第五章 結論與建議
5.2 建議
1. 沿海低地平原之地表水流現象易受地形地貌之影響，應收集更可靠之交通 系統、灌排水路及塭堤與低地高程資料，以提升模擬演算之可靠性。
2. 本文建置之地文性淹水預報模式，在即時演算模擬時需饋入即時之雨量、
潮位與水庫放流預報資料，建議宜整合上述水文預報資訊，加強即時水情 資訊傳送，以利模式校驗提升模擬演算之可靠性。
3. 建議在嚴重淹水區及鄰近排水路設置水位站，並於適當地點設置洪痕水 尺，以收集量化之淹水深度及範圍等資訊，提升模擬演算之可靠性。
4. 建議以消防局或里長接獲民眾報案之淹水描述情形，驗證淹水範圍。
5. 在颱風勘災調查方面，建議運用淹水期間航拍照片或衛星照片比對，期提 升模式準確性。
69
6. 位於沿海低地平原之排水系統，會因流域邊界高程不足而與相鄰流域間發 生越域水流，也會因颱風暴潮之水位抬升及漲潮流量而遲滯感潮之洪水渲 洩。因此颱洪期間進行淹水預報時，應結合低地平原之相鄰排水系統進行 淹水預報演算。此一平原地區集水區邊界不明顯之現象，更由於近年來因 縣市合併，因應描述一更大範圍淹水現象之需求也隨之增加，故需要整合 若干個集水區以多部個人電腦同步運算，建議可運用繪圖處理器(Graphic Procesing Unit, GPU)以平行技術提升模式在整合模擬多個集水區之演算速 度。
70
71
參考文獻
Abbott, M.B., Bathurst, J.C., Cunge, J.A., O'Connell, P.E., Rasmussen, J., 1986. An introduction to the European Hydrological System—Systeme Hydrologique Europeen,“SHE”, 1: History and philosophy of a physically-based, distributed modelling system. Journal of hydrology, 87(1): pp. 45-59.
Asselman, N.E.M., van Wijngaarden, M., 2002. Development and application of a 1D floodplain sedimentation model for the River Rhine in The Netherlands.
Journal of Hydrology, 268(1–4): pp. 127-142.
Bélair, S. et al., 2009. Medium-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Canada’s New 33-km Deterministic Global Operational System. Weather Forecast., 24(3): pp. 690-708.
Baan, P.J.A., Klijn, F., 2004. Flood risk perception and implications for flood risk management in the Netherlands. International Journal of River Basin Management, 2(2): pp. 113-122.
Benavente, J., Del Río, L., Gracia, F., Martínez-del-Pozo, J., 2006. Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain). Continental Shelf Research, 26(9): pp. 1061-1076.
Bergström, S., Singh, V., 1995. The HBV model. Computer models of watershed hydrology.: pp. 443-476.
Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology/Un modèle à base physique de zone d'appel variable de l'hydrologie du bassin versant. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 24(1): pp. 43-69.
72
Byun, D.-S., Cho, C.-W., 2009. Exploring conventional tidal prediction schemes for improved coastal numerical forecast modeling. Ocean Modelling, 28(4): pp.
193-202.
Calvo, B., Savi, F., 2009. Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome.
Natural Hazards, 50(3): pp. 461-477.
Chang, L.-C., Shen, H.-Y., Wang, Y.-F., Huang, J.-Y., Lin, Y.-T., 2010. Clustering-based hybrid inundation model for forecasting flood inundation depths. Journal of Hydrology, 385(1-4): pp. 257-268.
Changnon, S.A., 1998. The Historical Struggle with Floods on the Mississippi River Basin. Water International, 23(4): pp. 263-271.
Chen, A.S. et al., 2006. Establishing the database of inundation potential in Taiwan.
Natural Hazards, 37(1): pp. 107-132.
Chen, C.N., Tsai, C.H., Tsai, C.T., 2007. Reduction of discharge hydrograph and flood stage resulted from upstream detention ponds. Hydrological Processes, 21(25): pp. 3492-3506.
