Chapter 5. Conclusion
5.1 Research Findings
5.1.1 Trust Linkage
This study suggests the trust linkage as a supplement to the original framework. Without trust to link economic interdependence and political purposes, China’s economic attractions failed to make the Philippines and Vietnam compromise, regardless of the tension situation.
Main reasons why economic instruments cannot yield the power of persuasion and avoidance of payment were summarized. Without taking trust into account, China could miscalculate the degrees of sensitivity interdependence and vulnerability interdependence in dealing with the Philippines and Vietnam.
For weaker parties, it is preferable to gain economic attractions, but this is insufficient to justify themselves for compromising in territorial disputes. In other words, considering the sensitivity, economic attractions provided by Beijing did not generate the power of persuasion in South China Sea disputes. In the relationship between economic coercion and avoidance of payments, China’s economic coercion did damage the two states’ interests in the short term but did not generate enough influence for the two states to compromise to sovereignty issues.
The threat of a rising China has deep roots in Southeast Asia. With these negative perceptions from historical experiences, it is difficult for Southeast Asian countries to link China’s economic diplomacy with positive intentions. China may create bona fides with the
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Philippines and Vietnam by providing economic attractions; however, China has also had wars with these two countries. In particular, economic instruments are a direct way to affect people’s livelihoods. If the weaker is affected the more, it makes the weaker fear the more.
Therefore, the stronger party should cultivate bilateral relationships by building mutual trust.
By examining South China Sea disputes, this study found that neither economic attractions nor economic coercion generated effects that achieve political purposes, because of a lack of mutual trust.
5.1.2 Symbolic Measures Provides a New Lens for Observation
This study found that China has resumed her economic coercive behaviour and demonstrated that Beijing has accumulated enough confidence to handle sovereignty challenges. With China’s economic power growing rapidly, its neighbouring countries would pay a higher cost if they do not comply with China’s demand. Hence, China is more likely to use symbolic measures more frequently than substantive measures.
In particular, with the assertion of Xi Jinping, China now plays a smart economic game with great strategic significance. Following China’s concept of comprehensive national security, Beijing has proposed several plans of economic development, including an updated version of CAFTA, a “diamond ten years,” the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Eurasian Economic Union; nearly every country hopes to nurture its economy together with burgeoning Chinese opportunities. Clearly, ideas similar to China’s charm offensive may play the dominant role in economic diplomacy and serve as economic instruments in realizing the concept of comprehensive national security.
China’s charm offensive in economic diplomacy demonstrates the transformation of Beijing’s concept of national security. With China’s national power continuing to grow, its political strategy in dealing with territorial disputes changes. Dating back to 28 November 2014, the first time Xi hosted the Central Committee on Foreign Affairs Conference, which is detrimental to China’s peripheral diplomacy reveals China’s new direction. Xi emphasized that during this period of strategic opportunity, China’s is to move from economic cooperation towards economic security. Economic development is crucial for the development of a state; economic construction is the only way to achieve a peaceful rise with low risk. Hence, China should embrace new specialties and trends when the tides of national security change. In addition, China should maintain its goal of comprehensive national
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security. That is, economic integration is China’s bargaining chip in negotiating security and cooperation, and connecting external security issues (Guo, 2015, p. 81).
5.2 Future Research Agenda
This study mainly explores China’s economic power in handling South China Sea disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam in the framework of asymmetrical economic interdependence. Because of time limitations, this study did not cover certain dimensions in the research process. For instance, from the perspective of regional economic integration, the role of the CAFTA and its implications for sensitivities and vulnerability to South China Sea tensions could be another aspect to examine. In addition, this study selected two Chinese economic coercive measures, interference in fishing and oil exploitation, are limited. The effect of other economic coercive measures should not be overlooked
The complexities of South China Sea disputes require multiple research methods to cover the topic comprehensively. This study examined the disputes from the lens of economic security. International politics and defence strategies are other essential perspectives that can be considered in the future. Furthermore, another limitation of this study is that it neglects to discuss other economic powers, such as Japan and the United States. Their aid and funds may generate a trade-off effect to China’s.
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