蘇聯「繼承」問題之研究:論克里姆林宮的權力轉移

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(1)•. ml ~ ~. 1111ll. 1 ~~llE.iW:~~~$~~"lt. ~ {i1~:lSmW~. .\11 1. ~~-=5. I $!-<~H!lKIl! ~ W 1$!~~~~~f- ~ i\ 1$!~$1f:~:lS. ~~~ I.~J tgK~~~{~~. ,. ~. -~t~~~:t{~~*~¢~. ~n~. r~~J (succession). e. .~~~~~.~~~~1$!~~~*:lS~$5~N~.~~~~~~~:lS~.eo~~~~~~~~$~~:lSr.~J~~"lt. (Seweryn Bialer. )i$.S~f:($:~{}.1l.. 1 ~~tl?. ~~, ~m$lN~ ~. ~.WtI~~~1IiI1JlH'~~llII!1:!ii I ~l\l;M;~1!i ~ 4\4il!l!' Dan kwart A. Rustow, "Succession in the Twentieth Century, .. Journal 0/ International A//airs, 18 (1964), No.1, 104-13. Quoted in Seweryn Bialer, Stalin's Successors: Leadership, Stability, and Change in the Soviet Union (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980). p.65.. ~ *1«~~:l£lmjl(otJ:rn:¥i. 0. ".{i1'Ua r~1I@.~ (im:tKtGUI./j;\fi) ~a., ... ~~JI!l~~ll~~~~i1I*~~:lS~~. J @l 11tm1~~~~:lS.-R~~:E~~~!iill ~ )~~~~~:lS~$~~~~. __. ~~~$Il!~:lS rlftl.#1~J :;ll.\::\llllI: ~ ~$t r~~J~~w.~~~~~$~tl("lt ~ ~$t:ffi\{Ilf:1\ml1~.~ tEW~:J,;g.*<R$~I~ _~~~~_~~m~~.ft~~m~W_.~Q~~~~~I~_q~.

(2) -'.-. . . . . ._. ............ - - . . o j.............. \:'J iJlI!liOl!«I!l;:.llli;~l!!l!llJlR.li*:!lll!!1:&l. J ~:ttI;t~!Ii ~ ~1W' Dankwart A. Rustow. "Succession in the Twentieth Century. " Journal of International ,Affairs. 18 (1964), No.1, 104-13. Quoted in Seweryn Dialer, Stalin's Successors: Leadership, StabiUt;p, and Change in tAe Souillt Union (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980). p.65.. !1!1~~~~~M~·jtDjg~~ ~.~~~~ll~~i\M~~~:if{~". 0. J. I§). ~ *-F<~~:!£imW.I!l\II-jg:\~ CSeweryn Bialer.)~~~~~~." {,\I.~ r~.:i! <ifi«.'U.~~) ~II' !l!!>!~' '1il.Hf(;P~-N~. 1 -\@1~~~~~.-R~~:a:I$~~@ ~ ~. 0. !1Jt~~Hl.~R:S.~$!~~m$~\1'l!i ~. ~~M~Ia\l1E::tfI r~.1+lllJ ;llt. ~ 1!<* rf1t1if:J 2:lI1#1~~~~M$~lJliHUi ~ _*,*,{aE\1ml!l!!J:<'~ 1E#1l1t~~t:R~!~~ 1 ~1I1"lt ~~~OO~-$ltt$!.*~~ ., *«Ml-ffi~W. ~ lItfgjj1!~~-\Jll!}L-~ 1 ~~~:lfi~1;R .. r~-\Jll!lM~~.~.~.~.m~~~.~oW.~lM.~.~W~~.~~.~., • • m~.~$!.~:tfI• • , .-R~ • • -R~-$l~-\Jll!~~~8~.w.~~.a.~~ • • o• • l!!J:<~~~w' • • ~.~~~~~.~ • •#1~@~~~~ :l;t1r« 1 :¥!Jl~~ fP-:l. ~\1'l!i-a- ~ ~~~~~nl:(1+lm~~.~:ttl• •M$! ~ ~~~~{¢~~.{\!i. ~JR~.~~.~#~·~.~~~~*~~~.oJ®. :int~~mj!(~lJl~~mt~~~~~~ ~ .-RIi~{¢~$E~~$!.}trl:$.::!I!·~~ll$1~~~~lll.tlt ~ ~~~. • • *R~~~~~E$!~. .~~i\~~OO~~~~.*S.~-R.~~.~~~~~~~.E~ • • • ~~.~~~.~o.~1E~.~~~$.( George W. Breslauer) :£s~<l;i~-m<JlI!\l~{¢il$lnt.Ht<~.~.1'}1f:2:lffiit ~ ~.~~:tfI.1'}1f:m$ • IDlj(-\Jll!}L-~l11$~$!. (aspect) ., 1 • -m<JlI!\l~~.~~~m$f1$l: • :int~\1'l!ilt:lR~« ~ 1 $iIl¢(JlI!\l~.tltR~·· ~. 1 $!~~."lt~iSl.tlt ~. ~11~.~~~.~.~~~.~~E$!f1*"lt~~• • ~W.~.R.-~~~~~~.~.1 ~ .. ~e;. ~~~~~~~~1E~~i\~~~~.~.~~~{¢~~~~~~~o~~~~~~~a~~:tfI{¢~~~o. 0. ~1111nN ~ ~~. 0. ~1l1 ~ !f1'}1f:~~~. ~1lR~~\\Wli r~-a.<JlI!\l~#fiJ (post-Stalin consensus) ~~~ ~ • • IDlj(-\Jll!.Illl1\~~~@l lItfgjj1!:£S~w.~~~~~\lJ.1;l-H<~!f1'}1f:2:lflR • ~.:a:r--.~~~~~ •.. :l!m~ ~ lItil:i'~~ml~~~.*~~£n:r;.&l~-<lm\Ht~~ • 1 }L-.~ll.lmt\~iltlfl)ii'~~~!f1'}1f:~~. !Ill(:l;t1~~~~~~~~~~'~*«i<. ~~aIlt~I~~~!f1'}1f:~~~~$Ellfi@~ ~~€@ 0. -m.1t ~ ~~~~W.tIiHl"lt~r«*~·~ • • • ~~t:R~**~-jj1.1'}1f:~lfl~~f!{¢~1lr.~~.· ~~#1f11'}1f:~~.}L- ~ :E;~.~~. ..Lj1;R~~l~*.:a:~,*.· ~lll!I!il1II-<W.t:R$~~!f*~lfl"lt ~ ~1~;l;!;l1lfi@-<., m~~{¢~f!\11~1El1if;\E··~"lt1l~~lit!:i ~ !~J~~ll~W,:;\E. Bialer, OPt cit., p.65.. ~,*, • • ~W.·~~.:E;N~IDlj(-\Jll!E~~=.:ttl°~~.*1E~~.~(MyronRu~)~~~~~~.IDlj(-\Jll!.*~~.o.W @. ~]il1. @) Ibid., pp. 65-66.. George W. Breslauer, rtpolitical Succession and the Soviet Policy Agenda," Problems of Communism, May-June 1980, pp. 34-36.. Bialer, OPt cit., p.68.. @l. @. ~~r.1'}1f:J~lfl-N~~.

(3) ~. ~. ~. ~ . ~f~~:gal$f:~~ ~ ~~1l\@ I~~J. (phases) ~ ~~:\Ill(~$f:~~.g)?~:m 1 :g.11~~··. 1 @.~~loIH~. I~&;;~$J. (oligarchy) :milt~. 0. !IV~~. ~~. 0. 1 ~*~{W:ih.~~~. ~ <~~~)lif. W.l@~~~~.~~~~~~~$~.~:m~~~~~~~~l@a.**:m.~o~l@~~~~~.~~~~~~. 1 iilR.~. .g~:a~.1 i@~~ ~ ~~~. .+<f!~ @~~$:m~$:~~S~i¢W .~. .111@~~~~~~£~ ~ !1!'~~~~$~~HQI:\Ill(f!~:milt~ ~ :\Ill(~~:m~~~~igl1~~~f.;~\§{W@. • • ~\§~~*~~.:m.~~W~W~$f:ilt~~.~.~.~.)liff!~\§MU:mf!~~.~~o~~~.~:m~$~.~ ~~~~~o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. .. -H«~~~~ ~ $.g~flli~.1It~$ (leadership politics) :m)g[~ffi!.~~ ~ +<~~'QG~)\lSI~iIIl2,·· 1 )\lS~~~1It~$~l.ijK%1<~1I*.~ ~~I)\lS~.*~:m~m~ • • ~.~$~~~.I@~.:m~f!~~~~:\Ill(.1It~~~~~:a~~:m~~oW~~~.~£:m m\!;l ~ ~:!tFd.l1)\lS1~iIIl2,~~~l.ijKt9<~~f~~~$~)jQ:m 1 @:\If:.~\lffi11.:m ••. ~ e~~~$f:. ~ f!~~$>W$>)lif~1It.~E~$f:1!l? ~~$~~.:m~~eom~~:\lf:*~.~:m\lffi11 • • ~o :\Ill(~~~~.~W~.~~~~.~~~~:m~\§@~f!~~.~~~~:\Ill(.1It~~:m~~ • • ~=o.~~~.~~~ • ~~$~ 4amitl H t( .~:\Ill( I 4am~ J :ill ~ilt~{oE{oE [g[:\Ill( ~$f!~:mj!IEu¢( \§~~* Jjg: W.~ ~ .~~~.~ict.m~~~~ ~ ~:\Ill(~-H«~~~ ~1Il~~-tn~11~ (Nicholas II ) ~C@m~ml'($·· 1~1n@)\124ict.~ .~~~~~.~:md*oJ~~.~ .. 1.~d.~ict.~~*e.~*~~.~Jjg:1!l?~~~~:aw~~~~~~~4*~W 1~ J ~-tn~11~:m4~~;J71 ~ ~,*,~m\!;l~~~ 1i\4~Itb~J (Ivan the Terrible) :m'H1~ ~~.'Qit .. I~.~:m~$~ ~ *@l*C@m• .\:l::i~~$(~m( ~ Jjg:1!l?~~.\:l::iI~~{nm(~t'§.(~:\Ill(tr~ J ~~+<* (Peter the Great) ~m\!;l~~·· 1.~1+\mi'*ltitlE.~~. J (despotic personal rule) 0 !1~V!i!t~:l£l:rt1,l;1;\1 ~:InK r.Fc'f~;1!!:J :l£lllf;-Rl!M-l;!:: ~ .~*i?i.~~m:l£l\l11!llili 0 ~1W Myron Ruth, "Brezrnev and the Succession. ~llltj§llllUt~;1!!::l£llll~~1J;i ~ -l;!::~:InK rlll~~J .i!*.:l£l~*.~ r.Fc'f~;1!!:J (Oligarchy), rw.~:l£l~-<$;1!!:J (limited personal rule) {¢ r\lti1:l£l~-<$;1!!:. N. Issue, Problems of Communism, July-August 1971, pp.9-15. Carl A. Linden, Khrushchev and the Soviet Leadership 1957-1964 (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1966), pp.2-3.. Quoted in Merle Fainsod, How Russia is Ruled (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1963), p.4.. ~:m~~. 0. ~~~*~1!l?~~* ~ ~~~~~;\t*,~4F~~llI\- ~ e{~~D(m\!;l~~~~~:mHt(\§rr.J. 0. ~~m~ (Peter Vanneman. • ~~ • • ~.~.~.~:m.~~~~~~4~*~~~.~:m.~~:\Ill(*Jjg:~~~~~.~.*.)lif~*a&~~~ •. @. e. @ Myron Rush, Political succession in the USSR (New York: Columbia University Press, 1965), PP. 140-141. $l\;litWIlR 1.i?i.~mt-H- ~ ~.;:at->$. 4.\:l::i~~~.:\Ill(~'Qit~~~\§~~.~.:\Ill(~~~~m~*~~ • • ~t(~.~~~M*$.~ict~.~~~oJ@. •.