Cheng, J.D., Huang, Y.C., Wu, H.L., Yeh, J.L., Chang, C.H., 2005.
Hydrometeorological and landuse attributes of debris flows and debris floods during typhoon Toraji, July 29-30, 2001 in central Taiwan. Journal of Hydrology, 306(1-4): pp. 161-173.
Cheung, K. et al., 2003. Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management. Ocean Engineering, 30(11): pp. 1353-1386.
Chien, F.-C., Jou, B.J.-D., 2004. MM5 Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts in the Taiwan Area for Three Early Summer Convective (Mei-Yu) Seasons.
Weather Forecast., 19(4): pp. 735-750.
Chowdhury, M., 2000. An assessment of flood forecasting in Bangladesh: The experience of the 1998 flood. Natural Hazards, 22(2): pp. 139-163.
73
Crawford, N.H., Linsley, R.K., 1966. DIGITAL SIMULATION IN HYDROLOGY'STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL 4.
Cunge, J.A., 1975. Two-dimension modeling of flooding plains K. Mahmood and V Yevjevich fedited), Unsteady flow in open channels. Water Resou} ces Publi-cations.
De Roo, A. et al., 2003. Development of a European flood forecasting system.
International Journal of River Basin Management, 1: pp. 49-60.
Dolcine, L., Andrieu, H., Sempere-Torres, D., Creutin, D., 2001. Flash flood forecasting with coupled precipitation model in mountainous Mediterranean basin. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 6: pp. 1.
Doong, D.-J. et al., 2012. Development of an operational coastal flooding early warning system. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12(2): pp. 379-390.
Du, J., Mullen, S.L., Sanders, F., 1997. Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation. Monthly Weather Review, 125(10): pp. 2427-2459.
Foufoula-Georgiou, E., Krajewski, W., 1995. Recent advances in rainfall modeling, estimation, and forecasting. REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS-RICHMOND VIRGINIA THEN WASHINGTON-, 33: pp. 1125-1138.
Gambolati, G., Teatini, P., Gonella, M., 2002. GIS simulations of the inundation risk in the coastal lowlands of the Northern Adriatic Sea. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 35(9-10): pp. 963-972.
Georgakakos, K., 1995. Real-Time Prediction For Flood Warning And Management.
Georgakakos, K.P., 1987. Real-time flash flood prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92(D8): pp. 9615-9629.
Georgakakos, K.P., Bras, R.L., 1982. Real-time, statistically linearized, adaptive flood routing. Water Resour. Res., 18(3): pp. 513-524.
74
Golding, B.W., 2000. Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. Journal of Hydrology, 239(1-4): pp. 286-305.
Hübl, J., Steinwendtner, H., 2001. Two-dimensional simulation of two viscous debris flows in Austria. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part C: Solar, Terrestrial & Planetary Science, 26(9): pp. 639-644.
Habert, J. et al., 2012. Estimation of lateral inflows using data assimilation in the context of real-time flood forecasting for the Marne catchment in France.
Estimation des apports latéraux via assimilation de données pour le bassin versant de la Marne dans un contexte opérationnel de prévision des crues.
Havis, R.N., Alonso, C.V., King, J.G., 1996. Modeling sediment in gravel-bedded streams using HEC-6. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 122(10): pp. 559-564.
Havnø, K., Madsen, M., Dørge, J., Singh, V., 1995. MIKE 11-a generalized river modelling package. Computer models of watershed hydrology.: pp. 733-782.
Hoeksema, R.J., 2006. Designed for dry feet: flood protection and land reclamation in the Netherlands ASCE Publications, 155 pp.
Hooijer, A., Klijn, F., Pedroli, G.B.M., Van Os, A.G., 2004. Towards sustainable flood risk management in the Rhine and Meuse river basins: synopsis of the findings of IRMA SPONGE. River Research and Applications, 20(3): pp. 343-357.
