Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
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ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirect
Journal
of
International
Financial
Markets,
Institutions
&
Money
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e :w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / i n t f i n
The
wealth
effects
of
oil-related
name
changes
on
stock
prices:
Evidence
from
the
U.S.
and
Canadian
stock
markets
Hsiao-Mei
Lin
a,1,
Robert
(Chi-Wing)
Fok
b,2,
Shih-An
Yang
c,
Yuanchen
Chang
c,∗aDepartmentofFinance,AsiaUniversity,Taichung,Taiwan
bCollegeofBusiness,Economics,andComputing,UniversityofWisconsin-Parkside,Kenosha,WI,USA cDepartmentofFinance,NationalChengchiUniversity,Taipei,Taiwan
a
r
t
i
c
l
e
i
n
f
o
Articlehistory: Received13August2014 Accepted19July2015 Availableonlinexxx Keywords:Corporatenamechange Oilprice Eventstudy JELclassification: F31 F33 G14 G15
a
b
s
t
r
a
c
t
Thispaperexaminesthevaluationeffectsofcorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-related
termsintheU.S.andCanadianstockmarkets.WeshowthatrelativelymoreU.S.companies
addoil-relatedtermstotheircorporatenamescomparedtoCanadianfirms.Investorsin
theU.S.marketreactmorepositivelytowardsfirmsexperiencingoil-relatednamechanges
duringtherecentoilpricesurge.Ontheotherhand,theresultsindicatethattheoil-related
namechangeeffectsappeartobetransitoryintheCanadianmarket.Namechanges
trig-gerpositivereturnssurroundingtheannouncementday,butthenegativepost-eventdrift
largelycancelstheeffect.Moreover,investorreactionstooil-relatednamechangesare
associatedwiththecompany’sactualinvolvementintheoilindustry.
©2015ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.
1. Introduction
Thispaperexaminestheimpactofrisingoilpricesoncorporatenamechangebehaviorandthewealtheffectsofcorporate namechangesinvolvingoil-relatedterms.Thepriceofcrudeoilwasstableandunder$30perbarrelbefore2004,yetaseries ofeconomicandpoliticaleventsledthepricetohitover$100perbarrelinFebruary2008.Itremainstobeseeniftherising oilpricehasanimpactonthestockmarkets.KilianandPark(2007)provideevidencethattheresponseofaggregatestock returnsmaydifferdependingonwhethertheincreaseinthepriceofcrudeoilisdrivenbydemandorsupplyshocks.They showthatnegativestockreturnsareassociatedwithhigheroilpriceswhenmarketsareaffectedbyspecificdemandshocks thatreflectfearsabouttheavailabilityoffutureoilsupplies.Incontrast,positiveshockstotheglobalaggregatedemandfor industrialcommoditiescancausebothhigheroilpricesandhigherstockprices.
Theadverseeconomicimpactsofthe2007–2009financialcrisisarewell-documented.Thefinancialcrisistriggeredthe longestrecessionsincetheGreatDepressionintheU.S.,withfarreachingimpactsaroundtheworld.Asthefinancialcrisis
∗ Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+866229393091x81102;fax:+866229393394.
E-mailaddresses:umekolin@yahoo.com.tw(H.-M.Lin),fok@uwp.edu(R.Fok),yccchang@nccu.edu.tw(Y.Chang).
1 Tel.:+866423323456x48032. 2 Tel:+12625952460.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
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intensifiedinmid-2007,theoilpricecontinueditssurge.Wealsoexamineifthefinancialcrisisimpactedthewayinvestors respondtooil-relatednamechangesevenwhentheoilmarketissurging.
Tothebestofourknowledge,noempiricalresearchhasbeenconductedontherelationshipbetweenanoilpricesurgeand corporatenamechangebehavior.Weaskthefollowingquestions:Docompaniestendtoaddtheword“oil”or“petroleum”to theirnamesduringarisingoilprice?Whatarethewealtheffectsofnamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedterms?Didinvestors reactdifferentlytotherelatednamechangesduringtherecentfinancialcrisis?Toanswerthesequestions,wecomparethe wealtheffectsofcorporatenamechangesasmeasuredbyabnormalreturnsaroundtheirannouncementdateintheU.S.and CanadianstockmarketsfromJanuary2000toJune2009.
Theacademicliteraturehasfoundmixedevidenceonthevaluationeffectsofcorporatenamechanges.Earlyevidence findsnostatisticallysignificantwealtheffectsassociatedwithcorporatenamechanges(Howe,1982;KarpoffandRankine, 1994),butthedot.comphenomenonprovidescontrastingresults.Cooperetal.(2001)documentsignificantandpositive marketreactionstothechangesofinternet-relateddot.comnames.Theysuggestthattheeffectsofcorporatenamechanges areassociatedwithinvestormaniadrivenbyapricepressure-inducedbubbleinthestockmarkets.Astheinternetbubble burst,thewealtheffectofcorporatenamechangescontinuedtoexist,butoperatedinareversedirection.Cooperetal. (2005)noteapositivemarketreactiontonamechangesforfirmsdeleting“dot.com”,“dot.net”,and“internet”fromtheir nameswhentheinternetmaniawasover,concludingthatinvestorsareaffectedbycosmeticchangesandmanagerstryto takeadvantageofinvestorsentimentbychangingcorporatenames.
Inthisstudyweexaminewhetherthewealtheffectsofcorporatenamechangesareinfluencedbythechangesofoil pricesandtheoutbreakoftherecentfinancialcrisis.Ourstudycontributestothecurrentliteratureinseveralways.First, therecentoilpricesurgeprovidesusanopportunitytorevisittheclaimmadebyCooperetal.(2005)thatmanagerstake advantageofinvestors’biasbychangingcorporatenamesconditionalonmarketconditions.Second,mostpreviousstudies ontheeffectsofcorporatenamechangesfocusonsamplefirmsfromdifferentindustries1,butlumpingfirmsfromdifferent
industriesmayresultinaggregationbias.Koku(1997)examinestheimpactofnamechangeswithafocusontheservice industryandfindspositivereactionstocorporatenamechanges.Asnostudyhasyettoinvestigatethemarketeffectsof corporatenamechangesinasingleenergyindustry,welooktofillthisgapbyexaminingtheeffectsofcorporatename changesrelatedtotheoilindustry.Third,wecomparethewealtheffectsofcorporatenamechangesbetweentheU.S.and Canadianstockmarkets.Weshowthatthepatternofnamechangesandpricereactionsarebothdifferentbetweenthese twocountries.Fourth,oursamplingperiodincludestherecentfinancialcrisis,whichallowsustoexaminetheinfluenceof thecrisisonthewealtheffectsofcorporatenamechanges.
OurresultsshowdifferentrelationsbetweenmarketconditionandnamechangebehaviorintheU.SandCanadian markets.IntheU.S.,mostcorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedtermsoccurredwhentheoilpricewassurging, whereasthemarketconditionhadlessofanimpactonthenamechangebehaviorofCanadianfirms.Thisfindingmay explainthedifferenceinthewealtheffects ofcorporatenamechangeannouncementsbetweentheU.S.andCanadian markets.
Marketconditionplaysanimportantroleindeterminingthewealtheffectsofoil-relatednamechangesintheU.S.markets. Duringthenormalmarketperiod,nosignificantmarketresponseisfoundinbothU.S.andCanadianmarkets.Whentheoil priceissurging,persistentandsignificantlypositivewealtheffectsexistintheU.S.markets.However,thepositivewealth effectsvanishedafterincludingtheportionofthefinancialcrisisperiodthatsawasurgingoilprice.Canadianmarkets showeitherinsignificantornegativelysignificantabnormalreturnsinlimitedcases.ComparedtoU.S.investors,Canadian investorsarelessresponsivetooil-relatednamechanges.Whilethenatureofnamechangesinfluencesthewealtheffects ofcorporatenamechanges,theimpactsvaryacrossmarketconditionsintheU.S.markets.InvestorsintheU.S.reactmore positivelytonamechangesthatareaddingoil-relatedterms,butonlyduringthehotoilmarketperiod.Ontheotherhand, namechangesthataredeletingoil-relatedtermsyieldsignificantandnegativemarketreactionsduringthefinancialcrisis period.Minornamechangesareinconsequential,whilemajornamechangesresultinpositivewealtheffectsduringthehot marketperiodandnegativewealtheffectsduringthefinancialcrisisperiod.Similarly,firmsinoil-relatedsectorsgenerate positivewealtheffectsduringthehotmarketperiod,andfirmsinoil-unrelatedsectorsgeneratenegativewealtheffects duringthefinancialcrisisperiod.FortheCanadianmarkets,thenatureofnamechangeshasnoinfluenceonthewealth effectsacrossdifferentsub-sampleperiods.OurfindingsforU.S.marketsareconsistentwiththehypothesisthatcompanies trytocaptureinvestorbiasbychangingtheircorporatename,whiletheresultsforCanadianmarketsaremorealignedwith therationalpricinghypothesis.
