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Arsenic exposure, arsenic metabolism, and incident diabetes in the strong heart study.

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Arsenic exposure, arsenic metabolism, and incident diabetes in the Strong Heart Study

Chin-Chi Kuo, MD, PhD1-4, Barbara V Howard, PhD5,6, Jason G Umans, MD,PhD5,6, Matthew O Gribble,

PhD7, Lyle G. Best, PhD 8, Kevin A Francesconi, PhD9, Walter Goessler, PhD9, Elisa Lee, PhD10, Eliseo Guallar, MD, DrPH1,3,11, and Ana Navas-Acien, MD, PhD1-3,12

1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

2Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

3Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

4 Kidney Institute and Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital and College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan

5MedStar Health Research Institute, Hyattsville, MD, USA

6Georgetown-Howard Universities Center for Clinical and Translational Science, Washington DC, USA 7University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

8Missouri Breaks Industries Research, Inc., Timber Lake, South Dakota

9Institute of Chemistry – Analytical Chemistry, Karl-Franzens University Graz, Graz, Austria

10Center for American Indian Health Research, College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USA

11Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA 12Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Short Title: Arsenic metabolism and diabetes

Index Words: arsenic, arsenic metabolism, arsenic methylation, diabetes

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Potential conflicts of interest: All authors: no conflicts. Word count: Abstract, 251; Text, 4,291; Tables, 3; Figures, 3

Funding: This study was supported by grants from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute

(R01HL090863, HL41642, HL41652, HL41654, and HL65521) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R01ES021367 and P30ES03819).

Author contributions:

CCK, MOG, EG and ANA : Prepared research data, conducted statistical analysis, and manuscript writing

BVH, JGU, LGB, and EL: Primary investigators of Strong Heart Study and prepared research data

KAF and WG: Arsenic measurements for Strong Heart Study participants

Acknowledgments

Dr. Ana Navas-Acien is the guarantor of this work and, as such, had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

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Abstract Objective

Little is known regarding arsenic metabolism in diabetes development. We investigated the prospective associations of low-moderate arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with diabetes incidence in the Strong Heart Study.

Research Design and Methods

A total of 1,694 diabetes-free participants aged 45-75 years were recruited in 1989-1991 and followed through 1998-1999. We used the proportions of urine inorganic arsenic(iAs), monomethylated(MMA), and dimethylated(DMA) over their sum (expressed as iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%) as the biomarkers of arsenic metabolism. Diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, 2–h glucose ≥200 mg/dL, self-reported diabetes history, or self-reported use of anti-diabetic medications.

Results

Over 11,263.2 person-years of follow-up, 396 participants developed diabetes. Using the leave-one-out approach to model the dynamics of arsenic metabolism, we found lower MMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence. The hazard ratios (95% CI) of diabetes incidence for a 5% increase in MMA% were 0.69 (0.52, 0.90) and 0.76 (0.65, 0.89) when iAs% and DMA% were, respectively, left-out of the model. DMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence only when MMA% decreased (left-out from the model), but not when iAs% decreased. iAs% was also associated with higher diabetes incidence when MMA% decreased. The association between MMA% and diabetes incidence was similar by age, sex, study site, obesity, and urine inorganic arsenic concentrations.

Conclusions

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Arsenic metabolism, in particular lower MMA%, was prospectively associated with increased incidence of diabetes. Research is needed to evaluate whether arsenic metabolism is related to diabetes incidence

per se, or through its close connections with one-carbon metabolism.

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Background

Humans are exposed to inorganic arsenic through drinking water, food, dust, and ambient air. Increasing epidemiologic and experimental evidence supports a role for inorganic arsenic in the development of diabetes mellitus. At high arsenic levels (>150 µg/L in drinking water), evidence from Taiwan and Bangladesh supports an association with diabetes, although most studies are cross-sectional and there are concerns about measures of arsenic exposure and the definition of diabetes in some studies. At low-moderate arsenic levels, recent evidence from Mexico and the United states, including cross-sectional and prospective studies support the role of arsenic in diabetes development.

