藉由本年度計畫的執行，我們提出新一代台灣地震危害圖。在此版本之地震 危害分析中，考量新版震構造震源資料庫以及更新地震目錄、考量多重構造破裂 以及時變性地震活動率評估模型、新增平滑模型評估背景淺源震源活動度、考量 場址效應，以及引用新一代強地動衰減式。藉由資料庫之更新以及模型的演進，
將有助於增進評估之精確性。此版本地震危害圖將於近日發表，期盼此圖將成為 政府相關部門擬定相關政策之重要參考、協助產業推出對應之防災商品，並讓民 眾藉由認識地震災害而進一步達到防災、減災之效。
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轉為譜速度(Osaki,1994)，並將其濾波至周期 0.1 秒~1 秒，並選取期幾何平均值 作為譜速度的地動值，並根據過去 TEM 評估建築物易損性曲線相同評估方法建 立譜速度易損性曲線(Hsu et al., 2018)(圖 5.1)。其研究結果在木造(wood)建築物以 及鋼骨鋼筋混凝土(Steel reinforce Concrete)易損性曲線上，呈現較相似的趨勢，顯示出在建築物的耐震能力上有較為接近的結果。但由於鋼骨鋼筋混凝土的損害
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圖 5. 1、本研究譜速度易損性曲線。
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六、計畫成果自評
台灣地震模型（Taiwan Earthquake Model, TEM）自2012年成立以來，完成 以下幾項重要工作：（1）於2015年底，TEM公告了台灣第一版本之地震危害度 分布圖，簡稱TEM PSHA2015 (Wang et al., 2016a)。2016年2月發生之美濃地震及 2018年2月發生之花蓮地震均驗證了台灣地震危害度分布圖之重要性。2016年6 月TEM出刊TAO專刊 ”Taiwan Earthquake Model: Seismic Hazard Assessment and Earthquake Scenario” (Rau and Ma, 2016)。2017年10月出刊TAO專刊” The 2016
Meinong, Taiwan, earthquake” (Rau and Liang, 2017)。2019年6月出刊TAO專刊”
The 2018 Hualien, Taiwan, Earthquake” (Rau and Tseng, 2019)。（2）2012年起加
入世界地震模型基金會（Global Earthquake Model Foundation, GEM）並參與其多 項活動，與世界各會員國交換地震災防研究的經驗及成果。（3）2019年利用GEM 回饋給TEM 50%年費(5萬歐元)，執行台灣地震模型更新、緬甸活動斷層參數研 究及支助台灣學者參與2019年11月於日本舉辦之台日紐三方之地震災害評估研 討會。自2019年起，TEM將與GEM持續下一階段三年之國際合作。2019年台灣 地震模型主要成果包含(1)更新臺灣地區陸域孕震構造參數表，(2) 2019年台灣地 震危害度評估，及(3)臺灣地震風險評估。這些成果將提供相關單位研究及決策 的依據。20
七、參考文獻
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Chan, C.H., Ma, K.F., Lee, Y.T., and Wang, Y.J., 2019, Rethinking seismic source model of probabilistic hazard assessment in Taiwan after the 2018 Hualien, Taiwan, earthquake sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 90 (1).
Chan, Chung-Han, Kuo-Fong Ma, J. Bruce H. Shyu, Ya-Ting Lee, Yu-Ju Wang, Yin-Tung Yen, and Ruey-Juin Rau, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan: TEM PSHA2019, submitted.
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108年度專題研究計畫成果彙整表
Chan, Chung-Han, Kuo-Fong Ma, J.
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研討會論文 9
The 2019 Japan-New Zealand-Taiwan Seismic Hazard Workshop, Nov., 2019, Kuo-Fong Ma, Historical
earthquakes and dynamic modeling to PSHA
Chung-Han Chan, A probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan: An update of the Taiwan Earthquake Model in 2019
Sze-Chieh Liu, Paleo-earthquake records of the Hengchun offshore structure, southern Taiwan
Yiwun Liao, Analysis of aftershocks sequence of M >= 6.0 earthquakes in Taiwan with ETAS model
Ruey-Juin Rau, Liquefaction-induced ground deformation caused by the shaking of the 2016 Meinong earthquake
Jia-Cian Gao, Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis : An Example of the Hualien area
Ray Chuang, Working towards
integrating geodetic data into PSHA Hung-Yu Wu, Rate and State
Seismicity Simulations for Seismic Hazard Analysis in Taiwan
Kuo-En Ching, Fault slip deficit rate derived from geodetic data for seismic hazard assessment
專書 0 本