Taiwan has stood steady for the running process of the trade war between China and the US, if the US had the plan to approach Taiwan as a strategy to provoke China either politically or economically, these figures reveal that Sino-US Trade war hasn’t affected trade in values between the US and Taiwan as yet.
The most traded products haven’t changed much, expect for the order of priority of them but the importation and exportation between Taiwan and the US has increased over the year, including 2018 which could have had a greater increase but the number aren’t too impressive. Taiwan and China have managed to keep their trade relation healthy and growing for the past years too and it has not been affected by the conflict.
However, the results for China and the US aren’t as expected by the US government, with the taxation implemented by Trump, it was expected to control China’s surplus over the US by decreasing China’s export to the US and increasing the US’s export to China for a fairer trade relation that Trump has been fighting for, as China’s trade surplus increased in 2018 it has shown that the tariffs threats and tariffs implementations haven’t had a positive effect to the US but a positive effective to China based on Figure 3.1 (p.30) as China exported more and the US export less than expected.
3.2 Sino-US and Brazil
Brazil and the US had a stable trade balance, Brazil exported US$26.8 Billion and imported US$24.8 billion in 2017, the only year Brazil had a trade surplus over the US in the 10 last years. Brazil and China, however had a different trade relation where Brazil exported US$47,8 billion but only imported US$27, 3 billion (MDIC, 2019). In the meantime, China and Taiwan had a big gap in their trade relation as China imports US$155.9 billion but only exports US$43 billion (MOEA, 2018), but the USA has a pretty well balanced trade with Taiwan as the US exports US$30.2 billion and imports US$36.9 billion, not a perfect ratio as the US wants a surplus but it is a better situation than China (MOEA, 2018). The only country that seems not to be doing so well with a bilateral trade is Brazil with Taiwan, as in 2017 exported only US$1.8 billion and imported US$2 billion (MDIC, 2019), with constant decline of trade for the last 10 years.
Brazil and the USA have a considerably more stable trade relation over the last 7 years as so both countries signed an agreement to deepen trade cooperation even though the US has
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
US$7.8 billion surplus over Brazil. Brazil is the “12th largest goods trading partner with US$
66.7 billion in total […] in 2016” but became the 10th largest exporter in 2017 (USTR, 2017).
A comparison of import and export between and the US are shown on figure 3.10 (p.39), which most of the time the US has a trade surplus over Brazil. The US main exports to Brazil in 2017 were Mineral fuels, Aircrafts, machinery, electrical machinery and vehicles. In the agricultural sector, the US exported prepared food, wheat, cotton, dairy products and feed.
Brazil exported US$26.8 billion to the US, the main products exported were also fuels, aircrafts, iron & steel and machinery, as agricultural products unroasted coffee is the main one, followed by fruit, vegetables, red meats, tobacco and essential oils (USTR, 2017).
On figures 3.11 (p.40) and 3.12 (p.41) are the 10 products most traded between Brazil and the US, which crude petroleum is the main product the US is interested in but for the main 10 products exported to Brazil from the US, fuel oil is the main products as the US imports the crude material, refines it and exports it back to Brazil.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.10 – Brazil and the US Trade (2007-2018)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.11 – Brazil Top 10 exports to the US (2017)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.12 – Brazil Top 10 imports from the US (2017)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
The bilateral trade between Brazil and US started suffering some and the US exported to Brazil as much as it used, since 2014 US export to Brazil has decreased year by year while Brazil’s exportation to the US increased and in 2018 Brazil had a minor deficit of US$193 million, which is relevant to Brazil as the trade balance between the two nations isn’t too wide.
In the following figures it is shown that the products traded have had a modification, whether it is due to the trade war this research cannot affirm it. Petroleum is still the main product but manufactured products shown on Figure 3.13 (p.43) seem to take more of US market, this can strengthen Brazil1’s manufacturing industry as the country won’t be exporting commodities only but also its capability to produce machinery, airplanes and other products.
For Brazil’s importation there was also a shift of products, fuel oil is still the main product but the changes are also minor as on Figure 3.14 (p.44), medication becomes the second most imported products which wasn’t among the 10 most trade product in 2017, this might represent a decrease of medication production in Brazil, but most importantly is that Brazil-US bilateral trade is not as unequal as before.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.13 - Brazil Top 10 exports to the US (2018)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.14 - Brazil Top 10 imports from the US (2018)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
As Brazil is an important global player in the international market, it is also relevant to explore Brazil-China’s relationship. As since 1974 Brazil and China have had an intensive diplomatic relation, but in 2009 China became Brazil’s largest and main trading partner and China has invested a lot in Brazil since then, by 2015 Brazil had exported USD 35.6 billion to China and imported US$30.7 billion from China, accumulating US$46 billion surplus over the years. Brazil’s main products exported to China is soy beans totalling 79% of all Brazil’s exports but 46.6% of the top 10 exported products to China and increasing to 82% in 2018, more than US$ 31 million only of soy beans. For this year of 2018 Brazil imported US$34.7 billion up to 21% and exported more than US$64.2 billion (MDIC, 2019).
The following figures show the comparison importation and exportation of 2017 between Brazil and China as in Figure 3.15 (p.46) and Figures 3.16 (p.47) and 3.17 (p.48) represent the 10 most imported and exported products between both nations, respectively.
In 2018, Brazil imported even more drilling rigs and manufactured products from China as Figure 3.18 (p.49) shows but the variety of products were rather similar between the 2017 and 2018, the great difference was in value of trade as in 2018 Brazil exported significantly more than imported with an increase of 35.2% and a surplus of US$29.4 billion. Soy beans remain as the main product China imports from Brazil – Figure 3.19 (p.50) totalling US$27.3 billion of soy beans alone.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.15 – Brazil and China Trade (2007-2018)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.16 - Brazil Top 10 imports from China (2017)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.17 - Brazil Top 10 exports to China (2017)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.18 - Brazil Top 10 imports from China (2018)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 3.19 - Brazil Top 10 exports to China (2018)
Source: Data from MDIC, 2019, http://www.mdic.gov.br/ retrieved in May 2019
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
3.3 Summary
The Brazilian government has its own way to deal with conflict and it is rather different than president Trump. Brazil usually does not directly confront nations, it is the nature of the Brazilian diplomatic system and in trade it wouldn’t be much different. When the trade war started, instead of involving in the conflict and stand for either China or the US, Brazil just looked for opportunity to extend its market instead.
For instance, the Brazilian farmers saw a gap in the soy beans and products supplying in the Chinese market if the US withdrew its supply to China. Brazil started getting ready to fill the gap whenever was necessary due to the possible decrease of commodities trade between China and the US and for 2018, the increase of Brazil’s exportation to China was considerably high. Therefore, the Sino-US trade war hasn’t affected the relation between Brazil and the other three nations in the section, the trade value has just increased, even for the US which there was a considerable increase, not as much as between Brazil and China, but it is an excellent sign of Brazil not being affected by the Sin-US trade war.