Little is known, however, about the association between arsenic metabolism and diabetes. After absorption, inorganic arsenic (iAs; arsenate and arsenite) is methylated, primarily in the liver, to form monomethylated (MMA) and dimethylated (DMA) arsenic compounds, which are excreted into the urine together with iAs. Higher MMA% and lower DMA% in urine have been related to increased risk of cancer and cardiovascular disease in studies from Taiwan and Bangladesh. The increased risk of cancer and cardiovascular disease associated with higher MMA% in urine may be related to the high toxicity of MMA (III), the trivalent form that is rapidly oxidized to MMA in urine and thus difficult to measure in epidemiologic studies. DMA is regarded as a less toxic arsenic species, as DMA is more rapidly excreted through the urine compared to inorganic arsenic. DMA (III), however, has been recently linked to the prevalence of diabetes in cross-sectional studies from Mexico and Bangladesh, although it is also an unstable species in urine. Higher DMA% and lower MMA% has also been related to obesity in studies from Mexico and the US, although the temporality of these associations is unclear. In addition, arsenic metabolism is tightly connected with one-carbon metabolism, which has been implicated in both cancer development and cardiovascular disease, and may also play a role in diabetes. These findings highlight the need to properly evaluate the role of arsenic methylation profiles in diabetes development.

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In this study, we investigated the associations of low-moderate arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with diabetes in the Strong Heart Study (SHS). The SHS is a population-based prospective cohort study of cardiometabolic diseases among 3 American Indian communities in rural Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota (“the Dakotas”). In participants from Arizona and the Dakotas, drinking water was probably the major source of inorganic arsenic while in participants from Oklahoma, diet, including rice, flour and other grains, was probably the main source. Urine arsenic concentrations and measures of arsenic metabolism were stable in SHS participants during the time of follow-up, supporting the use of urine arsenic as a suitable surrogate for chronic arsenic exposure and metabolism. In the SHS, we recently found that higher inorganic arsenic exposure was associated with higher diabetes prevalence, supporting the need to further investigate the prospective associations between arsenic exposure and metabolism with diabetes incidence.

Method

Study population

In 1989-1991, the Strong Heart Study examined 4,549 American Indian men and women aged 45 to 74 years at baseline enrollment from 13 tribes and communities. All community members were invited to participate in Arizona and Oklahoma, whereas a cluster sampling procedure was used in the Dakotas. The overall participation rate was 62%. Compared with nonparticipants, participants were similar in age, body mass index, and prevalence of self-reported diabetes but were more likely to be female and to have self-reported hypertension. Participants were invited to subsequent clinical visits between 1993 and 1995, and between 1998 and 1999. The SHS population is very stable, with low migration rates due to strong cultural and social links in the community. The Indian Health Service, institutional review boards, and participating communities approved the study protocol. All participants provided informed consent.

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The prevalence of diabetes in the Strong Heart Study in 1989-1991 was 50%. For this study, we used data from participants free of diabetes and with sufficient urine available for arsenic measurements at the baseline visit (N=1,986) (Supplementary figure 1). We further excluded 117 participants lost during follow up or missing both fasting glucose and 2-hour plasma glucose data during follow-up, 105 participants with inorganic or methylated arsenic species below the limit of detection as it is difficult to estimate arsenic methylation in these participants, and 70 participants missing other variables of interest leaving 1,694 participants for this analysis. Socidemographic and diabetes risk factors were similar between our study population and the overall Strong Heart Study population free of diabetes at baseline (data not shown).