Theremainderofthearticleisorganizedasfollows.Section2discussestheliterature.Section3describesoursampleand theeventstudymethodologythatweuse.Section4presentsanddiscussestheempiricalresults.Section5offerspossible explanationsofthedifferentwealtheffectsbetweentheU.S.andCanadianmarkets.Section6containsrobustnessresults. Section7concludes.
1 Lee(2000)controlsforindustryeffectbyincludingdummyvariablesintheregressionanalysis.However,nodetailsoftheresultsareprovided.Itis
notclearhowmanydifferentindustriesareincludedinthesampleandwhetherthecoefficientsoftheindustrydummiesaresignificantornot.Moreover, anindustrydummyisnotlikelytocompletelymitigatetheimpactofindustryeffects.
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2. Wealtheffectsofcorporatenamechanges
Becausecorporatenamechangesarecostlyandfirmnamesarerelatedtocertainqualitiesoffirmperformance,itis naturaltoevaluatethepriceimpactofcorporatenamechanges.Therearetwodifferenthypothesesintheliteratureonthe priceeffectsofcorporatenamechanges.Therationalpricinghypothesissuggeststhattheannouncementeffectistransitory andthereisinsignificantexcessreturnaroundtheannouncementdate(Howe(1982),andKarpoffandRankine(1994)).The investormaniahypothesis(Cooperetal.,2001)arguesthatinvestorsareeagertobeassociatedwiththehotmarketatall costsandpricereactiontocorporatenamechangesduringthehotmarketissignificantandpositive.
Howe(1982) argues that information asymmetriescan explain why wealtheffects of companyname changes do exist. Heshows that in thesituation of quality uncertainty, high quality firms’ stock prices can benefit from name changes.Usingeventstudymethods,heconcludesthatthereisnostatisticallysignificantwealtheffectintheU.S. mar-ket.KarpoffandRankine (1994)examineU.S.corporatenamechangesfrom1979to1987and findsimilarresults.On theotherhand,recent empiricalevidenceusingdatafromtheinternet bubbleperiod showsdifferentresults. Cooper etal.(2001)documenta positivestockpricereactiontothechanges ofinternet-relateddot.comnames.Cooperetal. (2005) show that investors were deceived by companies seeking to bedisassociated from the internet industry by deleting“dot.com”,“dot.net”or“internet”fromtheircorporatenamesduringtheperiod1998–2001.Theseresults sug-gestthatcorporatenamechangeeffectsareassociatedwithinvestormaniadrivenbyapricepressure-inducedbubble in thestock markets,and managers take advantage of investor sentiment by changing corporate names to capture gains.
Previousstudiespresentconflictingresultsontheimpactsofcorporatenamechangesindifferentcountries.Forexample,
Josevetal.(2004)examine107firmsthatunderwentcorporatenamechangesfrom1995to1999inAustralia.Theyfindthat namechangesareassociatedwithanegativeimpactonstockpricesintheireventperiods.Karbharietal.(2004)analyze theKualaLumpurStockExchangebetween1984and1996andshowcorporatenamechangeshavenowealtheffectson shareholders.Aspreviousevidenceforinternationalmarketsismixed,morestudiesonthewealtheffectsofcorporatename changesacrossdifferentmarketsarewarranted.
ManypeopleassumethattheCanadianstockmarketissimilartotheU.S.marketduetogeographicproximityand economicintegrationbetweenthetwocountries,butthisassumptionhasrarelybeenexamined.PreviousstudiesontheU.S. andCanadianmarketsmainlyfocusontheissuesofintegrationorsegmentationbetweenthetwocountries.Forexample,
FoersterandKarolyi(1993)andFoersterandKarolyi(1998)examinetheshort-runcrossmarketdependenceinreturns andvolatilitybetweentheU.S.andCanadianmarkets.TheyinvestigatestockpricemovementsofCanadianfirmsbefore andaftertheycross-listedin theU.S.Theirresultsindicatethatsomedegreeofsegmentationexistsbetweenthetwo markets.
In this paper we compare the wealth effects of corporate name changes in the U.S. and Canadian markets over different market conditions. If the presumption of investor irrationality is correct, then market responses to corporatenamechangesshouldbeasymmetricacrossdifferentmarketconditions.Theinvestor-maniahypothesis pre-dicts a stronger market reaction to oil-related name changes in a hot market. If investors are rational, then their responsestoname changesshouldbeless sensitivetochanges inmarket conditions.Othernon-market factors,such as the nature of the name change, may be more important in explaining the market response to corporate name changes.
Namechangeisasignalconveyedbyfirmstotheirinvestors.Thenatureandthestrengthofinformationcontent embed-dedinanamechangevaryacrosstypesofnamechanges.Toaddressthisissue,weinvestigatethewealtheffectsofthe followingthreecategoriesofnamechanges:(1)addingversusdeletinganoil-relatedword,like“oil”or“petroleum”;(2) majorversusminornamechanges;and(3)namechangesoffirmsinoil-relatedsectorsversusnamechangesoffirmsin oil-unrelatedsectors.
3. Dataandmethodology
3.1. Datadescription
OursampleconsistsofcompaniesthatchangedtheircorporatenamesintheU.S.andCanadianmarketsfromJanuary 2000toJune2009.TheU.S.companiesaretradedin theNew YorkStock Exchange(NYSE),AmericanStockExchange (AMEX),NationalAssociationofSecuritiesDealersAutomatedQuotationSystem(NASDAQ),orOvertheCounterBulletin Board(OTCBB).TheCanadiancompaniesaretradedintheTorontoStockExchange(TSX),VentureExchange(TSXVenture), orNEXBoard(NEX).Wesearchforcorporatenamechangesthatareassociatedwiththeword“oil”or“petroleum”and crosscheckoursamplefirmswiththeMergentEventData.Theinitialsampleconsistsof330announcementsofrelevant namechanges.Sincetheinformationofnamechangesmaybereleasedtothemarketbeforebeingofficiallyannouncedby thestockexchanges,wealsosearchnewsreportsforannouncementofcorporatenamechanges.Weconsidertwopossible choicesoftheannouncementday(ortheeventday):(1)thedaywhenthestockexchangesannouncedthecorporatename changes;and(2)thefirstavailabledayofnewsconcerningthenamechangesintheFactivadatabase.Weusetheearlierday betweenthesetwodatesastheeventday.
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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Datadescription.Thistabledescribesthesamplecompaniesthatchangedtheirnamesinvolvingtheword“oil”or“petroleum”fromJanuary2000toJune 2009.Firmsaredividedintothreesubcategories.Category1:firmsadding“oil”and“petroleum”totheirnamesversusfirmsdeleting“oil”and“petroleum” fromtheirnames.Category2:majorversusminornamechanges.Category3:firmsinoil-relatedsectorsversusfirmsinoil-unrelatedsectors.Thefull sampleperiodisalsodividedintothreesub-periods:normalmarketperiod(January2000–December2003),hotmarketperiod(January2004–June2007), andfinancialcrisisperiod(July2007–June2009).
Sub-categories All U.S. Canada Initialnumberoffirmsinsample 330 181 149 Deletedduetomergerandacquisitionorothercorporateevents 101 42 59 Deletedduetolackofpriceorvolumedata 84 36 48
Deletedmarketvalueequalszero 7 7 0
Deletednewandoldnamesbothwith“oil”or“petroleum” 31 27 4
Totalnumberofremainingfirms 107 69 38
Category1 Additionofoil-relatedterm 63 40 23 Deletionofoil-relatedterm 44 29 15
Category2 Majornamechanges 85 58 27
Minornamechanges 22 11 11
Category3 Oil-relatedsector 83 47 36
Oil-unrelatedsector 24 22 2 Sub-sampleperiods Normalmarketperiod 34 13 21 Hotmarketperiod 47 35 12 Financialcrisisperiod 26 21 5
Dailystockreturns,benchmarkindices,andoilpriceareobtainedfromDatastream2.Wedelete84namechangesdueto
insufficientpricedataand101namechangesduetoconcurrentannouncementsofmergers&acquisitions,divestiture,and othermajorcorporateevents.Thefinalsampleconsistsof107namechangesinvolvingtheword“oil”or“petroleum.”Table1
summarizestheinformationofoursample.Weclassifythesampleintothreecategoriesbasedonthefirm’scharacteristics andthenatureofnamechanges.Category1separatesnamechangesthataddtheword“oil”or“petroleum”fromthose thatdeleteoil-relatedterms.Morethanhalfofthe107namechangesaddtheword“oil”or“petroleum”tothecorporate nameforthecombinedsample.Therearemorefirmsaddingthandeletingoil-relatedtermsinboththeU.S.andCanadian samples.
Category2distinguishesbetweenmajorandminornamechangesfollowingBoschandHirschey(1989).Amajorname changereferstothecasethatthenewcorporatenameisentirelydifferentfromtheoriginalname.Aminornamechange allowsinvestorstoidentifytheassociationwiththeoriginalname.Forexample,thechangefromBentonOil&GasCo.to HarvestNaturalResourcerepresentsamajornamechangesincethetwonamesdonotresembleoneanotherinanyway. Ontheotherhand,thechangefromTesoroPetroleumCorporationtoTesoroCorporationrepresentsaminornamechange. Themajorityofcorporatenamechangesinoursamplearemajorchanges.Thepercentageofmajornamechangesforthe combinedsample,U.S.sample,andCanadiansampleis79%,78%,and81%,respectively.