(4) Carl A. Linden, Khrushchev and the Soviet Leadership 1957-1964 (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1966), pp.2-3.. Issue, ~ l'roblems 0/ Communism, July-August 1971, pp.9-15. Quoted in Merle Fainsod, How Russia is. '~;"~'i,. e R~led{fa~~rJ4g,,: H~~vl,lr(i Unj,~~~~ity J~r~s!~~?6.l)';~'l\~.. ~ ;~". @). D~~~*. ••. .. ~~*.~~~.~~~m•••. ~~~~~~.*.~~H~~ruo~~*(~~rVUHmb. •• ~ •• ~.~.~.~~.~·~.~~~ ••• ~ ••• ~•• ·K~~~~*~~ ••••••~.~a.-e•. ~~. • •• ~~.{[I~-K~~~.. ••. ~;$!:lHIl(r$~~:Jn\lJ. (Fyodor Burlatsky) .ll2 ... 0. - ~~~~{[I~~~jlg~ . ~mj1(.~~.~~4g. a J @ 0. • m.~~~~.~~~~~ ~~~.~~~~H ~. 1 .\l!I!1II\~4t-~. rll~~. 1 ~-<W;t~H~m~)tg. )*~~.~ID~~·· r.~~m •• ~~WI.~.~·.~~~~.~ •• ~-~l~.~~~ •• ~~.~D.~~m.. .~ • • ~~111m .~~mj1(:fK.~;$!M1~~. .. ~~~~;$!~m •• t:i~1\Ill:!~*. 0. -!±-.at::jD\(ljlptJ11Q - ~1\.~:jD\(~11~~f,11~-<~~P-:1.~·- ~~.~~\l!I!1II\*l~ . HEr,i~;$!.~ . {i1:\!~:B±~~ 1 ~~ • ~Iil~~-< J ® :fK••~~~~\l!I!1Il\llMl!!!~~M1~~\§ . ~~~~~f'-.~.~W~ .:\i!l:jD\(1~11~~«P-:1.~. 0. J @. ;$!.~%~~~o~~.~~-~~~~.~~~~~.~~~~·~~r~~~~l.~~~•• -:jD\(~~~~~~~~.~ ~~11~~. _~~~lI~~~.ti~~•• ¥I!Y~;$!~. 111!tl\~~~c-·~f'-.~~at~~HEtJ. .••~\N 1. ~~~.:fK •• ~~~~~ •.•• ~.*~~~~~~~~~~~o~~~~~~~~~~.~lI~o~~~l~I\~~ lji*~~~~.1\Ill:!i7ffill~~inJ[~c-'~1\11[J-N. .•~~~~~:fK~~.~.-~~~~.*~~oW~.~.~· (game theory) • •. - .~~~.HEr,i~. ~~~)g[f::HEw,wi~ r1t~M1~J 0. !~!~~. r~iiK:t1:~c-·~~~$.~c-, J (Kto Kogo?) (Who whom? or, 1. r 1 f::l!i:;~~~f::HE,jf(J ~ r~~iiKll@. ~%~rM1~~~J. ~~~.~-<~.¥I!Y~~~~~.~~.~~~~*{[I~~~~.~~.DW~~~~.~-!±-·~~~~~~I\~~~·~~~ -<.~ ••• %~~.ofi~1\Ill:!~~. 0. ~;$!~~~~~iiKiR~~~~~'Ii~ ~~1111[J. (Zero-sum-game)~.. Who wins?). J. ~~-~~lji*~W~.:B±~~.~~l~~~~.~~~f::m·*~~.*~Iil%~~~~~~~~o~~~.W:fK.~ ·%«r~;$!Il@J. r.~.J·. .~.m •••. ~.¥I!Y.Iil~-!±- .•• ~.-<~~;$! •• -N~ .• ~~~ •• ~~W.~~~o.~~~ ••.• ~~r%« rW*••J ·~~r~~•• $~.~J.·~~~~.~.~~w~mtJ~o. ._.J. ..\Jl-R. Peter Vanneman, The Supreme Soviet: Politics and the Legislative Process in the Soviet Political System (Durham, North Carolina: Duke University Press, 1977), p.22.. ~~·~.~~~~~~~·.~~~~~~~.~~Iil~~iiK.~··~~~~~~~~:jD\(~-<~~~~~~I\.~~~~ @. ® Fyodor Burlatsky, The Modern State and Politics ( Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1978), p.21.. V. 1. Lenin, Collected Works, vol. 25, p.366.. @. ~. r.~ J l[[~-N$:.g~.

(5) ~. -\J.1(. l~~*~~~•• ~~~~o. • ml W••RoW••• ~~~l ••••• ~.~.~~~~RS~~~ •• ~~.R•• ~~*_@o. ~~*~.~l[[~. ,. ~~@~~~.RW.~~~.*~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~.R~~~.~~. ~ 0. ~*~e~1lll:1&.~/H1~;@1!!~~~. 1 -lijQiH!l~Im~~l!!t~~I~i!M~f,il~. ~ ~. 0. ~{il~~4ffl~ijijt$<[iW,!*. 0. ~*. ~~~mt::l;:~1&.~~ •• !~~@Im~~~~4W ~ ~*~wt~:l?l~<!l;ll1:il:i (legitimacy) *{!!1~.~~ r~~ ••J (Charis. matic authority). ~~~~~4W~!l!m" ~~~Ml;$~l~ijijt~:j~H!l ~ ~~\2~~\m~~~1rt:}E.$~~ffilll£~ r~~~4ff J @ ~. ~-8i. 1 .~~-<l!!l:~nR 1 .~~-<}E. ~~e~~~$~.~~.f!~~~~~~~~~*~. -ffi~~1:W~~~~§: ~ ~ rit;~J. •• ~~~*~.-<r~~J. 1 f!:l?l. (Max Weber) ~~-;!J1 ~ !~~.~.~~$~~~ rit;~J -<$i;!~\i!l!( ~ ~~\2~~~ r~ll~~J (routinization). r;l;~J ~\i!l!(lii'~li1r~~~~~. ~lUnl':Q;!. o~11111l-N ~ ~;$~.~~~\i!l!(~~@o. ~:Q;!~.~.~~~~~~~~~~o. l!!l:S~.~4Wo~ •• ~~•• a~~~~l.~~.~~*~~~rit;~ ••J o.:Q;!~r~~~J.~\2.~~.r.-<.. ~"'~~4. f\\\ If'd?~ J. ~J~*~~*$£*~e~~e~~~**~~~~~~~}E~~~~~~~@o. \'. ~W~*~.-NS~~=~~~~~.~~£$~1&.~.#~~~~•• ~o~~*~~~~~~~~~~.~r-<~ •• 0. oo.~~~+l<. (Georgi Zinoviev). ,. 0. f-*I9tl+l< (L. B. Kamenev) ,. t:&~+l<. (Alexei Rykov). ~:t!.¥f~. ~J (Council of people's Commissars) ~ r 1+l-il!EJ ~~~*~t~l~t§~~l:l:f~~. ~ e~~~iH\~$.~:Wi~ ~ S~.~ ~-K.~ 1_ ~~ ~ ~$~~r4ldW~~,*,.@J~ r~~D@J (Politburo) ~~~-l<~~nll1(·· :t!*~~ (Leon Trotsky) , (M. Tomsky. # '. 0. .. _. @ Linden, OPt cit.. pp.11-15. @ Teresa Rakowska-Harmstone. "Toward a Theory of Soviet Leadership Maintenance. "in Paul Cocks, Robert V. Daniels, Nancy Whittier Heer, cds., The Dynamics of Soviet Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1976), p.54. Max Weber, The Theory of SI1cial and Economic Organization (New York, 1947), pp. 364-371. Robert C. Tucker, S~alin as Revolutionary, 1879-1929 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.• 1973), pp. 304-305. @. @. •••.$,*.8. W~*'EHjilll~~~~~=: ~ Jp.~,l:,(_tt=>ll\J,w.j"","- .... <~... y "c/?Mtlr~*_:W.li.

(6) ). -~~---,. -------. Whittier Heer, eds., The Dynamics of Soviet Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1976), p.54.. ••~o. ... --&~&_&~,. ......&_.;. 1~1111~H:i~:mR 1~~~* ~ ~$1.~!£jR~iiHg[~.~~~~. Robert C. Tucker, Stalin as Revolutionary, 1879-1929 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 1973), pp. 304-3Q5._. ® Max Weber, The Theory of Social and Economic Organization (New York, 1947), pp. 364-371. @. om~~~.WM.~.~~. w.~*,gtnn~~~~~~ ~ ~•• @!®::?£~~~-tW ~ e{DlH~*. 0. ~:t: ~. W.. ~:fU!r~J. (Komsomol) ~ W.~~:ji~I!~.~~lI;fifttl[:~ ~ ~*#\<~~~~*. ~ •• ~~~~~o:mRl~~~@!~~.~~.~~~*m~.~~.o w.~~~*m~~.M.~~~.~~W+~~.~.~~.~.~.~o~~~.~.~.~~~~ ••• J~~ •• ~D!IIl~J ~ ~w..~\iI!!\~~-Ktj>(~. Mo~~~~~~~~*~$1~~.~~ ••• ~.~ ••• ~~.~m~~.$~~~~©o. J. (troika) ~ <~~~~~.HJi~~~ ~ ~~. •• ~~. 0. ~~~*#\<~\iI!!\~~.~~~~e~~~#~~~~W.~~~I!~~~~~~~o~l~~~W~.~~~~~:ji~~~ $9:lf~.@J~\~Ht.~~~+K~-t*';w:l+Kw.~~ ~11lfa%~1HI!-. (Lenin's testament). ~ ~ ~~. 0. ~.~~ ~ ~.~mWKn~'~1~~W!!lI~~Hl!~*~~~~.~. 1:gl1t!. 0. 0. W~. ~.~~.~~~~~~~~*#\<~~~~~~ •• ~~.~&~~~9:lf~.~~~~UM~~.~~$o~~~~~~~ rn*(4~~ ~~.~1I)!/~J. ~• •1lf: ., {J]J~~.~.~$t!llIjj;hl* ~ ~@!~~*~~. .~m~~~.~~e~~.~~~~~~~~$.jj;hll.~~l~~~~~.~~~~oJ~~~~ ••• ~.~~~m~.. ~.~.~~.~~~:t:~le~~~~~~~.~.~.~~~~.~~~~.~~~~~~¥.~J~~~*.~~~@o. •• J~9:lf.o ••~a~. ~ ••• ~.~~~*#\<~~ •• ~~.9:lf.~~.~.~~.oJe~.W~~.~J~ •• ~.~.~~~l l~~~. 9:lfnIll(. 0. 11l~-S$l~!~~~.~~ ~. {DlH~.~.tr~$iIn~~-t~ (Nadezhda Krupskaya ) +~@~*~~*~~1I)!/1!. 0. ~*~_~~~~~l@~~W~~~9:lf.~~.~~ow.m.~~~~~••• ~~~.~~«~. J ~~~\{!>(im~~~.~ ~. ~~1nl! ~ ~~.J ~.M ~ 'ffj<~U~.~.~H~ ~ ~~~~~.~~~~~ • • ~¥1l'r~~~{¥,®l. ~.~ ~ ~11)!/~. ~~-K~~-t*;w:l+K* ~ **.~.-K~~.@J~~~~W~~111~-S$ ~ ~~~:t:111~,*, ~.~rr@J. 0. ••~.J. 1~H:i1(~t~~11+~~.1ll? ~ ~~:I$iIn~+KR:l'h{rf-r(4*. ~~*~«~$r~~~.~J~~~'~~~~~$~~r~«~.~J~.~o~~~~~$r. ~~ ~ ~.~ ~~1I)!/~J 1@\W{. 0. o~~~~«~~~r~~~WJ.~o. ~iE!H.~.~.~~~~J ~ ~*~e~{W~&ffi~Jliru~~$t!IIIjj;hl.:8i ~ ~~~{W~~~~~im~.,.)m~~~*-tomE~.\l1-r~. ®. -\l-\l. (New York: Vintage Books, 1978), p.48.. Robert C. Tucker, ed., The Lenin Anthology (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 1975), pp.727-728.. © Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit., p.33. See also Leonard Schapiro, The Government and Politics of the Soviet Union. ® @. ®l Ibid., pp.726-727.. ® Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit., pp.23-24.. t~~ ~.~J ~lIi~$~.

