Friday • January 5
HERO/AEA
Eight Years Later: Analyses of ACA Health Insurance Markets (I1)
Presiding: DONALD YETT, University of Southern California
TIMOTHY LAYTON, Harvard University, MICHAEL GERUSO, University of Texas-Austin, and DANIEL PRINZ, Harvard University—
Screening in Contract Design: Evidence From the ACA Health Insurance Exchanges
VILSA CURTO, Harvard University, and MONICA BHOLE, Stanford University—Early ACA Medicaid Expansions: Impacts on Enrollment and Access
ADITI SEN, Johns Hopkins University, and THOMAS DELEIRE, Georgetown University—Consumer Choice and Learning in Private Insurance Markets: Evidence From the ACA Marketplaces
Discussants: JONATHAN GRUBER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SARAH MILLER, University of Michigan
MICHAEL CHERNEW, Harvard University
Friday • January 5
10:15 am Loews Philadelphia—Adams IBEFA
Monetary Policy and Credit Markets (G2) Presiding: ALISTAIR MILNE, Loughborough University
CHRISTOPH BERTSCH, Sveriges Riksbank, ISAIAH HULL, Sveriges Riksbank, and XIN ZHANG, Sveriges Riksbank—Monetary Normalizations and Consumer Credit: Evidence From Fed Liftoff and Online Lending
RICARDO CORREA, Federal Reserve Board, TEODORA PALIGOROVA, Federal Reserve Board, HORACIO SAPRIZA, Federal Reserve Board, and ANDREI ZLATE, Federa Reserve Bank of Boston—
Cross-border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy
MANUEL BUCHHOLZ, Deutsche Bundesbank, KIRSTEN SCHMIDT, Halle Institute for Economic Research, and LENA TONZER, Halle Institute for Economic Research—Do Conventional Monetary Policy Instruments Matter in Unconventional Times?
SRIYA L. ANBIL, Federal Reserve Board, and ZEYNEP SENYUZ, Federal Reserve Board—Window-dressing and Trading Relationships in the Tri-party Repo Market
Discussants: JOHN DRISCOLL, Federal Reserve Board WILKO BOLT, Central Bank of the Netherlands JUDIT TEMESVARY, Federal Reserve Board
CHRISTOFFER KOCH, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10:15 am Loews Philadelphia—Lescaze IEFS
The Economics of International Trade Agreements (F1) Presiding: KAMAL SAGGI, Vanderbilt University
ROBERT W. STAIGER, Dartmouth College, and ALAN O. SYKES, Stanford University—The Economic Structure of International Trade in Services Agreement
ERIC W. BOND, Vanderbilt University, and ROBERT A. DRISKILL, Vanderbilt University—DCBFTs and Trade
10:15 FRI
Friday • January 5
134
KAMAL SAGGI, Vanderbilt University, WOAN FOONG WONG, University of Oregon, and HARIS MURAT YILDIZ, Ryerson University—Preferential Trade Agreements and Rules of the Multilateral Trading System
MATTHEW T. COLE, California Polytechnic State University, JAMES LAKE, Southern Methodist University, and BEN ZISSIMOS, University of Exeter—Contesting an International Trade Agreement
10:15 am Pennsylvania Convention Center—203-A IOS
Competition in Digital Buyer-supplier platforms (L1) Presiding: JUDITH A. CHEVALIER, Yale University
HALDUN ANIL, Smart Asset, and SARA FISHER ELLISON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and CESifo—Ride-sharing’s Ascendancy and the Roles of Technological Superiority and Regulatory Avoidance
CHIARA FARRONATO, Harvard Business School, and ANDREY FRADKIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Airbnb Inc.—
Market Structure with the Entry of Peer-to-Peer Platforms: The Case of Hotels and Airbnb
JOHN J. HORTON, New York University, and BO COWGILL, Columbia University—A Mariel Boatlift for Programmers?: The Russian Online Labor Market Response to the Collapse of the Ruble
THOMAS C. BLAKE, eBay, and SARAH MOSHARY, University of Pennsylvania—Price Salience and Product Choice
Discussants: TOBIAS SALZ, Columbia University KEVIN WILLIAMS, Yale University
JENNIFER BROWN, University of British Columbia and University of Utah
AVI GOLDFARB, University of Toronto
Friday • January 5
10:15 am Loews Philadelphia—Parlor 2 ISIR
Aggregate Shocks and Investment Dynamics: Lessons From the Micro Data (E2)
