Chapter 5 Conclusion
5.2 Limitation & Future Directions
The most significant limitation of this research is the representativeness of the
coefficients. Although they show economic sense when explained, few of them actually show
statistic significance due to the constraint of limited observations. Therefore, one should be
careful when interpreting the size, relative scale of and . Instead using the model in this
research for future forecast, it would be safer to say that these models are examples of how
client features could be included and help the forecasting quality of the company.
On the other hand, the data of this research is collected from an existing company
which has yet to adjust their forecasting system to account for the different customer attribute.
Nor do they have very solid idea what are the crucial variables with highest explanatory power.
Therefore, when many of the variables contained in the original data do not show high
correlation with sales, there might be a great deal of other variables with the same relevancy
being left out. This is also a common mis-practice in firms adopting customer database where
database failed to collect the most relevant information and responsible personnel could not
produce optimal results without these crucial information and sometimes might even have to
compromise with currently available variables with small explanatory power. In the future, if
information about customer attributes can be further expanded to cover other aspects that might
also be relevant in explaining sales variation in individual account, forecast results should be
improved. For companies wish to implement this forecasting mechanism, this model
misspecification problem resulted from the gap between the forecast practitioners and
information collector should be eliminated. It would be more effective to have thorough
communication between the sales force composite responsible for collecting client information
and the intelligence department who actually do the final modeling. Understanding from each
party could assure the company with higher chance of collecting the “right” information that
would eventually contribute to better forecasting results.
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