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9. Chapter 9 - Implications for Cross-Strait relations
The existence of the Sunflower's political generation, poses different challenges to Cross-Strait relations.
In the short-term, the Sunflower's political generation has demonstrated that they will be the watchdogs of the government. This research demonstrated that it had the power, at least, to slow down any movement made by the government towards a closer relation with mainland China. It is true that it looks like the Ma administration still intends to pass the CSSTA in its original format200. However, the Sunflower's political generation will be watching. A clear example is the last 9-1 elections, in which the KMT lost in most of the cities of Taiwan. This was clearly linked with the influence of the young people who demonstrated their rejection of Ma's mainland policies and subsequently moved to punish his administration.
One of the clear successes of the Sunflower's political generation was that it awoke the civil society and social movements. The civil society can play a fundamental role in the future development of Cross-Strait relations because it can push the government to move in any direction desired by the Taiwanese. It can also act as a counterbalance in the sense of Two-Levels theory coined by Putnam201. If the Taiwanese government at any point has to deal with the mainland China government, it will have to be careful, because behind, the domestic opinion will be watching.
In 2016, Taiwan will hold its presidential elections, which ultimately will change or maintain the course of Cross-Strait relations. Looking back at the past 9-1 elections of 2014. It is possible that the Sunflower's political generation will be again one of the deciding factors that will contribute to the outcome. According to the in-depth interviews there seems to be a big anti-KMT sentiment among the young, conversely, most of them support the DPP or Pan-Green parties. However, the quantitative data (TEDS 2014) suggests that the KMT is still alive. Therefore, if the Sunflower's political
200J. Michael, Cole, "Was Taiwan's Sunflower Movement successful?" The Diplomat, July 1,
2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/was-taiwans-sunflower-movement-successful/
201 Robert Putman, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games", International Organization 42, no.3, (1988): 427- 460.
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generation wants to make "the KMT collapse" as some pointed out. They will have to discuss and will have to convince the supporters of the KMT that according to their understanding, there are other political parties that can also help Taiwan.
Another, feature of the Sunflower's political generation is their support to small political parties. Perhaps, the 2016 elections will be the rise of some small parties. However, it is difficult to predict which parties are going to achieve good results and whether or not it will have a real impact on the political landscape. In addition, the emergence of the Sunflower's political generation and its demands of social justice, it might inject to the 2016's presidential elections a more traditional cleavage such as "class". Therefore, the success of the parties running for the elections will be resultant of their ability to accommodate the demands of the youth.
In the long term, there are more doubts about the possible impact of the Sunflower's political generation.
According to the in-depth interviews, they clearly support the independence of Taiwan, however, according to the quantitative data provided by TEDS 2015, the independence is not supported by the majority of Taiwanese society. If the Sunflower's political generation desires to push towards independence through participating in future elections or demonstrating in the streets, the Sunflower's political generation will have to initiate a dialogue with the other agents of society to convince them that Taiwan can be a independent state recognised by the international community. However, they also know that on the other side of the Strait, China is watching every movement, not only of the Taiwanese government but also of civil society. One student said that China was shaken after the Sunflower Movement, the PRC's government did not expect the emergence of this new generation. Beijing’s leadership was apparently shocked by Taiwan’s anti-China protests in the Sunflower Movement and a mass rally in Taipei on March 30, which attracted more than half million protesters. In order to understand what was really going on in Taiwan, President Xi invited Dr James Soong, chairman of
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Taiwan's People First Party and former governor of Taiwan under KMT government in the 1990's to visit Beijing on May 7202.
Indeed, the PRC is not going to support any independent movement, and that poses a clear challenge for the Sunflower's political generation. However, against all the conventional wisdom that points out that Taiwan's future depends only on China, the young generation, know that the PRC's government is a wall that prevents Taiwan from becoming independent, however, they seem to have found some breaches on the "Great Wall". The Sunflower's political generation profoundly believes in democracy as well as holds democratic values. If the interlocutors are PRC's government vs young Taiwanese, PRC's government vs ROC government, or PRC's government vs Taiwanese civil society, they are bound to be insurmountable barriers resultant of their differing belief systems and values. However, the Sunflower's political generation believes that the real interlocutor of China might be with the young generations of Chinese; according to one of the students interviewed, "they want democracy as we want". Some students do not perceive young Chinese as enemies. In fact, some of them believe that the dialogue between young Taiwanese and young Chinese can provide an ideal opportunity to open a new path for Cross-Strait relations, in which the mutual understanding might not depend on the differences resulting of the Cold War or the Chinese Civil war, but in differences that might be solved under the umbrella of shared democratic values.
Nevertheless, the scenario in which the dialogue between the Taiwan strait can be led by the two young generations, seems to have an important hurdle. Time. It is difficult to know how long the PRC's government is willing to wait. If China pushes the unification of Taiwan, that will jeopardise the desire of those supporters of independence. This in itself will pose another challenge for China, the Sunflower's political generation cannot relate to China, they dislike the PRC's political regime and its government. This in turn can trigger tensions with implications of an unforeseeable magnitude.
Alternatively, if by the time the Sunflower's political generation become the political elite, Taiwan is still independent. We can expect to see policies favouring Taiwan's
202 Parris H, Chang, "Beijing's Unification Strategy Toward Taiwan and Cross-Strait Relations", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 26, no.3 (2014): 311.