Horritt, M.S., Bates, P.D., 2002. Evaluation of 1D and 2D numerical models for predicting river flood inundation. Journal of Hydrology, 268(1–4): pp. 87-99.
Hsu, M.-H., Fu, J.-C., Liu, W.-C., 2003. Flood routing with real-time stage correction method for flash flood forecasting in the Tanshui River, Taiwan.
Journal of Hydrology, 283(1-4): pp. 267-280.
Hsu, M.H., Fu, J.C., Liu, W.C., 2006. Dynamic routing model with real-time roughness updating for flood forecasting. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING, 132: pp. 605-619.
75
Iwasa, Y., Inoue, K., 1982. Mathematical Simulations Of Channel And Overland Flood Flows In View Of Flood Disaster Engineering. Natural disaster science, 4(1): pp. 1-30.
Jasper, K., Gurtz, J., Lang, H., 2002. Advanced flood forecasting in Alpine watersheds by coupling meteorological observations and forecasts with a distributed hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 267(1-2): pp. 40-52.
Jelesnianski, C., Chen, J., Shaffer, W., Gilad, A., 1984. SLOSH-a Hurricane Storm Surge Forecast Model, OCEANS 1984. IEEE, pp. 314-317.
Karimi, S., Kisi, O., Shiri, J., Makarynskyy, O., 2013. Neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia.
Computers & Geosciences, 52(0): pp. 50-59.
Kitanidis, P.K., Bras, R.L., 1980. Real-time forecasting with a conceptual hydrologic model: 1. Analysis of uncertainty. Water Resour. Res., 16(6): pp.
1025-1033.
Kraijenhoff, D., Moll, J., 1986. River flow modelling and forecasting. D. Reidel.
Krzysztofowicz, R., Kelly, K.S., Long, D., 1994. RELIABILITY OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management-Asce, 120(6): pp. 906-926.
Lee, T.L., 2006. Neural network prediction of a storm surge. Ocean Engineering, 33(3–4): pp. 483-494.
Li, M.-H., Hsu, M.-H., Hsieh, L.-S., Teng, W.-H., 2002. Inundation Potentials Analysis For Tsao-Ling Landslide Lake Formed By Chi-Chi Earthquake In Taiwan. Natural Hazards, 25(3): pp. 289-303.
Lin, Y.J., Chang, Y.H., Tan, Y.C., Lee, H.Y., Chiu, Y.J., 2011. National policy of watershed management and flood mitigation after the 921 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Natural Hazards: pp. 1-23.
76
Londhe, S.N., 2011. Forecasting Water Levels Using Artificial Neural Networks.
The International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems, 2(2): pp. 119-135.
Madsen, H., Jakobsen, F., 2004. Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal. Coastal Engineering, 51(4): pp. 277-296.
Madsen, H., Skotner, C., 2005. Adaptive state updating in real-time river flow forecasting--a combined filtering and error forecasting procedure. Journal of Hydrology, 308(1-4): pp. 302-312.
O'brien, J., Julien, P., Fullerton, W., 1993a. Two-Dimensional Water Flood And Mudflow Simulation. Journal of hydraulic engineering, 119(2): pp. 244-261.
O'Brien, J., Julien, P., Fullerton, W., 1993b. Two Dimensional Water Flood and Mudflow Simulation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 119(2): pp. 244-261.
O’Brien, J., Julien, P., 2000. Flo-2D. Users manual. Flo-engineering, Version.
Olsson, J., Lindström, G., 2008. Evaluation and calibration of operational hydrological ensemble forecasts in Sweden. Journal of Hydrology, 350(1-2):
pp. 14-24.
Peng, M., Xie, L., Pietrafesa, L.J., 2004. A numerical study of storm surge and inundation in the Croatan–Albemarle–Pamlico Estuary System. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 59(1): pp. 121-137.
Ramos, M.-H., Bartholmes, J., Thielen-del Pozo, J., 2007. Development of decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European flood alert system. Atmospheric Science Letters, 8(4): pp. 113-119.
