• 沒有找到結果。

公司流動性之決定因素

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "公司流動性之決定因素"

Copied!
18
0
0

加載中.... (立即查看全文)

全文

(1)". 1E:~*fU. ~tt1i~. ~=W:J. i!. ~ a] )fa fh 'Ii. ~ iA Jt'1i. ~ 1.­ F!~~**. F!~i!* 'itfJ"§. it '. )cil:@LU~liJf3i:iN~. ~'liJf3i:~H !f ' .MU5*~7tm ffi'*E~Wij!1i. ;fl2j -t­ OO~~ijt*~~ft~11fiJ;'U&:IJJ'~r.!{l¥Jffiff'; . iY~l?1tlJJtE~~!IWHI[~lHI~ 0EJ Blltl¥J , 3tf1irfi · m:fimlJJ~o.~fiii: • ~1~iHijmIMo3tf1Jm:flJ ' f.l1Jt~~ 0. SEU;l:Jt1lt: ~{I~~~U~m:il2:l¥J~f~6b 0. EJiI~m:il2:ffif. · ~0EJ:ff~~.fWt:il2:ffif · ~.m:fi~:ffflm~ ; · lifilit~.tiJ-m:ff{l~~t)'~J&t5l:il2: • f§.tiW:fffl~~j~JlfljffgjJ{J£. ·~:ff*~~*Y~~0EJ~~~~ffi~m~I¥J~OO~.·~~·~~~~~l¥Jm:il2:. EJI¥J*~it~ffi~m~. • 0EJ;sfmittl5E~{~l¥Jttmtl'ti~~ , ::ffiil3Jt).. '~~fi:il2:~~::f.I¥J~~'~:ff~~~~~~~~§e·*liJf~~§1¥J. Tobit ~M7HJT$t)..mliJf~ft[fJ.1.m0 EJmlJJ;ti~~5E'ti129~· .mliJf~*E*~m(l). ~''§Fi\7*I¥J~jI""f. ' IJ\0 EJ{ljrtu~~~~mt:IJJ;tiiiii:t)'~ff!**m:Jil¥Jfi:il2:flIJ* • (2). ,f-lf,..m+1'K10EJ ' {ljrtu~~~~mlJJ'tiii'ii:t)'~{J£**m:il2:mJt~::fnt5E'ti· (3). ii:¥&MI$~UJ1;.t'" · 0 EJ{J.)ftJ{rtu~~.t~i:il2:m:ii~mtlJJ'ti. rBJfI~i:l]. : t1ElJJfi~J.!l! '. m:il2:&:ffflm~. , Tobit ilmM5tfJT$. ~-t!iIl*IjJ.l~j;~m~:ltil&m*~t'!'H~*MU~f§l. ~:ltiI&m*~t'!'~t~* 1t±IH. -. 173 ­. fI. ~. I ~.

(2) 1E:~H*f~. ~tr1i~. '*' " ~-''lL R'J a mtltJ'Ij:1£:L}~l¥J*~~~f!irpIDl]i[~It~l¥Jftjts. ' :L}~&,~J[*fIf-~H~~l¥JmtJ!trlj:tJ Z ~~~**l¥Jt)t1i~l* • JJbiz:W:fffJr~3:fj&mtltJ'lj:ib~Jl¥J1i~ · f.f:ff~ 3:f'~~~0~~~~~~~l¥J1i~~*o&Z'B~z~~l¥J~~W:ffm~3:f' iID~~"1'.l¥Jffi!Z.. · ~7!tI~$tlM~{ft . ~~~~~tfifBf! ' lt~fjUM • ~Itt · :L} f.fj@:I;zffl.~W:ffm~3:f · ~fiEEfJl~ZmtAWmtl±l · *&~:L}~~.z~flJ11(~~iii¥ ' ifi¥:M ' 1999 : Ji~~ . 1998 ; ftfi ' fIlmHi • 1996) • -IN:ffiJ s ' :L}~f.f:fffJ!~ZEl f~~~~!JziIi*(I)~~11i1i*: f.f:ff~~.Lj~blB~x~Z?ffili (2)JJiItti'lj:iIi*: +ffl.~.Ljfi1'lf-JziIi (3)t!>tf!'lj:iIi* : f.f:ff-~ij!~ , tJ@!tn-.fJrlf-JllfIJ~IiRfl~1iJl filHI11i1i* : ~bljHfTfltn-f¥~ifJip~*lf.ff.fJE~~Z~*l(Kim, Mauer and Sherman 1998 : ~~mt . 1999) 0. 0. 0. 0. ~~.~~~Lm:L}~z1ifl'tJ~~88~~~~'*~~z~~'mtltJ111iJl. 1i~tt2¥~~ 3.95% ' ffijJi;~j{Ij~~ 20.2% · ffi*~~ 21.2% . *I.i&i~zf:ft~ , ~:A:lfij:.M.""" ft!ikm1i~tt~~~. 30.13% ••f!~Z!J"t7I::'~ 11.61% • ::fi'ft~z~ft~~ 25.68% · 16.60% · rpil~j{Ij~~ 46%· M~zrp.M ,mtltJ'Ij:1i~ft!ikm1i~tt2¥*3~ 30. ffiJ-=:'.!;r-l:1f[G( 1.38% • W>JLf9IJ-T~fM1'G(~fi~ , ret~mtltJ111i~j&.tn-fg" 'mCiN":I. ,. ~~:... ~..o: . . .--:. ~}'~5I,E: ~,. "'1. ~'@~W:ff~:L}~~~~*lf.f~~l¥JmtltJ111i~;ffijmtltJ111iJl~~'x Ml¥Jffi!Z~. , {§j~~fiiJ:ff~:L} ~-ru~m*lf.f~1J"l¥JmtltJ111i~ , ~fiiJ~*~.:L} ~~ilihM:::;2S*. ~?. tJ~.~§~l¥J~~@~:L}~~~'ft~~79~12~If-J'EEtn-~~~1i~m,. *~J.3ZJLZ~lf-Jl&m )jt@,:~1i~m!M. ' tJ~~7!~1f-J.l±li~Pff~l¥J~~fl~-~$!JWJl¥J~WJ1i~ , ' .Il0~x~1i~r~l¥Jffl~~ , id*MJ~tfJ~l¥J0~~~mg~][~~JI. ~'~~87~~ili~~~7~fi~*ftl¥J~fJr'1i~~N1'~,~~~~tfifB~~. 89 ~ 9 ~ , jlm~z~~jl~m-:Xij~~%~tt~Z~& ' :t*OOJ=3 x~~:L}~1i~~"1'1I ' ~~ 1700 ~7tij~~:JH4 ffijJ4Bfj±~~lli.~~"1'.~ $f4 ' ~V?JT& ' 3Z.fl~*1t.~~~~tfiOZ:~l¥J~?5t.~~ r~.5&blJ ' :1t;lt.~it~jjil. Lttft. 0. ~tfJ. 0. ~~.*l¥J±~~~~'~ij!5&~X1'~,ft~~f!~r~~~*J~~ml¥J@~,. lli~~~JI~~"1'.l¥Jti!iID. 0. ~Itt. '. :L}~BngiMJE~f~l¥Jtlt:ltJtE1R:~. l¥Jflj~. , 1'fIliQ]'-"A~·J~.. , ii~1i~~"1'.l¥JfB~ , lli:ffl!tJtn-~~*.*~~Z§~ Myers and Majluf(1984)t~I±lEEtn-1iVl.1'f;fm?JT~~~jlzmttl, ilE~:L}~iIi*fIf.f~~ 0. ltJ11jjJltJ~ff!**l¥Jt!>t1i~~. 0. Hubennan(1984)tJm:itftJj:it~*i&j@mtltJ'Ij:1i:il. ML~IJ!0~MrEJ~1itn-mtltJ11ji~tJ~bl**z~jlf!~· Baskin(lS. Mtt2¥fi1Jolf-J ' j{1j~1i1£mtltJti1iJll¥J1i~~*~~zitt1JO '. l~mR~~~~'~ti~fTB~~Mmttff~Z~*o. 174 ­. '". ~Itt~~fJ&0~:tD!~U.