Category3separatesfirmsinoil-relatedsectorsfromthoseinoil-unrelatedsectors.Thisclassificationconsidersthecore businessofcompaniesbasedonthesectorspecificationinDatastream.Ifafirm’scorebusinessisnotoil/gasproductionor oilequipmentandservice,thenthefirmisinanoil-unrelatedsector.Forexample,WilshireOilCompanyofTexaschanged itsnametoWilshireEnterprise,Inc.AccordingtothesectorclassificationofDatastream,WilshireEnterprise,Inc.isinthe realestateinvestmentandservicessector.Therefore,thisnamechangeisunderthecategoryofoil-unrelatedsectors.We hypothesizethatifacompanybelongstoanoil-relatedsector,theninvestorsarelesslikelytobelievethenamechange isartificial.Therearemorefirmsinoil-relatedsectorsthanthoseinoil-unrelatedsectorsinboththeU.S.andCanadian markets.ThedistributionismoreskewedintheCanadianmarket,as36outof38namechangesthereareinoil-related sectors.
Toexaminethewealtheffectsofnamechangesunderdifferentmarketconditions,wedivideoursampleintothree sub-periods:normaloilmarket,hotoilmarket,andthefinancialcrisisperiod.AsshowninFig.1,thecrudeoilpriceshowsa sustainableupwardtrendthatstartedfromthefirstquarterof2004.Therefore,wechooseJanuary2004asthecutoffpoint betweennormalandhotoilmarkets.Astheoilpricestartedsurgingin2004andreacheditspeakonJuly2008,weexpect thatthe2007–2009financialcrisisdidaffectinvestorsentimentsandthusinfluencedinvestors’reactiontocorporatename changes.Thereisnoconsensusonexactlywhentherecentfinancialcrisisstarted,butmostpeopleagreethatthecrisis explodedinmid-2007whenBearStearnshaltedredemptionsfortwoofitshedgefunds.Astherecentrecessiontriggered bythefinancialcrisisofficiallyendedinJune2009,wedefinethefinancialcrisisperiodasJuly2007–June2009.Toisolate thepotentialimpactofthefinancialcrisisonmarketreactiontocorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedterms,we focusonthehotoilmarketperiodthatdoesnotoverlapwiththefinancialcrisis.Therefore,ourhotoilmarketperiodstarts inJanuary2004andendsinJune2007.Forthecombinedsample,thenumberofnamechangesduringthenormalperiodis lessthanthatforthehotmarketperiod(34versus47).MoreU.S.firmschangedtheirnameduringthehotoilmarketperiod
2 MarketvalueinDatastreamisthesharepricemultipliedbythenumberofordinarysharesoutstanding.WeusetheDatastreamNorthAmericaOil&
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
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Fig.1. OilpricetrendandchangesofcorporatenameswithadditionsanddeletionsofoilfromtheirnamesintheU.S.andCanadianmarkets(fromJanuary 2000toJune2009).
thanduringthenormalperiod(35versus13),whilemoreCanadianfirmschangedtheirnamesduringthenormalperiod thanthehotmarketperiod(21versus12).ItseemsthatU.Sfirmsaremorelikelytocaptureinvestorsentimentbychanging theircorporatenamesduringthehotmarket.TimingthemarketforcorporatenamechangesisnotevidentintheCanadian market.
Fig.1showsthenumberofnamechangesaddinganddeletingtheword“oil”or“petroleum”togetherwiththetrendof crudeoilprice.Beforethefirstquarterof2004,wefindnoparticularrelationbetweenthenumberofnamechangesadding anddeletingoil-relatedterms.However,inthehotmarketperiod,thenumberofnamechangesaddingoil-relatedterms increasessubstantiallyandoutweighsthenumberofnamechangesdeletingoil-relatedterms.
Table2reportsthenumberofdifferenttypesofnamechangesduringoursampleperiod.PanelAofTable2showsthat thelargestnumberoffirmswithoil-relatednamechangesoccurredin2005,whichmaybeduetothefactthattheoilprice hitahighin2005andthendroppedfrom$77.03perbarrelinthebeginningof2006to$56.27perbarrelbyNovember2006. Therearemorenamechangeswithanadditionratherthanadeletionofoil-relatedtermsduring2003–2007.PanelBshows thatmajornamechangesoutnumberminornamechangesineachyearofoursampleperiod.PanelCshowsthatthenumber ofoil-relatednamechangesintheU.S.marketincreasessharplyin2004–2005,indicatingthat,comparedtoCanadianfirms, U.S.firmsaremorelikelytosignaltheirassociationwiththeoilindustrywhentheoilpriceissurging,whichisasignfor capturinginvestorsentiment.
3.2. Methodology
Thispaperemploysthestandardeventstudymethodology.Wecomputeabnormalreturnsinthefollowingways.First, foreachsecurityi,themarketmodelusedtocalculatefordaytis:
Ri,t=˛i+ˇiRm,t+εi,t, (1)
whereRitisthereturnforfirmiondayt,andRmtisthemarketreturnusingtheDatastreamNorthAmericaOil&Gasstock
priceindexfrom(−120,−16).Wecomputeabnormalreturns(AR)forfirmiondaytasfollows:
ARit=Rit−˛i−ˇiRmt. (2)
Wethencomputethecumulativeabnormalreturn(CARi)forfirmiforvariouseventwindowsfromt=jtot=kas:
CARi=
k
t=j
ARit. (3)
Themeancumulativeabnormalreturn(CAR)ofNfirmsis:
CAR=
Ni=1CARi
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
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Distributionofnamechangesbythecharacteristicsofthechanges.Thistablepresentsthedistributionofnamechangesbasedonthethreecategoriesas definedinTable1.PanelAshowsthedistributionofnamechangesaddinganddeletingtheword“oil”or“petroleum”;PanelBshowsthedistributionof majorandminornamechanges;andPanelCshowsthedistributionofnamechangesforfirmsinoil-related/oil-unrelatedsectors.
PanelA:addition/deletionofoil-relatedterm
Year Addition Deletion
Allfirms U.S. Canada Allfirms U.S. Canada
2000 2 0 2 6 3 3 2001 2 0 2 3 2 1 2002 4 2 2 4 1 3 2003 8 3 5 5 2 3 2004 11 7 4 3 2 1 2005 12 9 3 8 7 1 2006 7 6 1 1 1 0 2007 9 6 3 4 3 1 2008 6 5 1 8 6 2 2009Q2 2 2 0 2 2 0
PanelB:majornamechange/minornamechange
Year Majornamechange Minornamechange
Allfirms U.S. Canada Allfirms U.S. Canada
2000 8 3 5 0 0 0 2001 3 1 2 2 1 1 2002 5 3 2 3 0 3 2003 10 4 6 3 1 2 2004 10 8 2 4 1 3 2005 16 12 4 4 4 0 2006 5 5 0 3 2 1 2007 10 7 3 3 2 1 2008 14 11 3 0 0 0 2009Q2 4 4 0 0 0 0
PanelC:oil-relatedsectors/oil-unrelatedsectors
Year Oil-related Oil-unrelated
Allfirms U.S. Canada Allfirms U.S. Canada
2000 6 1 5 2 2 0 2001 4 2 2 1 0 1 2002 8 3 5 0 0 0 2003 11 3 8 2 2 0 2004 12 8 4 2 1 1 2005 15 11 4 5 5 0 2006 7 6 1 1 1 0 2007 11 7 4 2 2 0 2008 8 5 3 6 6 0 2009Q2 1 1 0 3 3 0
Thecorrespondingt-statisticsmeasuringwhetherCARissignificantlydifferentfromzeroare: t(CAR)=
CARVar(CARi)/N
,(5)
whereVar(CARi)isthevarianceofCARiamongNfirms.
4. Empiricalresults
4.1. Wealtheffectsofcorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedterms
Toavoidtheimpactofstaletradingontheestimationofabnormalreturns,weexcludefirmsthathavenotradingvolume fromday−1today+1relativetotheeventday.Wecalculateabnormalreturnsforseveneventwindows.Asillustrated inFig.1,therearemorecompaniesadding“oil”or“petroleum”totheirnamesthandeletingthemduringthehotmarket. Ifinvestorsareaffectedbycosmeticchangesincorporatenamesandmanagerstakeadvantageofinvestors’irrationality, thenweexpectthatwealtheffectsofcorporatenamechangeswouldvaryacrossdifferentmarketconditions.Therecent financialcrisismayalsohaveanimpactoninvestors’responsestocorporatenamechanges.PanelsA,B,C,andDofTable3
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
AR
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indicatethatthecoefficientissignificantatthe1%,5%,and10%levels,respectively.PanelAshowstheresultsforthefullsampleperiod;PanelsB,C,andDshowtheresultsforthenormalmarketperiod,hot marketperiod,andthefinancialcrisisperiod,respectively.