(7) ~~~. ~ \\. I'. 1 ~llgr-ltl-l. ~~=*'S~¥if";~-W'r.\ r~. -<J. ~~. ~<. 0. ar:l1+ 1 w-tIH:l o~:!fi~ ~ ~~~~r« 11$}E-IH\-!!:!fi 11.~~~~J ~ 1.~lWf~J 1l?~ :\Il1(~~~~$ln .. 1~~n@J :!fi~Dll!(*\§..Lj1El-~ ~ e~*~~:!fi~l\{lSiIJ!!to:' I ~$n@J :!fi.-R~..a\P~iIJ!!to:'~.M+l I-a-~_J .~ 1$-<4*1!~~~1l?~:!fi~~~..a\P!Ill~mW·· ~.tlit~I:<~iIJ!!. ~~~~~t{l~~·· tl:i~-<~~iIJ!!~-R~~:\Il1(~~:!fi~~~t:~.:WJ. ~~4:~HIIt~~$:!fi}E-w\·~. $g. 1. ~11-l(-ltl-~~am.tl:i. 0. 0. :\Il1(~*.~lWf. 0. li[illi. ~ fE[. ~~Dll!(-<_:I£~. *~~~ I-a-~_J I:P.i~:I£l!!!-R. 4*11. ~~ 1-a-«~oll!(_J ~~~-t< ~ el!!!-R~-S. 1#_-t<_J. 1111-ltl-jijlJ;!:a:!fi~oll!( ~ :!I!ltnng~ ~. ~ ~,*,~iIJ!! 0. 0. :l!~~~-<.:!fi~{\-!!'~ ~~{!llf1J:!fi~*.-R:15l~~:\Il1(~~*-R~R!1\:!fi~Il¢(.~ ~~*-<4*1~*-a-:!fi~:a:15l~~:\Il1(~-<~~+tl**~*. :!fil!!!-R@o 0. ~~.:!fi.~1l\l@ ~ ~t~Hi?~:!fi.~lWf~ ~ mW-ffi1l11$~t:~~:!fi ~~:a::!ft~~~mW~nll!(4*1~~~:!fi.H\-!!~~. ~ (~11+~-<~i4t\J.R+l\1-<) ~ ~~4tI~fAH:11~~:I£\IItIll. *\@,..Lj. l·l$~g.81lWf~:I£~t:mW 0. ~. 0. tif-. 0. 1.Ii1ffi~J ~~-&{:M;~{\-!!~~~~::!ftHtmK'~M+ll ~\110-ltl-~. 141ft1IllIi1ffi~J :!fi1\lll1l1\$:l~~~~ 1~~n@J ~~-a-:!fi 1\i1~~.J 11<-ltl-~. 0. -S~ i4t\i-r 1 -&{:M;DJ. I ~~n@ J 1 ~ \ 111-ltl-i4t\1 H(-ltl- ~ ~-<~~:\li::~:a ~ ~i-r~~* ( N.1. Bukharin) ~ I ~~n@ J fE[~~ I-a-~.J \E:it~~~~~ e.~..Lj ~ :\Il1(~:a-lit~:\Il1(tKlmi:l£ 1111. ~~~oll!(~i4t\~~:I£~*~~~.~~~~*:\Il1(~~:!fi~~o. ll!\:t: I1DJ~:I£~~:t: ~ :\Il1(:\i-<~*iiIiil ~~.J~~~o. -ffi~-&{Jlll!i*l$-<l!!!-R:I£..LjB:;: ~ I-a-~.J. ~\ l'K-ltl-~ l41ft1fJili1ffi~J DJ~~:I1I$.$.·~M+ll. ~~I.Ii1ffi~J~~iIJ!!~f1J~:aI~~n@J~o ~. g$;l'W-jo:( ( Karl Radek) ,. ~t2:~to:'1K. (Georgi Piatakov). ~~~:I£.~Il\l@~~*~1l?tK:a~grg}E-~:I£~*.~~.l$.~~~~*.tl:iI~~n@J~.:!fi~.o-&{Jlll!i*lWf~~ -a-ll$~~n~~~:Jn\t1~:jtm:!fi-Kl~iii!~*,*~:Bi 1~4frlWf:l¥J. *~1K (.tl:i~*f~f-:gr l-<lfI{~oll!(_/Hiil€J. 1fI) Rush, "Brezhnev and the Succession Issue," op. cit .• pp.9·10.. ~ ~~~!M~:Jn\t1 (~~-a-«H_$.:jtm~) @. 0. (coalition strategy) :!fi~4tI. 0. I. 0. (Lpft nnnn"lt1r.M "'I ,\Im.lrmJ _. 1 1Il'1I.1J/~""y'.J..'mL1_' l~.""'--'-'''''''''"_'. 0. -&{Jlll!i. ijF-<·~\I~HiR~~1K~.if*Wl:l1KlWf~ 11$~~*~iH~~.~1$Hla:!fi~*·~~grl$~*-ffif-~ 1~~n@J :I£\i1~ I~~~J ~oll!(~. .. ~~* ' @. Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit.. pp.31·32. Tucker, Stalin as Revolutionary, op. cit., p. 299.. ..Lj~.~lI~~*.l1ml!!!R~~f@~L~\-NIH\-!! ~ e-lit~~-&{~*~. I~~~~ J. ~. @. r JJ-1\)gIr>(;;t1;r. !;;Iill1d!lJ<>f..llrm. :It::efHl';f~i!:I~~~l!!k(~~*~~waf-:I£~~l!:i\I ~ ~. 1 ~ ~.$ll~:!fill\l@* ~ I~*~~ ~ ~#~.:I£~~<{JQ~mWlWf~ilB!Il!:!fi~~·~~$:~<{JQ~mWlt!E[~H-<~*lfI{ilB!~-N~:Bi~~ ~t:!«~~:l?1t'R:ll::!:$ll!ilfl ~ -m~~~:hII!I1\\I:::1I!\!:l?1. ~1l¢(.:!fi.~Il\l@~~~.~l.~.:!fi~~~~~.~l<{JQ~oJ..

(8) It!I. f\.u~n,. 299.. rOtmcal ;:succession in the USSR, op. cit.. , pp.31.32.. ® Tucker, Stalin as R'tJolutionar,•.op. cit.• p.. •• ~~~e~.~ •• ~s •••~~~.I.o. ~• • ~~~~ ~ 1~.~Jlllg ~ .:J:K~lI!m~~~~mW!WU!IHl~~m<R~··:l::Kl$:~~~mW"lEl.~H-<*.[!j{~~-N~S<R~. #s~~. ~l$:.~~~~~~~.E1M~.m~.~~~.~I~~oJ®. 0. • ~.~~mW 1$!.f1-m~.'I+1.~. 0. ~.EU.w~~+t<~~ (Nicholas V. Riasanovsky). 0. 0. ~~~.~<R~~~ ~ -m*!~tKwtlliMlIlfm 1-K1~~~iU (Left opposition ) ~~. ~~f;ti~ I $!:J:K.:f=lm;:\!IlI-4ff~~-W~~ ·.~m~.~ • • • ~~mW+<R.~~olEl.~·U~.~~·W.~.~.-<.~~~~~:\!IlI- • • a·~~W~~~*'$!~ .m~.~.~.o*!~~~~.r~~.~.J (N~) ·~.~.H.~· ~ • • ~.[!j{ • • ~o~lEl.~e~~.~.~ ~* It(tn{Wll~~iR~J 4rr~m1~~· .~iiii:~BI!$H.rfS: 1[!j{'I+1J;~J ·~-W~~Rl§· ~~.~+t<*Jj'-*Wl:l+t<~~*!\l:{m'l+1. I 4J;t~~.J (Right opposition ) ~-ffiW*.~~*· ~~*-YlE[~-K1~~~iIIi· ~ta.~~~.~ • • • ~.\iS~:f=l~:\!IlI-4ffm ~tao~ • • -<.~:f=l~:\!IlI-.m~~.~~~· • • • •~.~~~.~~.~ • • • ·~~ • • • ~m~ • • • ·~~.*1 ~~.~.J .• ~.~mllin'J~~~~ I-£i-~. J • ~ • • if!m:f=l~:\!IlI-.*~~gta • ~~~• • ~-t<~~rrm( • ~~~-< Cl *II~-nnm~t(tn{ ~ • ~.'I+1.$~~~-W• •)~I~tlBm~~~ • • ~ • • -Y·.~.~~~·~.~<R~~mW.~:l::K«~.~lI!~~H~~~o~~••• 1-K1~J*I4J;t~Jm~ • • ~~~ llE"" I ~.~*. :!IUtlm~iIIi·· ~-N. *!~~~ltlB·.mW~MW.~.~~.~ •• ~~~.~:f=l~:\!IlI- • • ~.o~~m~*Jlllg~~~.~mW~.*.mm.~~o. J® 0. 0. 0. ~.~ 1 1 ~~:l::K~~m~~ ·lilil~:E~~ll!I\l!~m~~ ~.~:!gmW~E~~.~+t<**!~~~mll~~~~· ]fll::~E~* • 1-K1~J ~.m~~· ~4rrta 1 @1~~m~*!~~~lE[~ lR[~ • llE~ 111lFct~imt J -S$ ••• mW~{j\j!J=l$;m~ 14J;t~J. 0. ~~~E I-£i-~.J. 0. ~:l::KlE['lt. .iiiffitlliie_f-mtef$f! ~. ~.:itm~'~~-Y:l::K~~iR-R:lfi1I€~· nt>MJj'-*WJj+t<,*~~.~+t<:lfi~g!. :jmJ:!g~~Jj'-*~+t<W1mK~<A::lfi. • .g,<.~~ 1 ~11l-R.l1t-~$ ~. I *!~~~'I+1.J (Trotskyism) ~~··llliIi1~:E*!~~~~~. 4rr'·~.~-N~~ 14J;t~J ~.~~~*~.~~4Cl~ • • ~~.~~m1l!{ml-Nt,a. 0. 1 ~11!51.l1t-~ 1 ~11l-R.l1t-.l1t-l~)1!1~~~~ ~ t~~D!inrfS:m 1 :l.r::~ ,Jt\~:lfif;ti~. .tl;~~~~@~~4li:m 1111Fct~imt J mE~m;;1;a.. I.~J ~~-N$.g~. ~~. Nicholas V. Riasanovsky, A. History of Russia (Nerw York: Oxford University Press, 1963), p.543. See also Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit.• pp.25·30.. ® Rush. Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit., pp. 25.26. ~. ISl Ibid.. ••.

