. Panel A includes 1994-1997 education cohorts; Panel B, 1993-1996; Panel C, 1992-1995. We define FakeTextbookExposure as respondents born after Sep 1983, 1982 and 1981.

Specifications in each column are the same as in corresponding columns in Table2. Standard errors are clustered at birth month level in parentheses.

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

5 Subgroup Analysis

In this section we investigate the heterogeneity of textbook effect along two di-mensions: education track and the ethnicity distribution of one’s hometown.

We present four piece of evidence in each subgroup analysis, from raw data examination to the regression result of RDD specification, as in section4.1 and section4.4. First we look at the proportion of respondents holding stronger Tai-wanese identity in each subgroup in different survey years. We then run a sim-ple regression of

Identity to see if different subgroup exhibit different Taiwanese

identity pattern on year cohort basis. The specification is as follows:

Identity

_ikjt

= β

₀

+ β

₁

Z

_i

+ β

_2k

Z

_i× ζk

+ ζ

_k

+ η

_j

+ δ

_t

+ ϵ

_ijt, (2)

where

Z

_i is a dummy variable indicating the subgroup division (Edu− Academic or

Home

− Hoklo − Ratio); ζk are education cohort dummies;

η

_j and

δ

_tare home-town and survey year fixed effects. Our interest focuses on β2k. After year cohort analysis, we zoom in and conduct regression discontinuity analysis within each subgroup.

5.1 Heterogeneity: Education Track

One dimension to break up the potential treatment effect heterogeneity is to look into the degree of exposure to the new textbooks. Students who pay more efforts on studying the textbooks are associated with higher treatment intensity in the sense that they may memorize more Taiwan-related texts. The ideal proxy of the intensity is the grade of the social subject in the admission examination of senior

high school/senior vocational school.¹² We do not observe this in the TSCS data, but we could distinguish the rough high/low level of efforts students devoted to general academic subjects in junior high school by their choice of the education track.

After compulsory education, students in Taiwan are divided into two educa-tional tracks: the academic and the vocaeduca-tional tracks. The choice of the track is endogenous and would be highly correlated with the efforts student put in study-ing when in junior high school. For students who had been motivated to pursue more academic knowledge, they would put a great deal of efforts into studying the textbooks so that they could be selected into better senior high schools. On the other hand, common wisdom suggests that parents in Taiwan would encour-age students who lack motivation but are adept at obtaining excellent grades (for example, memorize the material more quickly than an average person) to opt for academic instead of vocational track. Consequently, the division of the education track imply the latent exposure to the

Knowing Taiwan series.

We categorize observations into two groups. Observations with senior high school or university as their final education attainment are labelled with aca-demic track (Edu− Academic equals to 1). Other observations, with junior high school, senior vocational school, college and tech university as final education attainment, are labelled with vocational track (Edu− Academic equals to 0).

In Figure 7, we plot the simple mean of

Identity at education cohort level in

2004 and 2005 survey year. The trend of

Identity before the textbook reform is

not parallel, but we observe that in both 2004 and 2005 waves, students in

aca-12Junior high school graduates, no matter which education track they wish to proceed, took the same national examination and use the scores from that examination to apply for senior high or

.2.4.6.81Taiwanese Identity

1995 1996 1997 1998

Education Cohort

Academic Vocational

2004

.2.4.6.81Taiwanese Identity

1995 1996 1997 1998

Education Cohort

Academic Vocational

2005

Figure 7: National Identity Trend in Different Education Track

Notes: Data is collapsed at education-cohort-survey year level for observations in two education tracks from 2004 and 2005 waves of TSCS. Dots represent the simple mean ofIdentity at each cell.

-0.200.000.200.400.60Taiwanese Identity

1995 1996 1997 1998

Education Cohort

Point estimate 95% CI

Figure 8: Heterogeneity Textbook Effect in Education Track: Cohort Analysis

Notes: We pool 2003, 2004 and 2005 TSCS waves. Point estimates and confidence intervals of β2k

are derived from regression with specification2reckoning 1996 education cohort as reference group. Standard errors are clustered at birth month level.

demic track exhibit more increase of proportion of holding stronger Taiwanese identity once exposed to the textbook reform than students in vocational track.

The two dots from the data of 1998 education cohort surveyed in 2004 should be interpreted with caution, since the sample size in each cell is pretty small (4 and 11 for academic and vocational track respectively). We plot the point estimate and confidence interval of regression result of specification2 in Fig 8. We note that the point estimate of the interaction terms

β

2k are much more higher for ed-ucation cohorts exposed to the new textbook than previous ones, though not all significant.