PanelA:fullsample(fromJanuary2000toJune2009) Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Combined 107 0.0782(1.45) 0.0440(1.31) 0.0134(0.24) −0.0216(−0.29) −0.2450**(−2.15) 0.1006(0.92) −0.1228(−0.85) U.S. 69 0.1333*(1.69) 0.0644(1.37) 0.0826(1.04) 0.0273(0.25) −0.2875*(−1.73) 0.2250(1.40) −0.0899(−0.42) Canada 38 −0.0219(−0.47) 0.0071(0.17) −0.1122*(−1.91) −0.1103(−1.49) −0.1677(−1.55) −0.1251(−1.36) −0.1825(−1.48)
PanelB:normalmarketperiod(fromJanuary2000toDecember2003) Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Combined 34 0.0172(0.30) 0.0379(0.41) 0.0798(0.94) 0.0439(0.38) 0.0235(0.13) 0.0990(0.60) 0.0786(0.36) U.S. 13 0.1137(1.02) 0.1322(0.61) 0.2904(1.78) 0.2320(0.85) 0.1837(0.43) 0.4780(1.28) 0.4297(0.85) Canada 21 −0.0426(−0.68) −0.0205(−0.28) −0.0506(−0.61) −0.0725(−0.85) −0.0756(−0.60) −0.1356(−1.18) −0.1387(−0.84) PanelC:hotmarketperiod(fromJanuary2004toJune2007)
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Combined 47 0.2050***(2.77) 0.0697**(2.04) 0.0635(0.93) 0.1881**(2.07) −0.0264(−0.20) 0.4628***(3.35) 0.2484(1.46) U.S. 35 0.2470***(2.55) 0.0792*(1.75) 0.1340(1.65) 0.2718**(2.54) 0.0985(0.62) 0.5980***(3.49) 0.4247*(2.02) Canada 12 0.0826(1.44) 0.0421(1.77) −0.1422(−1.32) −0.0562(−0.36) −0.3907*(−1.93) 0.0685(0.40) −0.2660(−1.28)
PanelD:financialcrisisperiod(fromJuly2007toJune2009) Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Combined 26 −0.0713(−0.46) 0.0056(0.21) −0.1640(−1.04) −0.4862**(−2.60) −0.9913***(−3.40) −0.5519*(−2.06) −1.0570***(−2.85) U.S. 21 −0.0441(−0.23) −0.0024(−0.07) −0.1319(−0.68) −0.5070**(−2.23) −1.2227***(−3.70) −0.5534*(−1.68) −1.2691***(−2.90) Canada 5 −0.1858(−1.02) 0.0392(0.93) −0.2988**(−3.87) −0.3987(−1.91) −0.0193(−0.05) −0.5453*(−2.41) −0.1659(−0.38)
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
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reporttheabnormalreturnsduringthefullsampleperiod,normaloilmarket,hotoilmarket,andthefinancialcrisisperiod, respectively.Foreachtimeperiod,wepresenttheresultsforthecombinedsample,U.S.sample,andtheCanadiansample.
PanelAofTable3showsnoevidenceofastrongmarketreactionforthefullsampleperiod.Notoneofthecombined sample,theU.S.sample,ortheCanadiansampleillustratesasignificantabnormalreturnontheeventday.Theseresultson theeventdayareconsistentwithpreviousresultsinHowe(1982),HorskyandSwyngedouw(1987),BoschandHirschey (1989)3,andKarpoffandRankine(1994),butareinconsistentwiththoseinLee(2000),Cooperetal.(2001),andCooper etal.(2005).BoththecombinedsampleandtheU.S.samplehavesignificantandnegativeCARsinthe(+1,+120)window. MostCARsfortheCanadiansamplearenegative,butonlytheoneinthe(+1,+30)windowisstatisticallysignificant.
AsshowninPanelBofTable3,whenoilpriceswererelativelystable,corporatenamechangesfailedtogeneratesignificant abnormalreturns.NoCARissignificantlydifferentfromzeroacrossalleventwindowsandallsamplesduringthenormal marketperiod.
PanelCofTable3showstotallydifferentresultsforthehotoilmarketperiod.Investorsrespondedpositivelytocorporate namechangesinvolvingoil-relatedtermswhentheoilpricewassurginginthepre-crisisperiod.Forthecombinedsample andtheU.S.sample,theabnormalreturnontheeventdayissignificantlypositive(6.97%and7.92%,respectively).The positivewealtheffectcarriesovertopost-announcementperiods;CARsforthecombinedsamplearesignificantlypositive infoureventwindows.TheU.Ssampleillustratesevenstrongerandmorepersistentpositivewealtheffects.CARsfortheU.S. samplearesignificantlypositiveinfiveoutofseveneventwindows.ThepositivelysignificantCARsinthe(−15,−1)window forboththecombinedsampleandtheU.S.sampleindicateapossibleleakageofinformationbeforetheannouncementday. ThefindingsforthecombinedsampleandtheU.S.sampleduringthehotmarketperiodareconsistentwiththeinvestor maniahypothesis.
TheresultsfortheCanadiansampleduringthehotmarketperiodaresimilartothoseforthefullsampleperiod.NoCAR fortheCanadiansampleissignificantlypositive,whileasignificantandnegativeCARisfoundinthe(+1,+120)window. Thisresultiscontrarytotheconjectureofinvestorirrationalityduringanabnormalmarketcondition.Canadianinvestors donotrespondtocorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedtermsregardlessofthemarketcondition.
TheaboveresultsillustratethatU.S.investorsandCanadianinvestorsreactdifferentlytocorporatenamechanges involv-ingoil-relatedterms.InvestorsintheU.S.reactpositivelytocorporatenamechangeswhentheoilpricesurges.However, whenthefinancialcrisisexploded,theanxietytowardoverallfinancialandeconomicstabilityseemedtooutweighthe pos-itivereactiontocorporatenamechanges.EvenastheoilpricecontinuedtosurgebetweenJuly2009andJuly2008,positive marketresponsesintheU.S.marketsvanishedwhenthistimeperiodisaddedtothehotmarketperiod4,highlightingthe
adverseimpactsofthefinancialcrisis.
Tofurtherassesstheimpactoftherecentfinancialcrisisonthewealtheffectsofcorporatenamechanges,weexamine themarketreactionduringthecrisisperiod(July2007toJune2009).TheresultsareshowninPanelDofTable3.
PanelDshowsnegativeandsignificantCARsinrelativelongeventwindowsforthecombinedsampleandtheU.S.sample, withCARssignificantlynegativeinfoureventwindows:(+1,+60),(+1,+120),(−15,+60),and(−15,+120).Thereareonly fivenamechangesfortheCanadianmarket,andsothesamplesizeisnotlargeenoughtodrawanymeaningfulconclusion. AstheoilpricecontinuedsurgingbetweenJuly2007andJuly2008,thepresenceofnegativeabnormalreturnsduringthe financialcrisisperiodimpliesthatoverallmarketsentimentduetothefinancialshockdominatedtheimpactofthesurging oilpriceontheoilindustry.
Asthefinancialcrisisintensified,increasingvolatilityanduncertaintymayhavewipedoutinvestors’optimismthatwas generatedbysurgingoilprices.Itisconceivablethatinvestorsexpectanyeconomichardshipcausedbythefinancialcrisis wouldinturnhurttheoilindustryandahighoilpriceisnotexpectedtobesustainable.Theoppositeeffectsofoil-related namechangesduringthehotmarketperiodandthefinancialcrisisperiodexplaintheinsignificantresultsforthefullsample period.
Attheoutsetofthefinancialcrisis,theoilpricewasstillsurging.Thus,whilethepessimisticeconomicoutlookandfuture uncertaintywerelikelytohavedriventhestockpricesofoilcompaniesdown,investors’behaviorof“flighttoquality’may havecontributedtosurgesincommodityprices,includingoil.However,unlikeothercommoditiessuchasgold,whichcan beusedasastorageofvalueandbeinvestedinfordiversificationpurposes,demandforoilisultimatelydeterminedby economicactivities.Astherecessionsetin,thenegativeforcesoutweighedthepositiveimpactof“flighttoquality”and oilstockpriceseventuallyfellduringthesecondhalfofthefinancialcrisis.Thismayexplainwhyoilpricesurgedatthe beginningofthecrisisperiod.Westilldocumentsignificantnegativeabnormalreturnsaroundoil-relatednamechanges duringtheperiodofJuly2007toJune2009.
Figs.2and3compareCARsfortheU.S.andCanadianfirmsduringthehotmarketperiodandthefinancialcrisisperiod, respectively.InFig.2,CARsfortheU.S.samplecontinuerisingafterthenamechangeannouncementday.Ontheotherhand, CARsfortheCanadiansamplescatteraroundzerooveralargeportionoftheeventwindow.AsshowninFig.3,duringthe financialcrisisperiod,CARsfortheU.S.sampleareslightlyabovezerowithinashortwindowaroundtheeventdateand
3 BoschandHirschey(1989)findapositivepre-announcementeffectfollowedbyanegativepost-announcementdrift.
4 Tosavespace,theresultsfortheextendedhotoilmarketperiodthatincludesaportionofthefinancialcrisisperiodarenotreported.Theresultsare
availableuponrequest.Outofthe26namechangesduringthefinancialcrisisperiod,17occurredbetweenJuly2007andJuly2008,duringwhichtheoil pricecontinuedsurging.