(9) ~. ~. ~. ~. <0. ~~ ~ ~~ ~ WI ~11K!J:h~ ~ ~~1;},g:wt~1l<*,-a-.~~*~~~l!!m:lfi.~. a ~~~:lfi~iR;WBt!{JjL r ~ 11-<~ 1 ~ 1 H(.ttl-ijji.JE~~#t(~ ~ ~~i1iK~~~~~.wlfS-< -H:lfi~411" r .j.l::jlfS~i1iKJ -< -H:lfi~t)~ .~~" W I ~11~.ttl-+l1m:::f:!Il~:lfi$R+J.Rffil!~-K~4 ~ \RH)~~~1l<~JjL*)!}1;l1l<~~~i¢W.tK: 1 il!E-N~tE:lft\J<lli\e rm;u .~~~ #t(~a 1§liU51J lI[:t:::lfi ~ ~~~® " • .j.l::jlfS:lfiiRR~ • • ~~.~.~i1iKtr.wlfS~.J-<-H" r.wlfS~i1iKJ~.i1iK~~~~:lfi~~~.~.~.~-<~.:lfi.. • •4-.E• • •. R~.W~~~.tK:R_~~~.~l*,~~" • • • ~lli\e~~.wlfS-<-H~~ • •E • • • ··l.~~fi~.m:lfir.j.l::jlfS~.J. -<-H·~~:t::~~W.tK:.~~.~~~~:lfi • • -N~~~~~.~.~ • • @.~~.~.-a-~~ • • ~". 0. -EKJ!1fit~.R@tK:a:lllIlH~~~*@.$f:<\!:1~W1. 1 ~~". ~*1Iltts" r .wlfS~.J -<-H~l!S~~Wl ~ll<.ttl-W111~.ttl-~~ - ~w:~~" ~.~~~:\D1( 1 *'ltl~@ r -a-«~ • • J - ~W ~-<-H:lfi.tK:M~~~-WlfSR.~~$.@o. ,. -a<~~~~titf~lm. ~ 1 ~1110.(lt r.$~J t\J<~~ ~ ~*~~@-<l!l?;O(~ 1 -<13J!!tl:l. ~11. 0. -EK.~~$~~ ~ ~f~~<)llU'l:::l~ 1 ~l($.'l+l.@~$.\f: ~~ilDlI!lIif~illlli; ( Carl Friedrich) ~*wtHH-.~ (Zbigniew Brezezinski) @~~ ~ :\D1(+H.@~~~" 1 ~tUll-tP-i@f~~~~'~ ~ 1 $1~~~~@~~:1i!:l~.n~taM![~@~~·~+<~l!!I::tl!H orl(@\{P{w:~ta~~;-~~~.~Bml-~:lfir.i}<\w:ltl~ ~ ~~~-a-ltl~~~~:itl:lfi r~~m!~J ~ " ~.R:lfi4!f:~tElnll1 - ~i1iK:lfi~~ r~-<jj]UtJ ~mj!(~.~~$~~:lfi~+<~~ " ft1£llE~ (Merle Fainsod) i1iK::!i$I~~~. 1 ~1\1ll!b!•••. ~Jitt~~~.~-~~l~~~~*4t1@~~"W::!i~~-a---<~i1iK~~$~~H~@~~~ l~~W~oJ®. :§:~~~-<!ll:\~:t::~-N~ ~ ~~-<!ll:\~::!i-N~@{~t!:i ~ *$~~~!m:t';!@:\D1(:¥!~~~ •. ~. :§;~~i!I~~~~@~~~~~-<~@~:S:@~.lj]~mjl!!l: ~ *~Jitt~~in~~!m:t';!:lfi/~~'. r3~WE~.~11.~:lfi~~W:lfi~$>j!!R-a-,~ ~ *~~*~@*4t1.. ~~.~$-jt:;tr(:lfi. @. Rush, Politial Succes$ion in the USSR. op. cit., pp. 38-39.. ® Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit.• pp. 34-36; Tucker, Stalin as Revolutionary, op. cit., pp. 300-301.. ll-r.b<'W,-. '""_,.c_. ~ Carl J. Friedrich and Zbigniew Brzezinski. Totalitarian Dictatorship and Autocracy (Cambridge:Harvard University Press. 1956). pp.. 9-10. (8) Fainsoc:\ • . op. cit.! p. 109 •. • -tS': ·w.-iI.<.~·~iI~f~.i:lsm.~!lIll'~n1{,y,I\l~tlml.~.~.

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(11) 0. ~. I=€li. ~. ~. 0. 0. •. 0. .. ~ti:i.~~«.Mii~:l£~.m~· Illl(~j:g:I~liH~=.iifa. ,.. <1\. ( MVD ) ljfoli¢( -. (jJl(.{-\l<4H~tK • •. Mi.~:iti • • ~[!)!ImW~1ll:fg#\ii'+K' ~~I=€li (Larrenty Beria) ~~~~-11< (Vtacheslav M. Molotov) $@ti~. 0. M.~.*.~~J$·~~·.~.#~~• • • • • • • • $~~~~E~~~~• • ·· f~.#~*~.~-~~l.~ ~~~{f(-R~~~~$L.~~~ .•• ~4K'. ~Jl1ru#:iti{ld~+<~!lE1JlntJ (m\~~~~:!£D - ~~lmrk:t:!ttK 11$.~11!t.:iti~~ J @ ~j-,~-::1m(,iiti~rE:-*· ~JlI!l:!#~~~« - ~.1t/U\tr~.liffi\ll!lll~"ffj\$i! **,rm:ffi~~mW~~~ • ..y[!)!l~.~~~ - ~mj~~1i@:**, fIll H~t$~. ~llllr1ml- J ~~'-d 1ll:fg#\ii'+K~j-,~ti:iljfoli¢(.1iI++HI€:t:. ~ (~ml!§:~H~· ~*~~~~~:tHt1~Q!I) '-~~~+K~~tB~{~~u¢: 1_ 0. )~~~wm;~\ii'Z§~I;~~ fli\lI\%1ll:fg1ml- J ~$i!~:\!t:.$~~. 0. ~~w.m~~~~~:l;i - \ii'~. ~~~-I1<WMi.~:iti~:l;i#{\¥E~~ - ~llH.~§~rE:-mW fl1\lI\%llllr1ml- J ~.1 mm: - I~J:Sfj-,1ll:fg#\ii'-I1<~:t: - ~mW f ~«.m~J N-a-~ 1 :l¥~~«~mm:.+Hil€~~mm:lI\%~~~. ~.~-a-«~l~.~~.-a-*~.~o • • ~~~.- f~j-,~• • ~-I1<~~~.*4H-R~~~W.~~«~mm:.~H~-~. ~~~~~ti:i.~~~~~mm:.~l.~:itie:l;ioJ®~\lI!Ill~:itimW-.~~-I1<~~.~r~«~mm:.J~~~(jJl(.~.#~~.. 0. 0. ~~~mW~~~~~::l.r::*llllr#\ti'-I1<~«~~o. 0. 0. 0. 0. ~""'''!i_~'''·'.·.'"·; --',' -_..,.,'- ,.", . ..."... . . ..-~--'\.""'""'-T"'~'. B!?#\ii'. 0. ~~~.D\ii'~.~~~*w~• • • ~~.~«~\.-.~Z§.~f1ll:fg=.J:iti~.~~.D ~~ • •+<~~l~-llllr#\ii'+KW~.#~~ • • • • ~~~~:l;i*-~~~~o~W~Jl1ru# • • -a-~*~• • -~~.~ ~~ • • ~~~lll!l1~ W ftlll~~J :furl§$J~~~ -1ll:fg#\ii'-I1<~*~j-,~,*,{!f~* - ~~.~.~:iti~~# (N. N. Shatalin) - ~r<~I~.\lI!Ill~$.® 1ll:fg#\ti'-I1<~~~~~K.rz~:iti~~~:l;ilE~3>!llil W~.#~~~H< - ~l!!~~1!i1~~~~~W~.#~~~.~!l!-R - ~)!:;;l~ 1 .ml!l~~.~ ~ ~~~If~-R.1ll:fg#\ii'-I1< )1;1~iliHp.~~qM:tllHl{!f~~~~i\~.#~.~ **,~.rp:]~ f~MI~J Wl1\~+ m - ~~~~JlI!It# • • I$~t'~~~11H< - ~~:iti 1 ~~~:$~:iti_~::l.r:: W~~~\lI!Ill~~~~m2::l.r::~ - ~*~~11~~;1t~~fl1£~j-,. • • f(fj~ -llllr#\ti'+K~~-!MJlI!It#:l¥~~:iW-R - ~;l71~~~ • • ~:l;i ~ .~m\1t€~..y~@-R 0 1 ~l-Rll1{!f\11~+l51m ~ ® w. W. Rostow, The Dynamics of Soviet Society (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc, 1967), p. 232. Fainsod, op. cit., p. 119.. •. 1lI:lJ!i.. ~~~II\';alllllf -<!II • i!!!!!'. Rostow. op cit.• p. 233. The Communist Party 0/ the Soviet Union (New York: Random House, 1960), p. 55l.. ® Pra.vda, March 7, 1953. Quoted in Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op cit., p. 57.. @. @. •. _. j@f •. r i!-«1JIl(0(" J. /Ilt~li£'iK:eii::,;,~~:k;+O"__.\IIIi.(~~l ~If:IOlt'll~+If:IIIt) .\li-lll{.:lt~\\\l.~11~ 0 Ibid.. (i) Leonard Schapiro.. ""'-'"""!",,,,'"<' . "')11.~~.r1ll1~~ ~i\l~.~. I,.:.. 1E~.~4k'~bIJ!llrHtm~ •,'!\!l,i! r lIE *J -~1il r .1j,IEr.J~~nIlI(llj.:m:+<~~l-R-< -II< fJI( :l;!;I~~mW~..