(3) ". 1i::~H3J:fIJ :~5G. 0. Schilling(1996)~:p,~:L}a]J!fI~jM~~~fU!i.!ifim~m. ~it1i~. ~=W:l. ' tJ~~:ft~mtilJ'I1JJd~. 0. and Sherman(1998)~~imt!i1J'l1jt~Z~~~~ . MI~JJi:L}~lt~:l:mt!i1J;l1jt~z ,:!fiI~:r;a: • ffij~~mt!i1J;l1jt~z:ft~*~ • tJl:fl3ruJfJf~*~~~51~~ · ffij",pg~~1£ ;-rB1ftJfrff~~~~z. • i!&~.",pg-~l:m:L}~mt!i1J;l1fl3ruJ~~Z~fl · 1~*3ZfJf :.rm~;mEE.~1J~5tfJT:L}a]¥.JtE!A!mt!i1J;I1j't~tt~zrl3'8kJruJ~tt. ' MI~fl:L}a]mt!i1Jtt ~1iI2SJ~ • ~cp:L}a]¥.Jtt{gffl:L}a]mf~ , nt~.lt ' m1il:mt:l:~~tt ' • •jt~~&Ml~ Jtt.~~&Ml~z~~ • lit51 · *fJf~tP.1£.~f~~CP~fl5(*1;I1~:~UJ:&~~Jj~f1~ pg~tzD"F. : mi\1fr'j~3Z.cIB1.!A!fJf~~~ : ~f1*fJf~Z § 8kJ · it(.~$;3Z.c , ffij~:lL~J]i.~~~ • m~1fr'j~fJf~~n : 1§$t;M~*fJf~.mPfii*fJz Tobit i® 'M~~~*fJf~ffi~:lLz.~Mm~·fi~~~fJf~MOO,~~~~,jtM*. fl3ruJfJf~5tfJT:1J~· m~1fr'j~.mt5*!A!5tfJT: {gfflfl*¥.Jtt5tfJT' ~~'I1MCn. '. fl3ruJm~ '~M£*~~~JE' ~.i®Mm~ft:jI'l1zM1J:)Jt~JE:&.mt5*!A!5t. tffiromt!i~WB:Jl : ~*fJf~z~~t5IDfB'. i\ ... ' fJf~~ittl:&f1~**fJf~z~1lI •. :)t~ @3"~-'Jf 1E1Fl1t. 8kJW-tJtlllll: m:L} I5J ~f§lJ . 5tfJT:L} a]¥.Jtt!A!mt!i1J;l1jtilitt~zrl3'83ruJ~. mt!i1Jttz~JE;I1~~ • it(M~~IDfB'!A!~$;3Z.c1fjnt"FJU~J]i.m~~ :. and Wier(1990)itt~t±:\*:L}aj:L}lm~fJ~~fl3ruJZjt&Rnt* ' ~~nt*!A!~fJ.m. . i!&*:L}a]z51$iI!jtnt*,5H\:L}aj1~ • Barclay and Smith(1996) , ~.:li75 , ~aJ3;W(2000)~m~fJ~~Pfi~~Zf~l:iE:L}lm~fJnt*f1*:L} aj~fU~11fQJfJ'l1 ' ~ ajZ51$iI!.nt*~/J\:L}aj1~· ffij Huberman(1984)' James and Doug(1998)tP.3:~:L}aj ~51$iI!jtnt*8kJ~;I: , ffij~~:Mf~mt!i1J'I1.~~~Z~~ , tJ~**~fIJf9:Ji:1J~1'F ;;.llt . *fJf~fflM1£51$MJint*8kJ~;l:l' · IJ\:L}a]51$MjtfflG*~I~ · i!&{l;Jt~.:Mf f'-±:'YA~J!**8kJf9:Jill* ; *:L}aj51$iI!jlfflG*fl3f1~1~ . MI/F{l;Jt~~** ~ffij.:Mff.St~mtmtJttjl~ • [;§llt . *fJf~f!t±:\~~-tzD"F : : ~ftM~ftj:fl3[l5J"F · l:m:L}a]mf~!A!mtB!jJ'l1jt~tt~~~fl3ruJ • *fJf~z §. 1-'- __. 1977H~t±:\'t#:L}aj8kJj't*t5~CP{g-a-it~'I1~f.R~· :L}~tAfJ~flJ1)iJi:1J~pfi3l1~ l-Llr~~/x.f!flA0-!j[. , 't#tEt]f!1!~~t'£~flJ8kJ:f~jl:1J~CP~1~1EljU&Ml~ . ~~1f'~ ~J5Jt§.~r~HJi1mI~1E8kJ:1J~ · fln~~T:f~jt/F~rl:l'~(underinvestment problem) • and Smith (1995)itmaJ3f1~nt~;f!lt8kJ:L} a]ffi] ~ 'f!.f.IA!A!tEt*zrl3~8kJfU~1ti~~Fm ~8kJ~f!f~lIrl:l'Jm • llt51 ' Kim, Mauer and Sherman(1998)~UtJ.m:1J ~~.lt8kJ:L} a]~~~.:Mff.St~8kJmt!i1J'l1jl~.l-J~1~f~Ji/F~8kJ~1lf~J~WI:I'Jm •• - 175 ­.