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
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Fig.2. CARchartsfromdays−15to+120ofcorporatenamechangeeffectsinthehotmarketperiod(fromJanuary2004toJune2007):U.S.versusCanada.
thenshowasignificantdownwarddrift.FortheCanadiansample,CARsneverriseabovezeroandthedownwardtrendis moreacutethanthatfortheU.S.samplewithintwomonthsaftertheannouncementday.
4.2. Additionversusdeletionofoil-relatedterms
Wenextexploretheimpactofthenatureofcorporatenamechanges.First,wecomparethewealtheffectsbetween corporatenamechangesaddinganddeletingoil-relatedterms.Theresultsforvarioussub-periodsarereportedinTable4. PanelAofTable4showsthatcompaniesaddingtheword“oil”or“petroleum”totheirnamesshowsignificantCARsof 13.5%and36.7%ineventwindows(−15,−1)and(−15,+60),respectively,forthecombinedsample.Incontrast,CARsfor companiesdeletingoil-relatedtermsaresignificantlynegativeinfoureventwindows.Addingoil-relatedtermsseemsto provideapositivesignalwhileadeletionconveysnegativeinformation.
Marketconditionshaveagreatimpactontheresults.ThesignificantandpositiveCARsforfirmsaddingoil-relatedterms existonlyduringthehotmarket,inwhichCARsaresignificantinfoureventwindowsincludingtheeventday.Noneofthe CARsduringthenormalmarketandthecrisisperiodaresignificantlydifferentfromzero.Similarly,thenegativemarket
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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G Model INTFIN-821; No. of Pages 20 10 H.-M. Lin et al. / Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money xxx (2015) xxx–xxx Table4AnalysisofCARsofsubcategory1:additionversusdeletionofoil-relatedterms.Thistablereportsmarket-adjustedcumulativeabnormalreturns(CARs)forCategory1:firmsadding“oil”and“petroleum”totheir namesversusfirmsdeleting“oil”and“petroleum”fromtheirnames.CARsarecalculatedforvariouseventperiodsfromJanuary2000toJune2009.EachcellreportstheaverageCARacrossallfirmsforthe respectiveeventperiod.Tstatisticsarereportedinparentheses.***,**,and*indicatethatthecoefficientissignificantatthe1%,5%,and10%levels,respectively.PanelAreportstheresultsforthecombined
sample;PanelBreportstheresultsfortheU.S.sample;andPanelCreportstheresultsfortheCanadiansample.
PanelA:combinedsample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Additions Fullsample 63 0.1350*(1.66) 0.0681(1.39) 0.0990(1.23) 0.1641(1.59) −0.0022(−0.02) 0.3672**(2.32) 0.2009(1.07) Normalmarket 16 −0.0196(−0.61) 0.0789(0.45) 0.1503(1.01) 0.2492(1.38) 0.3364(1.33) 0.3086(0.99) 0.3958(1.00) Hotmarket 35 0.2413**(2.57) 0.0844**(2.03) 0.0683(0.76) 0.2482**(2.11) −0.0467(−0.27) 0.5739***(3.26) 0.2791(1.27) Crisisperiod 12 0.0308(0.09) 0.0062(0.35) 0.1198(0.43) −0.1945(−0.57) −0.3241(−0.85) −0.1576(−0.32) −0.2872(−0.53) Deletions Fullsample 44 −0.0031(−0.05) 0.0096(0.23) −0.1091(−1.57) −0.2875***(−3.06) −0.5926***(−3.18) −0.2810**(−2.34) −0.5861***(−2.79) Normalmarket 18 0.0499(0.47) 0.0014(0.02) 0.0171(0.19) −0.1386(−0.97) −0.2546(−1.08) −0.0873(−0.62) −0.2033(−0.98) Hotmarket 12 0.0991(1.05) 0.0270(0.46) 0.0495(0.80) 0.0127(0.16) 0.0327(0.22) 0.1388(0.97) 0.1588(0.83) Crisisperiod 14 −0.1588(−1.75) 0.0051(0.10) −0.4072**(−2.68) −0.7362***(−4.33) −1.5631***(−4.14) −0.8899***(−3.69) −1.7168***(−3.75)
PanelB:U.S.sample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Additions Fullsample 40 0.2150*(1.75) 0.0901(1.17) 0.2361**(2.03) 0.2898*(1.90) 0.0418(0.21) 0.5949**(2.52) 0.3470(1.23) Normalmarket 5 −0.0658(−1.91) 0.2074(0.35) 0.7519*(2.30) 0.9509*(2.22) 1.0801(1.61) 1.0926(1.15) 1.2217(1.00) Hotmarket 25 0.3059**(2.40) 0.1031*(1.80) 0.1493*(1.33) 0.3550**(2.46) 0.0724(0.33) 0.7640***(3.38) 0.4814(1.68) Crisisperiod 10 0.1281(0.34) −0.0011(−0.06) 0.1951(0.59) −0.2036(−0.49) −0.5536(−1.33) −0.0766(−0.13) −0.4266(−0.68) Deletions Fullsample 29 0.0206(0.26) 0.0289(0.81) −0.1291(−1.46) −0.3348**(−2.68) −0.7419***(−2.77) −0.2853*(−1.78) −0.6924**(−2.32) Normalmarket 8 0.2259(1.31) 0.0852(1.57) 0.0021(0.03) −0.2173(−0.85) −0.3765(−0.80) 0.0939(0.73) −0.0654(−0.22) Hotmarket 10 0.0997(0.90) 0.0194(0.28) 0.0960(1.58) 0.0639(0.82) 0.1638(1.24) 0.1830(1.25) 0.2829(1.50) Crisisperiod 11 −0.2006(−1.78) −0.0035(−0.06) −0.4292**(−2.23) −0.7828***(−3.86) −1.8309***(−4.12) −0.9869***(−3.41) −2.0350***(−3.77)
PanelC:Canadasample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Additions Fullsample 23 −0.0042(−0.08) 0.0298*(1.86) −0.1395**(−2.19) −0.0545(−0.64) −0.0788(−0.55) −0.0289(−0.30) −0.0532(−0.37) Normalmarket 11 0.0014(0.03) 0.0205(0.77) −0.1231(−1.78) −0.0697(−0.94) −0.0016(−0.01) −0.0477(−0.58) 0.0203(0.13) Hotmarket 10 0.0799(1.23) 0.0375(1.66) −0.1340(−1.04) −0.0188(−0.10) −0.3443(−1.45) 0.0986(0.52) −0.2269(−0.97) Crisisperiod 2 −0.4560(−1.01) 0.0427(0.87) −0.2570(−5.75) −0.1490(−1.09) 0.8235(1.40) −0.5623(−2.12) 0.4102(0.41) Deletions Fullsample 15 −0.0490(−0.57) −0.0278(−0.27) −0.0703(−0.61) −0.1959(−1.45) −0.3039*(−1.86) −0.2726(−1.56) −0.3807(−1.75) Normalmarket 10 −0.0910(−0.73) −0.0657(−0.43) 0.0291(0.18) −0.0757(−0.46) −0.1570(−0.73) −0.2323(−1.03) −0.3137(−1.04) Hotmarket 2 0.0962(0.58) 0.0652(0.56) −0.1829(−1.27) −0.2435(−0.81) −0.6227(−1.91) −0.0821(−0.14) −0.4613(−0.76) Crisisperiod 3 −0.0057−0.15) 0.0368(0.51) −0.3267−2.42) −0.5651(−1.75) −0.5811(−1.91) −0.5340(−1.39) −0.5500(−1.51)
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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H.-M.Linetal./Int.Fin.Markets,Inst.andMoneyxxx(2015)xxx–xxx 11 responsesrelatedtothedeletionofoil-relatedtermsoccuronlyduringthecrisisperiod.CARsduringthecrisisperiodare significantlynegativeinthelastfiveeventwindows.
AsfortheU.S.firms,PanelBofTable4showsthatadding“oil”or“petroleum”tocompanynamesincursmorepositive wealtheffectsthanthecombinedsample.PositiveCARsareevidentduringallsamplingperiods,exceptforthefinancial crisisperiod.Thestrongestpositivemarketreactionisfoundduringthehotmarketperiod,inwhichCARsaresignificantly greaterthanzeroinfoureventwindows.Asmorethan71%ofthe35U.S.namechangesduringthehotmarketperiodadd oil-relatedterms,theseresultsareconsistentwiththeconjecturethatmanagerstrytobenefitfrominvestorsentimentby addingoil-relatedtermstotheircorporatenameswhentheoilmarketishot.
Duringthenormalmarket,U.S.firmsaddingoil-relatedtermstotheirnamealsoshowapositivemarketreactionwithin 2monthsaftertheeventdate.Theresultsforfirmsdeletingoil-relatedtermsareparalleltothoseforthecombinedsample. Deletionsofoil-relatedtermsareassociatedwithasignificantandnegativemarketreactionduringthefullsamplingperiod andthefinancialcrisisperiod.