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(13) 0. ~. .m1 ~.. <!5l. ~~r~~~J~~~~~H~oJ~~**~l~~~r~~~J~~~~.~ru~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*~ ~~. 0. ~~~$)~~~+1<~Bml-. 0. .w~mRl§ ~ i4-ti?+1<~:\nlll (Oleg Penkovsky) .*litl~-=·· r ~~~~~4l:l+1< (Varentsov) ~*~~+1< (Churavey) 1HE~1~~~_.~ ~ ~~~.w~~?itBml-~mlmdillli~:~nL.WI (General Kozlov) {b!H~~~~Bml-~~:;t;~ ~~~~lltUlll!$)~...Ljll(;tg*4#~f-Wl$)~. $)~~~~. 0. 0. 0. 0. -. 0. 0. 0. •.. 0. # J~ m(~~~~4II ~ :J;:::~-&<jJlJlt~~:;\ll::~-R~a5\:fil;ge~~.~~$l-<~;lg~:J;:::~$ 1 ~~ ~~4>1i.\lt.! ~ :;\ll::~P\Jtilt\Hlm!\~.:iH-\!mJ~~~ -Nf- !1R 1 R\§ ~ ~~~~:a11@ ~ ~~*~f!,{jJlJlt~~*~~~ r111li11fm!a1ml- J ~ iim$~Jlll! 4ii~~+1<~$-R ~ ~~~\E-:!t\ .w~~.-R~~~~ •• ~~+1<.~~-&<jJlJlt~~_*~~~ • • o~~~e~• • ·ti?~.~-&<jJlJlt~.f-~~~o • • ~\E 111m. 1~}I:\ 111-l!t-~~~~ 1 -:!t\~~.~~ ~#: r ~«~nllll(.J ~'h{l:l:H§'~~tl:i r~ 1j\mmJ ~e~m~fI~ • 4ii.~+1<!l!¥:tlS~ ~wru~.~*t~ •• ~.~•• -~~-<~ • •~~·.~.R~.~¢o.~ • • ~.n ~.~.~M~.-R~• • :\nlll~~C'-'~~~~~f-~~~~ .. r~ 1 ~110-l!t-:J;:::1~~iiftE$t· ~:lfh~;lg-:!t\]lj4llim.w~~~.~~~··4# 1 ~}I:\<-l!t-;jlmf\<:Ji:llh<~~llfo:;::::~~tl:i:lon1J¢(fI~-N~~· l!\ 1il€-N~ ~~ -lH~~~ti?+1<4#111~~~iiftE nll1mm~.!1 ~~*4#~«~~ (fjfc:u¢{.~). - 1• •. .: .~~+1<~.l~~H*~ I ~ r •• ~~~~~~. ~~~.!I (.)~.·g~~~ • •~+1<I$~*-&<~~4#~*~*~I~~.~~~~~~~~o~~ -&<~~:grY.:l~~3W1oJ(§). .*.~{b!H...Lj~r.l.mJ -~~~~~~~~~~ti?+1<.~ • • ~~ •• ~.~~~.~o.~~~.¢ • • ~~~ • • ~~~o4#~R\§·~.~~~~ • • ~~~M.~~~~.~.o. -&<jJlJlt~~*·~~~~~~\§~~~.~.~~*~'H~~.~~• • o4#.~~+1<~~~ti?+1<:gr.~~·~~4#.~R. \§~~~~~~,~~~fjfc:~~.~~~_~~' •• ~~~~-lH*~.~.~.*~~~~~~~~iiftE~~~~~~.~~~*. • ~~~~~~~~ftOl~~~~~{$j1I: ~. ~'i'~~-R~*~. ,. 1fI~.'~ .~~~jI;~iP-r~~~~ ~ ~~~. ~-;!J11lll! ·~.wH~R\§ ~ m!a~'I+l~~lW.~.H~:8i~U¢{· *~:l11\n~_~llg~~~ ~ ~m:l~~~~;lg~:a~e.· *~il3!~_llg:8i-:!t\. I~jd.•. pp. 66-67.. Schapiro, The Communist Party, op. cit., p. 552, See also Oleg Penkovsky, The Penkovsky Papers (Garden City, 1965), p. 280. Quoted in Rostow, op. cit.• p. 237. Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op. cit., p. 63.. ~~~~~.~~~_~~~~~~~~~~.~~@o. iOO~.·· 4#~{~~.R\§. ~. (§) •. (Lazar M.. J(~a~nr",;"h"". .. 1,.,. =~... ,-,.T". ••. _. .. ~~ti?+1<~~~I{~ifua!eBf!;;[jfaiiC~[jfaU¢{" • • ~~illIl~~1P<:tlI:: ~ ~~~,~~*~it'~~~,~ tE~:!IJII{~~~jJlJlt~.~~ \ ~ I 10 .l!t:J;:::3W1r<~~~;lg~4II~-<+1. ~lmK~*!+1<' t-~lli!~-j:jn.

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(15) 11* .m1 .00. w.:. r~~~.f!IIt\!U~F~lIl~~~$n~11<$yg. 0. J@. 1$!P-:1~!;;l;~-lW:ifi4it~,~ ~~!!!{mjN;t; ~. lln!!e:-Wil!i&<~~~w' 1 !$!tKM~.-H- ~~.oc~~:ifiiEf~~.. It'~.~4K~.t1Jf~jgi. <K. :¥!-:'i;Y{n!:{n!:~tr2t:l~ .~ e:¥!~-<~. 1 -r:::1(!5l.-ltl-+~+!5l.!Jl ~ ~tK-H--tK4t1 ...w 1 ~;\lf:~"~-H- ~ -ffi~~*11< (Mikhail Suslov) ~mlEi'->~~~11<:lfi 1 ~-!!:!!- r~. r -H-~"J :lfi r~. 1;1$llMiiJ ' r-H--tK+H§MU. ~.~ r~Jl¢( .. ~+tl§J $'.@. 0. ~J o~.~ r-H--tK~."J~~~~r-ltl- ••• ~ ••• ~~~J.W~.~~:¥!:lfir.~J ~~ft~.w.~••-H-:lfi••• ~ ~ .ijtJ~. ~~~~.~~:ifi~~~~~~-ffi.~r~§~J~r;1$llMii.J:lfi~.ti.~~•• :lfi·.ti.~•• ~~~~.~~~Q. ti? I'[~ f4- ~ 11l-R f§ ~ 1\ll\E ••. ~~~~~N.M~~!!!~l~~~:¥!:lfi~~~.~~~~.oUW~~•• ~~.~~:¥!m.~~.u.~.:lfir.~ti. ~J ~~~~.~~~W~~~~~~~:lfi~~~~~~.-<~~No-ffi~~~~:lfir~~.JMii~~~~~~.~l-r:::~~-ltl-~. 0. r~ •• ~J.~~~~~:lfi~~Mii~~~ •• ~~~~~~~!!!~~~:lfi~~~"~~~~~~~-<~~~yg~~~~~~~ ~!!!~tl1I~. ~~~~~~e.~A~ ••• ~~~ •• ~~~o5~~~ •••• :lfiiEf~~.ti~.~~~~~ •• ~.~~:ifi#~~. 1ji¢:f{lH-l!JIS~~l!m~.~ ~. -:'i;Y~IJi!l1--R~~:¥!:lfi~~~~'~ ~~~lft.~~~ ~ ~~.~ll~~~lH~~ • • •:ifi-<. :lfim~.~ :¥!~~~.W~J!il!;t!!llM1-H-!itj),l!=It4it~ ~~~ti'A\:f{l~~.t;;:~.~~:qgiiiit:lfi~.;t;ia\ ~ !1.l..,~-H--tK;t;.-lW~~{lg~~~li::. ,!t1(!!11 <.:l£i~~,~:¥!. ~.~~"~~~~~.~~":lfi~~~.@o 0. ~:t: ~. 1-r::: K1 I-ltl-~-tn8J~!l;~. ~. ~~~. 1-r::: -1( 111-ltl-~~ ••#JJ.l~~. ~ ~mW.~~.-Y~. Linden, op. cit., p. 23. Whelan, "Soviet Succession from Lenin to Brezhnev: The Troubled Search for Legitimacy", Congressional. 1lE~-:'i;Y~tf~.i!H~:lfi~lffl!. ~.~.w~~-Rf§~~~~~~~~~~l!m~~.~~~11*~.~~;\lf:~~-H-.~~~~~~e~~.*-<e~~.~~:lfi. tim ~ @. :lfJbll\.... ___. /~t>~,. _____. Service (hereafter cited as eRS), Report No. 82·15:25. September 20, 1982, pp. 46·47. Rostow, op. cit., 283·284.. Researc1~. @ Quoted in Joseph G. @. -k'1lr"~o lIl!J!llI:hlmll~~ ~ !I.Ii&ml1lIl:~~.::l?iI-'-~ ~ :I!!!{~~~~lJRl..~llIt ~.

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(17) ~. 0. ~. 00>. ~. 0. 0. «. 0. 0. 0. ~ • • ~~i§~ ~ -ffi~~~~~:\llK~~lJI!!I!·Rlll?ill~+::+111~ ~ ~~~j§i\:\llK.~ll§:lfJ'~ lftm(-LJ ~ ~~*-<~I~fi~)~~~~~ ~• • ~oW~~.~~~~~ • • • ~m~~ • • ~~~~U~ll§:.· • • ~.~.~.-<~~.~l~lf.o -ffi~~~.~!;OO>mHt[i'it CA. 1. Kirichenko) :J:;::~.~~.4[l:!lJ. OO>~ I ~~~~.:I~I~:gUI~-<~ e~ 1 ~1(O .l~:mg~· -ffi~~llIfir:~~. r .liffi!~J :!f!~~*-!l< CF. R. Kozlov) ~ jj!-Rm~. ~:it:ll~~OO>mHt[i'it~-LJ W~:t1<11+11 ~~.~~r~« • • • J~.£*~r.liffi!~J~·~~S~.~~:I~·:\llK~.liffi!~.*a.~s~o.~.I~~~~~t[ ~**~.~-< e~ 1 ~-l( 1 .:mg~ ~ ~~*-!l<~.~~!?sfi"~-:ij-\ll§:. I ~·1(1l1.-l(~ ~ ~itli~tB r*1n~~.~#1-iEli![#1-iE J ~~mH~Ym+K ·1l¢~rnr~ r ~.'$!Ij r1\l11mliffi!Jfil!!J ~~fi"~~~~~*-!l<~4[l:!lJ. t[~~-\l!i!~~~.~-<~* ~~~«~.~~.~mH=Ym+K~~r.liffi!Jfil!!J~~itli·~*~~~~~~~:ll~.B~~~r.liffi!.J o• • ~s~~m ~~~~:I~~-!l<~~r.liffi!~J~i\~~~~+K~~!?S·~*.~°:l~~+K~~~.~ • • ~~~~*~~W~~~+K~~ -R~*~~!i!il*~~~~lJI!!I!-Ro. 0. ~~~~'I+l.~'ta_~.-t.~+K CKharkov) ~~~~:ll~~~I\l!l11H~~~· e 1 ~1(51.+~~*· ~W~« r1\l11mliffi!Jfil!! J~4[l:!lJ·a* • • • • • • ~H:J:;::o~~-~~~W-t.~+KH~itli~~~~~+KCV. N.TI~v) -~.tB • • • • • H~ r 1\l11mliffi!J ~:J.?l'. r ~~llI!~.~~.[j!j $Rll1W~liffi! C• • l~:ll-<.~~~) - ~-ffi*{J]l-t.~+K{~.1!~-< -H.tB !El~ • .g. :Ea~• •. ~ • • ~!;~ • • • liffi!~«l:!lJ·~.~.-R~.~ • • :J.?l.-~~~~a~~jj!-Rw.o~~·~~~Wl~~(51 • • ~itli--\l!i! ml~f\In(~€~~~.:i\~~@o. ~ GlI\ -:.~ ~ -w< ~ ~. *. ~ ~ ~ 'W.t:\. r-::. ~ J. ~~. 0. !El~·~ml1=~+KW~~~.~~·:\llK~:J.?l~*.:\llK=tB~~ • • • •itli• • ·.~r.liffi!.J~~~1 r~$~J ~~ 1 :mg~~j§i\~ r1\l11mliffi!Jfil!!J ~51~ r~$~J • • ~~iI- ~liifi~~*+K ' 00>ml1.i'it CA. P. Kirilenko) , ~~~~=ml1 _ CA. N. Shelepin) o:\llK~ 1 ~1\#1.i\~~[!IW 1 ~·1(51.+11~.l~~~«4l1.~~;;<11!::~ ~~~ml1=WO+K.~~~~. I'. Rush, Political Succession in the USSR, op.cit., p. 133, 116.. \ \. r1!lRl.liffi!J~jj!*~l:1E~~@o. •. ~ Ibid., pp. 134·137.. @ Hough, op. cit., 256·257.. Rush, "Brezhnev and the Succession Issue". op. cit., p. 11.. ~. 1_~ ~.1.!tlHl. _,A. '~"1o.,JW1.1. ..LJ1"nt:::"l.MUI,.,.,111 r ~.mJ'1t::I~t~ ,,"11t ...I\./\.I\.I.~. J. ~. 0. 1I!JH11111*j§-LJ~:\l4:;~.l\\!i~~~'h(. e~ml1~~+K~ 1 ~1(J.!:l.~H<~~·· fi"~~,*,~llj!b-<:gH!!-R;t;iiiI fgI~~1~jlH~l1J~~. -....... t _ " 1.

