NCEPR2 與 ERA40 變化不同，ERA40 在青康藏高原地表溫度大部分是增加的，
而 NCEPR2 則是在東南邊地表溫度有冷卻的現象，跟 CRUTEM3 測站資料比對
而在水氣收支方程與濕靜能收支方程，吾人亦使用 ERA40 與 NCEPR2 兩組 資料計算變化趨勢，NCEPR2 計算的結果例如水氣輻合的變化趨勢跟 GPCP 降雨 場變化的趨勢位置不一致，會有偏差。垂直運動增加的地方跟降雨場位置也不 同。所以在本文中將 NCEPR2 資料計算水氣收支與濕靜能收支方程的結果置於 附圖 9 至 19。
雖然各個資料在計算變化趨勢值不盡相同，但能可掌握相對的變化趨勢。未 來若使用更多的觀測資料及隨著觀測時間的增加，或許能得到更好的結果。近年 剛發表的日本 JMA 再分析資料將會是我們近期要分析的目標。
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圖表
圖 3-1：CMAPLAND 1979 至 2005 年夏季（7 至 9 月）降雨之變化趨勢，經緯範 圍從 20°S-60°N，40°E-180°E。藍色塗色代表降雨增加趨勢大於 5％；黃色 塗色代表降雨減少趨勢超過 5％；黑色實線為 5％，黑色虛線為-5％；通過 95％信賴水準之統計檢定以黑色圓點標記，單位：％∕十年。
圖 3-2：同圖 3-1，但為 CRU 陸地降雨 1979 至 2001 年之變化趨勢。
圖 3-3：同圖 3-1，但為 APHRODITE 1979 至 2001 年之變化趨勢，經緯範圍為 5
°N-60°N，65°E-155°E。
圖 3-4：同圖 3-1，但為 GPCP 全球降雨 1979 至 2005 之變化趨勢。
圖 3-5：CRU 7 至 9 月平均降雨在 1975 年至 1998 年平均減 1951 至 1974 年平均 之差異，塗色區代表差異值；黑色實線為差異值 0.2；黑色虛線為差異值-0.2，
單位：mm/day。
圖 3-6：CRU 7 至 9 月降雨在 1951 至 2000 年線性變化趨勢，藍色塗色代表降雨 增加趨勢大於 5％；黃色塗色代表降雨減少趨勢超過 5％；黑色實線為 5％，
黑色虛線為-5％；通過 95％信賴水準之 student t-test 統計檢定以黑色圓點標 記，單位：％∕50 年。
圖 3-7：GPCP 夏季降雨平均氣候值，藍色塗色代表氣候值大於 4mm/day，單位：
mm/day。
（a） （b）
圖 3-8：100-120°E 經度平均之降雨並作 5 年滑動平均之結果，藍色塗色代表降 雨超過 4mm/day；黑色粗實線為 4mm/day。（a）為 GPCP（b）為 APHRODITE。
（a） （b）
（c） （d）
圖 3-9：GPCP 區域夏季降雨趨勢，（a）菲律賓海（8°N-28°N，125°E-145°E）、
（b）中南半島及南海（10°N-20°N，100°E-120°E）、（c）孟加拉灣附近（10
°N-25°N，85°E-100°E）、（d）華中地區（28°N-33°N，100°E-120°E），黑 色實線為逐年降雨量；綠色實線代表變化趨勢通過 95％信賴水準之統計檢 定，單位：mm/day。
（a）
（b）
圖 4-1：ERA40 1979 至 2001 年夏季（a）850 毫巴平均流線場，藍色塗色為大於 GPCP 4mm/day 降雨分佈（b）200 至 500 毫巴平均溫度，單位：℃。
（a）
（b）
圖 4-2：（a）GPCP 115°E 至 135°E 區域平均降雨隨緯度與時間的變化圖，縱座 標為緯度，橫座標為時間（月），單位：mm/day；（b）ERA40 30°N 減 5°N 中高對流層（200 至 500 毫巴）溫度梯度，縱座標為時間（月），橫座標為 經度，單位：℃。