TheCanadiansampleshowsnoevidenceofanysignificantmarketreactionregardlessofaddingofdeletinganoil-related term.AsshowninPanelCofTable4,forthefullsampleperiod,Canadianfirmsaddingoil-relatedtermshaveasignificant andpositiveabnormalreturnontheeventday,butitquicklyrevertsandshowsasignificantCARof−13.95%inthe(+1,+30) window.Moreover,CARsforotherperiodsareinsignificant.Similarresultsarefoundforthedeletioncases.
ResultsinTable4suggestthattheU.S.markettreatsanadditionof“oil”or“petroleum”tocorporatenamesasamajor signal,whileadeletionof“oil”or“petroleum”fromcompanynamesconveyslessimportantinformationduringthehot marketperiod.However,therecentfinancialcrisisnullifiedthepositivewealtheffects ofaddingoil-relatedtermsand intensifiedtheadversewealtheffectsofdeletingoil-relatedterms.
4.3. Majorversusminornamechanges
Table5presentstheresultsformajorandminornamechanges.AsPanelAofTable5showsforthecombinedsample, majornamechangesyieldpositivewealtheffectsonlyduringthehotmarketperiod.Significantandpositiveabnormal returnsarefoundinthepre-announcementeventwindowandontheeventdate;thepositivewealtheffectlastsupto60 daysaftertheeventday.Bycontrast,CARsofmajornamechangesaresignificantlynegativeinfoureventwindowsduring thefinancialcrisisperiod.Investorsdonotrespondtominornamechangesacrossdifferenttimeperiods.Thesignificant CARsduringthehotmarketandthecrisisperiodssupporttheclaimthatmajornamechangesconveystrongerinformation. However,amajornamechangewasreceivedasapositivesignalwhentheoilpricesurged,butanegativesignalwhenthe financialcrisisexploded.Thisfurtherindicatesthattheoverallmarketsentimentcausedbyaforcefulshocksuchasthe recentfinancialcrisisplaysadominantroleindetermininginvestors’responsetocorporatenamechanges.
PanelBofTable5showssimilarpatternsofCARsfortheU.S.sampleasforthecombinedsample,exceptthatminorname changesintheU.S.marketalsogeneratepositiveCARsinfoureventwindowsduringthehotmarketperiod.Theresultsfor thecombinedsamplearedrivenbytheresultsoftheU.S.sample.PanelCshowsthatduringthefullsampleperiod,Canadian firmsannouncingamajornamechangehaveasignificantandpositiveabnormalreturnontheeventday,butthepositive reactionisnotsustainable.Therelativesmallsamplesizemakesithardtodrawanyconclusionforothersampleperiods. Nevertheless,thereisnosignofsignificantandpositivereturnsinmostofthecases.
4.4. Oil-relatedsectorsversusoil-unrelatedsectors
Table6presentsresultsforfirmsintheoil-related/oil-unrelatedsectors.PanelAofTable6showsthatforthecombined sample,investorsrespondpositivelytonamechangesoffirmsinoil-relatedsectorsonlyduringthehotmarketperiodin whichCARsaresignificantlypositivein4eventwindows.Noneofthecoefficientsduringthenormalperiodandthefinancial crisisperiodaresignificant.Ontheotherhand,significantandnegativeCARsarefoundforfirmsinoil-unrelatedsectors duringthefullsampleperiodandthecrisisperiod,withstrongerevidenceduringthefinancialcrisisperiod.Forfirmsinthe oil-unrelatedsector,CARsaresignificantlynegativeinfiveeventwindowsduringthecrisisperiod.
AsshowninPanelB,resultsfortheU.S.sampleareparalleltothoseofthecombinedsample.Thepositivewealtheffects forfirmsinoil-relatedsectorsarestrongandpersistentduringthehotmarketperiod.Similarly,namechangesoffirmsin oil-unrelatedsectorsleadtoanegativemarketreaction,withthenegativeresponsesmoreacuteduringthecrisisperiod. Sinceonly2Canadianfirmsthathaveoil-relatednamechangesareinoil-unrelatedsectors,theclassificationofan oil-related/oil-unrelatedsectorhasnosignificantinfluenceonpreviousresultsfortheCanadiansample.PanelCindicatesthat investorsinCanadianstocksarelargelyunresponsivetocorporatenamechangesregardlessofthenaturesofnamechanges.
4.5. Cross-sectionalanalysisofthedeterminantofcorporatenamechangeeffects
Theprecedinganalysissuggeststhatmarketsrespondfavorablytocorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedterms duringthehotmarketperiodforthecombinedsampleandtheU.S.sample.However,theaboveanalysesexaminethewealth
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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G Model INTFIN-821; No. of Pages 20 12 H.-M. Lin et al. / Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money xxx (2015) xxx–xxx Table5AnalysisofCARsofsubcategory2:majorversusminornamechanges.Thistablereportsmarket-adjustedcumulativeabnormalreturns(CARs)forsubcategory2:majorversusminornamechanges.CARsare calculatedforvariouseventperiodsfromJanuary2000toJune2009.EachcellreportstheaverageCARacrossallfirmsfortherespectiveeventperiod.Tstatisticsarereportedinparentheses.***,**,and*indicate
thatthecoefficientissignificantatthe1%,5%,and10%levels,respectively.PanelAreportstheresultsforthecombinedsample;PanelBreportstheresultsfortheU.S.sample;andPanelCreportstheresultsfor theCanadiansample.
PanelA:combinedsample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Major Fullsample 85 0.0987(1.49) 0.0654(1.69) 0.0093(0.14) −0.0681(−0.77) −0.3186(−2.38) 0.0959(0.73) −0.1545(−0.89) Normalmarket 26 0.0124(0.17) 0.0951(0.88) 0.0760(0.75) 0.0340(0.22) 0.0124(0.05) 0.1415(0.68) 0.1199(0.43) Hotmarket 35 0.2727***(2.92) 0.0902*(1.99) 0.0749(0.90) 0.1600(1.64) −0.1029(−0.71) 0.5229***(3.14) 0.2599(1.28) Crisisperiod 24 −0.0617(−0.37) −0.0030(−0.11) −0.1586(−0.93) −0.5114**(−2.54) −0.9916***(−3.18) −0.5761*(−1.99) −1.0562**(−2.66) Minor Fullsample 22 −0.0009(−0.02) −0.0384(−0.60) 0.0293(0.35) 0.1582(1.27) 0.0394(0.21) 0.1189(0.77) 0.0000(0.00) Normalmarket 8 0.0328(0.39) −0.1482(−0.85) 0.0922(0.60) 0.0762(0.92) 0.0598(0.43) −0.0392(−0.20) −0.0556(−0.22) Hotmarket 12 0.0076(0.10) 0.0102(0.61) 0.0304(0.26) 0.2698(1.23) 0.1969(0.66) 0.2876(1.17) 0.2147(0.67) Crisisperiod 2 −0.1871(−1.44) 0.1088(1.55) −0.2289(−1.35) −0.1831(−1.45) −0.9876(−1.13) −0.2614(−0.80) −1.0659(−0.99)
PanelB:U.S.sample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Major Fullsample 58 0.1573*(1.70) 0.0741(1.33) 0.0746(0.80) −0.0465(−0.38) −0.3951**(−2.12) 0.1850(1.00) −0.1637(−0.67) Normalmarket 11 0.1130(0.85) 0.1444(0.56) 0.3460*(1.84) 0.2624(0.81) 0.2349(0.47) 0.5197(1.17) 0.4922(0.82) Hotmarket 27 0.3144**(2.66) 0.1037*(1.78) 0.1071(1.05) 0.1762(1.51) −0.0625(−0.36) 0.5943***(2.87) 0.3556(1.41) Crisisperiod 20 −0.0304(−0.15) −0.0044(−0.13) −0.1186(−0.58) −0.5169**(−2.16) −1.1905***(−3.44) −0.5517(−1.59) −1.2254**(−2.67) Minor Fullsample 11 0.0068(0.07) 0.0128(0.91) 0.1247(1.41) 0.4161*(2.16) 0.2795(0.86) 0.4358*(1.83) 0.2992(0.81) Normalmarket 2 0.1180(4.85) 0.0653(1.04) −0.0148(−0.15) 0.0650**(20.84) −0.0979(−0.98) 0.2483(2.96) 0.0855*(6.78) Hotmarket 8 0.0195(0.16) −0.0035(−0.35) 0.2249**(2.53) 0.5946**(2.55) 0.6420*(2.01) 0.6106*(2.08) 0.6580(1.75) Crisisperiod 1 −0.3170 0.0386 −0.3978 −0.3096 −1.8654 −0.5880 −2.1438
PanelC:Canadasample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Major Fullsample 27 −0.0273(−0.45) 0.0465*(2.01) −0.1309(−2.17) −0.1146(−1.24) −0.1542(−1.14) −0.0954(−0.84) −0.1349(−0.90) Normalmarket 15 −0.0613(−0.79) 0.0590(1.54) −0.1220(−1.50) −0.1335(−1.22) −0.1508(−0.95) −0.1359(−1.03) −0.1532(−0.78) Hotmarket 8 0.1320(1.69) 0.0443(1.53) −0.0338(−0.28) 0.1056(0.59) −0.2393(−0.93) 0.2819(1.41) −0.0630(−0.24) Crisisperiod 4 −0.2180(−0.94) 0.0042(0.14) −0.3585**(−5.68) −0.4842(−1.97) 0.0034(0.01) −0.6979**(−3.24) −0.2104(−0.37) Minor Fullsample 11 −0.0087(−0.14) −0.0897(−0.69) −0.0662(−0.46) −0.0997(−0.80) −0.2008(−1.09) −0.1981(−1.28) −0.2992(−1.37) Normalmarket 6 0.0044(0.04) −0.2194(−0.96) 0.1279(0.62) 0.0799(0.71) 0.1124(0.61) −0.1351(−0.54) −0.1026(−0.30) Hotmarket 4 −0.0161(−0.30) 0.0376(0.79) −0.3588(−1.92) −0.3799(−1.48) −0.6933(−2.26) −0.3584(−1.62) −0.6718*(−2.54) Crisisperiod 1 −0.0572 0.1790 −0.0599 −0.0566 −0.1099 0.0653 0.0120
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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G Model INTFIN-821; No. of Pages 20 H.-M. Lin et al. / Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money xxx (2015) xxx–xxx 13 Table6AnalysisofCARsofsubcategory3:oil-relatedsectorsversusoil-unrelatedsectors.Thistablereportsmarket-adjustedcumulativeabnormalreturns(CARs)forsubcategory3:firmsinoil-relatedsectorsversusfirms inoil-unrelatedsectors.CARsarecalculatedforvariouseventperiodsfromJanuary2000toJune2010.EachcellreportstheaverageCARacrossallfirmsfortherespectiveeventperiod.Tstatisticsarereportedin parentheses.***,**,and*indicatethatthecoefficientissignificantatthe1%,5%,and10%levels,respectively.PanelAreportstheresultsforthecombinedsample;PanelBreportstheresultsfortheU.S.sample;
andPanelCreportstheresultsfortheCanadiansample.