For regression discontinuity analysis, in Figure9, we plot the mean of

Identity

at birth quarter level (controlling for survey year fixed effect) for academic track (Figure9a) and vocational track (Figure9b) observations separately. We observe a manifest jump around the cut-off in Figure9aand find no systemic pattern of

Identity mean in Fig

9b. We also note that although no systematic variation is found in Figure 9b, the mean level of the dots before and after the birth-moth cut-off are close, hinting that Knowing Taiwan series do not significantly affect the national identity formation for students in vocational track.

Regression results using specification1with academic track observations (Panel A) and vocational track observations (Panel B) are provided in Table4. Results from academic track observations are qualitatively and quantitatively similar across different polynomial settings and the inclusion of demographic variables, while the results from the vocational track are generally not significant and varies in different columns. The estimates show that for academic track students, the new textbook increase their probability of holding stronger Taiwanese identity

by roughly thirty percent, a much larger effect than in the overall samples shown in Table2(18%).

One concern over splitting the sample by self education attainment is the endogeneity; namely, the possibility that the introduction of

Knowing Taiwan

se-ries alters the demographic composition of students in two tracks. Specifically, one might suspect that students who originally hold stronger Taiwanese identity may obtain better academic grades (than weaker Taiwanese identity holders), and hence are more likely to enter academic track. We argue that this is implausible.

According to the score assignment of the admission exam on different subjects, the materials of

Knowing Taiwan series only account for one fifteenths of the total

scores in the exam.¹³

Cantoni et al. (2015) split observations in a similar way with a different goal.

They divide the sample into science and humanity track to tease out the pos-sibility that students holding political ideology similar with the new curricula are more likely to enter Peking University. However, sinceCantoni et al.(2015) conduct the survey in Peking University, which consists of students excel at mem-orizing textbook materials, they could not tell if the new curricula do influence those who does not expend efforts on studying the textbooks. Our results add up evidence in this direction, suggesting that in the case of education content, the degree of exposure matters in terms of the persuasion effect.

13Another relevant issue is the reform of the admission system for senior high and vocational school. Before 1998 education cohort, students in different areas attend “area union examination”

to apply for senior high and vocational schools, whereas for 1998 and later education cohorts, stu-dents across Taiwan attend the same examination and admission channels other than application solely based on examination scores are available. We argue that the reform would not pose seri-ous threat to our estimation results since our the main results comes from the variation between 1996 and 1997 education cohorts, who experience the same admission system.

(a) Academic Track

-.4-.20.2.4

-10 -5 0 5 10

Birth Quarter

(b) Vocational Track

-.20.2.4

-10 -5 0 5 10

Birth Quarter

Figure 9: Heterogeneity Textbook Effect in Education Track: RD visulization

Notes: We pool data from 2003, 2004, 2005 TSCS and include education cohorts from 1995 to 1998. Figure9aincludes observations whose final education level is senior high school or university. Figure9bincludes observations whose educational level is junior high school, senior vocational school, college and tech university. We first regressIdentity on survey year dummies and then collapse the residuals at birth quarter level to derive the dots. Fitted lines are from regression of the dots on a first order polynomial of birth quarter interacted withKnowingT aiwan dummy variable.

Table 4: Heterogeneity Textbook Effect: Education Track Dep. Variable:

Identity

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Panel A: Academic Track

KnowingT aiwan

0.303** 0.284** 0.203 0.231 (0.127) (0.127) (0.194) (0.184) Control Group Mean 0.580 0.580 0.580 0.580

Persuasion Rate 72.1 66.6 48.3 55

Observations 214 214 214 214

R-squared 0.126 0.213 0.129 0.214

Panel B: Vocational Track

KnowingT aiwan

0.0474 0.0269 0.226* 0.128 (0.116) (0.119) (0.119) (0.139) Control Group Mean 0.638 0.638 0.638 0.638

Persuasion Rate 13 7.43 62.4 35.3

Observations 203 203 203 203

R-squared 0.183 0.312 0.201 0.320

Hometown FE Yes Yes Yes Yes

Survey FE Yes Yes Yes Yes

Linear Trend Yes Yes No No

Quadratic Trend No No Yes Yes

Demographic No Yes No Yes

Notes: We pool 2003, 2004, 2005 TSCS data. Panel A includes ob-servations whose final education level is senior high school or uni-versity. Panel B includes observations whose educational level is ju-nior high school, seju-nior vocational school, college and tech univer-sity. Specifications in each column are the same as in corresponding columns in Table2. Standard errors clustered at birth month level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

在文檔中 課綱與國族認同： 探討1997 年國中教科書改革的影響 (頁 40-49)