Presiding: FELIPE SCHWARTZMAN, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond JOSE MARIA BARRERO, Stanford University, NICHOLAS BLOOM, Stanford University, and IAN WRIGHT, Goldman Sachs—Short and Long Run Uncertainty
NICOLAS CROUZET, Northwestern University, and NEIL MEHROTRA, Brown University—Small and Large Firms Over the Business Cycle
JOSEPH VAVRA, University of Chicago—Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
ERIC ZWICK, University of Chicago, and QIPING XU, University of Notre Dame—Kinky Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior Discussant: THOMAS WINBERRY, University of Chicago
10:15 am Loews Philadelphia—Parlor 1 ITFA
European Integration: New Challenges and New Hopes (E6) Presiding: THIERRY WARIN, HEC Montreal
ALAN DEARDORFF, University of Michigan—Sensitive Sectors in EU Trade Agreements
CHRISTOPHER HOUSE, University of Michigan, CHRISTIAN PROEBSTING, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology-Lausanne, LINDA L. TESAR, University of Michigan, and JING ZHANG, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago—Fiscal Trade-offs in Open Economies MICHAEL DEVEREUX, University of British Columbia—Fiscal Spillovers Within the European Union
ALEKSANDAR STOJKOV, Saints Cyril and Methodius University of Skopje-Macedonia, and THIERRY WARIN, HEC Montreal—FDI Flows in Europe: Endogeneity and Credibility
10:15 FRI
Friday • January 5
136
Discussants: ALEKSANDAR STOJKOV, Saints Cyril and Methodius University of Skopje-Macedonia
DAVIDE ROMELLI, Trinity College Dublin LINDA L. TESAR, University of Michigan ALAN DEARDORFF, University of Michigan
10:15 am Pennsylvania Convention Center—202-A LERA/AEA
$15 Minimum Wage Policies: Early Evidence (J3) Presiding: ALAN KRUEGER, Princeton University
EDWARD E. LEAMER, University of California-Los Angeles, JERRY NICKELSBURG, University of California-Los Angeles, TILL M. VON WACHTER, University of California-Los Angeles, and FREDERIC ZIMMERMAN, University of California-Los Angeles—
Assessing the Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases in Labor Market Areas in California
SYLVIA A. ALLEGRETTO, University of California-Berkeley, ANNA GODOY, University of California-Berkeley, and MICHAEL REICH, University of California-Berkeley—The New Higher Minimum Wages:
Effects in Seven Cities
MARK C. LONG, University of Washington, ROBERT PLOTNICK, University of Washington, EKATERINA JARDIM, University of Washington, JACOB VIGDOR, University of Washington, and HILARY WETHING, University of Washington—Measuring Minimum Wage Effects on the Entire Low-wage Job Market: Evidence From Seattle Discussants: JEFFREY PAUL CLEMENS, University of California-San Diego
LAURA GIULIANO, University of Miami BEN ZIPPERER, Economic Policy Institute
10:15 am Pennsylvania Convention Center—202-B LERA
New Evidence on the Prevalence and Implications of Contract Work (J0)
Presiding: SUSAN HOUSEMAN, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Friday • January 5
KATHARINE ABRAHAM, University of Maryland, JOHN HALTIWANGER, University of Maryland, KRISTIN SANDUSKY, U.S. Census Bureau, and JAMES R. SPLETZER, U.S. Census Bureau—
Is the Gig Economy Growing? Divergent Trends in Alternative Self-employment Series
EMILIE JACKSON, U.S. Treasury Department, ADAM LOONEY, U.S. Treasury Department, and SHANTHI RAMNATH, U.S. Treasury Department—The Rise of Alternative Work Arrangements: Evidence and Implications for Tax Filing and Benefit Coverage
DAVID DORN, University of Zurich, JOHANNES F. SCHMIEDER, Boston University, and JAMES R. SPLETZER, U.S. Census Bureau—
Domestic Outsourcing of Labor Services in the United States: 1996–2015 Discussants: ARINDRAJIT DUBE, University of Massachusetts-Amherst
ALEXANDRE MAS, Princeton University BARBARA ROBLES, Federal Reserve Board
10:15 am Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Grand Ballroom Salon A
NABE
Panel: The United States and Global Economic Outlook (E6) Presiding: KEVIN L. KLIESEN, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
JULIA CORONADO, Macropolicy Perspectives, LLC
