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Are We Family?

Inspecting the Influence of Taiwanese People's Country, Nation, Culture, and Civil

Identification on the Perception of Relationship with “China”

Chengshan Frank Liu Associate Professor

Institute of Political Science

National Sun Yat-Sen University (Taiwan)

WPSA Annual Meeting, Seattle, April 17-19, 2014

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Research Questions

What are the determinant factors that influence Taiwanese people’s identification with the state, the nation, and the relationship with PRC, among all that scholars and observers expect to be important?

How people in Taiwan think about themselves in terms of nation and country?

How do they think about the relationship between them and the mainland?

How do Taiwanese think about future? Do Taiwanese people as a whole remain the legitimate foundation of ROC on Taiwan?

How much generation difference has occurred regarding their country, national, cultural, and civil identities?

Who, and why do they resist the idea of unification with the mainland China?

Will they become willing so if PRC becomes democratic?

Do partisanship of KMT or DPP matters?

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Concepts and Definition

Country Identification (guojia rentong)

“Independence” and “separationism”

National Identification (minzu rentong)

“Unification”

Democracy

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Data

2013 Survey (January 23 to February 4, 2013), N=1,078

2014 Survey (January 10 to 24, 2014), N=1,072

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Models

One’s preference about Unification and Independence is a function of

Country Identification +

Pan-National Identification + National Identification +

Cultural Identification + Civil Identification + Party Identification +

Generation + China Experiences + Gender

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Measurement of Country Identification

2013:

Some people say that our country‘s name is Taiwan. Do you agree?

Some people say that our country's name is Republic of China (Zhonghuaminguo). Do you agree?

Some people say that we should be proud of being a citizen of Republic of China. Do you agree?

Some people say that Taiwanese should establish own country. Do you agree?

Some people say that Hong-Kong and Shang-Hai are foreign cities. Do you agree?

2014:

Do you hope that one day ROC changes its name to Taiwan or Republic of Taiwan?

Do you hope that Taiwan and the mainland China become one country?

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Measurement of Pan-National Identification

2013:

Some people say that Taiwanese and Chinese in

mainland China belong to the same nation (minzu). Do you agree?

Some people say that Hong Kongers and Chinese in mainland China belong to the same nation (minzu). Do you agree?

Some people say that people in mainland China are our compatriots/fellows. Do you agree?’

2014: (N/A)

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Measurement of National Identification

2013:

Some call themselves Taiwanese, some Chinese and some both. What about you?

2014:

Some people say they are Taiwanese, some say Chinese, and some say both. What about you?

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Measurement of Culture Identification

2013:

Some people say that our culture is authentic/orthodox Chinese culture. Do you agree?

2014: (N/A)

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Measurement of Civil Identification

2013:

Some people said that our democracy is better than the mainland China’s political system. Do you agree?

2014:

Do you believe that our democracy and freedom can change the mainland China?

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Measurement of Unification Preference

2013:

If both China’s and Taiwan’s political system are

democratic, do you like to see the unification of Taiwan and China?

Some people say that the two sides of the Strait

ultimately will be come one country. Do you agree?

2014:

Do you hope that Taiwan and the mainland China become one country?

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Measurement of Generations

1st generation (born by 1931)

2nd generation (born 1932~1953) 3rd generation (born 1954~1968) 4th generation (born 1969~1978) 5th generation (born 1979~1988) 6th generation(born 1989~1993)

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Myths (1/2)

Country identification with ROC positively influences one’s attitudes toward future unification with the

mainland China.

Chinese national identity positively influence attitudes toward unification

Culture identification positively influences one’s

preference for unification.

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Myths (2/2)

Culture identification positively influences the formation of dual national identity

KMT supporters imagine about a greater China DPP supporters seek creating a new country

Prejudice about the superiority of democracy enhances

one’s national identification with Taiwanese.

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Hypotheses Indirectly Supported

Strong country identification with Taiwan (Republic) negatively influences one’s attitudes toward unification with China.

Prejudice about the superiority of democracy makes Taiwanese people to distinguish themselves from the mainland China.

Confidence in democracy increase one’s willingness to negotiate with China.

Senior generations are more attached to the great China concept.

Younger generations are likely to be Taiwan nationalists.

Not supported in the unification models in Table 6, but it is indirectly supported in Table 2 where the 5th generation prefer creating own country)

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Hypotheses Supported

Pan-national identification positively influence attitudes toward unification

Taiwan national identity negatively influence attitudes toward unification

Culture identification positively influences one’s acceptance of Hong Kong.

Younger generations are alienated from the great China

concept. (indirectly supported in Table 5 where the 4th ,5th , and 6th generations see the mainland China as enemy).

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Summary of the Patterns

national identification and country identification are the core driving force of opinions about unification with the mainland China. Generation gaps regarding attitudes toward the

mainland China exists.

Attitudes toward Taiwan’s democracy also matters in one’s attitudes toward unification—prejudice leads to independence (but not to nationalism) while confidence leads to cooperation.

However, one should be aware that (1) identifying with ROC and Chinese are not linked to attitudes toward unification; (2) dual national identification is not influenced by (Chinese)

cultural identification (but by country identification and pan- national identification). (3) KMT supporters are not necessary pro-unification and DPP supporters cannot be labeled as new country creators (or “separatists”).

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Conclusion

Taiwanese people’s public opinion about mainland China policies is driven by national and country identification.

Rejection to unification has been a political consensus.

But two sensitive issues require inspection in future opinion studies:

What to do with ROC?

going independent from ROC or abandoning ROC?

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Discussion

Legitimacy of ROC in Taiwan

ROC the last greatest common denominator?

Democratic Prejudice vs. Democratic confidence The Low Approval Rate of President Ma Ying-Jeou

Future Studies:

Perception about the roles of the U.S. and PRC

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Limits of This Study & Future

Inconsistency of the variable sets between the 2013 and 2014 datasets

The high missing rate of party identification variable.

SEM

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Students Protest against ECFA

NYT 2014.3.30

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Thank You

For details about the analysis and a copy of this

presentation, please feel free to contact Cheng-shan

(Frank) Liu. frankcsliu@berkeley.com

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Are We Family?

Inspecting the Influence of Taiwanese People's Country, Nation, Culture, and Civil

Identification on the Perception of Relationship with “China”

Chengshan Frank Liu

Institute of Political Science

National Sun Yat-Sen University (Taiwan)

WPSA Annual Meeting, Seattle, April 17-19, 2014

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