(18) @l Hough, op. cit.• 256-257.. ~*\§-Y~~.8i¥_:g;n~~'h(. ••. -. e11~HlllltH~tl-tK~. \. ~1<k=I.tIt~H<::!i·~ iii!i.,*",*,~.-<:m.-R;;l;;i.. ~ Rush, "Brezhnev and. tho SuccessionJuuC?.;'. o~'\-£.ih.~i ,l"', '/', .. •. 0. 0. 0. 0. jgI4l::t.~w,nitlt.(. .~~~~~.~• • M~-~~.~f • • ~ • • ~**~oJ@ ~~~ll!llP.~~ ~ *~~~~~s:e.~~~ ~ .lSi:E 1 ~ ~"'~.@l~ .. 3~s:e.~• • liiIE~iI~ ~ 4# f -El-iY:\.\.J f ilmliilE~J ~ ~~iR~:t:1·~ E~s:e. f .liiIE~J ~:m~¢lHm~.~&·~ :§:~s:e..~.:m~~:¥l~;W~. =E:t: ~ ~*)j!~ll!!!!~.eJ\K[]J*\l£lll$ f-El iY:\.\.J*f~;W~J ~.~~~.E.~ • • • ~m~@o • • • ~~~~~~~~~~€.@l~~~.ll!!!!~~*~Ro l~K~~g~-~~*~*«f.liiIE~J • • ~*.~~* • • f:il*\ lilmliilEJ .~ ~i7lt\\11.~ - ~~*«i# 1 ~~iI1-El-ml~~i#~I£§l.~H~~~ - 1 ~\\IIDllj(~~~~~I~~'~ 1 'K~ f .liiIE~J ;g±\l£lllfi!ll\.:t:1- ~~~~:lS:;g±*lnl[~ - .~~~:ijj§ ..;g± fl:l~lrr§:~~~'H11!€l!iHJ f ,H11!€J. ~ ~+11~ ~ .@l~~.:Wl~~*«. 1 ~~~~~~jljl~~~ 0. 1 ~1(~~~~. ~ ~~~ • •'I!*« r~;E~J 0. - ~~ ~*i#. r 4tl~~-El-«H • •~J (All-Un f :J:1(1lls:!iilRJ ~~~_:J:1(.~liPZ~~.. o.~.@l~~~~~*i#~.~*;g±~~e~~:t:1~~.~.*«iY:\.\.~~~-~:¥l~[]J~*~~~.~.~oC=E~~-~~ ~\W;1+K~ITh. ion Central Trade Union Council) 'H11!€ ~ ll~~~iI:t:l~*:¥l~;E~~~[]J$~* ll!!!!-~1 l~~~~-~~~\l£lllfi!ll\~iI:t:l@o. ~~~~ r~-M1JllliilEJ ~~, ~~~-&<fflti:lt. 1 ~1. \<~\11~~~~~ • • ~~;W~s:e.~~~. 0. (N. A. Tikhonov) 4# 1 ~~(~~~~4!i'~ r~1i¢(.#lJ flllai,H1fl!EJ - ~i# 1 ~~1(~iJm\<H<if::~ f:il!R lll1ai~. 0. • .@l~~~E~_~~;E~.G~.-~~~W*~.R~.~~~o~.~ • • ~-~*~i#r.W.~~~*~~J ( dnepropetrovsk) *~• • ml (Moldavia ) ~~. - ~ 1 1 ~if:: ~ ~.;\i1;"'~1l!ll1lfi!ll\~~:t:l ~.g ~ ~~~.ll!!!!i\ll - ~~*i't +K (N.A. Shchelokov) ljffi~ 1 ~1(1(~~~.~~~ f<4:J:1(ti~.I~~J (~]Bl,(~~rK:~~) ~:¢(i\I~.- ~~~*~111.~ 1 ~1(~~~O~~~ -.~ rHm{.p\<~lJlIj (KGB) rlllai~~J .:t:l·-~~i#.W~l11~W~~*~~'l!l?~ 1 .~~. ~1lI- ~~~~ ~. 0. 11!I4Bt!!U~~:t:l~=it~~~. <~. - eli#~Ml.:t:.~ - :;I!?~r:rW:Eil!g~~.~~ -. ~~§~t~~~~m. KO~~*~~$-~~[]J.~~~€.~ • • i\I.a:¥li#f~;E~J~.~.l -~:¥lti*~.*$B~.~a~~~. 1 ~-\(1(~ - ~~~~ f:il* 1ilmliilEJ. 0. H~~~nnll[]#E!~+K. J ~1. ~*~:h::~~:Bl$i#-K~*~~~~. @ Whelan, op. cit., p. 50. @ Rush, "Brezhnev and the Succession Issue", op cit., p. 11. Hough, op cit., pp. 257-258.. @. (@ *«~llmlIl\lK~-<.liiiif!lli( Ibid., pp. 258-259.. ~~r~~J~lI'i\I$~.

(19) ~. ~. 0. ~. ~ . J 1 :gn~#-a-«~nillK~mr~··. 0. ~o. r~~:i5i~~ ~ ~;;1!!imWrK:~~:t::t~ ~ -1@'?IHO/;!~~:i5it&{+l!i!Il~. 0. 1 M J .wf~:Jt II. {JII!il!;! ~ 1§~m«~lg:]mr.@l4'\~ ':' ~~~lg:]mr~~~~.i! fmt'-r \ ~.\J -l(.llt-ifHIr~ ~ ~~DJ~~:i5i11>(:\lt-l¥!t~~ r i ~l-E-[Gffl-E-$::Ifr~lEt-~ -t1~~~:i5ii/!5l.~~J ~ r 1 @1~~lEt-~#~'H1 ~~~:i5i!1HI~ -t1. -N~~~~~. r ~~~J. ~. \. ~.\J.\J.llt-.@J4'\~:lfrt-'-Wi!lI-ffi~~~~. (Defense Council ) +tHk~$r1!!l\H~ ~ ~*~EJ.tl~Wl:l-tt<llJ~~~~g~. ( Polianski ). ~.~.~~ \t&r~~~J~ • • ~~mWr~.:Jt • • • • ~:i5i.~J o~lt&r~~~J.~~.~.~~r_~ • • ~~ ~nuK~.-R:Ifr~~-<~oJ@. fmt'-r.\JO.llt-~*~ ~ -ffi~~F£llllll(~~ID'!(~~. :j(1lm~lg:]mr~:t:l ~ ~~~~-N{JII:jffi'lg:iJli~tg$. r!in~ • • J. ~-<~-R:Ifr~~o_~~~~l~<O.llt-~~~I§-ffi~:Ifr~~~n~~-tt<~$.r~~~.~~J~~~EJ.tl~~-tt<.~~DJ~.~~. ~~~l_o~~~~~r • • • • J~~ • • ~~~~:j(=$.\.~~.~t'-r~l~r~-<.~Jm~@o.. l:S"~m11m!i+K:m~ijf~~. 0. I'. 0. riffi~ifa\:lfi~-<'t!l\I\tJ. 0. 0. n~:;t ~ -\l!!!=. r. (The State Committee of Defense. (mini-cult of personality). ~~~~~llt;($!IIlt-KiiljJf'.t$IH;a~~ r~~lY¥.~J. 1\t. .w 1 ~< 11.llt-~H<-Ni~ ~ ~~llJ~-M~.~~~m~t;::.~ ~ fmt'-r< 11.llt-\mI\<* ~ ~:MnW1[]( ~. ~.tJ\11~~~~~$!-<lli:;.i(. .1ill~~t41ie*,*:lfi r~-<'t!l\I\tJ. {1<~~;#~~~~'-E~. ~*,~\!!jlH~r~1ffi&(Ji! ~. 0. 1 ~< 11.llt-+ 1 m::+m ~ ~EJ.tl~Wl:l-tt<~~ ~ 1!EH<-N~ ~ {.f!\~*m-tt< (Y. V. Andropov) .$.f~# r~i1mmlli!J :If!~:t:l ~~ ~:i5i.~~~~~~:Ifr~-R• • ~~~~~~~.:Ifr.rK:~.~~o~ • • ~mW~~~.llt-~.~.~~ • • ~.-R• • ~llJ_= . ~ :/itf.~l2:lJ1.w~~~~~~DJ~~~t'-r Hl\ltj:g.9~~~*1~ ~ ~~~$l~~l!El1\.llt- ~ ~1lJ~~*~:lS:~~ ~@l~~Hliiit~~~H~ ~ l!1:iH<H~@l~-S~ ~;fJ:l:lfr~-Ro® \. @ Ibid., pp. 259-260.. {lJitll. .:;t~~~~~~,~~,:;t~~~~o. GKO):lfi~~~ r~~~~j~~~.t$$~:lfi~~~~.~o~~~**.~.t$~~,~~~.,m~H~'~~~~~~.~~~~o~~~.~~~. II!~:~~.J !I!~~. ~. • Ibid .• p.260. See also Dialer, op. cit., p. 73. ~. Seweryn Bialer, "The Political System," in Robert F. Byrnes, ed., After Brezhnev, Sources of Soviet Conduct in the 1980s (Bloom ington: Indiana university Press, 1983), p.18. •t$~w.g::;a;lf!l~ie*,*~:\I!:\I!ll!!:lfi~~ ~ 1~1~~~.~:lfi'h:'\~·~.ii>_I\;a\'W.W*,*~~~ll?Wil\%iIl:lfi 0 Whelan, op. cit., pp.78-79. tl~.~ ~ ~~~ie*,*:lfi~.~l1S11;l;l1~~liiS~:lfi:!l.!£#. ~~~~~:lS:~*$l~~~F£lll~~~:Ifr.~l2:~~~~~~~~~.*~o:Jt.~;;1!!i~.~*-tt<**~~~mW~~:i5i~~~.

