CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2015

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Government of Macao Special Administrative Region Statistics and Census Service

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2015

- The Composite CPI for December (107.31) increased by 3.73% year-on-year, with notable increase in the price index of Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, Education and Household Goods & Furnishings.

- The Composite CPI increased by 0.25% month-to-month. Price index of Clothing & Footwear, Recreation & Culture and Transport registered increase;

meanwhile, lower prices of fresh pork and fruits tapered off the rise in the price index of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages.

- The inflation rate for 2015 stood at 4.56%. Higher rentals for dwellings, dearer charges for eating out and rising rentals for parking spaces together pushed up the annual inflation rate by 3.7 percentage points; meanwhile, receding prices of gasoline and Liquefied Petroleum Gas helped alleviate inflationary pressures.

Consumer Price Index 10/2013 – 09/2014 = 100 Composite

CPI CPI-A CPI-B Average index value for 2015 105.72 105.92 104.10 For December 2015

Index value 107.31 107.54 105.41

Year-on-year change (%) 3.73 3.83 2.89 Month-to-month change (%) 0.25 0.24 0.35 Annualized change (%) 4.56 4.88 3.67 Year-on-year change for the

fourth quarter of 2015 (%) 3.89 4.00 2.90

Movements of the CPI

100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Index Value Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B

Changes of the Composite CPI for December 2015 % Sections of Goods and Services Weight Year-

on- year

Month-

month to- Annualized

Index 100.00 3.73 0.25 4.56

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.97 4.04 0.06 4.87 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.92 37.85 -1.04 17.33 Clothing & Footwear 6.46 -2.99 1.53 -0.08 Housing & Fuels 26.70 4.14 -0.04 8.06 Household Goods & Furnishings 3.29 6.31 0.02 5.00

Health 3.06 4.75 0.09 5.67

Transport 10.96 4.52 0.82 0.83

Communication 2.53 -0.79 -0.15 -0.26 Recreation & Culture 4.79 0.61 1.49 1.23

Education 2.91 8.93 - 4.89

Miscellaneous Goods & Services 9.41 2.16 0.10 2.39 - Absolute value equals zero

Year-on-Year Change

2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

% Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B

Annualized Change

3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

% Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B

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www.dsec.gov.mo 2016.01

2015

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Annual Average Composite CPI

Section of Goods and Services Weight Index for 2015

Year-on-year Change Contribution to the Year-on-year Change in the

Index for 2015

2015 2014

%

Index 100.00 105.72 4.56 6.05 100.00

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.97 106.09 4.87 6.11 30.86

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.92 117.99 17.33 3.21 3.46

Clothing & Footwear 6.46 100.47 -0.08 1.91 -0.11

Housing & Fuels 26.70 110.17 8.06 11.93 47.40

Household Goods & Furnishings 3.29 105.56 5.00 4.73 3.57

Health 3.06 106.75 5.67 4.64 3.79

Transport 10.96 101.58 0.83 2.01 1.97

Communication 2.53 99.50 -0.26 -0.31 -0.14

Recreation & Culture 4.79 102.21 1.23 4.31 1.28

Education 2.91 103.33 4.89 2.33 3.03

Miscellaneous Goods & Services 9.41 103.13 2.39 3.47 4.90

Movements of the Composite CPI by Month for 2015

Month Index value

Year- year on-

Month-

month to- Annualized ▪

▪

The month-to-month change of the Composite CPI for 2015 varied between -0.03%

and 0.90%. January recorded the only month-to-month decrease (-0.03%) of the year, attributable to seasonal sale of winter clothing, lower charges for package tours and reduced prices of gasoline.

Under the effect of the Lunar New Year, the Composite CPI for February showed the largest increase (+0.90%) due to higher prices of fresh food and produce, as well as rising charges for eating out, package tours and hairdressing services.

The year-on-year change of the monthly Composite CPI varied between 3.73%

and 5.30%. The rate of increase tapered off constantly since May owing to slower growth in rentals for dwellings, as well as falling gasoline prices during the second half of the year.

The annualized change of the Composite CPI decelerated from +5.91% in January to +4.56% in December. Analysed by the annualized change of the Composite CPI by section, the increment in Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, Education and Health was significantly higher compared with 2014 due to dearer tobacco prices, higher tuition fee and rising charges for out-patient services.

Lower rentals for dwellings, reduced charges for package tours and lower prices of fresh seafood and fruits slowed the increase in Housing & Fuels, Recreation &

Culture and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages. On the contrary, Clothing &

Footwear turned into a marginal decrease, while Communication saw continuous decline.

%

January 103.41 4.75 -0.03 5.91

February 104.34 5.30 0.90 5.88

March 104.54 5.10 0.19 5.77

April 104.86 4.51 0.31 5.62

May 105.39 4.93 0.50 5.52

June 105.90 4.91 0.48 5.43

July 106.13 4.76 0.22 5.33

August 106.34 4.64 0.19 5.21

September 106.49 4.23 0.14 5.08 October 106.94 4.16 0.42 4.91

November 107.04 3.77 0.10 4.71

December 107.31 3.73 0.25 4.56

2 | Consumer Price Index December 2015

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Movements of the Composite CPI by Section for 2015

Section of Goods and Services

Year-on-Year Change

Contribution to the Change of the

Composite CPI Movements of the CPI

%

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 4.87 30.86 Notable increase was observed in the price indices of eating out (+6.10%), meat and meat products (+5.74%) and cereals and bread (+3.50%), while the indices of edible oils & fats and fruits decreased by 6.36% and 0.48% respectively. The contribution of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages to the change in the global index was second to that of Housing & Fuels, pushing up the annual inflation rate by 1.41 percentage points.