JASON FURMAN, Peterson Institute for International Economics PATRICK T. HARKER, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia PETER PRAET, European Central Bank
PAUL M. ROMER, World Bank
10:15 am Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Meeting Room 309 NEA
The Economic Case or Health Equity (I1)
Presiding: SAMUEL L. MYERS, University of Minnesota
JOSEPH BENITEZ, University of Louisville, VICTORIA PEREZ, Indiana University, and ERIC SEIBER, Ohio State University—
Medicaid, Access to Care and Times of Economic Downturn
10:15 FRI
Friday • January 5
138
HUDA AHMED, University of Minnesota, MICHELLE ALLEN, University of Minnesota, THOMAS DURFEE, University of Minnesota, DARRICK HAMILTON, New School, and KATERINA KENT, University of Minnesota—The Economic Case for Health Equity in Minnesota
DARRELL GASKIN, Johns Hopkins University, THOMAS LAVEIST, Johns Hopkins University, and PATRICK RICHARD, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences—Estimating the Economic Burden of Racial Health Inequalities in the United States
Discussants: JOSEPH BENITEZ, University of Louisville THOMAS DURFEE, University of Minnesota DARRELL GASKIN, Johns Hopkins University
10:15 am Pennsylvania Convention Center—106-A SGE
Policy and Distributional Impacts (J0)
Presiding: DEIRDRE NANSEN MCCLOSKEY, University of Illinois-Chicago
JONATHAN A. LANNING, U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau—Prejudice in Discretionary Market Transactions: The Case of Markup Disparity in Indirect Auto Lending
PO-CHUN HUANG, National Chengchi University, and TZU-TING YANG, Academia Sinica—An Evaluation of Optimal Unemployment Insurance Using Two Natural Experiments
SAMUEL TSENG, U.S. Department of Labor—The Influence of Pre-existing Conditions on the Risk of Long-term Care Use
DANIELLE H. SANDLER, U.S. Census Bureau, YOONKYUNG CHUNG, Robert Graham Center, BARBARA DOWNS, U.S. Census Bureau, and ROBERT SIENKIEWICZ, U.S. Census Bureau—The Parental Gender Earnings Gap in the United States
Discussants: ROBERT ADAMS, Federal Reserve Board ANDREW SHEPHARD, University of Pennsylvania AMI KO, Georgetown University
WENHUA DI, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Friday • January 5
10:15 am Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Meeting Room 308 TPUG/AEA
Topics in Energy Issues (H0)
Presiding: IAN LANGE, Colorado School of Mines
CHARLES F. MASON, University of Wyoming—Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail
DALLAS BURTRAW, Resources for the Future, KAREN PALMER, Resources for the Future, ANTHONY PAUL, Resources for the Future, CHARLIE HOLT, University of Virginia, and WILLIAM SHOBE, University of Virginia—Emissions Containment in Response to Carbon Market Prices
SZILARD BENK, National Bank of Hungary, and MAX GILLMAN, University of Missouri-St. Louis—Granger Causality of Real Oil Prices After the Great Recession
T. J. RAKITAN, Iowa State University—Assessing the External Net Benefits of Wind Energy: The Case of Iowa’s Wind Farms
Discussants: RICHARD MELSTROM, Loyola University Chicago LORI BENNEAR, Duke University
JONATHAN LEE, East Carolina University
MATTHEW WINDEN, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
10:15 am Loews Philadelphia—Congress B URPE
Empirical and Theoretical Developments in Marxian Political Economy (B1)
Presiding: USHA PRADHAN, University of Missouri-Kansas City
DAVID BRENNAN, Franklin & Marshall College—Regimes of Realization: Using Marx and Kalecki to Empirically Understand the United States Economy Including the Great Recession and the
“Recovery”
DANIEL URBAN, University of Missouri-Kansas City—The Construction of Production: Locating the Production Boundary in Conventional and Marxian Aggregates
RICCARDO BELLOFIORE, University of Bergamo—Karl Marx’s
“Critique of Political Economy”
10:15 FRI
Friday • January 5
140
SCOTT CARTER, University of Tulsa—Marxian Value Categories in Sraffa’s Unpublished Papers: Evidence From the Early 1940s
Discussants: ERIK OLSEN, University of Missouri-Kansas City AHMET TONAK, University of Massachusetts-Amherst ERDOGAN BAKIR, Bucknell University
