With the rise of Chinese economic capability and regional influence and the US is diverted to issues in the Middle East, Sino-U.S. relationship also has entered a new era. The new Sino-U.S. relationship is one of confrontation, cooperation and
engagement on three levels: the international, the East Asian regional, and the bilateral. The international structure is based on two major international security issues that now dominate the international strategic relationship between these two major powers. These two issues are cooperation in counter-terrorism and
confrontation over proliferation of WMD. In regional level, cooperation in solving North Korean nuclear issue has provided Washington and Beijing with opportunity to work together on regional crisis management.
In terms of bilateral relationship, economic and trade relationships have become major issues between these two major powers. In September 2005, Robert Zoellick,
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, stated that "it is time to take our policy beyond opening doors to China's membership into the international system: We need to urge China to become a responsible stakeholder in that system."32 This new Bush policy toward China,“aresponsiblestakeholder”oraresponsiblemajorworld citizen,asks China to be more mature and supportive of the international system and norms. This means China has to not only comply with international law but also more actively support international responsibilities and the U.S. policies. In other words, China should not hinder UN Security Council action on Iran and should exert its influence over North Korea to entice the latter to accept denuclearization. China should also assume responsibility for reassuring other Asian countries, including Taiwan, of its military buildup and security posture.
The United States is thus seeking a cooperative relationship with China and wants to encourage constructive action of Beijing, including democratic reforms. If China can indeed rise to be a responsible stakeholder, it will be more likely to become a status quo country, which will favor solving its disputes with other countries through peaceful means. Beijing has demonstrated its capability to negotiate with neighbor countries, such as Russia and India, in resolving chronic border disputes, but to what extend does Beijing acceptanegotiating approach to solvethe“Taiwan question”
remains unknown. Nevertheless, it seems that while enhancing its defense capabilities as part of a hedge, Washington has made extra efforts to assure that a "stronger China"
will also be a peaceful power.
However, on the other hand, there is a growing concern in Washington that China is accumulating power, both economic and military, to make China the dominant power of East Asia. This sort of development may not only lead to regional instability but also might challenge the role of position of the United States in the region.
In termsoftheimpactsofChina’sriseon cross-strait relations, China’ssurging economy and newfound political clout expand its tool box in handling cross-strait relations and complicate U.S. role in dealing with the cross-strait political and military stalemate. With its missile deployments directed at Taiwan and the adoption of an anti-secession law threatening theuseofforceto deterTaiwan’spursuance of
de jure
independence,China’scoercivecross-strait policy could severely challenge the island and itsmostimportantally,theUnited States.However,China’srising economic32 Robert B. Zoellick,“WhitherChina:From Membership to Responsibility?”Remarks to National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, September 21, 2005.
power and political status in the region have also been translated into a growing pool of“soft”power,affording Beijing increasing leverageon cross-strait issues.
Fivemajorareascan beidentified astheimmediateimpactsofChina’sriseon cross-strait relations: 1. continuing increase of cross-strait economic interdependence;
2. shrinking room forTaiwan’saspiration forindependence;3.gradualshifting of cross-strait military balance; 4. further isolation (marginalization) of Taiwan in regional organizations; and 5. increasing cooperation between Beijing and Washington on the management of the Taiwan issue.
From China's perspective, the Taiwan issue is a matter of sovereignty and territorial integrity, but how would Beijing deter Taiwan independence without alienating the increasingly assertive Taiwanese from the mainland? Even though leaders in Beijing have learned from past experiences that overt saber-rattling would only push Taiwanese people further apart from the unification, threat of force is still thecornerstoneofBeijing’spolicy toward Taiwan.
The enactment of the Anti-Secession Law on March 4, 2005 was regarded as Beijing’seffortto demonstrateitsdetermination to deterTaiwan independence through legal and physiological measures. The law enlists three scenarios as preconditionsfortheuseof“non-peacefulmeans” against Taiwan: efforts taken by the separatists to split Taiwan from China under whatever means or by whatever names; any major incidents that could lead Taiwan towards splitting from China; and the possibility of peaceful unification is entirely exhausted.
In recent years, China's defense capability has improved significantly, thanks to a strong rise in defense expenditure accompanying its economic growth. Between 2000 and 2005, China's official defense spending doubled to $29.6 billion, allowing the military to spend on weapons procurement and upgrading, troops training and communication, computer and intelligence improvement. The focus of cross-strait military balance has shifted from quantity to quality in the past few years. With the PLA’saggressivemodernization program, the military strength of China is likely to surpass that of Taiwan in the coming years if Taiwan could not acquire enough advanced defensive weapons in time.
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