Applying Support Vector Regression to the Prediction of Typhoon-Rainfall 許文揚、吳泰熙
E-mail: 9808031@mail.dyu.edu.tw
ABSTRACT
It belongs to the typhoon to take place and bring the natural calamity of great injury frequently in Taiwan. The statistic frequency of happened typhoon of Central Weather Bureau is about thirteen times equally all the year, and concentrating between June and November. During this time is more frequency happened on August and September. On this time, the southwest-airstream is in vogue. The rainfall of typhoon and southwest-airstream are sizable and occur the great injury. In order to take precautions the great injury, this paper purpose the support vector regression of support vector machine to predict the rainfall. The input factors are route of typhoon, seat point of typhoon, maximum air pressure, maximum velocity near typhoon center and the radian of storm. The output factor is rainfall. The result is to confer the prediction ability of rainfall of according to typhoon’s route and subregion’s rainfall under typhoon’s route.
Keywords : support vector machine ; support vector regression ; typhoon Table of Contents
封面內頁 簽名頁 中文摘要 iv ABSTRACT v 誌 謝 vi 目 錄 vii 圖目錄 ix 表目錄 xi 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研 究目的 2 1.3 研究方法 3 1.4 研究架構與流程 4 第二章 文獻探討 7 2.1 颱風 7 2.1.1 颱風定義與生成 7 2.1.2 颱風相關研究 10 2.2 支援向量機 11 2.2.1 支援向量機於分類應用 11 2.2.2 支援向量迴歸於預測應用 12 第三章 研究方法 16 3.1 支援向量迴歸 介紹 16 3.2 參數定義與資料預處理 21 3.3 格子點演算法與交叉驗證 22 3.4 評量準則 25 第四章 結果分析 27 4.1 颱風資料 27 4.2 依照颱風路徑之全台降雨量結果 30 4.3 路徑下之分區降雨量結果 38 4.4 結果討論 58 第五章 結論與建議 60 5.1 結論 60 5.2 建議 61 參考文獻 62
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