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independence or options in which Taiwan will keep high levels of autonomy from the future politicians. This however does not necessarily mean war. It seems clear that none of the sides involved is interested in war, and this should especially be true after having developed closer economic ties.
Some analysts think that Taiwan's future only depends on China, however, the generational differences among new generations can change the course of Cross-Strait relations, leading them, to scenarios that haven't been fully explored. What is true is that the Sunflower's political generation will be one of the agents that contribute to the future of Cross-Strait relations.
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111 10. Chapter 10: Conclusion
The main goal of this thesis was to answer different questions regarding the Sunflower Movement, the Sunflower Political generation and Cross-Strait relations and to compare the Sunflower's political generation with the 4th political generation.
Having completed this research, it seems clear that the Sunflower movement was a turning point in the history of Taiwan, being a catalyst for a new political generation.
Everyone who was interviewed pointed out how the Sunflower Movement changed everything. The Sunflower Movement was a historical event that was the ending of one political generation and the birth of a new one.
When analysing the political values and attitudes towards Cross Strait relations held by the Sunflower's political generation, it is clear, that they are different from those held by the 4th political generation. Among the eight political values and attitudes studied, the majority highlight at least some differences between the two generational groups, and on many occasions can be categorised as being at opposite ends of the scale from one another. It is clear that amongst both generations there is a sense of homogeneity regarding their political values and attitudes towards Cross-Strait relations. It is these clear cut yet often opposing perspectives that clearly demonstrates that they are different political generations.
The Sunflower's political generation, is indeed, a product of the Sunflower Movement, most of the students who were interviewed pointed out that the Sunflower Movement changed everything, for them, the student movement was a turning point in their lives, there was a before and after. One said NCCU student "it changed the whole generation and the future of Taiwan. If the Sunflower Movement wouldn't have existed, the people would never have awoken. After the Sunflower Movement, people had new ideas"203
When discussing the main features of the Sunflower's political generation, 6 can be found. They have a sole "Taiwanese" identity, they favour the independence of Taiwan, despite some still hope to maintain the status quo. They support Pan- Green parties and dislike the Chinese government, they have strong democratic values such as justice and
203 Interview 13. See Appendix.
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equality and they are more political engaged than their predecessors. It is not a coincidence that all these values form a high level of nationalist complex, therefore, as a consequence of having these values, if they become the political elites of Taiwan, their attitudes will not be as pragmatic as the 4th generation but more oriented to favour Taiwan.
However, instead of mythologising the Sunflower's political generation and its success, it is important to demonstrate that there are limitations to its capabilities and evidence to suggest that the Sunflower's political generation is not as big as originally hypothesised.
Firstly, some of the students mentioned that they had friends who did not care about politics. According to TEDS 2014, there is still a 31.9% of people from 20 to 29 years old who are not interested in politics. One NCCU student said that she seldom discussed politics with her friends, as she said "because in Taiwan's culture, some people are not aware of politics, if you discuss politics with some people, some will think "oh, you are boring", so most of the time, I won't discuss politics with my friends" 204. Secondly, despite the existing anti-KMT sentiment among the students, the KMT maintains support from 26% of the people between 20 and 29. This evidences a second group outside of the Sunflower Movement. This is relevant as even though some people perceive themselves as Taiwanese, they will still vote a political party that favours closer relations with China.
These factors demonstrate the existence of a sector of young people who did not go to the Sunflower Movement, and possibly, don't share the same political beliefs as them.
This means that not all young Taiwanese belong to the Sunflower's political generation.
It can therefore be concluded that not all the members of the youth experienced the emergence of the Sunflower Movement in the same way. This proves the existence of at least, two generational units: Those who belong to the Sunflower's political generation, and those who don't. A relevant area for further exploration is to investigate how big the Sunflower's political generation is? So far this research has provided evidence to suggest that although the Sunflower political generation does not stretch across the entire youth of Taiwan, it is however big enough to influence domestic politics in
204 Interview 18. See appendix.
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Taiwan. This is evidenced primarily in the outcome of 9-1 elections and some social movements after the Sunflower movement.
It is also important to mention that this thesis only interviewed 21 people. Despite most of the students showed to have similar political values and attitudes and proved a correlation between the discourse of Sunflower Movement and their political ideas , it is worth mentioning that they do not represent all Taiwanese young people.
When comparing the 4th political generation with the Sunflower's political generation, it is evidenced that they differ in almost every aspect studied. However, it is true that at the moment, both political generations are co-existing in Taiwanese society. Both political generations have the ability to influence one another.
Can the Sunflower political generation convince the 4th political generation to be more politically engaged? The emergence of the Sunflower political generation, not only opens a dialogue between the power and the youth but also, a dialogue between existing political generations. If the Sunflower's political generation desires to seek more political power, it should initiate dialogue with the other political generations. This idea is fascinating, and it opens more paths to future research on the possible impact of the Sunflower's political generation on the other political generations. This political generation has brought out new ideas and problems that need to be addressed. Does the independence of Taiwan depend on the ability of the Sunflower's political generation to convince the people who support the status quo?
In one interview, one student said that students went to protest because they have imagination. What is true is that the Sunflower's political generation is able and willing to inject imagination to solve the problems that Taiwanese society is facing. It is possible that the conflict between China and Taiwan is not going to be solved with the traditional discourses and old politics but with imagination. War? No. Imagination. Yes, and the youth have a great deal of that.
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114 Bibliography
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