(4) :u::~*f~. mit1i~. m=M. Itt ' *litfj'GfflMraJ~~1i\t~1¥J0~J!!*tU~~~mtmf.l'l1iiii: ' .L~~f~~fJtftlJ.r.,'Jmz~~ : fflZ~~1f1¥J0~~{Jtf~lJ.r.,'Jm~/J\ , l&~f/U;j:ff~~l¥JmtlJJ'l1iiii: ~l1lt ±m:~m.4·HIlil~ -tzo~ : H2a : Jt.ftg{~ftf:tElrtlJ~ , LrP0~fflZ~~1f~mtgv.rl'1ii~tt$~IEt§/;JJ • 0. I. John(1993) 'Soenen(1993)!f3~1Jt'i'0~1JtsEmt:lt~~'I1~*fF,f , {tJjJ~*fH~~~I¥J1mmM ii~ . tj~fU*iiM!iizw* • ffij Kim, Mauer and Shennan(1998)fu,~lmaJ3'i'0 sEmt:lt~IiiJE'l1ilttkfF,f , ~{tj~*itMf~~mtlJJ'l1ii~ • _Itt ' *litf~fflWj1Jt.ll<.tllu"",,"=_ *1¥J0~ , ~:ff~E51M':ff~~mtlJJttiiii: . .L~~f~**1Jt~mt:ltz~IiiJE'I1· fZgItt . mtfj~~=tzo~ : H3a : Jt.ftgf~{tf:t§rtlJ~ , Lm0~~~mt:lt~~'I1WmtlJJ'l1iiii:tt$~IEt§/;JJ • fflJ.:if*~if0~zti~ 13~~~0~1JIfOO:. ' I¥st!l!Mji;li*ft ' l&:tEflitlJEtRJf~~fF,f , :lttzOfiiJijg~I¥st!l!~Ui§M~Wli*ft0~z1JlfOO: ii'T~ffFtW1I!!ffFtB(1999) , ~1t~WIIm (1996)~Wl~0 ~lftn~JjmtlJJiiii:~\~.tJi7Hic ' MLtjfi:*J.ifU~ 13 ~ • imffl ' ~.I¥J~{tf:J!!~J-~¥IilMl~* • Kim, Mauer and Sherman(l 1JJ'l'1ii~¥f1M1$Z~~~*1¥J11i7£~ , 0~1fM~M':ff~:J;l¥JmtlJJ'l1ii~ , Atn.mtRii:zifimtf:1 ' tjJ.il&~~l¥Jmii~Mi fZgItt ' *litf~fflWj'i'.Sii~¥f1M1 ttlJJ'l1iiii:Z¥IilMi$fF,f . ~~::if{tj~~ji~mjitn.Sji~ , ML*1EM'~:J;l¥JmtlJJ'l1ji~ , jt0~fU:ali*ft ; Biz ' JWM'fff~~mtlJJ'l'1iiii: E51J.l:t ' *litfj'Gmtfj®~!2]tzo~~: 14. : ~ftg{~{tf:t§rtlJ~ , Lm0~.1mjiii:~Mi$WmtlJJ'l1ji~¥f1M1$z~~Wmtlj]'l1j 0. ("\r\O\!'!fr.ll'1rs. -. ·. ""~=i. ~!l! ... 1. 0. 0. ~tt$~~t§/;JJ. 0. *- ' h1f 1E tt tt *rnti5t;fflH!.I1*litf~.~7ttff?fi1*1=rz Tobit ;lJglS7ttfft!2 'l1ji~tt$z~¥~fflZ*litfj'Gz.lm;lJglStlM. gt · ~:@'P1~tl*WjrE!' , ~tt~* '. '. , Jt.~§ltf;f0;::;']lft!'i'I't!;~~Vt.F. MLJ1lJE:ttf'F'I1~~ZJE~. ji*4*~&Jt.ftgtEHB1litf~7ttffJjt!. 0. ~'l~~j,JJ.Z!'. •. , Tobit ~~fHi~. -. *litf~~t¥tj. Tobit ;lJglS7ttffr!;li§1=rJllm7ttff ' ~~~~;.J:::/-t, 'tiiiii:tt$ , IttE51~~~{OO:~frtn 0 W 1 Zra~ · lftntt*0 ~ zmtlJJ'l1ii ii:tt$~ 0 ~. , 2. Tobit ~lljH~m1~ 19581f.1F.f. Tobin ~~~;t;mtfj, ;tt:tE:frtJT~Jt~t:ttnif#~Mtt:Jm. tfjlF.f,.~¥~~Jt~Z~Jt~tfjS.· • • m1tf:1M~~.T~Jt~tfj(~~.) ~~~tt:J6~'~~~.m1S~m~~ • •m1°. -. 4. 176 ­.

(5) ,.. iE:m*fli mttli~ ~~.~Zfl*. OLS )iJJ1i~~gf~1l\i~B9*i!i5f~: ' ~$1E:7t&J~.~. '. • ~l1lt ' *m:~f*m Tobit imlli'HJ';ffi$· Tobit mM~fN.jX~;i:\~1tf;i:\imlMflffJliffl* • r:p , fi-${:fr~$.1fItl¥tl ' ifflPj~JE{@:{-t~ , ~lJm~~:tt;i:\imlMtIM(Censored. mt'.ssion Model); ;g;~fi1flUj18I11F\JB9${:frfi1flU{l(/Nj'~~~JE{I)~~ , ~lJmJltfemjX~;i:\. Regression Model) • 1i1Z9~~B9Sil::7t~cm-oojX~:7t~c~~1tf;i:\:7t~. P),~,[:if<*pfTM!:lLB9te.l1pm-OO~~IZ9~~H ' ~~NIZ9~~feB9~~JJi::fm.g-::f1l\i. ··~~~imlMt*~~B9mJE:lt1.f\::fm.g-::f~·~ · Wf#c~~~IJJ-~.*tft1J:J~~msimlM{*~~. imI~:7t;ffi$ ,~*)(~Pj.*tft1J:JsH$(Maximize Likelihood Estimate Method)H~. • E8~*)(~tm!l1.r~j(gftt~~1t~ 0 W1 ~ra' · ~iJJ~ Amemiya(1984)PfTJEftB9. y;' = X;f3 + u. i. j. y; == 1. =1,2,3, ... , n. if y;' > 1. =Y:. if 0 :s; Y,'I. -0. if y," < 0. I. :s;. 1. (1). I. y;" ~7f-1Jl1fltlm~IZ9~~m ' X; ~7f-fi1fltlm~ El ~~m ' f3 , uj : ~5f-~~JJi ' u. j. -. N(0,a. 2. ) •. El ~~~imlM{*~ ,;g:1Jl1fltl{i~IZ9~~{l1t~ 0 W 1 ~ra' ,. (1). ~~{i{'FmimlMtl~~IZ9~~{i (y; = y;') ; f!l!~i)iE ' ;g:1Jl1flff{i~IZ9~~{i/J\~ < 0) , ~IJPj 0 {'FmimlMfl~~IZ9~~{I (y; '"' 0) • m~f:t~ i == 1,2,3, ... , n ' ry; 1W. , ~iJJlJl~{i ; ;g: y;'. :s;. 0 ' ~IJ ry;'l ~::fiJJlJl~{i • fil»ltJ~ Tobit m~~fi:*m1J:J {i:!i§t. (2) IT [1- F(Xj:U a)lIla-I t[(Y; - X;P)I a] ~r:p : IT ~7f-PfTfiliY;' 0 ft!j~{I~~fJl • I1 ~7f-PfTfili}j· > 0 ft!j~{I~~fJl ' F. L=. o. 1. :s;. .. ) ~7f-jfJl:7tl!cOO~ , f ( • ) ~7f-1I~WJ:lOO~ • iffl Tobit flffJllIII~;ft:tt;i:\imlMfIM •. y;' :s; 0 · ~lJfi~fOO:~~FXi ~y; ,~JjJlt~m~ffijmjX~;i:\~Mfl~' m;g:imlM. fH!Il~.Q,*r; 1:. . 'l'iI§¥U¥H~~~1f( , ~1:*~:!&/J\ZP:131~~1HfH5fi>lf(fi5~t~ , ~:m:}'iJT~*E*fl~~ , "iTI~mll5tt~~lf(fl~7t1'Jf1:*(Qualitative Dependent Variable Model)!!X.~~N~~lf(m~ 1M\Lunited Dependent Variable Model) • 'I'~~If(~:m:H:I;:Ji:«ffjj:m:Hlf(ii:«1J:ij , mf1t!:ml¥J13 ~lf(fl~7t1'Jf1:*' ~"iTI7t~ Logit 7t1'Jf1:*& Probit 7t1'Jf$: ~~~If(I¥JJi:«5lt¥U~NiM ' ~,RP~~lf(m~PmJ:tITruncated)~;fjH!tJ:t(Censored)mftlJ:ij , m1*ml¥J131~~~IIN~~If(~~7t*'T. -. 177. I I. I 11.

