2015.2

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網路經濟學2015.2

網路經濟學 _2015.2

施俊吉

台灣大學經濟學研究所 October 2015

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大綱

1. 起跑策略

2. The High-Technology Bandwagon 3. A Bandwagon Tour

4. Bandwagons: How They Work 5. Bandwagon Demand

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網路經濟學2015.2 1.起跑策略

數位無線電視的起跑問題

I 數位無線電視從 ₂₀₀₂ 年 ₆ 月起開播。無線電視一旦數位化_, 既有的頻寬可以載送更多的頻道_, 可望成為有線電視的競爭者。因此_, 當年的政府與業界非常重視其商機_, 期盼數位無線電視能像行動電話一樣_, 活絡台灣的經濟

I 數位電視的商業化_, 需要三種關鍵性的投入

1. 必須有人製作數位化的電視節目

2. 必須有電視台播送數位節目

3. 收視戶必須購置數位電視機_,或在舊電視機上加裝數位機上

盒(set-top box)

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I 這三項條件缺一不可_,而且必須同時成立_, 數位無線電視才有進入商業運轉的可能

I 如果沒有人製作與播送數位節目_,就不會有人購買數位電視

機或機上盒

I 無人購置數位電視機,就不會有人製播數位電視節目

I 此皆導致數位無線電視不可能進入商業運轉的階段

I 台灣究竟應先普及化數位電視機或先促進數位電視的製播品質和數量_, 就形成了一個「雞生蛋或蛋生雞」的問題

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雞先或蛋先

參加這一場「雞先或蛋先賽局」的玩家共有五個_: 1. 內容製作業

2. 無線電視台 3. 電視機製造商

4. 收視戶

5. 政府

賽局參與者能否合作,關係數位電視的命運,而合作程度則影響各方之福祉

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政府的角色

政府在此一賽局中所應扮演的角色_, 就是做好一個合作誘因的創造者_,相關之產業與廣電政策皆應朝此方向設計。

建立合作機制要從政府內部做起_, 而經建會、經濟部與國家通訊傳播委員會_(NCC) 等部會間的合作與分工是第一步。

I 經濟部門應該對無線數位電視接收機的製造廠輔以工業發展策略_, 目的在達成大規模生產經濟_, 降低製造成本_, 創造數位電視機普及化的經濟條件

I NCC則應善用廣電政策, 從數位節目內容之製播下手, 輔導並鼓勵無線電視台外購或自製高品質、高畫質的數位電視節目

I 只有雞與蛋同時誕生_,才能解決數位電視起跑的問題

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彩色電視的啟示

上述策略係從彩色電視與 _CD的發展史中歸納而得

I 以彩色電視為例_,美國在韓戰之前_, 即曾採用_CBS 的技術標準開播彩色電視_, 但是終究無法克服彩色電視機與彩色電視節目必須同步普及的嚴苛條件_, 而以停播告終

I 韓戰之後_, 美國改採 _NBC 的標準捲土重來_, 由於當時的 NBC是電視製造大廠 _RCA的子公司_,所以_NBC 大量製播彩色節目以刺激彩色電視機的買氣_, 而_RCA 則努力促銷彩色電視機以增進_NBC 的收視率

I 一個垂直生產電視機與製播節目的企業整合體_, 終於成功地解決了彩色電視的起跑問題

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CD 的啟示

I CD的成功亦是如此。三十年前_, 當飛利浦推出 _CD 的技術標準時_, 也入主寶麗金唱片(Polyrgam Records) 公司。然後一家生產_CD 唱機_, 一家製作 _CD 唱片。一搭一唱_,將老式的唱機和四十五轉的刻盤送進了博物館

I 無線電視台必須明白垂直整合的重要性_, 而政府部門更應鼓勵數位節目製播者與數位電視機製造商之間的策略聯盟

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起跑策略

而今放眼全球的電視產業_,彩色電視與_CD 賴以成功的條件已不復存在_, 市場上缺乏類似當年_RCA 與_NBC 的垂直整合體_, 也缺乏飛利浦和寶麗金唱片的結合

由於政府沒有接手市場機制_, 以產業和廣電政策創造一個能夠產生垂直整合功效的環境_, 所以數位電視的發展才會如此緩慢

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2. The High-Technology Bandwagon

The High-Technology Bandwagon I

1. VCRs

I Beta: better picture quality.

I VHS: run longer.

2. PC operating systems: Apple v. Windows.

3. Picturephone: 1970s, $86.5 (now $175).

4. Telephone and the Internet: the largest and most successful bandwagon.

I In its early development, the Internet faced the same start-up problem as Picturephone. It could be used to communicate only with a small set of other users.

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The High-Technology Bandwagon II

I The Internet evolved from a specialized

telecommunications system funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and used primarily by the Department of Defense (DoD) and its contractors.

I Key policymakers in the federal government had the insight that a large, more general telecommunications system would be a valuable national resource. With relative modest expenditures by federal government standards, they initiated one of the greatest economic success stories of modern times.

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The High-Technology Bandwagon III

5. Bandwagons have dynamics that differ from those of conventional products and services. They are quite difficult to get started and often end up in a ditch before they can get under way. Once enough consumers have gotten on a bandwagon, however, it may be unstoppable.

6. Fax machines grew from a relatively few specialized applications to ubiquitous usage over a period of about ten years. Telephone service also grew on its own with no money from the public till, albeit much more slowly, when it was first introduced over 100 years ago.