圖 4-3：ERA40 1979 至 2001 年夏季風場變化趨勢，單位：m/s；塗色區為 GPCP 降雨變化趨勢。
圖 4-4：ERA40 1979 至 2001 年夏季 200 至 500 毫巴之中高對流層溫度（Ta）變 化趨勢，暖色系為增加，冷色系為減少；黑色圓點為通過 95％信賴水準之 統計檢定。單位：℃。
圖 4-5：同圖 4-4，但為 NCEPR2 1979 至 2005 年之中高對流層溫度（Ta）變化 趨勢。
圖 4-6：同圖 4-4，但為 RSS 1979 至 2005 年 TMT 溫度變化趨勢。
圖 4-7：ERA40 1979 至 2001 年 30°N 減 5°N 之 200 至 500 毫巴中高對流層溫度
（Ta），等值線為 Ta 平均氣候值；塗色區為 Ta 變化之趨勢，暖色系為增加，
冷色系為減少；黑色圓點為通過 95％信賴水準之統計檢定。單位：℃。
圖 4-8：同圖 4-7，但為 NCEPR2，1979 至 2005 年中高對流層溫度。
圖 4-9：同圖 4-7，但為 RSS 1979 至 2005 年 TMT 溫度。
圖 4-10：ERA40 夏季地表溫度變化趨勢，經緯範圍從 22°N-45°N，63°E-108°E。
暖色系為增加，冷色系為減少；黑色圓點為通過 95％信賴水準之統計檢定；
黑色粗實線為 700 毫巴等壓線。
圖 4-11：同圖 4-10，但為 NCEPR2 地表溫度變化趨勢。
圖 4-12：同圖 4-10，但為 CRUTEM3 地表溫度變化趨勢。
圖 4-13：NCEPR2 夏季土壤濕度變化趨勢。冷色系為增加，暖色系為減少；黑色 圓點為通過 95％信賴水準之統計檢定；黑色粗實線為 700 毫巴等壓線。
（a）
（b）
圖 4-14：NSIDC 雪覆蓋（snow cover）變化趨勢，（a）為夏季（b）為冬春季（12 至 3 月），冷色系為增加，暖色系為減少；黑色圓點為通過 95％信賴水準之 統計檢定。
圖 4-15：同 4-14，但為 1 至 12 月雪覆蓋（snow cover）變化趨勢。
圖 4-16：同圖 4-13，但為 1 至 12 月土壤濕度變化趨勢。
圖 4-17：同圖 4-10，但為 NCEPR2 1 至 12 月地表溫度變化趨勢。
（a）
（b）
（c）
.
圖 5-1：ERA40 1979 至 2001 年夏季氣候值（a）為垂直積分後水氣輻合（b）為 垂直積分後之水氣平流（c）為垂直積分後之水氣垂直傳輸，藍色代表濕平 流；黃色代表乾平流。
圖 5-2：ERA40 垂直積分之水氣輻合變化趨勢，冷色系代表增加；暖色系代表減 少；黑色圓點為通過 95％信賴水準之統計檢定；粉紅色粗實線為降雨增加 5
％之區域，單位：W/ m2。
（a）
（b）
圖 5-3：同圖 5-1，但（a）為水氣平流變化；（b）為水氣垂直傳送變化。
（a）
（b）
圖 5-4：同圖 5-1，但（a）為環流改變造成之水氣平流變化；（b）為水氣改變造 成之水氣平流變化。
（a）
（b）
圖 5-5：同圖 5-1，但（a）為垂直運動改變造成之水氣傳直傳送變化；（b）為水 氣改變造成之水氣垂直傳送變化。
（a）
（b）
（c）
圖 5-6：同圖 5-1，但（a）為垂直運動改變造成之濕靜能輻合變化；（b）為濕靜 能輻合變化；（c）為濕靜能改變造成之濕靜能輻合變化。
（a）
（b）
（c）
圖 5-7：同圖 5-1，但（a）為水氣及溫度水平平流變化；（b）為水氣及溫度改變 造成之水氣及溫度水平平流變化；（c）為環流改變造成之水氣及溫度水平平 流變化。
圖 5- 8：同圖 5-1，但為 ERA40 大氣柱淨熱通量之變化。