Data Collection

Baseline clinical information consisted of a personal interview, physical examination, fasting blood sample, and spot urine sample. Sociodemographic (age, sex, and education) and lifestyle (smoking and alcohol status) information was collected by trained and certified interviewers using standardized questionnaires. Physical examination measurements (height, weight, waist and hip circumferences, and systolic and diastolic pressures) and bio-specimen collection (blood and urine) were conducted by centrally trained nurses and medical assistants following a standardized protocol. Detailed procedures of clinical and laboratory examinations have been described. Estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula. Participants were asked to fast for 12 hours before blood samples were collected in the morning, at baseline and in the two subsequent visits. Spot urine samples were also collected in the morning and were frozen with 1 to 2 hours of collection. The biospecimens were stored at -70°C or lower before analyses. Diabetes measurements

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Fasting plasma glucose level was determined by a hexokinase method at MedStar Health Research Institute, Washington, DC. A 2-hour, 75g oral glucose tolerance test was performed on all participants except those who were under insulin therapy, remained with poor glycemic control on oral medication, or had a fasting glucose level greater than 225 mg/dL determined by Accu-Chek II (Baxter Healthcare, Grand Prairie, Texas). Glycated hemoglobin was measured at the laboratory of the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases Epidemiology and Clinical Research Branch, Phoenix, Arizona, by a high-performance liquid-chromatographic (HPLC) method. Diabetes was defined as a fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL, plasma glucose ≥200 mg/dL 2–h after ingestion of 75 g oral glucose load, self-reported diabetes history, or self-reported use of insulin or oral hypoglycemic medications.

Urine arsenic

To assess long-term arsenic exposure, we measured urine arsenic species after confirmation that concentrations were stable over a 10-year period. To assess arsenic methylation profiles, we estimated the relative proportions of each urine arsenic species (iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%) standardized by the urine total arsenic concentration were utilized to approximate individual’s arsenic methylation capacity. For example, MMA% is determined as urine MMA [(MMA(V) +MMA(III)] concentration divided by urine total inorganic arsenic concentration(iAs + MMA +DMA). In a subsample of diabetes-free participants with urine arsenic measures repeated over the 3 study visits (n=207), the individual (single) intra-class correlation coefficient for arsenic measures over a 10-year period was 0.60 for the sum of inorganic and methylated species and 0.55, 0.59, and 0.69 for iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%, respectively, confirming the moderate long-term stability of arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism in this cohort. Detailed analytic methods and associated quality control procedures for arsenic analysis have been published. Arsenic species concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)

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coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) that served as the arsenic selective detector (Agilent 1100 HPLC and Agilent 7700x ICP-MS, Agilent Technologies, Santa Clara, California). Arsenic speciation can discriminate species directly related to iAs exposure (arsenite, arsenate,

monomethylarsonate [MMA], and dimethylarsinate [DMA]) from those related to organic arsenicals in seafood (arsenobetaine as an overall marker of seafood arsenicals), which are generally considered nontoxic. Urine concentrations of arsenobetaine and other arsenic cations were very low (median, 0.71; interquartile range, 0.41 to 1.69 μg/g creatinine), confirming that seafood intake was low in this sample, and indicating that DMA mainly came from inorganic arsenic exposure. The limit of detection (LOD) for total arsenic and for iAs (arsenite plus arsenate), MMA, DMA, and arsenobetaine plus other arsenic cations was 0.1 μg/L. In the original cohort, for participants with arsenic species concentrations below LOD (5.2% for inorganic arsenic, 0.8% for MMA, 0.03% for DMA), levels were imputed as the LOD/√2 . Based on previous simulation studies, this “fill-in” approach can be unbiased if the percentage of measurements below detection limits is small (5–10%). Because a major goal of the study was to evaluate the role of arsenic metabolism in diabetes development, we excluded participants with iAs (5.2%), MMA (0.8%) and DMA (0.03%) below the limit of detection from the original cohort. An in-house reference urine and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Studies No. 18 Human Urine were analyzed together with the samples. Interassay coefficients of variation for iAs, MMA, DMA and

arsenobetaine for the in-house reference urine were 6.0%, 6.5%, 5.9%, and 6.5%, respectively.