Richard, E., Buzzi, A., Zängl, G., 2007. Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Alps: The advances achieved by the Mesoscale Alpine Programme. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133(625): pp. 831-846.
Sannasiraj, S.A., Zhang, H., Babovic, V., Chan, E.S., 2004. Enhancing tidal prediction accuracy in a deterministic model using chaos theory. Advances in Water Resources, 27(7): pp. 761-772.
77
Takahashi, K., Nakagawa, H., Nishizaki, T., 1986. Two Dimensional Numerical Simulation Method To Estimate The Risk Of A Flood Hazard Caused By A River Bank Breach. DPRI, Kyoto Univ., 29B-2: pp. 431-450.
Teng, W.-H., Hsu, M.-H., Wu, C.-H., Chen, A., 2006. Impact of Flood Disasters on Taiwan in the Last Quarter Century. Natural Hazards, 37(1): pp. 191-207.
Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P., Penning-Rowsell, E.C., 2007. Future flooding and coastal erosion risks. Thomas Telford Services Limited.
Tsai, C., Chen, C., Tsai, C., 2007. Influence Of Reservoir Flood Releasing On Inundated Potential For Downstream Area.
Van Der Knijff, J., Younis, J., De Roo, A., 2010. LISFLOOD: a GIS based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation.
International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 24(2): pp. 189-212.
Vieux, B.E., Bedient, P.B., 2004. Assessing urban hydrologic prediction accuracy through event reconstruction. Journal of Hydrology, 299(3-4): pp. 217-236.
Wang, C.-h., 2009. Apply Neural Network Techniques for Storm Surge Prediction.
Wang, Y., Li, M., Yu, P., 2007. Application of QPESUMS System with Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model.
Werner, M., Reggiani, P., De Roo, A., Bates, P., Sprokkereef, E., 2005a. Flood forecasting and warning at the river basin and at the European scale. Natural Hazards, 36(1-2): pp. 25-42.
Werner, M. et al., 2005b. Developing flood forecasting systems: examples from the UK, Europe and Pakistan.
Wong, J.-H., Chen, C.-N., Lai, C.-Y., Tsai, C.-H., Tsai, C.-T., 2004. Application Of Gis Linked The Physiographic Inundation Model To Estimate The Influence Of Land Use On Flooding Potential, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference. World Scientific, pp. 24.
78
Yates, D.N., Warner, T.T., Leavesley, G.H., 2000. Prediction of a Flash Flood in Complex Terrain. Part II: A Comparison of Flood Discharge Simulations Using Rainfall Input from Radar, a Dynamic Model, and an Automated Algorithmic System. Journal of applied meteorology, 39(6): pp. 815-825.
Yu, P.-S., Jeng, Y.-C., 1997. A study on grid based distributed rainfall runoff models. Water resources management, 11(2): pp. 83-99.
Zepeda-Arce, J., Foufoula-Georgiou, E., Droegemeier, K.K., 2000. Space-time rainfall organization and its role in validating quantitative precipitation forecasts. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105(D8): pp. 10,129-10,146.