FRED MOSELEY, Mount Holyoke College
10:15 am Loews Philadelphia—Congress A URPE
Topics in Economic Development: Explorations and Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (O1)
Presiding: LYNDA PICKBOURN, Hampshire College
SMITA RAMNARAIN, University of Rhode Island, and SMRITI RAO, Assumption College—Regional Disparities in Women’s Participation in the NREGS, India
JENNIFER COHEN, Miami University—The Unlimited Demand for Care: A Resource Model
THERESA MANNAH-BLANKSON, Messiah College—Implications of Microfinance Debt Burden for Household Welfare: Lessons From Ghana
BERNA DOGAN, University of Massachusetts-Amherst—The Role of Women’s Empowerment in Child Malnutrition: Evidence From Tanzania DIDIER WAYORO, University of Massachusetts-Amherst—Impact of Armed Conflicts on Child Welfare in Côte d’Ivoire
Discussants: SMITA RAMNARAIN, University of Rhode Island JENNIFER COHEN, Miami University
THERESA MANNAH-BLANKSON, Messiah College BERNA DOGAN, University of Massachusetts-Amherst DIDIER WAYORO, University of Massachusetts-Amherst
Friday • January 5
12:30 pm Loews Philadelphia—PSFS AAEA
Tax Reform and United States Farm Income (G0)
Presiding: JEFFREY HOPKINS, USDA Economic Research Service
JAMES WILLIAMSON, USDA Economic Research Service, and SIRAJ BAWA, USDA Economic Research Service—The Impact of Proposed Tax Reform on Farm Businesses and Households
DAN PRAGER, USDA Economic Research Service, SARAH TULMAN, USDA Economic Research Service, and RON DURST, USDA Economic Research Service—Assessing the Returns to Farming for United States Farm Households
JAYSON BECKMAN, USDA Economic Research Service, MARINOS TSIGAS, U.S. International Trade Commission, and MUNISAMY GOPINATH, USDA Economic Research Service—Production and Trade Impacts of Tax Reform
Discussant: DANIEL SUMNER, University of California-Davis
12:30 pm Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
AEA/AFA
Joint Luncheon—Fee Event
Presiding: DAVID SCHARFSTEIN, Harvard Business School
RAGHURAM RAJAN, University of Chicago—Liquidity and Leverage
12:30 pm Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Grand Ballroom Salon B
AEA
European Economic Association Lecture
Presiding: EMMANUEL FARHI, Harvard University—The Microeconomic Foundations of Aggregate Production Functions
12:30 FRI
Friday • January 5
142
12:30 pm Loews Philadelphia—Washington B AREUEA
Behavioral Real Estate (D2)
Presiding: MICHAEL SEILER, College of William and Mary
PAUL ANGLIN, University of Guelph, XIAOYING DENG, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, YANMIN GAO, City University of Hong Kong, and HUA SUN, Iowa State University—How Do the CEO Political Leanings Affect REIT Business Decisions?
MAGGIE HU, Chinese University of Hong Kong, and ADRIAN LEE, University of Technology Sydney—Outshine to Outbid: Weather-induced Sentiments on Housing Market
JAMES CONKLIN, University of Georgia, MOUSSA DIOP, University of Wisconsin, and HERMAN LI, California State University-Sacramento—Contact High: The External Effects of Retail Marijuana Establishments on House Prices
RAFAEL RIBAS, University of Amsterdam, and ERASMO GIAMBONA, Syracuse University—Prostitution and House Values:
Evidence From Downsizing Red Light Districts in the Netherlands Discussants: WILLIAM HARDIN, Florida International University
THOMAS DAVIDOFF, University of British Columbia ERIK JOHNSON, University of Richmond
PIET EICHHOLTZ, Maastricht University
12:30 pm Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Meeting Room 403 CS
Topics in Macro and Monetary History (N1)
Presiding: MICHAEL HAUPERT, University of Wisconsin-La Crosse HOWARD BODENHORN, Clemson University—Silverback Bankers:
Bank Officer Tenures and Bank Behaviors Across Two Centuries ALEXANDER J. FIELD, Santa Clara University—The Impact of World War II on the Growth of United States Potential Output
ROGER VICQUERY, London School of Economics—Optimum Currency Areas and European Monetary Integration: Evidence From the Italian and German Unific
Friday • January 5