From the risk assessment perspective, the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species in the urine is used to estimate arsenic exposure from multiple sources and exposure routes. The estimated risk based on urine concentrations of arsenic metabolites can inform and help evaluate dose-response relationships related to exposure levels and inform risk assessment. The relative proportions of arsenic metabolites (iAs%, MMA% and DMA%) are utilized to estimate the extent to which inorganic arsenic is metabolized in the human body and inform on different arsenic metabolic profiles across people. This

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information is also useful as part of the susceptibility evaluation in risk assessment. The assessment of arsenic metabolism in addition to concentrations levels has been recommended by the 2013 National Research Council Report on arsenic.

Statistical methods

We used the sum of urine inorganic (iAS; arsenite and arsenate) and methylated arsenic species (MMA and DMA) as the biomarker of inorganic arsenic exposure from multiple sources. We used the proportions of urine iAs, MMA and DMA over the sum of inorganic and methylated species, expressed as iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%, to evaluate arsenic metabolism. We graphically described the distribution of arsenic metabolism in people with and without diabetes using a triplot, a diagram with 3 axes that is well-suited to represent arsenic metabolism (Figure 1).

The prospective associations between arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with incident diabetes were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. Arsenic exposure was evaluated based on the urinary concentration of the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species. We also evaluated the urinary concentration of iAs, MMA and DMA in separate models. Arsenic metabolism was evaluated as iAs%, MMA% and DMA%. Similar to previous studies, we first entered each arsenic metabolism

biomarker alone in the regression model together with the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species to adjust for arsenic exposure. Entering each biomarker alone is difficult to interpret, as the increase in iAs, for instance, could be related to a decrease in either MMA or DMA. To address this problem, we used a “leave-one-out” approach. In this method, two biomarkers are entered at a time, e.g. iAs% and MMA%, leaving out the third one, DMA%, while holding constant urine arsenic

concentrations. In the example, the regression coefficients for iAs% and MMA% estimate the hazard ratio associated with an increase in %iAs by decreasing DMA%, and with an increase in MMA% by decreasing DMA%, respectively. This method is used in the nutrition literature to estimate the specific

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contribution of different macronutrients beyond their contribution to total energy intake as well as in the hematology literature to estimate the specific contribution of different blood cell types beyond total cell count.

All arsenic variables were modeled per interquartile range increment (in the log scale for urine arsenic species concentrations and in the original scale for % species) and using restricted cubic splines. We also modeled them using quartiles with similar findings (data not shown). The time scale for survival analysis was age. To handle left-truncation induced at time of enrollment and appropriately aligning risk sets on the age scale, the late entry method was conducted using age at baseline as the individual entry time. The exit time for participants with newly diagnosed diabetes (N=218) was the date of second or third visits. For participants with known diabetes status and data on diabetes duration, the exit date was the self-reported duration subtracted from the visit date (N=178). To account for differences across geographical areas, we added the regions (Arizona, Oklahoma and North/South Dakota) as strata to the Cox proportional hazards models 1 to 4. This method allows the form of the underlying hazard function to vary across levels of study regions. Models were adjusted progressively. Initially, we adjusted for sex and education (no high school, some high school, and high school or more). We then adjusted further for smoking status (current, former, never) and alcohol drinking status (current, former, never). Finally, we further adjusted for body mass index and waist–hip ratio as continuous variables. All models were adjusted for urine creatinine to account for urine dilution. In an alternative analysis we adjusted for specific gravity instead of urine creatinine. Both models yielded similar results (models for specific gravity are not shown). We confirmed that the proportional hazards assumption was fulfilled based on Schoenfeld residuals.