(6) 1EjN¥flJ mttlif{£: m=Wi fl~Iilt~@rt~Mm~. , ~fJfi*~lf~)'frS~t~ti~OT :. L= I1F(X;PIOtO-l[(~ -Xj3)la] o. Tobit m~l¥.JffEfrS1:i$i,*~Jfh'i*tft{1:),~ti(Maximum Likelihood Function) , ~ftti2.tft{1:)'~Jfl:*ffEf~ :jt.~ , EE max(1nL) tft{1:),~ti7t7JlJft Pi !Ii! a «iim'<?t ' Pi (i -1,2,3,..., n)~ n + 1fI*& iJ InL I iJo - 0 2.~:lr1:ilirt ' mfrSlf<¥~m Newton-Raphson tl31iBli1t:(PJ OLS 2.frSgt1*tifttiIiltt.efJ!fi«) · PJ~*ff.J:It~Jfl:2..*tft1t),frSlHfi« Pi & a • !ltia®~ti~Jtff*ft~t.k.l¥.J~«iitE ' -3&11 ' ii~ff~{'I1:!Ii!ltf~mmH1:~!f,'j'I1:2.~fti 0. 0. *x~~~rt~Mf~,~~tim~~O!li!l2.~·~~~*2.~~ti~OIf<¥'~~o. Iiltgt.~Mf*ti2.~*. •. =. ".m~Mti~ *if:reft1i1:j!:lr2.~Mf~J. Tobit. ~M?ttFT$~fj.m?ttFT. ' Ml:PJ01§]m.m ' ft ' m1iLmt.:I!:it~tt ' .1t)l~¥~MI*!Ii!mt.llJ'I1::R~¥~MI*2.~~~ImJjM~~ti ' ft~mElJJ'l1:jt~tt*2.~. !lt51- ' *if:re§1JOA~f!jUittiPJ~~~f!jU~ 'l1:jt~tt*2.~W ' -§f5~1f~MJ.I~:M ' ~fJttt* ' ;EJ!1iLmE:I!:&~~ffl~U~-r ' Tobit ~M?ttFT$PJ*~.k.mtitJfl:fD~~ti2.ra~l¥.JtJmf* • fftJmm~~OT : 0. liQUID/IT= a + P1S/ZE+ P2GROWTH+ P3VAR+ fJ4SPREADt fJsCYCLE+ P6LEV. kr 17. +fJ7CF + fJsPROB+. : Iiltmti~. kIk. +E. • LIQUIDITY :. mmElJJ'l1:jt~tt*. SIZE : m01§]m GROWTH : Iilt~:R~ft VAR : ~m1iLmE:I!:!t~'11: - SPREAD : ~.ftjt~~ mt.1JJ'l1:jt~¥~MI*2.~~· CYCLE : Iilt~1f~M~~M LEV : Iilt~fJttt* CF m1iLmE:!l- PROB : ~~~ffl~U~-r· I K : ~ 0 ~ 1 2.~~]jfJ~.!tJfl:(k=1,2, ...,17)­ Iilt I K 2.~iif*Jfl: • :jt.cp a. 0. 0. 0. ="WIHtf'Ftt:iEft ttft*if:repfi~fj~Jfl:2.~{'Fti)£R~OT. :. 178 ­. ". 0.

(7) ". 1E:~lH~:flJ. .l:it!f1rt1jiiftil::c$ : mt"itliJt£jijfU~OOfi!l~t)~jiifti~OOf[!1t o ~1JU~ : m~*ff1~~OOfi!lI{lZ El ~f-flf£fi!l. mtt1i~. m-Wl. 0. 0. : t) if~!&AffX:~$f'F~ffX:~~flz~1f{5. 0. ...... .7U~iftf.!t~!!t~,t1 : t)ffi:M ' ,'B.M ' 1JTijMzii~?~if~Ji-~fIJ ' f!J~.I.-:.I.ZP:±S)~jiifti~OO fi!l . MOf;Z-~&5t1&Z~*&1ti!t .gji~¥~ftIH$Wt"itIiJ,t1jlifti¥NftIH$Z&M : .I.-:.I.ffi:lW ' ,~,M ' tJTijlWZii~~if~Ji-r-P , ~~t)~jlifti~OOfi!lf'Fm'Jfl1jiifti¥NftIH$ : t) zP: r.g-~W:l~.IHT5EfffU$f'F~t"itliJtt jl~¥&ftIH$ ~..tiIlli.gji~¥~ftIH$~iftf.IiJ,t1jl~¥~!fH$!mm 'Jfftjl ifti¥~ftIH$WifftJJJ't1 0. 0. jl~¥~ftIH$Z&M. 0. r-Pif~M~~W:l:~ff~~~~~W~!&~~!&mW:l~z~~'~~~M~~~~~M W:lFa'1tiJt6 [EJ Carol, Jerry and Joseph (1998)Zf.'&7:* 0. 0. .itfll::c$ : t)~~:fJt~t)~ji~1ti!t7 •. : t)ffi:M' }~,lW ' tJTijMZii~~~fJ~J&A1tiJt8.. rtI!~~~II~T. : .1.-:.1.. Altman(1968)Z Z 11j~I{IZialf{1tiJt0iO'fJiilRi.lZ PJfm't19. 0. m~M~m~~84. 1~~~~88~12~'~Mm~~~~If{~~li~~. M:lfjt4~lf£jt 426. * ' ~{t(~ti~*gffi~1&~~ 311 *.~~U~J.\ff* Jt~~ff : (1)1iJf~~ff*£\~~• •~~3(~ffi3(~Z..tm0aj (2)~m~~J!x~:n~1¥J ~ , 83.ij~Mt!Il@A!2EIijt1i5t~fjffW-1N:0~1'[EJ , ~l'~UA (3)Jllm-~IMtf* 0. 0. 0. '¥=J~JJi~&ff1Jm3!F·. tJ0 fi]mJiflZ $1i.~tJmJiflZ~iIDfijj:E:nX:~tltf '. ;tt:cpm~i.I$1i.ZH i.I~ iID 1i.1JIJ~t JJ§t*m ~ $1i. . ~~~JJ§t*tI~1\Ii iIDfi f§'*liff:re~. IIpqJJ§tfJ7B'iltri1 flm-$:*m~$1i.8':Jjj:E:mffgtf~nX:.::r=tI ' i&tJ0fi]~~!&AnX:~$f'F~nX:~tltfZil 0. .. zttllJ'i1~~~if~M~~MZ~.· ~~~Mli~W:ljj.JJi:sfi~m-~3!I!Zzp:¥-:JW:lra'. , , ~1J0fi]mffZJJi:~zJIi~ff1Jm3!FIf£~1fll:f~ ~ 1987)1imJr~Ji*~mcp It fltt$ti1JlJ~ , ~lJt9:~m-ttllJttJii.lz Ji~ffl(*~l!iIz~ ~1tttf~f~0 fi] ~Ji:tEmElIJtt Ji i.l8':J~ IZ9. fi~Mli~~. 0. Mauer & Shennan( 1998)~JJiit~mE*JJi:sfimE:E:Wj} fi]mElIJttZ.3:.~*~' ~lt(ilJmtJ5[H~~. Wflfi¥aW:lflfE 1Z91tt ' ~0fi]if~fffi*iji~mE.1fll:*~ , frW*fEmzJJi:sfi&fffJm3!F(mElIJ o 1tt9i- ' flE1rItB~JJi~0~MfEfBtl8':Jmffg'I11fll:*~ , ffimffZmElIJ'i1Jii.ltf~:P· 0. ·t~~z~tJi~ 3.3*(!ilnrumm;jf~/~ (tI~${tW~~fl). i.I)+1*(~~!&A/~Jifl)+1.4*(1*\ijf~/mJi. • -. 179 ­.