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The High-Technology Bandwagon IV

7. Several major producers of compact discs(CDs) and CD players successfully agreed to a single technical standard.

8. Public policymakers sometimes fully determine a technical standard. For example, the FCC fully determined the technical standards for analog television transmission.

Alternatively, public policymakers may choose to set some aspects of the technical standard, while leaving other important aspects to be determined by the market. The FCC followed this latter course with respect to digital television.

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The High-Technology Bandwagon V

9. Economic analysis of bandwagon effects provides valuable insights into what is going on and what policymakers should do about it.

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網路經濟學2015.2 3. A Bandwagon Tour

A Bandwagon Tour I

1. The major Japanese electronics firms occupy several seats on the bandwagon: fax, VCR, CDs and television.

2. Ma Bell, Philips, IBM, Bill Gates, Uncle Sam: Those thinkers have had widely varying degree of success.

Sometimes they ate the bear, sometimes the bear ate them.

3. Two types of bandwagon effects

3.1 Network externalities: As the set of users expands, each user benefits from being able to communicate with more persons.

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網路經濟學2015.2 3. A Bandwagon Tour

A Bandwagon Tour II

3.2 Complementary bandwagon effects: These apply to products whose value derives from use of competitively supplied complementary products. For example, as more consumers purchase a hardware product, software vendors have greater incentives to produce software for the product. As the vendors respond those incentives, purchasers of the hardware benefit from greater availability of software.

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4. Bandwagons: How They Work

Bandwagons: How They Work I

1. Bandwagon effects were first analyzed half a century ago–

by Harvey Leibenstein in 1950. In leibenstein’s analysis, bandwagon effects are purely psychological– a consumer may feel better doing the same as others do.

2. Leibenstein contrasted bandwagon effects to “snob”

effects, whereby a consumer feels better doing as others do not.

3. Network externalities: telecommunications, e-mail, fax.

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Bandwagons: How They Work II

4. Complementary bandwagon effects: consumers of a product(e.g., hardware) may benefit from greater availability of competitively supplied complementary products (e.g., software) as the set of users of the product expands.

5. Demand-side scale economies: network externalities, that impart benefits to each consumer as the user set expands.

6. Supply-side scale economies: which impart benefits to suppliers(through reductions in unit cost) as output expands.

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Bandwagons: How They Work III

7. When anew consumer subscribes to a service with

network externalities, other users benefit. The benefits to these other users are external to the new user. For this reason, bandwagon benefits in networks are known as

“network externalities.”

8. 即便沒有 bandwagon effects, 產量增加也會使單位成本下降及產品價格下跌_, 此稱為internal supply-side scale economies。

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Bandwagons: How They Work IV

9. External and internal supply-side scale economies可以同時存在和享有。例如_,社會裝置更多的 fax, 消費者對 fax 的願付價格愈高₍但實際上卻無須真正付出_),而更多的 fax 則使 _fax的生產成本降低_, 價格愈低。

10. Complementary bandwagon effects involve complex interactions between supply and demand.

I Vertical integration: 既生產硬體又生產所有

complementary軟體。此時之 complementary bandwagon effects無異於 internal supply-side scale economies. 此項效果apply to output of a single firm.

I Non vertical integration: the bandwagon effects are external economies of scale

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Bandwagons: How They Work V

I Owners of CD players and VCRs benefit as other consumers buy products using the same technical standard, because a wider range of prerecorded CDs and videocassettes will become available.

I Owner of PCs v. applications software.

I Owner of digital television sets v.programs.

I Internet users v. information available on-line.

I 「雞生蛋」與「蛋生雞」的問題: base produt是雞, complementary product是蛋。發生在CD players與 CDs,也發生在彩色電視機和_HDTV上。

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網路經濟學2015.2 5. Bandwagon Demand

Bandwagon Demand I

1. Demand in bandwagon model depends on the number of other users as well as on who those users are.

2. In term of bandwagon theory, a consumer’s demand depends on the number of users with whom that consumer has some community of interest. For example,

I 電信_:一個人想通話的對象。

I 電腦作業系統_: 其他對電腦應用軟體之需求類似自己的人。

I For a machine that plays prerecorded programming: 其他對音樂與節目之嗜好與自己相同的人。

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Bandwagon Demand II

3. Because communities of interest are often important, the basic theoretical concept in the bandwagon model is not the number of users, but the user set– that is, the set of consumers who have for some reason (perhaps animal spirits) chosen to consume the bandwagon service.

4. A user set is an equilibrium user set if and only if

I no consumer who has chosen to consume the service would be better off not consuming it–given the other users of the service; and

I no consumer who has chosen not to consume the service would be better off consuming it–given the users of the service.

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Bandwagon Demand III

Under these conditions, the demand of each user and nonuser has no tendency to change.

5. If customers of multiple suppliers are, in reality, not interlinked, the demand facing each supplier must be analyzed separately.

6. Multiple equilibria: the null set (no users) is an equilibrium user set, the entire population is also an equilibrium user set.

I 如果能夠合作, bandwagon benefits that external to individuals may be internal to the group, this type of group activity can internalize the externality.

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Bandwagon Demand IV

I Coase used the term transactions costs to include all barriers to achieving cooperation to internalize

externalities.

I The initial user set

I The demand-based equilibrium user set

I The maximum equilibrium user set

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網路經濟學 2015.2

大綱