economic reforms and achieved sound economic growth. The budget deficit was low compared to Hungary and the Czech Republic. Therefore, even though, there was no short-term positive effect from the EU accession, Poland generated positive impact on the outcome level in the latter years after the global crisis.
Slovak Republic
The data for the Slovak Republic are available from 1992. Thus, the pre-intervention duration is 12 years and post-intervention length remains the same, 14 years. Slovakia is the only V4 country that adopted the common EU currency. The country started to use euro in 2009. According to the preliminary analysis, the results of the SCM analysis for Slovakia are expected to be positive.
Overall, Slovak Republic was the only country that experienced positive effect on all its GDP components. Nonetheless, most of the estimates were statistically insignificant. The lack of match of the variables in the pre-intervention period for investment and net export per capita did not allow to interpret the results.
7.4.1 GDP per capita
The below graph demonstrates the Slovak GDP per capita and synthetic Slovak GDP per capita. The match of the graphs before year 2004 is good. The below graph shows positive effect of entering the EU on the Slovak GDP per capita level. The synthetic Slovak Republic consists of 0.503 Korea, 0.145 Thailand, 0.139 Ukraine, 0.067 Albania, 0.061 Peru, 0.059 New Zealand, 0.026 Japan and 0.002 Russia.
Even though the graph shows relatively strong positive effect of joining the EU, the results were not statistically significant on 10% significance level for any of the post-treatment years. The country joined the eurozone in 2009, therefore, some of the positive results might had been generated by adopting euro. However, if Slovak Republic decided not to enter EU, in 2017, the GDP per capita level would be lower by 3 779 USD. On average, Slovak GDP per capita was higher by 2 646 USD.
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Figure 31: Comparison of GDP per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations
7.4.2 Export per capita
Below graph represents the EU accession effect on the export per capita. The synthetic Slovak Republic is constructed as 0.415 Brazil, 0.256 Belarus, 0.142 Hong Kong, 0.092 Japan, 0.081 Ukraine, 0.008 Russia and 0.007 Uruguay. The match of the variables before year 2004 is good.
Moreover, the graph also shows high slump in exports due to the global economic crisis. Indeed, Slovak Republic joined the monetary union in 2009 and as the monetary policy instruments for those countries that use the common currency are limited, therefore they are usually affected more than those with their own currency.
The p-values were statistically significant on 10% significance level for years 2007, 2015, 2016, 2017. Therefore, we can conclude that joining the EU positively affected the export per capita in the Slovak Republic with statistically significant results for some of the post-treatment years. Without the EU accession, Slovak export per capita would be lower by 8 845 USD. On average, Slovakia gained increase in its exports per capita by 3 871 USD.
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Figure 32: Comparison of export per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations
7.4.3 Import per capita
The below graph illustrates import per capita for Slovakia and synthetic Slovakia. The results are similar to those estimated for the previous variables. The below graph shows positive influence of the EU entry on the Slovak imports. Furthermore, in this case, synthetic Slovak Republic consists of 0.393 Japan, 0.197 Colombia, 0.166 Hong Kong, 0.105 Russia, 0.072 Ukraine and 0.067 Algeria.
Nonetheless, the p-values were not statistically significant for any of the post-treatment years, which was expected since the difference between two variables was not exceptionally large in the first few post-accession years. Furthermore, the match of the pre-treatment period lacks fit. If Slovak Republic did not join the EU, in 2017, the import per capita would be lower by 6 194 USD. Due to the EU membership, the Slovak Republic gained on average an increase of its import per capita by 2 005 USD.
Just as for export per capita, both synthetic and real values for import per capita show large decrease in year 2009 due to the global financial crisis. The average effect for export is higher than import, therefore, the effect on net exports is positive.
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Figure 33: Comparison of import per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations
7.4.4 Net export per capita
Below graph demonstrates the net exports per capita for the synthetic Slovak Republic and Slovak Republic. The pre-treatment period lacks fit and therefore, the results cannot be interpreted. The synthetic Slovak Republic consists of 0.467 Israel, 0.247 Korea, 0.208 North Macedonia, 0.063 Albania and 0.015 Hong Kong.