We conducted additional sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of our primary findings. First, we evaluated the prospective associations of arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with

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incident diabetes by fitting generalized gamma distributions to survival times. Model selection was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and estimates for the shape parameter indicated that log-normal distributions were appropriate. This approach yielded consistent findings as the Cox proportional hazards model (data not shown). Second, as the diabetes onset date is not exact, we also conducted multiple logistic regression and Poisson regression to examine the robustness of the associations. The conclusions were consistent with our Cox proportional hazards model (not shown). Third, because mortality rate was high in the SHS population and there is a link between cancer and arsenic metabolism, we conducted competing risk analysis using death and cancer mortality as competing events, respectively, based on Fine and Gray’s method, with similar results. We also used generalized gamma modeling to describe the competing relationship between mortality and incident diabetes comparing the highest and the lowest quartiles of urine inorganic arsenic concentrations (supplementary figure 2). Forth, we repeated the analysis for arsenic exposure including participants who had iAs, MMA or DMA below the limit of detection (LOD) by replacing levels below the LOD by the LOD divided by the square root of 2, also with similar findings (not shown). Fifth, we applied two additional urine dilution correction methods by adjusting urine creatinine in the model and by adjusting specific gravity using Levine’s approach, with consistent results (data not shown).

All statistical analyses were performed in Stata/IC, version 12 (StataCorp, College Station, Texas) and R, version 3.0.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria [www.r-project.org]).

Results

The median urine concentration of inorganic plus methylated arsenic species was 10.2 μg/L (interquartile range, 6.1 to 17.7 μg/L). Urine arsenic concentrations were higher in participants from Arizona (median 14.3 μg/L), followed by the Dakotas (11.9 μg/L) and Oklahoma (median 7.0 μg/L ). The median (interquartile range) for iAs%, MMA% and DMA% was 8.3 (5.7 to 11.3)%, 15.2 (11.7 to 18.8)%

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and 76.4 (70.3 to 81.4)%, respectively. Men, participants from the Dakotas, current smokers and participants with lower body mass index had higher MMA%, and correspondingly lower DMA% (Figure 2).

Over 11,263.2 person-years of follow-up, 396 participants developed diabetes. Diabetes incidence was 35.2 per 1000 person-years. Participants with incident diabetes were more likely to be female, from Arizona, and obese at baseline (Table 1). Younger age was borderline associated with incident diabetes (p-value 0.05). Urine concentrations of inorganic plus methylated arsenic were similar in participants with and without incident diabetes. Participants with incident diabetes had lower MMA% and higher DMA% compared to those without incident diabetes (Table 1, Figure 1). Arsenic exposure, assessed as the summed concentrations in urine of inorganic and methylated arsenic species or as each of the individual arsenic species, was not associated with incident diabetes in any of the multivariable adjusted models (Table 2 and Supplement Figure 3).

For arsenic metabolism, the multi-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of diabetes incidence per 5% increase in arsenic metabolism biomarkers entered one-by-one in the model (conventional approach) was 1.00 (0.87-1.14) for iAs%, 0.79 (0.68-0.92) for MMA% and 1.17 (1.00-1.36) for DMA% (Table 3, model 4). Using the leave-one-out approach, we confirmed that higher MMA% was associated with lower diabetes incidence. The hazard ratios (95% CI) of diabetes incidence for an 5% increase in MMA% were 0.69 (0.52, 0.90) and 0.76 (0.65, 0.89) when iAs% and DMA% were, respectively, left-out of the model (Table 3, model 4). In other words, when MMA% and iAs% were in the model, the hazard ratio of incident diabetes of MMA% was the effect of “replacing” DMA% with MMA% while holding iAs% constant. The same interpretation applied when DMA% and iAs% and when MMA% and DMA% were in the model simultaneously. Consistently, higher MMA% was related to lower diabetes incidence, showing a linear relationship in flexible dose-response analyses when either iAs% or DMA% were left-out of the

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model (Figure 3). DMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence only when substituted for MMA % and iAs% was associated with higher diabetes incidence only when substituted for MMA% (Table 3, Figure 3).