(8) {£itl~fIJ. ~H::t1i~. m=W3. ~~ZLm0~~*'~~±~~~$~~~~~~'~*~~ffl~~~~±~~~' Z~F~~*~~Z)7}. 0. (4){f-~~pfi~ji*4f\f?\:fIJ!:~. , 1'NfiA~*0~. 0. T-. .. jUl*5mi *1i}f~ffl~ffl~1it+3R:~'@,t5. l.~-fF~~fjkffffj*)7). :. , ;J;t'8~~{'Ftt~~z~t.fElml~1ifl@Hil& El r 1E1JI~~. ¥&X ft$~~ffif\fflR0 ~ J ~)n4•• 2.-fF~£lHTkfffU*l& El • •£lHTlafflffB •. t .. f§rlJMf1l?tt1T1J5! (-). jJg!Mm~~c~tE~k. *~~JJ~jJg!Mfl?M~~tEZI{~ti~J;jfft1P)tt~k$-(Likelihood o. Ratio. tIll1P)Jt~k$-::t~:f!~g~J;j1N7dft1P){t5H$-~~~pfit5~tZi®.Ml~>l. m~~Nfflll@l~lO. ~pfiH.Z-2InALRM:*~~1J~Jf.{l~' J'!U~.WHo ' OJf§('~. ~ Tobit 5JmMfl?M1*J;j1N*tIll1P){t5H$-*~. 0. , iC{1I\Ii$-PRfflf'-Mt F ~k '. 1P)tt~k$-*lfIU~i®.lwfl?MZ~cjfj'li • J1ttlll1P)tt~k$-m : ALR = ~ , ~cp ALR Lmax. 1l; Lo ~~'ffi'~Jj)7}pJTf\fft5~t1*~~~~~~lll*tIll1P)i?M~{l ; Lmax ~1l'~)7}'. nln[1/(1-r2)]. ---+. 2. Xl. *1'F~. )'UMtH. 'ffi'l!fJ;j. : -21nALR = -2[lnLo-ln. 'L)'UtIll1P)ru~{ln~~~E3El3Il~ 1 ~~1J7t~,. tIlf(l:)tt1l*~~~1J~Jf.M:~. II-X;><I-l.l"u'!?,. , J'!U~3f;i®.Mfl?MOJ~f§('~ •. (=) ~JLtt~k ~*jJg!Mfl?M'ffii~Z-~9t;&JJ.!Zrs~J6\~~;fEl§~JL J;jlflU~9t;&JjZrs~~iSff1£-jiJ'~ El iUElml. 10. ALR -. LR(O) LUR(O). [$ij~~;. •. , ;J;tcP 0 : fmz~~ ;;gtsa'. ,. fJ' a ;. LuR (0) : ~~*l5NfflU~mm!fi*fl1l1P)~~1l·. -. ". 180 ­. • *1i}f~PRffl Durbin-Watson.

(9) ". 1£ffi~*flJ. Mtt1i~. M=M. ~~,t1~JE. ~~~ El ~IlI:Zra~ff1:£*JjH1mfi(Multicollinearity)' miBJl~B'j~7f;1:£ El ~llI:pJi*tBZfElrDl. relation Matrix) . ;tt:~I!!ZfElrDl{'*IlI:f@:f!:~ · ~7f;~IlI:Zra~~1'f~jJUaa1fl3rDl *3<: VIF ~JE)*ffi!I~ El ~IlI:Zra~~::aff1:£:!t~tt 0. 0. ~-~~,t1~JE #flff~1*'J..~. Goldfeld-Quandt ~J..~~JE71~JJl~::a ~1'fJjt-~ ~1lI:. 0. -It . .,. t~ ,~~ ~ ~ 7} *Jf ffi~~;tt:'81'fIDj(~. l®fllJ. 0. · mlVttj(~1*,JII1~fUnEj]B'jj(~. ,¥-j1'f~~I&~fV(:*W~~. *flff~Z § B'j~P~!iil7HJTi}~~'IiWmtlVjlij(~tt*Zra'B'jIBJ~'1i C7'~=~. .•J..~~~. MzflJm Tobit ilmS7HJT1:tHi1T1I~7HJT *rtJ~&t.~*S*~BJl Y-:EJ.-I.. 9""-.J"'JB'j1Ul1ffi ' pg~:!t7t~[9t5B1J1 : (l)fl*i}~b1EIV'Iij(~tt*Z ,. 0. · tJ~Wt.t$i}~¥-j1'fmlV·Iij(~fti~ji~ZttmB'jjl1iID (2)fiEl3*~jzl!;-t1k1t:~t7t;f:JT~J..~ ~1:!X'"I",,,}~Z~·t1 ; lft5i­ ' v]\~iffi1 Pearson fElrDl1BI\il!J..~~m~~IlI:Zra'B'jrDl1*' (3)~JEilm fl~~1i~&ilmSm~Z~c31~:1i (4)Tobit ilmM*S5f! · ~Mi}~~'IiWt1EIV'liji~tt*Z 0. 0. 0. I. .fI*if1tmtlV't1j(~tt*7tfJT-~t5B.fI*. El3~-PJ,m7f;fl*i}~JmlV·t1ji~tt*1:£~~ 84. 88 ifZttfi~~1V11iID • &tZJS¥-:J1lI: · ZP:¥-:JmlV·t11i~tt*EI3~~ 84 if¥:J 9.37% ' ;tt:f&~~ltT:ilttfB'jm~ . ~O~~ 85 if@ 9.87% ' lliijj';1ii!J 86 1f~U~1i~:<idFJ.(!'<P ' 2JSl'3if,tili)'Ii'lii'~tt,*, .. ,,"Z 10.57% • jj';!!il ' ZP:¥-:JmtlV·t1j(~tt*~U~if:il~ , ~O~~ 87 8.56%W~~ 88 ifZ 6.76% ffij 0. '11ft1r~~ ­. --­. {l*-0- 6] ifitfJJ /t1. 'it A 1:1=.$ ­ ..ifJ~tt. tp 1ftit. 0.093679 0.098686 0.105692 0.085645 0.06764 0.090244. 0.058305 0.064737 0.069073 0.058981 0.040485 0.057081. ~ -1m. )t11I.it ~ -"- 1m )t11I. it. 0.025897 0.02909 0.031191 0.027626 0.018167 0.026341. 181 ­. :l*--1:-*~{l*. 0.128356 0.13927 0.142944 0.119341 0.090378 0.122254. ~Ji!1-.. 0.093572 0.096429 0.101555 0.082070 0.073181 0.073372. ~. i. I I.

(10) lNN~fU. mtr1i~. m-=M. /II-~iG2p~mt'jJ'li:li~tt*1i1f:~~!itJJII~ . 2p~t1t!itJ'liji~tt*f;£~~ 84 if. ~1f:~tjI¥JJII~ , 86 1f:~i:mh~~ • i~~H& ' 2p~mt!itJ'lijiil:tt*~IJ~1f:~?~ . .L=I/"J'-!6J 1m1=f= ' -~mt!itJ'lijiil:~M!i!ljij1f:!!!itJ=1' fE!013J~ji~mE!itJ'lijiil:J;JJi­. *- .. ff:ilt' ~JEjiil:)~U~Ellt!tf1J[]~~P , i'i10¥3&~~ 841f:~ 861f:ra'2p~mt!itJ'lijiil:1-L~~:q:. tj , ~~ 871f:W 881f:~U~1f:~?~ ; -~*~ij!f=1'tt~ , lRiTi1=fffJOJIiI ' ~~LiTi0 ji~~A~lRiTi ' J;JfjMF:lliW:l~ji(1=ffJlm~)lllmzfu~ , ~3&:lliW:lmHlI!tf1J[] . 2p~tm:!itJtt ~tt$jZ;;jjffl~!tf • ~~ 87, 88 1f:ra' · ~~L~1:.*f¥rs2:~iI!U ' !i!l~~pg1l::~3¥-'idnJ Il/J\ 'ffig1&l¥Jtt!!'MIR~ . ~~lRiTir~ '~m~~1l::~' ~jlA~~$~lRiTi . ®1l::~~ji~IDEJIl=1''M ' mE!itJ'Ii=1' JE ' ~f$fij6~~M~fBtl ' i'&~~~~ 871f:W 88 'lijlil:tt$~~~JII~ • .16. T I - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -......... .14. zp.. .12. ~. tnt !lW. tl: Ji ~. tt. .10. ~8I------------­. -. ""­. '" '" ..... ""'-. .,. '­. .06. ... "...-",~. "...-. "-,. , " - - --- - -.........' ,. "­ ....... "­ ~. .04. .02 ". • 85. 84. III (=). .... --. •. 86. • 87. .. "­. .... ~" ,. 1 88. if J~ if.t fh 'tt • A. l;r.:fiJi. ~ ttl J} III. fl*1f:llmt!itJ'litt*5HJT-il:~lJU. J;JiI:~lJU5t~ , EE~=OJ~fJl1£1i1f:l¥Jfl*1f:llcp · 2p~mt!itJ'lijiil:tt$1I-~ 4. 13.76%~ra' • ;ttCPB:~l¥JiW1iOO~~5tlJlJ~~~~ 13.76% ' ;tt'8i1:~~ 12.97% . 12.58% '*~I~~ 11.54% 'm~I~~ 11.51% ; jfflB:f~~~Ij~~*~~~ 4.13%·. ~1l::~mt!itJ'Ii~~~~~jZ;;j~~~. • ~ § ~ • =1'~~~ra't1tltrlijlil:l&~~=1'~Elf6J •. 182 ­. ".