尤心瑜、廖宇慶，2011，使用都卜勒氣象雷達資料改善模式定量降雨預報之 可行性研究－以模擬資料測試之實驗結果，大氣科學，39(1)：第1-24 頁。
行政院，2011，災害防救白皮書。
余思亮，2012，河川洪水系集預報模式，生物環境系統工程學研究所碩士論 文，臺灣大學。
吳書幃，2007，即時降雨資料應用於淹水預報之研究，生物環境系統工程學 研究所碩士論文，臺灣大學。
李天浩、鄭安孺、李文生、謝沃田、郭雅熅、黃明昌、陳瑞清、王藝峰、李 耀輝，2010，水文模式與分散式洪水預報系統整合應用計畫 (3/3)，經濟 部水利署。
李天浩、鄭安孺、李文生、謝沃田、謝明昌、施秋蓉、葉明生、李政賢，
2011，機率式洪水預報系統之研發，經濟部水利署。
許泰文、游保杉、黃清哲，2011，強化台灣西南地區因應氣候變遷海岸災害 調適能力研究計畫(2/2)，經濟部水利署。
79
許銘熙，1989，洪氾區二維變量流模擬：ADE 法與 SES 法之比較，生物環境 系統工程學系 期刊論文。
陳明仁，1999，河川洪水即時預報不確定性之研究，NSC 88-2415-H-002-041，台灣大學水工試驗所，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報 告。
陳明仁、葉克家、楊昇學，2007，臺灣之中央管河川警戒水位訂定與相關問 題，第十一屆海翔兩岸水利科技交流研討會，長春。
陳昶憲、楊朝仲、王益文，1996，類神經網路於烏溪流域洪流預報之應用，
中華水土保持學報，27(4) ：第267-274頁。
陳憲宗、游保杉，2007，洪水位之即時機率預報-結合支撐向量機與模糊推 理，農業工程學報，53(4) ：第1-20頁。
傅金城、張駿暉、葉森海、黃成甲、謝龍生、游保杉、葉克家、許銘熙，
2010，淹水災害預警技術，國研科技(25) ：第15-27頁。
黃仁國、李光敦，2009，考慮時變性部分集水面積概念之降雨逕流模式，中 國土木水利工程學刊，21(1)：第13-23頁。
黃尹龍，2001，類神經網路架構颱洪流量預測模式，土木及水利工程研究所 碩士論文，臺灣大學。
黃鵬豪，2008，應用 QPESUMS 高解析降雨資料改良洪水預報模式之研究，
生物環境系統工程學研究所碩士論文，臺灣大學。
葉克家、陳明仁，2001，台北防洪淡水河警戒水位檢討。
葉克家、陳明仁，2008，中央管河川警戒水位檢討與訂定，經濟部水利署。
楊銘賢、李光敦，1998，逕流運行時間分佈對運動波-地貌瞬時單位歷線影響 之初步研究，臺灣水利，4(4)：第76-89頁。
80
雷銘中，2002，台灣地區模式降雨預報之校驗評估，大氣物理研究所碩士論 文，中央大學。
潘宗毅，2004，動態系統與類神經網路之研究及其應用於降雨–逕流預報模式 之整合，生物環境系統工程學研究所學位論文，臺灣大學。
蔡孝忠、李天浩，2008，利用雙傅利葉函數迴歸法建立颱風氣候降雨定量估 計模式－以淡水河流域為例，中國土木水利工程學刊，20(2) ：第183-195 頁。
蔡孟原，2009，雷達定量降水估計應用在河川洪水預報之研究，生物環境系 統工程學研究所碩士論文，臺灣大學。
蔡長泰，1981，沖積河川變量流之模擬，土木工程研究所博士論文，成功大 學。
蔡長泰、顏沛華、盧炳堃，1983，濁水溪洪水預報系統之研究 (一)，行政院 國家科學委員會防災研究報告72-76號。
賴進松，1986，堤防潰決後二維性洪流演算模式，土木工程研究所碩士論 文，臺灣大學。
鍾世豐，2007，類神經網路在洪水演算及預報之應用，生物環境系統工程學 研究所碩士論文，臺灣大學。
顏清連，1998，淡水河整體洪水預報系統模式之研發，台灣省水利處，國立 臺灣大學。
顏清連、何興亞，2001，洪災預警及防治，中國土木水利工程學會九十年年 會論文集：第57-74頁。
羅竣文，2010，應用類神經網路於颱風降雨量即時預報之研究，土木工程學 研究所碩士論文，臺灣大學。
81
附錄一 歷史颱風事件淹排水模擬演算成果
附 1.1 莫拉克颱風淹水現象模擬
莫拉克颱風淹水現象模擬自 2009 年 8 月 5 日 00：00 至 8 月 13 日 4：
00，共 197 小時。附表 1-1 為莫拉克颱風期間研究區域內雨量站個別之降雨過
00，共 197 小時。附表 1-1 為莫拉克颱風期間研究區域內雨量站個別之降雨過