(20) (\i!) Seweryn Bialer, "The Political System," in Robert F. Byrnes, ed.,. After Brezhnev, Sources of Soviet Conduct in the 1980s (Bloom. ington: Indiana university Press, 1983), p.18• • •I!~.~-33.~~~i!i~.I:I!~$lllI!!. ~tlE:*«~.-R~'l!'(_'~ • •W~-33.!lft\~lnI(ft~*«lm~i%IIlI~ -llK.1a ~ ~~h1~'ihlll.~~~~~!IIi~~_I:!~;.''''J.te.la@2,.o!:_fM'1;~~~'flf;:n... ~ ~ti:!. 0. rMBl\.J imIlm:fu.:l?l. 0. 0. 0. 0. $HIBl\:In*~ti:!<I~~-a-tK1\fflIIIlii\a'!lk'. 0. $HIli':~ <$\ ~~~ m$l~ ~ -Ie- mil tHI}J;! *:~UI ~~IlI€i?i 33:\$-$*.~$.UM...y 'It.1ltl ;(iU~t'.~~-+1< **~ffii~t$!~~:l?i:Jl!!-lW. ~-< (The heir presumptive) ~ l-Kr(11.llt 1crr.:ll+H:jtII ~ lll~~~ ~·~:m~.-Rt!~Hjjfi!eil~~~~ ~lJI:m!l.mV{Ill:ln* 1\lH»( ~ifiH.lWf~~ELJ!ifiK (Alexsei 1. Shibayev) ~~~~\-E:-Jij\ 1 lD:I!l~ ~ lim~~~:\aK r ~~m\-a-tKH • •1iU 1+1il!E:1fi.:l?l @ ~. jgI ~ $ ~~t~~~1Jil~-l\l!tifi~':!:1 ~ lll~~ iK ~ ~ ~ ~ lllll ~WJ;l-+1< ifi \ri':\1EU! ~ -<~.J?l ~ Ik:~:;1tHi-< ., 8iKlli.llt;:t (Konstantin Chernenko) .. 4III~ 1 -K~1(.llt~~ ~ ~lim~-a-tK r~IIIjj,\fi~J rK!tIJ(\lIIl1l~.ti:! lilf:ti:!-a-tK r.~lifn J (General Department) ifiimI1$: ~ ~l,!lnM1 r ~DIjj,\fi~J ~-a-«~lifn$.-<. ~ 1 ~~lIIllJlg<4i:><$'.\j!l!\ 1 -K~~.llt+crr.: ~ iK:In*~ 1 -K~<.llt+ 1crr.: ~ ~al~:t:!:1~\Kll\nlIIl; 0 1 -K<11.lltlllcrr.: ~ ~1+1~H.lWf~!~lH!~l!ifi1l(~ ~ ~~~~~~~ ~~ r~~ugJ ~~~nlIIl;.~. 1 -K<ll.lltH:jcrr.:~~. M1r~.lii\aJ:lfi<\lt~~~~il!Il\-.,.~,.~~:t:~.~o. @)Bl\~~~iK" ~ifi1+1~~l;Hl~.!lmV{ l-K1(~Jij\ ~\ri':\1£~~!tIJ(",",:In*I)l~~-Y~.ti:!0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ®~lllll.llt;:t··-a-tK.lii\a~!tIJ(.H~*M1~~ • • ~ifi.~~.o~:In**~~*~~ • • mV{~lllll~W-+1<ifi\ri' • •*-<o l-K< 11.lltl~ ~ ~:In*~ift~:lK~",", i51$!crr.: ~ i@1Jij\H:j crr.:ilt~-33:~ e~~~~-+1< (Dmitriy Ustinov) .. ~.~mV{~~. ' ~ , il!Il\-~~~~~liiK.g:'<iltifi~:$-<~ ~~~~iKmWil!Il\-.H~imIV~ ~ ~ 1 -K1(1-R.lltJij\ 1(.llt~~ ~ lim~-a-tK r1\fflmlii\a~J H~ 1 -K~1(.lltg[crr.:~:m~ti:!<1~~~;l£lifn* ~ :\aKiil1&.-R\-E:-{(4J~~ ~*~:m\it~~ ~ :\aK~~\<~~:lfi~ll/lQ-< ~ .J?l~ft:...~i51~ r~~ugJ \Kll\nlIIl;" ~lllll{;\t- ( V. V. Grishin) ~ ~~;:ttE{r(\Kll\~~ '~~IllIELJiK-+1< (Mikhail Gorbachev) ~ ~.m~!tIJ(• • ~lifngc~H~·~I!t~~-+1< (Grigoriy Romanov) ~*~~~ .\Kll\.~ l1\fflmm·~ =lllI~#;(:JnljJ ( V. V. Shcherbitskiy) ~ ~~~~~Im.~ l1\fflllljj,\fi ~-YIRE~ r ~~ugJ ~~\K1(~ ~ $ilI~:fK r 1\ffllIIm~J !tIJ(iI\m(\lIIl1lH ~iaifi~ra-\llJt; (V. 1. Dolgikh) 0@ ~~lifn~~.'1+1il!E:m1ME~~$t-+1< (M. S. Solomentsev) ~~trtK. ~~~-Y~~-<ll/lQ-a-~~lllI.llt;:t~~~~6~~~~~~~~~~lllll~W-+1<~~*:m~~~~~~:In*\ri':\1£~~~:lfi~~~~. r 1+1il!EJ. ~ +it1ll)!(-lR~:m~,*,~1li.llt;:t~~:fu. 0. ~~.ti:!-<o~~~m:m~~.*~~l~~~lllll~WJ;l~lJI~~-R~~:m~~.*-<~~-Y~lllll~~~~~~o~~~:m~*mV{ .~ Bl\~*~-+1<-N_ll/lQ~. r~1\fflDIlii\aJ ~ r~it€~~$1+1il!E~J. rfl*J. ~1Ji-N$~.f. . -Kl. Hough, "Soviet Succession: Issues and Personalities," Problems of Communism, Vol. 31, September-October, 1982, pp. 28·37.. The Christian Science Monitor, March 8, 1982, p.6; The New York Times, March 6, 1982, p.4. Sidney 1. Ploss, "Soviet Succession: Signs of Struggle," Problems of Communism, Vol. 31, September-October, 1982, pp. 45-50; Jerry F.. Bl\~*~iKmV{~~~~-Y~~l~~~*~.~.H~~~~~ll/lQ~~~~~:m-<o~~~H~~~q~l@~~~~-<:m ® @. ~~.

(21) •. ~ \Iijt. ~. -F!11. ~~~~~~~~~l~~~o.~~~~~~~~~~l.~~~~~i~~~J~lg~(~~~~~~~*) ~~~i.~. .. ... .J~~.ti.o=~~~~~~.~~.~•• ~•• *_.M.~~~ ~.~_ ~.~m*~.*~m~ •• ~~ •• ~~~.~.~~l~~~~.~.~.~~~o~~~.~~~~ •• ~~.~~~~*~~-~.~,~.~~~~~~ ••• ~•• ~ ••• ~~~~.o~~~.~.~l~~~*~¢.~~l~~~.lg~~.~~••• ~~.. -~~~~~. ~~l~~~R~.~o~.~m*~~~~~~*.o@. ~l~~~~*~~~~.~~~~*-~.*m**~~ti~.~.~~~a-~~~~~m~~~H~~m~~~o. •• ~~~~.~~~-~~~~••• ~~~~~~~ •• ~•• ~.~~~~~. =~~~~~~*~ti~~~~~~-~~Wi~~.J~~~~~e~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~.l~~.~~.~~~.o~~~~~~~¢o@. 1\1'l!l-m~!/P~~~ 0. ~.*m*w~~~$>~~.tEti - :f!;l~*I~~{an.~~@I!!~.R~$>~~~~ ~~llliX~~*lmK~~~.~~~t~~~~ W1-F!<11~+11~ ~ .~~~~*~~.~« ~ lmK~~~~7E~!ilt\\jjlH;:;~IBUf ~ ~~~~. 1IIit~iitmI (Michel Tatu) ~~;J$ ~. ®. o~~~iit.m~**~~*~.~S.~~. -~~~~~R~~.*m*.~~.I~~~J~~~ •• ~~~~~o~~ •• ••. •• ~J. 0. iliI~."~U 'l+1iEE~~~ ~ :f!;l~~.m!bt$1~~IiI~lg. tES!'~.~$~~l!l~ ~ ~~.W.~~** ~ ~~.1rrJf!:~. - ~.*m*r<~~{an. ~ ~~:ll •• ~~~W 1• ~ _.. 0. ~.~b~~~.-eiit.~.~~~~~~.~~_.W.~i. .~~~w~~~~~ti~i.~~~.J. • ~i'it:~R~~~. ~~Ka~:ll. ~·~~l~~~~~~~~~.~~~-~~~~~~r<~.~~~~.-:f!;l~~~b~~~~~~~~~~~~o.~~~~. 0. ~. 1-F!<\1l~~ ~. 0. r~llliX.I!~~ ~ Wl~~+~~.:jtmllliX~+·K~-K~~~~. 0. J ~~ ~ ~. rt~ - .~~~* (V. M. Chebrikov) ~m!. i~~~J !ilt\~oo,.;. - *~.* (Y. K. Ligachev) ~m!~~«.~ ~ ~~~ (V. 1. Vorotnikov) ~1ME*~'ll*lm:$l~.~llJ!g - ~!ilt\~oo,.;. ~ \f::~ i~~~J ~~oo,.;. ~:t: - *~~W~liJf{~.. M;llii'*. ~~l!¢(~~~~~«~~1m.<~~.. Negotiators: Contexts and Styles in Contrast," CRS, Report No. 83-141S, June 30, 1983, pp.48·49 .. J. @. •• ~~-~M~~~.r~~ •• 1 (. - .ru->~;l;tirm *.~m*~ti~:ll.~~.~$l~~7Eo~~~~~. ~iEE~«~~~~.~ (V. Fedochurk) ~W~~.~~~~llliX. ••. 0. @ Bialer, "The Political System," in Byrnes, op, cit., p.42. @ Jerry F. Hough, "Andropov's First Year," Problems 0/ Communism, Vol. 32, November-December 1983, p.56. ® Michel Tatu, "Andropov's Difficulties," part 1, Le Monde, April 19, 1983. Quoted in Joseph G. Whelan, "Andropov and Reagan As. • ~ iliI*.J. ·*~~-~~~~.