(11) ". 11::m~ftl. mifli~. m=M. , ffi]3§*Lt~~tlM~*l¥.i~&t1tItJ·I1Jlfl S3i1-IlJ~Jl:t£0 &1;f1*~~~1¥J 4 OO~~(tl*~~ 25 *) , 7tlJ rJmllT~Wf$ME~ ~ffl1j.~ , 1lr:rIJ~ , ~~~ , ~fifJ 841f::¥ 881f:zp.~m!l.tJI1Jl~tt~Z.m~1iffj , IlJfi~z • Jttl2BOO~~Zzp.~mltJttJl~tt~:(£~fifJ 841f::¥~fifJ 861f:~iftt1J(] , ~iJ zp:~mllJttJl~tt~~Umli1f:;fI*1f:J.li:f:1Zlliii5=if ' ffi]~iJ 861f:f&~~mmt:~e~~ rJdllh":Wi- , ~~0&1~mt:m~$ ~~Jt~~J.l::ftt~M~f8:tI ' .~mllJ'l1$tL~ h~,..<-,-/d;.~iIit>~mltJ·I1Jl~. 0. t. lmllJttJt~tt~~Jl~~I¥J.m~. 0. _*_. :f<.=- " ~1*0- a] ir.tfn·ti. A ~t.$ -1.:f<.(841f--881f-)- A 1; >.N. Asm. .~_. t~_. 11.54%. 5.33%. 8. 7.05%. 4.89%. 26. 11.51 %. 6.67%. 17. Mtii..:r..S. 8.06%. 5.25%. 45. 1t~S. 11.08%. 7.21%. 14. S1t~S. 9.47%. 8.59%. 12. 9.41%. 5.72%. 17. 6.99%. 4.73%. 7. •. ·lta\.:r.. S. 4.13%. 3.02%. 7. ·~.S. 4.42%. 3.60%. 20. I. It..S 5\"'S. 7.70%. 5.97%. 8. 13.76%. 13.88%. 2. 12.58%. 10.39%. 51. 4.59%. 2.63%. 30. 9.65%. 8.04%. 13. 5.93%. 3.28%. 6. aitS. 10.68%. 8.57%. 8. ~-e. 12.97%. 9.06%. 20. 9.02%. 5.71%. 311. 11=11Wlti.*iillt11*1f~tjj- *fT. ;~=f9~~;fI*0qj.mf§Jm~~z£t~'I1ME~t{rnI *if~l-:Lmt:*:fI~~iID1i:1& § ?&f:f~ qjmmz~~ , f.tE~-=IlJ~JJ! ' tl*0&1ZZP:i'g~*:fI~~iID1i:f3m 4,209.63(8 0. - 183. ! i.

(12) 1£jR~fIJ ~). m=M. mit1i~. . r:p{lll~Jtlj:f.& 3,811.68(B~). ;J\1¥J0~j:!U{ji:f.& 144.11(B~). 0. mfJtlBt:*1¥J0~. , ,Ij§BR,fI~~3t 11,743.5(B~) ,. 0. *fVf~PJif~1f5CAP.X:R2¥f'F:f.&0~p.x:R~1!~~fj. 0. -IN:ffija ' fj*0~. :R2¥Zf!¥-3¥-J:f.& 14% ' m~:{£fj*0~~1tiiZf!¥-31!fi1Eif~1&Ap.x:R$I¥J'm7Jl ' . . 1• .::tXl4;I!f~ ~f.OC:R . ffijft~~f'iJ~3t 167.52%~1f.ff~1&AP.X:R2¥ ' {E!~fi0~~1t~1&Af.OC:R2¥ ~m~. , ~Oft/Nlii:f.&-28.59%. 0. .1['i~¥l5!ftHl2¥WmtltJ'liji~¥flftHl2¥~£~1JOO. ' ZfS¥-3¥-Jm-0.0437 ' 1l!i:l\:@j.liJ -S m~{iii • S3~*fVf~{;fj;J aillJIHTZf!¥-3-1f.WJ1EfffU2¥!iltmtltJ'liji~~¥flftHl$ . £~~m~1iii*E* ' m71'fj*0~~~1f..mlji~~¥&ftHI${~~mtltJttfi~¥&ftHl2¥ ' 7Jl:±'~Jjj(~f'iJfjgm*fVf~.pff~l&~-1f.WJJIH'J1EffflJ$f'iJfjg:ffjg{i;~1£~.~~~~*'II'. ~*l¥JmtltJttji~~ftHl2¥~lli1f.**~~:fIt~. , ~.~n~.mlji~19:jn&ftHl2¥~{~ • JJ:fJttt$1JOO . Zf!¥-3¥3m 40.61% ' fi~~r%3t 74.18% ' ffijfif~~&ljm 10.76% ' *0~~ji**8~r:p . ~1Jt{J)~-1Ett!i ' Nn~7,f1~Mji~ , .1JtMfi:{£§mi0 1~Llli~;fEl~!i~~~tg· ~:¥fit!!;;0~~m~r%Mm:m:~i&~ , ~ fJttt2¥~EI~ r% ,~O Nnm-{9U· *-.=.. ,,#t3!·ti.M.1t~#*­ ~~£. JiLk1t. tf f.n:.tt. 0.4230 0.5600 0.0150 0.0131. 11743.5 167.522% 0.1170 -0.0008. 3811.68 6.468% 0.0124 -0.0457. 544.4317 13.40% 0.5924 6.8023. 268 74.18% 6.7065 13.87705. 111.756 40.31% 0.1005 ------0.6446. if1~it. ~tt. 4209.63 14.0078% 0.0167 JJt.11.- *1. -t ~ J(. 'ti. ". H. f" ":tllW * -9!- ,iii. th -0.0437 .ti. f" ":tli§Hf*~£tA. **. -~­. 85 40.61% 0.1250 1.0994. l';fIlfJI.l.!M. ~tt~ifi. JJt.11.- ,iii. -t. AI£" fJi ~J I!l. --~. --~. ~-~. - " Pearson ffilil?t'" ~1lY~fj~ra~;fElIm1¥J1~7fMHfim~ ~;fElruJ. , mtltJ'liji~tt2¥~~1t~1Il!H[~M '. ~. ' m#7EP~*fVf~~fflM ' m~~if~1mlijl~!~H!ij1lR:R~~fJttt$1lRr%1¥J0~ ,. 1i~l¥Jt5'Hll~{~. • JLt~ , mtltJttji~tt2¥W.llji~&mtltJttji~¥flftHl2¥=-~-=.u­. #7Ml*5[Fj*fVf~~fflM ji:~zJ9:ji~mtltJttji~. ' m~~.mlji~¥flftHl**~~11tJ'~ji~¥flftHl2¥ ' ~0. •. 0~mfJW.mlji~&mtltJ'liji~¥flftHl2¥£~~1E~ElruJ. - 184 ­. 4. ' m~~J!fJ1lR*1¥J0~ ,.