PanelA:combinedsample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Oil-related Fullsample 83 0.0529(1.12) 0.0421(1.02) 0.0874(1.58) 0.1035(1.33) −0.0332(−0.31) 0.1985*(1.78) 0.0618(0.44) Normalmarket 29 −0.0155(−0.34) 0.0180(0.17) 0.0150(0.19) 0.0317(0.29) 0.1369(0.85) 0.0342(0.18) 0.1393(0.58) Hotmarket 38 0.1779**(2.18) 0.0716*(1.97) 0.1015(1.33) 0.2548**(2.53) 0.0006(0.00) 0.5043***(3.44) 0.2500(1.28) Crisisperiod 16 −0.1200(−1.10) 0.0156(0.81) 0.1853(1.04) −0.1256(−0.50) −0.4215(−1.44) −0.2300(−0.83) −0.5259(−1.64) Oil-unrelated Fullsample 24 0.1657(0.93) 0.0508(1.06) −0.2425(−1.62) −0.4542**(−2.60) −0.9776***(−3.13) −0.2377(−0.81) −0.7610*(−1.87) Normalmarket 5 0.2071(0.67) 0.1531(1.99) 0.4555(1.33) 0.1146(0.22) −0.6340(−0.83) 0.4749(1.88) −0.2737(−0.51) Hotmarket 9 0.3195(1.79) 0.0621(0.64) −0.0967(−0.65) −0.0939(−0.48) −0.1403(−0.51) 0.2878(0.74) 0.2413(0.67) Crisisperiod 10 0.0066(0.02) −0.0104(−0.16) −0.7228***(−3.67) −1.0630***(−6.57) −1.9029***(−3.91) −1.0668*(−2.07) −1.9067**(−2.48)
PanelB:U.S.sample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Oil-related Fullsample 47 0.1077(1.45) 0.0721(1.11) 0.2350***(2.90) 0.2653**(2.21) 0.0239(0.14) 0.4451**(2.55) 0.2037(0.90) Normalmarket 9 0.0165(0.47) 0.1052(0.33) 0.1914(1.29) 0.3164(1.09) 0.4697(1.04) 0.4381(0.82) 0.5914(0.84) Hotmarket 27 0.2188*(1.95) 0.0884*(1.76) 0.1801*(1.88) 0.3570***(2.92) 0.1312(0.69) 0.6641***(3.58) 0.4383*(1.74) Crisisperiod 11 −0.0901(−0.64) 0.0049(0.23) 0.4054(1.77) −0.0015(0.00) −0.6043(−1.60) −0.0868(−0.22) −0.6895(−1.63) Oil-unrelated Fullsample 22 0.1879(0.97) 0.0479(0.92) −0.2430(−1.51) −0.4812**(−2.58) −0.9529**(−2.79) −0.2453(−0.76) −0.7170(−1.62) Normalmarket 4 0.3326(0.92) 0.1929(2.27) 0.5134(1.18) 0.0422(0.06) −0.4599(−0.48) 0.5677(1.87) 0.0657(0.12) Hotmarket 8 0.3422(1.70) 0.0483(0.44) −0.0215(−0.15) −0.0156(−0.08) −0.0118(−0.04) 0.3750(0.87) 0.3787(1.00) Crisisperiod 10 0.0066(0.02) −0.0104(−0.16) −0.7228***(−3.67) −1.0630***(−6.57) −1.9029***(−3.91) −1.0668*(−2.07) −1.9067**(−2.48)
PanelC:Canadasample
Eventperiod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subcategory N −15to−1 0 +1to+30 +1to+60 +1to+120 −15to+60 −15to+120 Oil-related Fullsample 36 −0.0187(−0.39) 0.0029(0.07) −0.1053(−1.78) −0.1077(−1.44) −0.1076(−1.02) −0.1235(−1.28) −0.1235(−1.02) Normalmarket 20 −0.0299(−0.46) −0.0213(−0.28) −0.0644(−0.74) −0.0964(−1.11) −0.0129(−0.11) −0.1476(−1.23) −0.0641(−0.41) Hotmarket 11 0.0776(1.24) 0.0303(1.34) −0.0916(−0.88) 0.0041(0.03) −0.3200(−1.54) 0.1120(0.61) −0.2121(−0.96) Crisisperiod 5 −0.1858(−1.02) 0.0392(0.93) −0.2988**(−3.87) −0.3987(−1.91) −0.0193(−0.05) −0.5453*(−2.41) −0.1659(−0.38) Oil-unrelated Fullsample 2 −0.0785(−0.36) 0.0831(0.93) −0.2370(−0.51) −0.1580(−0.28) −1.2492**(−15.39) −0.1534(−0.60) −1.2446(−3.22) Normalmarket 1 −0.2949 −0.0060 0.2241 0.4043 −1.3303 0.1034 −1.6312 Hotmarket 1 0.1380 0.1721 −0.6981 −0.7202 −1.1680 −0.4101 −0.8579 Crisisperiod 0
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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G ModelINTFIN-821; No.ofPages20
14 H.-M.Linetal./Int.Fin.Markets,Inst.andMoneyxxx(2015)xxx–xxx
effectsofdifferenttypesofnamechangesoneatatimeanddonotcontrolforotherpossibledeterminingfactors.Toaddress this,werunthefollowingregressionstotestthedeterminantsofabnormalreturnsofvariouseventperiods:
CAR0=ˇ0+ˇ1Dc+ˇ2D1+ˇ3D2+ˇ4D3+ˇ5DP+ˇ6AVR0+ˇ7LMV0+ε0 (6A)
CAR(−15,+60)=ˇ0+ˇ1Dc+ˇ2D1+ˇ3D2+ˇ4D3+ˇ5DP+ˇ6AVR0+ˇ7LMV0+ε0 (6B)
CAR(−15,+120)=ˇ0+ˇ1Dc+ˇ2D1+ˇ3D2+ˇ4D3+ˇ5DP+ˇ6AVR0+ˇ7LMV0+ε0. (6C)
Thedependentvariablesaretheabnormalreturnsontheannouncementday(CAR0)andcumulativeabnormalreturns
fortheeventwindows(−15,+60)and(−15,+120).Here,Dcequals1forU.S.firmsand0forCanadianfirms.D1equals1
fornamechangesthataddtheword“oil”or“petroleum”and0fordeletingoil-relatedterms.D2equals1formajorname
changesand0forminornamechanges.D3equals1forfirmsinoil-relatedsectorsand0forfirmsinoil-unrelatedsectors.
Dpequals1fornamechangesduringthepre-crisisperiodand0forchangesduringthefinancialcrisisperiod.AVR0isthe
abnormalvolumeratioontheeventday.AVR0equalsthetradingvolumeofafirmontheeventdaydividedbytheaverage
volumeofthefirm’stradingvolumeovertheperiodfromday−100today−16.LMV0isthenaturallogarithmoftheequity
marketvalueontheeventday.WealsoestimatetheaboveregressionsfortheU.S.andCanadianmarketsseparatelywithout thedummyvariable,Dc.Intotal,nineregressionmodelsareestimated:threeforthecombinedsamplewithDc,threefor
theU.S.sample,andthreefortheCanadiansample.
