CONSEQUENCES OF DIFFERENTIATED COMMITMENTS ON U.S. SECURITY The consequences of these differentiated commitments are best viewed by looking at the

three top priorities of the United States: physical security, economic security, and promoting democracy.

249 Daniel M. Kliman, Japan’s Security Strategy in the Post-9/11 World: Embracing a New Realpolitik (Westport: Praeger Publishers, 2006), 150.

Physical Security

The importance of Japan over the Philippines is most visible with respect to the primary vital interest of the United States: physical security. As one analyst put it, if the treaty with Japan were abrogated, Japan could fill the security vacuum in one of three ways: go nuclear, establish a regional security arrangement without the United States, or push for Japan’s security to be the responsibility of a permanent U.N. force.²⁵⁰ The first two options would be highly negative outcomes for the United States and the third appears very unlikely. In addition, the United States would also lose access to the bases that allow it to project force in a very competitive and possibly unstable area, an area that is potentially dangerous to the vital physical security interests of the United States. Furthermore, Japan is viewed as a more reliable partner of the United States and helps it to maintain influence in the Pacific through its economic strength and world-class defense force. As one analyst questioned, why would the United States do anything that would put in jeopardy its alliance with this “wealthy, mature and loyal friend.”²⁵¹ The military discrepancy between Japan and the Philippines, which shapes U.S. interests, can also easily be seen in the number of armaments bought by both nations from the United States since 1950.

During this time period, the Philippines received over $1.408 billion USD in foreign military sales. During the same time period Japan received $15.068 billion USD. In 2011, the Philippines only received approximately $27 million USD in sales and Japan received over $452 million USD in sales. This is just military equipment deliveries and does not take into account other assistance or training.²⁵² However, the discrepancy between both allies is telling in illustrating that Japan is more important to protecting the physical security interests of the United States.

250 Okamoto, 72.

251 Ibid.

252 Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Historical Facts Book.

Despite these disadvantages, this does not mean that the Philippines is irrelevant to vital U.S. interests. For instance, although not studied in detail in this thesis, geographically the Philippines is important too. The islands are a gateway between North and Southeast Asia. It is also a frontline that protects U.S. dependencies like Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa; associated states like the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau; and even the State of Hawaii. In addition, as noted by many commentators and the U.S. military “…the central location and topography of Subic make it perhaps the most strategic deep-water port in Southeast Asia.”²⁵³ In fact, after the announcement of the closure of the bases in the Philippines in 1991, one academic at the time noted, “Without the bases in the Philippines, I don't think there is any question that U.S.

influence in Asia will decline.”²⁵⁴ Yet, as discussed, this geographic importance or ability to provide a way to project force does not equal the vital nature of Japan in United States defense policy. Furthermore, as shown in this thesis, the relative cost to the United States to defend these interests in the Philippines in relation to the benefits associated with U.S. interests in the area is also very high. Since the United States has other options such as working through tacit alliances and cultivating multilateral efforts in Southeast Asia, its dependence on the Philippines is just not as large, especially when compared with Japan.

Economic Security

For the United States, the vital and important economic interests involved with both nations’ disputes are considerable as well. Economically, there are a lot of reasons for the United States to favor Japan over the Philippines in its defense posture. Most notably, Japan is the world’s third largest economy. However Japan also sits as a gateway to Korea and China, is a                                                                                                                

253 Thomas Fuller, “Subic Bay May Be Up for Rent,” New York Times, July 13, 2001, http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/13/news/13iht-phil_ed3__1.html.

254 Sanger.

technological partner, and provides funding for stationing American troops in its country (instead of asking for payment). Overall it currently contributes more to defending the vital economic interests of the United States than the Philippines. Of course, if the interests were narrowed down to just the disputed islands and their immediate surrounding area, the South China Sea could be considered more of an economic draw due to the important trade routes through the SCS. Yet, as shown, the United States has many possible partners to help access these resources and routes in relation to the Philippines, an option it does not have with the areas around Japan.

Democracy Promotion (and Ideological Dissonance)

Finally, in relation to the last important interest of the United States (democracy promotion) the dissonance between the countries, while not large, is still a source of differentiation in implementing policy related to the security treaties. There are also a lot of internal ideological inconsistencies in both relationships that might look positive in the short-term, but could prove disastrous to the long-term interests of the United States. For instance, Japanese nationalists’ fervent embrace of closer ties to the United States is indicative of these contradictions.²⁵⁵ So too is the recent embrace in the Philippines for more U.S. involvement, only a few years removed from closing down the American military bases.

In the Philippines, the United States worries about its image when working with Filipino forces, selling arms, or even signing agreements for basing rights. Corruption is high and the populace, although generally supportive of the United States and democratic ideals, has mixed feelings towards the former colonial presence in the country. For these reasons, as long as internal security is an issue and a large focus in the Philippines, cooperation with the United States will be more difficult. Furthermore, while increased cooperation in counterterrorism served to enhance overall military relations between Filipinos and Americans in the recent past,                                                                                                                

255 Fujiwara and Nagano, America’s Informal Empires, 109.

the current public popularity of the United States in the Philippines is more closely aligned with the negative perception of China. Finally, the United States public, after working in Afghanistan and Iraq for more than a decade, is weary of wars involving tribal identities and politics that it simply does not understand. So if the peace process with the Muslim south continues and the Filipino military moves away from these conflicts towards a more external defense mindset, cooperation will improve and the influence of the Philippines in U.S. policy will rise. If not, cooperation will continue to be hindered.

Japan does not have the internal governance problems or internal corruption issues that beset the United States’ relationship with the Philippines, but there are still ideological frictions with the United States. The lack of recognition in some Japanese political circles concerning the historical atrocities committed by their predecessors is one area that might detour relations. If Japan takes these feelings to an extreme, it will isolate not only Japan but also the United States, its main sponsor. What is interesting is that with Japan the United States often sees its role as requiring more cooperation rather than less, in order to moderate some of the excesses of this very important partner. This greater involvement in Japan is even more remarkable when viewed in contrast to the role internal Filipino policies play in hindering bilateral relations.