(13) ". 1i::iN*fU. mtt1i~. m=M. • i}PJmf!Mfl~J~3'fimt:lt~~tf¥~fElrm . D5Fi}PJ~JMl · J{IJJ~3'fit1i.:I:~~'I'l~/J\ . Ilt&~*i}PJ~/J\i}PJJ~1fL~"1.DLtE . ll~aNI)l~pffflji . ~J~1fLmt:l:~~,t1~;J\ • ~~fI\ffgiJJ~1fLmt:l:~~t:t¥lEfElrm . D5Fp.x~fI\ff~~I¥Ji} PJ ' ;ttJ~1fLmt:lt~~,t1~ , J1t&~~p.x~fI\ffl¥Ji}PJpffiID~**Z::fiii)£'tl~* . ~JJl1fLtfri.:It~~'t1t!MElJt~* · ep~1Jtlt$~~I¥Ji}PJ . ~1k~~$~~~~ · Iltll. ,.,.'~;fih'I'fIc~iiz~&M1$~~\ff~*. 0. M$~M~~I¥Ji}PJ'm~1k~~~jim~fI~JJl3'fi~~'@~~1k~M$~M~. · ~fM~Jjm.1JtMjit)1£i}PJJ~3'fimt.AJliJmtfjzfijfl~MEl~c.g- . ~Ilt · ?;J?i&~ffttt.$f!. iUhiif.!. _*_ t. --­ -~-'-----'-----"----'--'-T-----.---r---'-----. 0~... 1.000. • -0.032. 1.000. • 0.037. 1.000 1.000. ,. 1.000. ~. •. ;. 1.000. iI. 1.000. ~M£*1F1~~)£. ~*fiff~f.S*fl*. . ~11i~mt~t:t~)£· x.fJt~1iCJ~J~~ Durbin-Watson WiJmIDt9!~ Fa'~i§:fHElrmfij · OW fWIfJf.S 2.26 ' D5F~~IJizFdj~.g-.:lr't1z1F1~ ffijt'f~1i~CJ. ~f!~Wlz VIF M~/J\~ 10 • D5Fmf!~f(zFa':~}H!~~t:t1t.g-1¥J1.~ • §3:9} , *fiff~.I-~ W~n~M~ZFa'~i§A~-~~f( , t'f~1i t:pCJ~JJl F fWIf.S 1.1045 ' P fWI 0. '~~~~~~zOO¥~-~~~I¥J®~o. -. 185 ­.

(14) :il::jN*fU ~tt1i:f:B ~=W3 (=) ~ilflru!rcH~'Ii~:iE. ~fJ;)Jt:.*1t~t:!l:f~{-21nALR. = -2[InL o -lnL max J= nln[l! (1- r 2 )] -. xh .. I-I"V,\.Sl',;;'. llJ.tB~fJ;Jtt~:iEM~ 29.22(adjusted R2=29.95%)' lIt~fJ-.Att*1fgt:!l:*~-t1JI?j?f.{I.. lItflru!llJfIUl5¥:. 0. (=) Tobit ~M7}:fJT*6*. *fr'i~aJJ.m~M7}fffZJa* ' {t(.~li~Mfl~Z*6* ' ~aJJ1}:rjLFXii)(.K-~. ""f:. 1.. 0a]mm 0a]mm~mt:l1Jttjf~tt$~U~~fEHUJ ' 5tfff*1iff;"t Hla Z®~ ; 1It~ James. Doug(1998)Z*6*-~. · &J!~1}a]Zmt:I1J'Iit;k:1fif#£~mb1J!(J{JffjID' (J{J~:!I:""f · IJ\0 a]ftJtrPJ*iEfff!l!5t ~mt:I1J'IiJiiffit).~mt**1~Ji(J{JiI* : *0a]JtU~:tE~rr1} f1t~p;ij~*~~1Hmm:R1Jim~~~Jlm~1;1f~~ . 1i-tmmJirrz*fEl!1!1!5tfi£ . i£ICilf{AMr..,~ *~:Rtl1tffij*iEfff!l!5t~ (J{Jmt:ltrli:Riffi 0. .'·. 2. PX~tl1t. rrz~tl1t~mt:l1Jtt:Riffitt~*~f!#U~7Jd~ • ~5tfff*1iff;"t H2a Z®~ ; 1It~. ,. ~;. ~~~I;. ""I i. ~,. " -.i. Mauer and Sherman(1998)Z*6*~-~ .1.m~~rrz~.1t(J{J1}a]~~1tJiFR~~iIPJ:£ Jiiffi · tJf'F~~{i£G:*~f1tllAzrdj-RJMrc'ml¥J,,¥~ :1:~!ij{~IlJ§g~0 Ji~M • f1tllA~Tf*IIlE3cl¥JlI~ · im'M1t:tEfirit~f:JI:fJ1J[]A~1ttl'Ii{l5fi~,x . fi£#!fl-RJMfj~?JTiJ[~ZM:tEf~JMrc'm ' ~~~ilJi0a]mt:!IJJ'Iii&1fitU~~ 0. ~.. 3.. lJl:iiZ:mt::!I:~~tt. lJl:iiZ:mt::!I:~~ft~.!lJJtt:Riffi~~~M.~ffi~·~fff*1iff~H~Z®~;. Soenen(1993), Kim, Mauer and Sherman(1998)Z*6*-~ ~~lJl:iiZ:tr.f.*!U¥A4:1ftr*~ a] , ~U~~~~*ftfff~~VfEI1J'lifiiffi.l-:A~{i£**fJ!:iiZ:if,E:!I:Z~Ui:iE'1i 0. 0. 4. .1I:Riffi¥&!II$~mt:I1J'Ii:Riffi¥&!II~Z~ri. .ftJiiffi¥&!II~&.!lJJtt:RiffiW!ll$Z~ri~.l1Jftfiiffitt$~U.~fEl~ . 1iff~ lIta Z®~ ; 1It*6*~ Kim, Mauer and Sherman(1998)Z*6*~-~ f!P~.ft~~~ $Wif,E!IJJ'Ii:Riffi¥&!II$z~~~*~ · 1} a]~fI;J{rPJ~~tiJi:iiZ:1~:R~.mJJ'li:Riffi 1lJ~~~= : -m0a]MrPJ1~:R~tijt:iiZ:~.lJJtt:R~t)'f'!Hjtf1~'Ii:R:iiZ:iI* : -'E1~rrIr.' 0. 0. 1;1f~il~ · ~:R.1t:P ' ~1!<:0a](~[J1$MCiffi~)ftJtla.J~:R:iiZ:"~Ji~G:m ' .vA)I;1Jl'1)t.I'.n.ml flj~ , ~ijjl&f!P~.ftJiiffi¥&!II$~mt:I1J'Ii:Riffi¥&!II~Z~~~* • 0a]fJJftfi!EJ~ ~:R~.lJJttJiiffi·. -. ". 186.

(15) ". 11::~~flj. m-ttli~. m=M. *-.1i. . . fltr 1i1 Tobit ila.tt $)-;#1-.ij; *­ a+ fJ1SIZE+ fJ2GROWIH+ fJ3VAR+ fJ4SPREADt fJ5CYCLE+fJ6LEV 17. + fJ7 CF + fJsPROB+ ~YkI k +E. ~iHttt\~ ~Ji. IfJtJ.ij~!t. I. 'fttlfi 1} iij AllA)t. ~ittl" 1;t jftt t ~ ~ 'ti.. *. It j A. _iII4l Ajftt til 'ti. j A.. 0.9083. (0.0000). _iII4l~.!.tJt. itf-.itJ! ~ftJ;t.4l. ~. I. I. 1.1045. Goldfeld-Quandt. Fft 311 il;$.:tt itt : *,**, *** ,:fr55U~~1£ p-fW£<O.l, p-fW£<O.05, p-fW£<O.Ol TDli=l. -. 187 ­. 0.

