國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
5
1.2 Research Questions
There is still much to be learned about the changing nature of the economic relationship, pushed largely by the growing economic prowess of China, and also the growing populism and backlash against free trade that has taken root in the United States and other rich countries.
China’s return to prominence as a world trade and economic power, has led to deeper consideration among scholars about what economic power means in terms of “real” or
geopolitical power (Okano-Heijmans, 2012). While there are certainly considerable ties between economic strength, the military, and other traditional measures of geopolitical power, economic strength as its own form of power or leverage over other countries is less well understood. This is ironic considering that this is perhaps the most important and interesting form of power in our new world characterized by globalization and interconnectedness. As China’s economy has experienced unprecedented year on year growth the academic and political communities have been quick to question what this means for China’s place in the world and what the Chinese government’s intentions are on the world scale. Most of this research and dialogue have been centered around China’s investments in the South China Sea and military equipment and infrastructure. While this body of research is important for an understanding of Chinese
geopolitical intentions and priorities, these inquiries are certainly not all-encompassing and leave much unexplored about the nature of China’s economic strength, such as where that strength comes from as well as what vulnerabilities exist. For its vast size, the massive body of research surrounding China’s growing influence in the world still leaves many economic questions unanswered. Ironically, the very source of China’s newfound power is still enshrouded in mystery.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
6 This is not unsurprising when considering the complexity of economic ties today and the preponderance of scholars who prefer to study the use of power after its acquisition as opposed to the means of acquisition or its origin. However, particularly in the case of China, it is an important consideration and one that warrants more study. As mentioned at the onset, it is generally accepted that China and the United States are the great powers that will have the heaviest hand in deciding the future, but appreciation for the complex interplay between the two economies doesn’t fit this understanding. In many ways it is this complex economic relationship and its management that will decide the future; therefore, in this circumstance it is important that China’s growing economic power and its sources be clearly understood.
After a more thorough examination of Chinese economic growth this research better explains where this growth has come from as well as whether it translates into economic power that can be used to influence the United States. This research to no surprise finds that China has benefitted more than any other country from international trade, racking up an astounding trade surplus, mostly at the hands of the United States, which is where its rising power as has been studied elsewhere. China and the United States have both benefited from this economic
relationship; however, it has also given rise to dependencies and tensions that call into the future of the relationship. Further study is needed and is preliminarily undertaken in the following chapters to discover whether this co-dependent relationship is sustainable as well as if there are vulnerabilities in the Chinese growth model that limit their economic power as a means of economic coercion. As Stephen Roach explains “the countries (China, and the United States) were united in their fixation on growth and entered into a new and powerful collaboration aimed at achieving that objective. The United States provided China with something very important:
the world’s largest base of external demand that could support China’s export-led production
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
7 model” (Roach, 2014, p. 2). For the United States it was the continued growth of consumption, and to China is was a ticket to greater growth in the manufacturing sector and more foreign exchange holdings, a deal at the time that neither country could afford. However, today that agreement has gone farther than anyone at the time could have foreseen, leaving potentially crippling dependencies on both sides.
Dependencies in International Relations are rarely a good thing because they leave a nation reliant on another for their continued way of life. Vulnerabilities such as this leave the state open to threats or coercion as a means to control the actions of the dependent nation. For this reason, dependency and coercive action have been important subject of study in international relations, and within that realm, economic coercion has grown more prominence (Kirshner, 1995). However, because dependency is more likely larger states dominating smaller states (the measure of size between states being used here is in terms of GDP) there has been relatively less research on the use of economic coercion among powerful states. The Chinese-United States relationship is special case, as Roach continually reminds us, in that there have never been two large economies that have allowed themselves to become so utterly intertwined. For these reasons, the Chinese-United States economic relationship is a good study for furthering of our understanding of economic coercion and its possibilities. It is also a necessary step toward better understanding of the economic realities that exist today and what they could mean for the future of both bilateral Chinese-United States relations as well as the world that relies on them. Lastly it also applies more broadly to the need to expand the scholarship surrounding what “power” is and why it matters where power comes from rather than just how power is used. Economic power has yet to get the focus it deserves. Perhaps showing the integral role that economics plays in the relationship between two of the great powers of the world as they vie for influence
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a
tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
8 will change perceptions of economics both as a means of power but also as a form of power in its own right.
As The United States and China confront each other on a wide range of issues,
economics plays a part to varying degrees, therefore perhaps the biggest question is whether or not economic coercion is a viable tool for either country influence the other and achieve
objectives. The answer to this question is reliant on many other factors, which will also need to be addressed such as: What is the nature of the Chinese-United States relationship, is it virtuous relationship marked by Keohane and Nye’s notion of complex interdependency (Keohane &
Nye, 1987) or is it a relationship that Roach calls codependency (Roach, 2014), wherein the many discernable dependencies that are in constant flux can lead to coercion or conflict aimed from one state to the other; Is the United States more dependent on China (or vice versa) or do they exist largely at parity; where are each countries weakness/strengths and in what situations would they be important. These are the questions that will drive our understanding of the Chinese-United States relationship and will help to reveal what may be coming in the future as the countries and their cooperation (or lack thereof) come to define the future of international relations.