Compared with 2014, average retail prices of bananas (from $11.71 to $13.13 per kg), eggs (from $1.36 to $1.45 each), Chinese lettuce (from $15.89 to $17.16 per kg) and fresh pork (from $68.97 to $ 72.30 per kg) rose markedly, while the prices of pomfret (from $156.41 to $133.35 per kg), sole (from $165.23 to $152.69 per kg) and apples (from $4.38 to $4.08 each) saw significant decrease.

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 17.33 3.46 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco registered the highest increase in 2015. Price index of tobacco went up by 29.24% as the Government raised the tobacco tax in July;

meanwhile, price index of alcoholic beverages rose by 0.91%.

Clothing & Footwear -0.08 -0.11 In addition to Communication, price index of Clothing & Footwear also saw decline in 2015. Price indices of other articles of clothing & clothing accessories, children &

infants’ clothing, men’s clothing and infants’ footwear rose by 5.61%, 3.39%, 1.48%

and 1.41%, while the indices of men’s footwear, women’s footwear & clothing dropped by 3.74%, 1.01% and 1.01% respectively. As a result, price index of Clothing &

Footwear recorded a slight decrease year-on-year.

Housing & Fuels 8.06 47.40 Despite a slower growth compared with 2014, price index of Housing & Fuels still had the largest contribution to the increase in the global index, driving up the annual inflation rate by 2.16 percentage points owing to higher rentals for dwellings.

Meanwhile, price index of maintenance & repair of dwellings rose by 9.97%, while that of electricity and gas fell by 4.61% due to lower prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas.

Household Goods & Furnishings 5.00 3.57 Rising wages of domestic helpers drove up the price index of household goods and services by 5.77%. Moreover, price indices of household tools & equipment (+4.12%) and household textiles (+3.72%) also showed marked increase.

Health 5.67 3.79 Notable increase was observed in the price indices of dental services (+8.03%), medical services (+7.30%) and paramedical services (+5.99%).

Transport 0.83 1.97 Price indices of automotive fuels & lubricants and passenger transport by air declined by 16.62% and 8.53% on account of receding prices of gasoline and airfare. On the contrary, rising rentals for parking spaces pushed up the price index of other services in respect of vehicles by 14.85%. Price index of maintenance and repair of vehicles also rose by 8.54%.

Communication -0.26 -0.14 Price index of Communication recorded the largest decrease in 2015, with the price indices of telecommunications equipment and services falling by 3.77% and 0.12%

respectively.

Recreation & Culture 1.23 1.28 Price indices of package tours & hotels (-5.00%) and audio-visual, photographic &

information processing equipment (-1.78%) registered decrease; meanwhile, price indices of cultural services (e.g.: photography) and recreational & sporting services (e.g.: interest classes) rose by 7.05% and 6.85%, leading to a year-on-year increase in the price index of Recreation and Culture.

Education 4.89 3.03 As the increase in tuition fees of the schools not joining the free education network was higher than that of the Government subsidies, price indices of pre-primary &

primary education (+17.44%) and secondary education (+13.97%) registered notable increase. Meanwhile, price index of tertiary education dropped by 1.02%.

Miscellaneous Goods & Services 2.39 4.90 Except for the decrease in the price indices of jewellery, clocks & watches (-6.80%) and other personal effects such as handbags and wallets (-2.63%), price indices of all other groups recorded increase. Rising charges for tuitorial classes, hairdressing &

grooming services, and children nursery & elderly care services drove up the price indices of other services, hairdressing & grooming services and social protection by 9.71%, 8.38% and 7.92% respectively.

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Historical Data for the Composite CPI %

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual inflation rate 2.81 5.81 6.11 5.50 6.05

For December 2015

Year-on-year change 3.92 6.81 5.83 5.72 5.59

Month-to-month change 0.59 0.74 0.85 0.79 0.29

Annualized change 2.81 5.81 6.11 5.50 6.05

Year-on-year change for the

fourth quarter 3.93 6.72 5.58 5.89 5.96

Explanatory Note

Methodology

The Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) releases the CPI series with the base period of October 2013 to September 2014, revised according to the results of the 2012/2013 Household Budget Survey. Due to the varying consumption patterns of households, DSEC compiles three separate CPI series after excluding the lowest and the highest 10% of households in spending. The Composite CPI reflects the impact of price changes on the general households. CPI-A relates to about 50% of the households, which have an average monthly expenditure of MOP10,000 to MOP29,999. The CPI-B relates to about 30% of the households, which have an average monthly expenditure of MOP30,000 to MOP54,999.

The CPI-basket contains 761 items of goods and services. In 2015, an average of 8,372 prices were collected every month from 1,184 outlets for the compilation of CPI.

Glossary

Base period : The period for which the value of the index is set equal to 100, and the index of the base period is used to compare with indices in other periods.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) : An economic indicator which measures changes in the price level of consumption goods and services acquired or used by households.

Contribution to the change of CPI : The percentage change in the price index of a section, class or group to the change in the CPI.

Inflation : An indicator derived from the CPI to reflect the changes in general consumer prices.

Weight : The relative importance of the goods and services as measured by their shares in the total consumption of households.

For additional information:

http://www.dsec.gov.mo/e/cpi.aspx