(16) 1f.:~H~fU. mtt1i~. 11i ,. j.ti t~ J4 ~ 1A *ttJf~ § I19f*7tffiiHij!fi!jtE5fi1mt!WJ11jl~tb~zra~I19M1{'* . tJ~3i::L}~. ~* *fr'j§j)t;~.~~Z~*! ; ~~~m'H!fi;*ttJf3i:z~$tl ; iif&jm~f1**iitL"''''-~ii! 0. -'i1f~*6~. m.1Wfr'j.~Z*6*PfTSf~z*6~M~~D"T. (-) :L} ~ ~JU~5fi1mEltJtEjl il:tb$ Ji!.~ fEIIDJ. :. 0. ~~m~jl~*I19~."TI~~~g~.M.~mEltJtEjl~u~.**m.2. 3.1( ; *:L}~~!J~:t£~fj:L}~{I~Fffl~*~~~m~jljjan~:fim.f~~~~~iii: '. ffif1.~·~M~~~**&jl.~OO.M.~~~ltJtEjl~o. (=) ~~.~W~ltJtEjl~tb$~M1. 0. :t£-~I.m:L}~cp , t.lifiX~.~I19:L}~M~~HEI3.M.~mt'jJ'l1jl~.v.A1"l' 1~1C>J1l30f<:. flllAzra'fUiii:fIj~ · PfT~fiXz&jl~JErc'~. c=:). 0. ~~t1t:.~~tEWmEltJ'l1jl~tb$Ji!.IEf§1m. 0. ~~~:!I~~'I11!l.t*I19:L}~ I ~Ug~.M.~mt:!WJ'l1jl~tJ~f~**~~~mt:ltz. 11. 0. (1m) • •j{~¥RMI*,&mt:ltJtEjl~fNMI*Z~~5fi1mt:!WJ'I1j{~tb*Ji!.IEf§!Il1 ~P{fJr.jl~fNMI~WmE!WJtEjl~¥&MI*Z~~* ' :L} !WJtEJi~ -jjan~7PJm:#tfUlWitijl~~3.I(~ , §5-jjan ' El3m-*~~~-Jtfi: ' :IiF~m-@t/ 0. 0. ~1&:L}~(~D{$t1t~~)g~~j{~":f'§tjlm-~m . tJllfI&m:M~~fIjiii:. =.,. 0. ijf~~m*ll. !iI~*fj}f~:t£.~I.:fi"T7U~$Uff:t£ · ~1JDtJ~ElJ:) : §j)t; · *ttJf3i:Mra'~E:~m 84 ~ 88 ' @PJtmf]j~t1dJF~-Jtfi:1I~7ElI1J'&~fl'i11~*:r-tl*ttJf3i:f1:it~mtmtJ'I1 :It ;It;x ' *ttJf3i:f*l-J- -1f.M~ffflj*lj:!lmEl1J'l1jl~Z15t:Ji~&MI* ' PJ~E~ JEtJ 0. .~*~if~ff.~J!3.I(119mt:1tJ11j(~¥&MI. 0. , **~Jf~nraJ *ttJf3i:±J!~~t-J-El.ttB1iiI.m:L}~~ItJ11Z~~'I1~* · ~1'fi5J~1'¥f:xft '. -. ". 188 ­.

(17) ~. d*fU ~i:t1i~ ~=M 12§*:lmlf(!J!j1} "'JVif.'jJ'tt~QRXl'~fif.lz~. ' i'&OJtt.~l'~~~zrdJ-JN:1}n.J ',JI:,l(J:RILR~'tt A.;;tt:~ , J!f*I~Bfi!i¥i~fiI!Q(f,J~. ' *i¥i52:~~z-JN:1}l§j:ft1iZiiI! '(Iij~~f~ , Vif.mJJtt~~~iS~?fT~~ , W\JtHOO:~**if~~~(f,J~Jm 0. 0. ~~3ttt , 1i#&1T' r CP/J\:i1:JI~JJi~1fglllttzif~7tfJT J 'titfiflfJeJ'lf!l' 8 F.J ' ]:I 93-98 •. m129 W3 ' 1996. , r ~~~(f,J~~-Ji~~Wti~llI!J 'J/(!lJlftN' 19981¥ 9 F.J ,]:I 66-73 , r #ttM~1flll! J 'i3'~t: ¥J~.fqj , 19991¥ 11!!~.~ Block and Hirt ~, rM~~llI!J 'i3'~t: WHi:ll::~1flll!~IlWi}l§j , 1999 0. ,. ,. 0. . r 0l§j~'tt~I&!j1}a]jitfl~mz~.-pJ.f::r. '~~1}l§jm~JJ . ~1LCPlE*~. .",.....,..,,- ~Hi~±~)( , 2000 1¥. 0. , r 0l§jZfl3':ffil!~~IlItt-.L-)'• • '~~1}l§jm~JJ · ~1LCPlE*~:ll::~~llI!~~Hiji± , 19991¥ • E. I., "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis, and the Prediction of Corporation -'-'~"",Journal ofFinance,. 23,1968, pp.589-609.. T., "Tobit Model: A Survey", Journal ofEconometrics, 43, 1984, pp.3-61. , M. and Smith, Jr. C. W., "The Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt", Journal of 50,1995, pp.609-632. , M. and Smith, Jr. C. W., "On Financial Architecture: Leverage, Maturity, and ,r;h.",. Journal Applied Corporate Finance, 8, 1996, pp.4-17.. 1., "Corporate Liquidity in Games of Monopoly Power", Review of Economics and. 69,1987, pp.312-319. L., Jerry, L. S., and Joseph, A 1., "Corporate Liquidity and Significance of Earnings Cash Flow", Journal ofApplied Business Research, 14, 1998, pp.27-38. G., "External Financing and Liquidity", Journal ofFinance 39, 1984, pp.895-908. W., and Doug, D., "Evaluating Corporate Liquidity", Treasury Management 'lSsociation. 18, 1998, pp.28-31. C., and Wier, P., "Borrowing Relationships, Intermediation, and the Cost of Issuing . Securities", Journal ofFinancial Economics, 28,1990, pp.149-171.. -. 189 ­.

(18) :Itjt~flJ. mttli~. m=M. John, T. A., "Accounting Measures of Corporate Liquidity, Leverage, and Costs of Distress", Financial Management, 22, 1993, pp. 91-10 1. Kim, C. S., Mauer, D. C., and Sherman, A. E., "The Determinants of Corporate Li Theory and Evidence", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 33, pp.335-359. Myers, S.. c.,. "Determinants of Corporate Borrowing", Journal of Financial Economics. 1977, pp.l47-175. Schilling, G., "Working Capital's Role in Maintaining Corporate Liquidity",. Management Association, 16, 1996, pp.4-8. Soenen, L. A., "Cash Conversion Cycle and Corporate Profitability", Journal of. Management, l3, 1993, pp.53-58. Tobin, J., "Estimation of Relationship for Limited Dependent Variables", Econometrica, 1958, pp.24-36.. -. ". 190 ­.

(19)

參考文獻

相關文件

Wang, Solving pseudomonotone variational inequalities and pseudocon- vex optimization problems using the projection neural network, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 17

Define instead the imaginary.. potential, magnetic field, lattice…) Dirac-BdG Hamiltonian:. with small, and matrix

Ma, T.C., “The Effect of Competition Law Enforcement on Economic Growth”, Journal of Competition Law and Economics 2010, 10. Manne, H., “Mergers and the Market for

The study explore the relation between ownership structure, board characteristics and financial distress by Logistic regression analysis.. Overall, this paper

Briefing Session on the Initial Recommendations for the Ultimate Way Forward of the Business, Accounting and Financial Studies (BAFS) Curriculum and Assessment Event Date &amp;

Microphone and 600 ohm line conduits shall be mechanically and electrically connected to receptacle boxes and electrically grounded to the audio system ground point.. Lines in

{Assess business performance from a range of accounting ratios in terms of profitability,. liquidity, solvency and management efficiency

Type case as pattern matching on values Type safe dynamic value (existential types).. How can we