Discussants: MICHAEL BORDO, Rutgers University STEVEN NAFZIGER, Williams College LARRY NEAL, University of Illinois
12:30 pm Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Meeting Room 405 HES
Economic Knowledge in Socialism (B2)
Presiding: GÉRARD ROLAND, University of California-Berkeley
IVAN BOLDYREV, University of Bochum, and TILL DÜPPE, University of Quebec-Montreal—Economic Knowledge in Socialism:
Forms, Integration, Isolation
JOACHIM ZWEYNERT, University of Witten Herdecke—
Shestidesyatniki Economics, the Idea of Convergence, and Perestroika RICHARD ERICSON, East Carolina University—The Growth and Marcescence of the “System of the Optimal Functioning of the Economy”
JOHANNA BOCKMAN, George Mason University—Socialist Banking in Yugoslavia and the Third World Through the 1980s Debt Crisis Discussant: GÉRARD ROLAND, University of California-Berkeley
12:30 pm Pennsylvania Convention Center—203-A IOS
Empirical Studies of Contracting: The Case of United States Oil and Gas Leases (L1)
Presiding: KENNETH HENDRICKS, University of Wisconsin-Madison ANDRES ARADILLAS-LOPEZ, Pennsylvania State University, PHILIP A. HAILE, Yale University, KENNETH HENDRICKS, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and ROBERT H. PORTER, Northwestern University—Testing Competition in United States Offshore Oil and Gas Lease Auctions
EVAN HERRNSTADT, Harvard University, RYAN KELLOGG, University of Chicago, and ERIC KYLE LEWIS, U.S. Department of Justice—Information Asymmetry and Second-best Contracts in the Oil and Gas Industry
12:30 FRI
Friday • January 5
144
THOMAS J. HOLMES, University of Minnesota, BOYOUNG SEO, University of Minnesota, and MATTHEW H. SHAPIRO, University of Minnesota—Royalties, Investment, and Land Quality
ASHLEY VISSING, Duke University—An Empirical Study of Market Power in Natural Gas Leasing
Discussants: MATT GENTRY, London School of Economics KENNETH HENDRICKS, University of Wisconsin-Madison DANIEL A. ACKERBERG, University of Texas-Austin KOSUKE UETAKE, Yale University
12:30 pm Loews Philadelphia—Lescaze ITFA
The Impact of the Digital Economy (F1)
Presiding: JOSEPH PELZMAN, George Washington University
SVEN W. ARNDT, Claremont McKenna College—Digital Technology and Cross-border Production Sharing
ALAN DEARDORFF, University of Michigan—Digital Trade and Comparative Advantage
JOSEPH PELZMAN, George Washington University—Accounting for Digital Assets in International Trading Agreements
GINA PIETERS, Trinity University—Cryptocurrencies As a New Global Financial Asset
MICHAEL PLUMMER, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe-Bologna—Megaregionalism, Trade and Innovation in the Digital Economy
Discussant: MARTA BENGOA CALVO, City University of New York
Friday • January 5
12:30 pm Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Independence Ballroom I
LERA
Panel: Labor Policy Developments in the Trump Era (J3) Presiding: HEIDI SHIERHOLZ, Economic Policy Institute
CELINE MCNICHOLAS, Economic Policy Institute DAVID WEIL, Brandeis University
TERESA GHILARDUCCI, New School
MICHAEL STRAIN, American Enterprise Institute
12:30 pm Pennsylvania Convention Center—202-B LERA
The Effectiveness of Public Policies to Promote Employment and Safety (J6)
Presiding: KATHARINE ABRAHAM, University of Maryland
TING ZHANG, University of Baltimore, and DAN GERLOWSKI, University of Baltimore—Welfare to Work Propensities: Administrative Record Evidence
NEHA NANDA, IMPAQ International, LLC, CAROLYN COREA, IMPAQ International, LLC, and BRUNO GASPERINI, IMPAQ International, LLC—Startups FOR Unemployment? A Randomized Control Trial Study in Florida
LING LI, Syracuse University, and PERRY SINGLETON, Syracuse University—The Effect of Workplace Inspections on Worker Safety THOMAS HEGLAND, University of Maryland—Payroll Subsidies and Employment: Evidence From Nursing Homes
Discussants: DANIA V. FRANCIS, University of Massachusetts-Amherst TILL M. VON WACHTER, University of California-Los Angeles
12:30 FRI
Friday • January 5
146
12:30 pm Marriott Philadelphia Downtown—Grand Ballroom Salon A