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Figure 34: Comparison of net export per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations
7.4.5 Private consumption per capita
The graph for the above-mentioned variable is listed below. The pre-treatment period provides good match. The graph shows positive results of entering the EU on the private consumption per capita. The effect occurred before the actual entry date in 2004. The synthetic Slovakia consists of 0.48 Korea, 0.233 Russia, 0.122 Peru, 0.075 Thailand, 0.07 Uruguay and 0.02 Ukraine.
If Slovakia decided not to enter the EU, in 2017, the private consumption per capita would be lower by 2 803 USD. The average gain from the EU membership for the Slovak private consumption per capita was 1 650 USD. The effects were statistically significant on 10% level only for year 2008. The results are similar to those retrieved for Poland.
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Figure 35: Comparison of private cons. per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations
7.4.6 Government spending per capita
The below graph shows government spending per capita over the studied period. The pre-treatment period match lacks fit, however, follows the same trend as the real government spending values. The synthetic Slovak Republic consists of 0.376 Ukraine, 0.238 Russia, 0.232 Israel and 0.154 Canada.
According to the SCM, without accessing the EU, Slovak government spending per capita in 2017 would be lower by 857 USD. The graph shows overall positive effect of joining the EU on government spending per capita. The estimated average impact from the EU membership on the government spending per capita was 239 USD. The p-values were not significant on 10% level for any of the studied years, therefore the government spending per capita did not experience statistically significant change after the EU membership.
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Figure 36: Comparison of gov. spending per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations
7.4.7 Investment per capita
Lastly, the below graph demonstrates the SCM results for investment per capita. The synthetic Slovak Republic consists of 0.475 Korea, 0.28 Uruguay, 0.137 Thailand, 0.103 North Macedonia and 0.005 Albania.
The pre-treatment period lacks fit and therefore, the results cannot be interpreted.
The graph shows unidentical results for the years after the accession. Furthermore, the retrieved p-values were not significant for any of the treated years.
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Figure 37: Comparison of investment per capita, Slovak Republic
Source: Author’s calculations 7.4.8 Robustness check
Below are listed robustness check graphs for the Slovak GDP per capita and its components. Overall, the lines for robustness check match well those estimated for GDP, export, import and private consumption per capita. Government spending per capita can be considered somehow robust. Nonetheless, the estimates for investment and net export per capita show that results for robustness checks differ from those retrieved for the synthetic analysis and therefore, the result are not robust.
Figure 38: Robustness check, Slovak Republic
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Results
Source: Author’s calculations
Unlike the other V4 countries, Slovakia experienced positive impact by entering the EU on its GDP per capita and its components. GDP per capita increased due to the EU accession, however, the results were not statistically significant on 10% significance level. Furthermore, the main force of the positive effects was export per capita that
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Unlike in the research paper by Campos et al. (2014) that estimated for GDP per capita small negative effect that turned positive in the last treated years, the retrieved results in this thesis were positive, but statistically insignificant, for the whole post-treatment period43. Summing up, none of the GDP components showed negative effect of joining the EU on its values, which makes Slovakia the only country in the sample with only positive results that were, however, mostly statistically insignificant.
According to the European Commission (n.d.), from 2004 until 2017, the Slovak GDP per capita increased by 94%. Furthermore, Molendowski (2015) reports that in the first few years after entering the EU, Slovakia reached the highest GDP per capita growth.
Overall, Slovakia reached high level of GDP growth and managed to catch up with the rest of the V4 countries due to EU membership. On average, the GDP per capita increased in the post-treatment period due to the EU membership by 2 646 USD.
Molendowski (2015) further reports that Poland and Slovakia took the highest advantage from joining the EU. The increase of the GDP per capita was triggered by a large increase of FDI to industries, such as automobile and electronics that also led to decrease of unemployment (Žídek, 2011).
Summing up, by joining the EU, Slovak Republic experienced increase in its GDP per capita and the GDP components. After five years, Slovakia decided to access the eurozone, which attracted foreign investors, thus stimulated even further the foreign capital inflow and increase of the Slovak output level. Summing up, Slovak Republic was successful in the EU accession and reached the highest increase in GDP per capita from the V4 countries. Furthermore, Slovak GDP per capita level converged to the values generated for Czech Republic.