Table7liststheregressionresults.Models1,2,and3presenttheresultsforabnormalreturnsontheeventdate(CAR0).
Mostofthecoefficientsoftheindependentvariablesareinsignificantwithafewexceptions.Forthecombinedsampleand theU.S.sample,abnormaltradingvolume(AVR0)issignificantlyandnegativelyassociatedwithCAR0.However,noneof
thedummyvariablesareabletoexplainthevolatilityoftheabnormalreturnsontheannouncementday.Theseresultsare consistentwithourpreviousfindinginTable3inthatabnormalreturnsontheeventdayforthecombinedsamplearenot significantlydifferentfromzero.Thelackofsignificantabnormalreturnsontheeventdateexplainsourinsignificantresults ofModel1throughModel3.
Model4showsasignificantandpositivecoefficientonDc,indicatingthattheannouncementeffectsofrelevantname
changesfortheeventwindow(−15,+60)intheU.S.aresignificantlyhigherthanthoseinCanada.Thissupportsourprevious findingthatinvestorsinCanadianstocksarelessresponsivetooil-relatednamechangescomparedtothoseintheU.S.The coefficientsofD1ofModels4and5indicatethataddinganoil-relatedtermtoacorporatenamehasapositiveimpact
onCAR(−15,+60).Aftercontrollingforotherfactors,westillfindthattheadditionofoil-relatedtermsgeneratesalarger
wealtheffectthanthedeletionofoil-relatedtermsforthecombinedsampleandtheU.Ssample.However,thecategoryof major/minorandoil-related/oil-unrelatedsectorscannotexplainthevariationofthewealtheffects.FortheCanadiansample (Model6),noneofthecoefficientsofthedummyvariablesfornamechangescharacteristicsaresignificant.ForModels4,5, and6,thecoefficientsofDpareallsignificantlypositive,reinforcingthepreviousfindingthatpositivemarketreactionsare
foundonlyforthepre-crisisperiod.ThisfindingisconsistentwiththeresultsinTable3.ThecoefficientsofAVR0andLMV0
areinsignificant.
Models7,8,and9presenttheresultsforCAR(−15,+120),whicharesimilartothoseforCAR(−15,+60)(Models4–6).Significant
andpositiveimpactsofaddingoil-relatedtermsandforthepre-crisisperiodonCARsarefoundforthecombinedsample andtheU.S.sample.FortheCanadiansample,mostofthecoefficientsofindependentvariablesareinsignificant.These resultsareconsistentwiththefindingsinprevioustables—thatis,investorsinCanadianstocksarelargelyunresponsiveto oil-relatednamechangesregardlessofthenatureofnamechangesandthelengthofeventwindows.
5. Discussion
Wefinddifferentwealtheffectsofoil-relatednamechangesfortheU.S.andCanadianmarkets.Thissectiondiscusses possiblereasonsforthedifferences.PreviousstudiesdocumentthreemajordifferencesbetweentheU.S.andCanadianequity markets:(1)Canadianequitymarketsaredominatedbyresourcefirms,especiallyoilandgasfirms;(2)Canadianmarkets arelessliquidthanU.S.markets;and(3)stockownershipismoreconcentratedinCanadathanintheU.S.Webelievethese characteristicsmaypartiallyexplaindifferentmarketreactionstocorporatenamechangesinvolvingoil-relatedterms.
TheoilandgasindustryplaysadominantroleinCanada’seconomyandequitymarkets.Nicholls(2006)reportsthatoil andgascompaniesaccountfor27%intotalmarketcapitalizationand11%inthenumberoffirmslistedontheTorontoStock Exchange(TSX).IntheTSXVentureExchange,oilandgascompaniesaccountfor25%intotalmarketcapitalizationand13% inthenumberoffirmslisted.Investorfamiliarityandextensivemediacoverageabouttheoilandgasindustrymayexplain whyinvestorsdonotreactenthusiasticallytocosmeticoil-relatedcorporatenamechanges.
During1980,infrequenttradingwasamajorproblemintheCanadianequitymarkets.Itwasreportedthatonly4.3% ofstockslistedonTSEtradedonthelastdayofeachmonth,and58%hadnotradesforatleastonemonth.Weexpect investorsinarelativelyilliquidmarketwillbelessresponsivetonewinformation.Anilliquidmarketischaracterizedby highertransactioncosts,whichhinderpromptresponsestonewinformation.Therefore,itisnotsurprisingtofindthat investorsinCanadianstocksarelessresponsivetooil-relatednamechangescomparedtothoseintheU.S.markets,which arehighlyliquidandinvestorstradeactivelyonthearrivalofnewinformation.
Stockownershipalsoaffectsthewealtheffectsofcorporatenamechanges.Previousstudies(RaoandLee-Sing,1995; MorckandStangeland,1994)reportthatstockownershipishighlyconcentratedinCanada.Inparticular,oneorasmallgroup
Please cite this article in press as: Lin, H.-M., et al., The wealth effects of oil-related name changes on stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. J. Int. Financ. Markets Inst. Money (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.07.003
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G Model INTFIN-821; No. of Pages 20 H.-M. Lin et al. / Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money xxx (2015) xxx–xxx 15 Table7Cross-sectionalregressionsofCAR.Thistablereportsresultsoffollowingregression:CAR=ˇ0+ˇ1Dc+ˇ2D1+ˇ3D2+ˇ4D3+ˇ5Dp+ˇ6AVR0+ˇ7LMV0+ε.ThedependentvariableisCAR0,orCAR(−15.+60)orCAR(−15,+120)
forcompaniesthatundergoanamechangeinvolvinganoil-relatedterm.Dcequals1fortheU.S.firmsand0forCanadianfirms.D1equals1fornamechangesthataddtheword“oil”or“petroleum”and0for
deletingthem.D2equals1formajornamechangesand0forminornamechanges.D3equals1forfirmsinoil-relatedsectorsand0forfirmsinoil-unrelatedsectors.Dpequals1forchangesfromJanuary2000to
June2007and0otherwise.AVR0istheabnormalvolumeratioontheeventday,whichiscalculatedinsectionD.LMV0isthenaturallogarithmoftheequitymarketvalueontheeventday.Eachcellreportsthe
averageabnormalvolumeacrossallfirmsfortherespectiveeventwindows.Tstatisticsarereportedinparentheses.***,**,and*indicatethatthecoefficientissignificantatthe1%,5%,and10%levels,respectively. Variable Model1
(Combinedsample) CAR0
Model2(U.S.)CAR0 Model3(Canada)
CAR0 Model4(Combined sample)CAR(−15,+60) Model5(U.S.) CAR(−15,+60) Model6(Canada) CAR(−15,+60) Model7(Combined sample)CAR(−15,+120) Model8(U.S.) CAR(−15,+120 Model9(Canada) CAR(−15,+120) Intercept −0.0503(−0.44) −0.0546(−0.35) −0.0700(−0.29) −0.8540**(−2.37) −0.8700(−1.63) −1.1328**(−2.21) −1.7689***(−3.75) −1.9260***(−2.78) −1.7722**(−2.57) Dc 0.0992(1.42) 0.6006**(2.69) 0.4593(1.57) D1 0.0763(1.08) 0.0853(0.82) 0.0708(0.81) 0.5082**(2.33) 0.7165**(2.15) 0.2279(1.23) 0.6156**(2.17) 0.8823**(2.05) 0.3196(1.29) D2 0.1315(1.65) 0.1155(0.95) 0.1714*(1.73) 0.0187(0.07) −0.0767(−0.18) 0.1340(0.64) −0.0045(−0.01) −0.0289(−0.05) 0.0206(0.07) D3 −0.0172(−0.19) −0.0163(−0.15) −0.1397(−0.74) 0.2837(1.05) 0.2168(0.61) −0.0134(−0.03) 0.4376(1.25) 0.1895(0.42) 0.9937*(1.85) DP 0.0840(1.07) 0.1468(1.45) 0.0311(0.23) 0.8442***(3.45) 0.9609***(2.89) 0.7155**(2.43) 1.1099***(3.47) 1.4308***(3.29) 0.2236(0.56) AVR0 −0.0003***(−4.64) −0.0003***(−4.38) 0.0014(1.48) −0.0002(−0.80) −0.0002(−0.86) 0.0032(1.54) −0.0001(−0.46) −0.0002(−0.55) 0.0012(0.44) LMV0 −0.0139(−1.14) −0.0276(−1.61) −0.0022(−0.12) 0.0036(0.10) −0.0199(−0.38) 0.0431(1.09) 0.1077**(2.29) 0.0979(1.48) 0.0814(1.52) AdjR2 0.2304 0.3010 0.1459 0.2252 0.2438 0.2294 0.2252 0.2840 0.2242 N 93 56 31 99 62 31 99 62 31