The Dynamic Model of Innovation Diffusion of Next Generation TV Game- An Example of Wii
陳明郎、羅世輝
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
The console industry competes vehemently in recent years. No matter on-line game or console game machine, the new products developed constantly. Since Nintendo’s new products- Wii developed, selling volumes has already exceeds twenty million in November, 2006, and also get the leading position in the console game industry. Nintendo Wii is different from the competitors of Sony-PS3, Microsoft- X-BOX360 which those are gorgeous of special feature. Wii has the characteristics of simple operation and interaction, it is not only attracts young game ethnicity, but also females, seniors, and children; which make Wii accumulate its customers base quickly. About Wii's diffusion quickly in game market, the purpose of this research is trying to base on the theory of innovation diffusion, and combines the method of the system dynamics to deal with the behavior of dynamic complexity. This study will build the dynamic model about the underlying structure of Wii’s diffusion. Through the model will make us deeply understand those dynamic interactive relationship about Wii’s market. In this model, there are some important feedback loops and key variables will be discussed. Those are “the loop of Market Diffusion”, “the loop of Replacement Purchase”, and “the loop of Borrow Structure”. In this research, we also discuss and simulate the future development based on various scenarios.
Keywords : Wii;innovation of diffusion;system dynamics
Table of Contents
中文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii 英文摘要 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
iv 誌謝辭 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． v 內容目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
． vi 表目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． viii 圖目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
．．． ix 第一章 緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1 第一節 電視遊戲機產業背景介紹．．．．
．．．． 1 第二節 動機與目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3 第三節 研究範圍．．．．．．．．．．
．．．．． 4 第四節 研究流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4 第二章 文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．
．．．．．． 5 第一節 遊戲機之定義及屬性．．．．．．．．．． 5 第二節 創新之定義及分類．．．．
．．．．．．． 6 第三節 擴散理論模式探討．．．．．．．．．．． 17 第四節 系統動力學相關文獻．
．．．．．．．．． 24 第五節 擴散模式應用之系統動力學研究．．．．． 32 第三章 系統動力學之概念模式 分析．．．．．．．．． 37 第一節 系統動力學之定義．．．．．．．．．．． 37 第二節 系統動力學之 結構分析．．．．．．．．． 39 第三節 系統動力學建模程序．．．．．．．．．． 44 第四章 研究分析與結 果．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 46 第一節 Wii擴散模式創新係數及模仿係數之估計． 46 第二節 Wii擴 散模式之重複購買結構．．．．．． 49 第三節 Wii擴散模式之借用環路結構．．．．．． 52 第四節 價 格變數對擴散模式影響．．．．．．．． 58 第五節 Wii擴散模型總覽．．．．．．．．．．． 59 第五章 結 論與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 60 第一節 結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 60 第二 節 後續研究建議．．．．．．．．．．．．． 62 參考文獻 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 64 附 錄A 日本Wii銷售量彙整表．．．．．．．．．．． 86 附錄B 方程式系統彙整．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 87 表 1- 1 遊戲機的發展趨勢．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 2 表 2- 1 創新定義匯整表(國外)．．．．．．．．．．．． 6 表 2- 2 創新定義匯整表(國內)．．．．．．．．．．．． 10 表 2- 3 創新定義與Wii屬性對照表．．．．．．．．．． 12 表 2- 4 創新類型匯整表(國外)．．．．．．．．．．．． 15 表 2- 5 創新類型匯整表(國內)．．．．．．．．．．．． 16 表 2- 6 系統動力學在社會經濟系統之應用匯整表．．．． 29 表 2- 7 國內外系統動力學相關文獻匯整表．．．．．．． 30 表 3- 1 系統動力學定義彙整表．．．．．．．．．．．． 38 圖 1- 1 研究流程圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4 圖 2- 1 Rogers之採用者分類圖．．．．．．．．．．．．． 18 圖 2- 2 Bass擴散模型之概念架構圖．．．．．．．．．．． 20 圖 2- 3 S 型擴散曲線圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 21 圖 2- 4 Bass模型之分析性架構圖．．．．．．．．．．．．
22 圖 2- 5 Paich and Sterman市場面因果結構模型圖．．．．．． 34 圖 2- 6 Milling創新擴散模式之概念結構．．．．．．
．．． 35 圖 3- 1 人民航空公司的「成長與投資不足」環路圖．．．． 41 圖 3- 2 ithinkTM之基本符號－存量(Stock)．．．
．．．．．． 42 圖 3- 3 ithinkTM之基本符號－流量(Flow)．．．．．．．．． 43 圖 3- 4 ithinkTM之基本流圖(Flow Diagram)．．．．．．．． 43 圖 3- 5 ithinkTM之簡單回饋環路系統流圖．．．．．．．． 44 圖 3- 6 模式建構程序圖．．
．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 45 圖 4- 1 市場擴散結構圖．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 47 圖 4- 2 Wii市場基本擴 散變化型態．．．．．．．．．．． 48 圖 4- 3 Wii銷售實際與預測值比較圖．．．．．．．．．． 49 圖 4- 4 擴散模式－
重複購買結構圖．．．．．．．．．．． 50 圖 4- 5 不同產品壽命之採用率變化趨勢圖(模擬一)．．．． 51 圖 4- 6 擴散模 式－借用環路結構圖．．．．．．．．．．． 52 圖 4- 7 不同借用係數採用趨勢變化圖(模擬二)．．．．．． 54 圖 4- 8 不 同流失影響係數之趨勢變化圖(借用係數=0.5；模 擬三) ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 55 圖 4- 9 不同流失 影響係數之趨勢變化圖(借用係數=0.3；模 擬四) ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 55 圖 4-10 不同流失影響係 數之趨勢變化圖(借用係數=0.1；模 擬五) ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 56 圖 4-11 降價後採用趨勢圖(模擬 六)．．．．．．．．．．． 58 圖 4-12 Wii動態擴散模式總覽圖．．．．．．．．．．．． 59
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