(22) @ Bialer, "The Political System, ~ in Byrnes. OPt. 0/ Communism, Vol. 32, November-December 1983, p.56.. cit., p.42.. @ Jerry F. Hough, "Andropov's First Year," Problems. .ft11l!EK-«:!£t.~Wlit-\!X (V.. Fedochurk) ~ij:i~fa.:!£trK:~!ifti1$( ~ *;u:;-<:l;tlcn. 0. J. @. (. @ Michel Tatu, "Andropov's Difficulties," part 1. Le Monde, April 19, 1983. Quoted in Joseph O. Whelan. uAndropov and Reagan As Negotiators: Contexts and Styles in Contrast:" eRS, Report ,Noi:81.;1418. JUDe 30, 1981, PP.48"49,.. • l±! rHmtf;<..J. 0. .~~~~~~~K- • • tf;<.~.«ruti~~.~~e:!£t.-<~$Dtf;<~~~:!£t• •~~~~~~e~.r~ • • • J. transition leader) :Ri~4lJ.~ e~tb'~~:\i\l~~K-~ ~ lWl~~~ ~ ~~e~-R~11ll1HI!-R r 4a;lll~J :RiH:!t. ~~~l±! • •~Rru.~+<.~W~l±!~~l±!• •R • • *~.o • • ~~.Wtf;<~~.ft1-\!X~~~·e~• •E*~K-. ~.~~. !il;l ° ~~~:1f±~E~~.~. ~-H-.@'J~ 1 ~1(1(Jlt:Ri 1 ~,~tI~~:!t D~~~~~~~:RimW1ffilEl\#S:*:1f±~~*tI~ ~. ~o@~~~~~~~~«~~~~~~~~~_o~~~~~~«~~~R·~:1f±~~.*~ID~~~~~~1ffilE-<.~o®1. .. 0. 0. 0. ~K-.~.~~.1$1:~~~.~°ti.r=::8F-~~~,*,~tf;<.*«:1f±11<a~. 0. ~<111Jlt·1(rrr.: ~ ~f¢1l!!fi~~~~~*! (Mauno Koivisto) ~~lmK~@;:· ~~ 1 ~~{,*,R· tf;<~1ffilE-<~~~~ ~rrr.: • ~~~ ~*~:Rifg[.fiMl~l1i ( Helmut Kohl) R ~ ~*,~K-~Il~ ~~. W-AAJlt<rrr.:+<1Jl .tf;<~~~ 1 $1::1llK~~.nll1(~~~~ • ~*~.w<4~~4a't~ - ;ilf:~m\!l.*~~~+ 1 rrr.:~+11 1 ~~\l!H1\~~" ~ .@'J~+ 1 rrr.: 1Jl:Ri~~~Il:\(~+11rrr.:~tl~2~~~ -H-«8• • • ~.~~.$ o® ~~{nnr=::iiR{{l\~:1f±l$:~tE:-ti~· ~:!t~~~P-:l4;(~15R -AAJlt+rrr.:\11+1Jl· {{l\~W~~~\ll rJl[~~~~rtjjfI(Jjt.J ~ltae;:~ 1<.gr• • :Ri<4~~-H-"· ~iE[ r~li!DIIJ *~mt1<.e;:~~~~F-~~~~ +11rrr.:l1+~IJlfii'£~llEiE[ r iE[J K-~~1l!!Hl~~ -H-«4ti. o @ ~~~,*,~I~~~tf;<~~\l!H1\:Ri~~ • ~mJl (Joseph G. Whelan) ~~ • • • W~.Hm~ ~ r.-<:Ri• •~~mWK-~ • • :Ri~~mW~$~~.~.~:Ri • •iE[.ol5R.:1f±• • ~$~ ..~~.I(Jjt.~~~ • • oiE[.. ~~~~~$~~ • • -R~mW~.~.~. oJ ®. ~~-~~~.«r.~tb'~J~~~~;lll~~~~~:\i\l·~~~~~~~:Ri~~~~~~~~~~.~:1f±.-R~m~mW~. utl«irI('. I"§'. ".'W'H. ilip:. ~l1J. rtM~~~1K::!:fi~1!f!l' .-R~~.J ~ :gg:1I~\:Ii<~ ·lll{II'.4J+ll\l\tl1~+m. ... o~~ • • • •:1f±• • tE:-~-l±!~-<.K- • • ~.ft1 • • ~~.w.~~.~.R~~~ • • • K-~~.~~iE[.~~~a.. Jm(E[1(o. @ The Christian Science Monitor, December 27, 1983, p.l, 32;. ® Whelan "Andropov and Reagan." op. cit., pp.35-36.. ® Time, February 20,1984. p.21.. @ ~~.l«irI(rtM~~~1K::!:fi.1!f!lJ .. Jm(E[E[o. ® Whelan, "Andropov and Reagan, "op. cit., p.52.. ~~r.$f:J~~~l:t~ . a".

(23) ... ~ ID=l. 00. ~. ~~~~~~fiffi~~~~*~~~~~~~hIi. 0. ~gr. *~~~~'n~~.m!~-:It\m!;f;tl.r« I~*J. *. ~*~~1~~.~.*~~~~~~~~~40~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~ •• ~~~~~~~~*~*~~~~~~. .~. 0. ~.~~~ill~.~*.~.*~~.·a . - ~ , ~~~~4K~~*~Wl. *~*~~~4r-~llm:::~r:ri1t1=1:l. Im~J ~~BSi1l*~$f:W:i ~ $*~I$·~-:It\tI4lltf!llf.(*.m!~ 11l!l:\@!if;:~ ~ rx:l:\G~~~~ii'~~~*~mi!~~~ ~ -ffi~~~?t-N~£~~. •• *K.~~.~~~~r«~ •• ~~.o •••~~~.~*~~~~~.~~.~~~I.~.J~._·~~~~.m -N11- • ~ ~ iiij.\l¢ 1l!I~~}§ 0. @J. 0. ~~~~~~. :fiii\~~-N~to:'~. m*_u=l:l~o~~·W*~~~~g~~· lW~~.*~~.~~~~~~~~~mi!~.~I~.J ~*~~S.~~.~. iK~~?t-N~~~~$f:~ ~ mWW*~~~[S1H< ~ ~.Ill,I1(4r-~llm:::+\\lOl~f~~t!ltl~~[!Il*=~. .~~~~~~-:It\~~.~~~H~oBSi~~~~~~~~~.~~~$~~~~**~o~~*~~*~~~~~~SW~.. ~ ¥'R~!W~~~~~~. ~~~~-ffi~~·~~~~~~~~W1t1~~.~~~o~*~~~·~~.~~~~~hIi·~.m!~~~~~o. \ 0. J~. ~~*~*~~~.~~~~~oo~~~~~~~~~~" 1-ffi~~~1~~~~~~~~~~~~.tf~1~~~~4~ ~~~iR~~~~~~. r:milmr.El. 0. 1 -!aml!J.~i\:::JlI.\l\1l::(.!2!!;ll'=\.I..I...* (". \LLI 1.£'K"\. _ nlt>I.l:::".wr.;'[,., It!. ~. ~~.~-N~.~~~~~.~ ••• ~m~.~~8~~~~~~1 ••$.~~~}§om~~~to:'~.~~~.~~~ S.o~I~$~J~tf.1l- .• ~~~~?tml~~~~~W:i~ .•* •• ~~.~~~W~~ •• ~~~.~~r«~.~* ~* ' iHit±(~:Jolil*1l!!!l:~~~ ( D. A. Kunayev) .~ .~*~*~~~:g~.i!I*~ ~ ~~lilf:W:i~~~1W~ . \l¢~4*~-dtl~~ ' i!I*lW:i~ " tr£~~~*~[f:.\lf:Wto:'~ @ W~~CR~4 ~ !1~~1ll,11(1(--1(~!l@~~~ ". ~~:ggr~~~ .. ~mtHJiK-fK. a. The Christian Science Monitor. November 18, 1983. p.23. @J The Christian Science Monitor., February 21. 1984. p.48. ~ Time, February 20. 1984, p.14 . .~ Newsweek. February 20, 1984, P.Il.. J.+I...!J4:lIIliIllll,Hll-<'M-H-. • .s~:-;i;J!:l-::ii~lD&l~ ~ ~-\l!I!Iii'~~rH.

(24) ll!ll The L'hrlstian Science Monitor., February 21, 1984, p.48. @ Time. February 20, '1984, p.14.. .@ Newsweek, rebruarY20,"1984,. P.Il.. 0. 0. 0. ,;" '.;.~y:,:-:..>'. 0. . .J;\:l..J...f~l~~:!ll1-<~-a- ~ ~~~.!tt&*1!!lt:R ~ ~~\Ct'~.l±:l rIUj1,l1l~J :filmW.~ll=;~~:fil.i<.-ltt{it (-\3+1 H~) , ~~lIIFtiiK ( ~+k=l~) , ~~1lI*~ (~+I5I~) 111-< ~ ~~.l1t1l\a:;:ifi1ll~~i1< (1(+ 1 ~) ~~l&BJi(i1< Ck=l+11~) 11:-<" @ -ffi~ r~~ ora J ~non:;:ifilEl-:\w .l1tain~~ i( +~~ ~ ID.~ ~ ~~!Wll;lg:rw~:s;::~\llU!~-< ~ ii(;g;\IDIlIQR 1 $!l~~a'~.:g±~~.~ ~1lIl(!Wl!l;.l1t1l\a:;-<:ifilil1il ~ ii(~~-<ID..J;\:l..R-a-~~~~.~~$~~ • • ~~.R~~~-<W~.~D .J;\:l.~ • • R:g±~.-a-~~~lI:W.l1t.-<:ifi~.~• • ~o5g~~~.W:g±.i1<.~~&.~.BJi(i1<~¢~~+:ifi.!Wl~ ~. *",1lI~~i1<~¢~<:g±~ .. ~ ~~~~-<~¢~11:g±~ .. .i1<~~~-a-@tj~.BJi(i1< ~ ~ttll!Jl.<ID.~ .. :tI!F; 1 ~~.J;\:l. r -a-~"J -a- ~ roW 1 W~~m(~@H:s;:::g±,jI\\illli£ ~ ~i.'mW rll;jg... J :g±~non:; ~:j£.l1t~~-a- ~ ~S~~" ~ 1 ~<\\\.l1t~~$ ~ ~~~~.R ~1t:g±;J;!1-:::\ ~ :s;::~1I~H:S;::'~1l!Rl1 ~ ~n$! r~?WoraJ -a-B!f!l.Jig~~:g± 1:!Z:l ~ 1mK~{t+<B!f!l.~.~-;ij1·~1l!R\l\ ~ ~n$!ljjl(~m(iI~~!II:g±.~ ~ .~~~:Ei~lW.J;\:l.l~~~6i§;\lIlllil!Jl.<·~:tI!F;15I ~ ~~*+<~~~l&l!;~ ~ ;\il;;,*,~~lIil~ ~ ~.BJiKi1<:g±~:!Z:lOJ~~m~ " @l .i1<lI~~~&.llI~~i1<~,*,:g± r~"J ~ fS!l;\t,*,)gI-R.~~~.~~~:g±\Ct'!}£it!~1nl!" 1 ~<\l1.l1t·1(m::: ~ Ulm!lt\~i1<~~ • • •*~1mK~{t~.W.#-a-«.Ii£~·~~«~+<~~3DUI~~i1<n$!lW.~.~~~.~~~~3WD~:Ei~~5~~ ~<tIl'*'~W:g±.~{nn~!l!rn: n .8g~·i( • .l1t~.~\lIllli*~.R·.,*,.)gI-R.~~~~.~o.~~~)gI-R-<~~~~i( • .l1t{t~~~~:g±~B·. g~ • :s;::~~ \ @=+<.~*l!;~~;m~ • ~~.l1ta~~~,*,~+< .• ~~~~~E!!!l~WBi1<:g±~~t'- ~ ~~~:l:ll;J;!1-:::\m1!1J:§.R~1t ··~i.'~~~~~ • • :g±WS~~.W • • • :g±.*ofS!lroW·.~~~~~~.~.~~!II.~~~l!Jl.<.ID.·\Ct'$~.r~ • • ( Gary Thatcher ). ~~ .. 1l!R I ,)gI-R~llEm1!1J:g±~~~~ • •4N-M~I.t~fgI -Ritl..tlE. {tlHl~111ln~J tW1mK~{t:g±Ii£~~1.10?::\m:. ~~\~~1(~~~~~. • ~;m.R1E. *{4I!t~~n$!f~~~?W. ~+<'*'~t~l,1Hl.~i-<~~1111a. ~k=I. I ~i.'~:§.~~!11.~~~ ( Robert G. Kaiser). 0. ~~.~··1l!Rl1 ~ ~\N~~~{n!1~1!lt~!t!~\Ct'l\lIi1i:f~(~'~1l!R\l1 ·l~~~.~fEiI~~~~ ~ ~~~~.{il~.~@l. 1\ ,.. $lIW~ilili.J;\:l.~~~. i(l&.l1t~:g±~1I\l!ll. l!.<r~~~~.,* ~ fS~~{t¥E~:g±-<~ ~ ~~~~11l$~:g±~~ 0. Time, February 20, 1984, pp.14-1S.. *ll:l-;ij1~m.1tl4 ~ OJ~~:fAm)lJJ!:g±,~~ @. ~r.~J~!II~~~. !ill The Christian Science Monitor, February 21, 1984, p.48 .. @l Hough, "Andropov's First Year," op. cit., pp. 60-62.. •.

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