The association between MMA% and diabetes incidence was similar by age, sex, study site, obesity, and the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic concentrations (Supplementary table 1).

Discussion

Arsenic metabolism, but not inorganic arsenic exposure, was prospectively associated with diabetes incidence in American Indians from Arizona, Oklahoma and North/South Dakota. Higher iAs% and DMA% in urine, because of lower MMA%, was associated with higher diabetes incidence.

Consistently, higher MMA% was associated with lower risk of diabetes. The associations persisted after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, smoking, alcohol, kidney function, and measures of adiposity. These novel findings support that arsenic metabolism patterns, in particular lower MMA%, may be a predisposing factor for diabetes. Arsenic exposure, measured by the concentration of inorganic plus methylated arsenic species in urine, however, was not associated with diabetes incidence in our study population. The study was conducted in a population with a high burden of obesity and diabetes and characterized by low-to-moderate arsenic exposure levels.

Non-genetic determinants of arsenic metabolism include sex (women have higher DMA% than men), smoking (never smokers generally have higher DMA% than current smokers), nutritional status (dietary folate and vitamin deficiencies are associated with lower DMA%), and BMI (obese participants have higher DMA%). In women, MMA% decreases and DMA% increases during pregnancy. While the risk of gestational diabetes is also increased, a connection with changes in arsenic metabolic patterns during pregnancy is unknown. Interestingly, in our study the arsenic metabolic pattern associated with

increased diabetes risk paralleled that observed during pregnancy, i.e., lower MMA% and higher DMA%.

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Genetic determinants, especially variants in arsenic (III) methyltransferase (AS3MT), have also been related with arsenic methylation patterns in urine. Additional research is needed to evaluate whether genetic variants play a role in the connection between arsenic metabolism profile and diabetes.

Little is known about arsenic metabolism and diabetes as compared to its role in cancer and cardiovascular disease. In those studies, conducted mostly in Taiwan and Bangladesh, higher MMA% was associated with the development of lung, bladder and skin cancers and with cardiovascular disease including atherosclerosis and peripheral vascular disease. In one small case-control study from Bangladesh, higher DMA% was associated with increased prevalence of diabetes, although the association was not statistically significant. High BMI has also been significantly associated with low MMA% and high DMA% in urine in adults from Mexico and the Strong Heart Study. In our study, adjusting for baseline BMI and waist-hip ratio slightly attenuated the association between arsenic metabolism and incident diabetes, although the association remained. How this specific pattern (low MMA% with either high iAs% or DMA%) may affect individual susceptibility to endocrine and metabolic diseases remains unclear.

Substantial experimental research supports the role of arsenic exposure in diabetes

development. Experimental studies, in general, have not focused on differences by arsenic metabolism. High MMA% may be considered as a marker of insufficient methylation capacity to DMA. Recent

experimental studies have shown that methylation could be a bio-activation process, with DMA(III) being a potent and highly toxic dimethylated arsenic species. In adipocytes, DMA(III) impairs

insulin-stimulated glucose uptake. In addition, DMA(III) may induce pancreatic -cell apoptosis and inhibit glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in murine pancreatic islet cells. These experimental findings were consistent with a cross-sectional study from Mexico, where the concentrations of DMA(III) in urine were associated with diabetes prevalence. In our study, similar to other large epidemiologic studies, we

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measured total MMA and DMA, as MMA(III) and DMA(III) are unstable in urine and quickly oxidized to their pentavalent forms. The rapid oxidation of MMA(III) and DMA(III) in urine to their pentavalent counterparts makes estimation of the trivalent methylated species very difficult in epidemiological studies. However, participants with higher DMA% may be exposed to more DMA(III) given the same amount of total inorganic arsenic exposure.

The association of arsenic metabolism with diabetes could also be related to one carbon metabolism, as S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) is the methyl donor for arsenic metabolism. Recent experimental evidence has shown that SAM plays an important role in lipogenesis and in the

development of diabetes. An in vitro study in Caenorhabditis elegans, an experimental model for human diseases and metabolic pathways, found that the synthesis of SAM regulated the expression of genes required for adequate lipid metabolism. In HepG2 human hepatocytes, the optimal balance between SAM and S-adenosylhomocystine (SAH) was critical to maintain appropriate expression of gluconeogenic enzymes. In addition, in a cross-sectional study of 50-75 year old adults from the Netherlands (N=648), plasma SAM was positively associated with fat mass and truncal adiposity, although reverse causation could not be excluded. We cannot discount the possibility that arsenic metabolism acts as a marker of one carbon metabolism. In our study we had no serological measures of one carbon metabolism and dietary estimations were only available in 20% of the sample.In any case, our findings indicate that more research is needed to understand the impact of arsenic methylation and other methylation processes related to one-carbon metabolism on the development of diabetes.

In our study, we found no association between arsenic exposure and incident diabetes, although cross-sectionally we had found an association. Inorganic arsenic and its methylated metabolites may induce diabetes by impairing insulin production by pancreatic ß cells or inhibiting basal or insulin-stimulated glucose uptake by peripheral tissues. Relevant mechanisms by which arsenic could affect

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cell function and insulin sensitivity include oxidative stress, glucose uptake and transport,

gluconeogenesis, adipocyte differentiation, calcium signaling, and epigenetic effects. A number of recent studies have reported a prospective association between arsenic exposure and diabetes development It is possible that arsenic exposure is not a risk factor for diabetes in our population. At the same time, the presence of an association between arsenic exposure and diabetes cross-sectionally but not

prospectively could be related to competing risk of premature death and differential survival bias that may mask the true association in our population. Because arsenic was strongly associated with diabetes at baseline and the prevalence of diabetes at baseline was 50%, another possible explanation for the lack of association is that the pool of susceptible participants is too small for the association to be seen prospectively. In support of this possibility, age was not positively associated with diabetes incidence either (Table 1). BMI, however, remained a strong risk factor.

Strengths of our study include standardized protocol to collect data over the follow-up, high-quality laboratory methods for measuring concentrations of urine arsenic species at baseline and careful modeling of the dynamic of arsenic metabolism including the leave-one-out approach. Another

advantage is that we use the sum of inorganic arsenic and methylated arsenic metabolites in the urine to represent inorganic arsenic exposure that integrates different sources and routes of exposure and avoids the measurement error problems associated with seafood exposure. This study had several limitations. First, the urine arsenic concentrations and metabolism were measured in a single sample at baseline to represent internal doses and individual metabolism profiles. However, we have confirmed that arsenic levels in urine and arsenic metabolism were constant over 10-years in this population. Second,

adjustment for adiposity could induce over-adjustment as obesity may be in the causal pathway between arsenic metabolism and diabetes. Third, our population was between 40 and 74 years of age and the burden of diabetes at baseline was already 50%. It is thus possible that participants susceptible of developing diabetes at baseline were different from the source population. Studies in younger

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populations with a lower prevalence of diabetes at baseline are needed. Forth, the study was observational and we cannot exclude the possibility of residual or unmeasured confounding, for example, by accurate smoking and drinking information, or by other measures of one carbon

metabolism. However, our results were consistent after further adjustment for folic acid, vitamin B6, and cobalamin based on food frequency questionnaire in the 20% subsample with this information available (data not shown).

In conclusion, arsenic metabolism, in particular low MMA%, was associated with increased incidence of diabetes and could reflect individual susceptibility for diabetes development. Arsenic metabolism is related to one-carbon metabolism, and could be functioning as a surrogate measure of one-carbon metabolism. Research is needed to assess the relationship between arsenic metabolism and diabetes in different populations, evaluate the diabetogenic role of arsenic metabolism in experimental settings, and clarify whether the development of diabetes is related to arsenic metabolism specifically or to one-carbon metabolism in general.

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