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第四章、 結論及建議
本研究以隨機模型之方式，試圖找出在監理寬容存在下，人身保險安定基金 之公平保費，與過去研究不同，本文在模型中加入匯率之不確定性與避險策略，
且同時增加與股東價值之比較，本研究發現：
1. 避險政策會影響安定基金之風險保費，提高避險比例可降低破產風險。
2. 匯率波動幅度增加，保費會隨之提升(推論 1)。
3. 在公司不進行避險時，匯率風險對風險保費之影響大於利率風險，隨著
避險比例上升，利率風險對保費之影響會上升，反之，匯率風險則是下 降 (推論 1)。
4. 在完全避險下，最適之國外投資比例為 50%，此數值隨避險比例而下降，
因此監理單位若考量以限制投資之方式監管保險公司，可能需同時考慮 該公司之避險政策(推論 2)。
5. 在各討論情況下，股東價值皆與安定基金風險保費有同向關係，而風險
保費越低象徵是破產風險的下降，同時也代表保戶的保障程度提升，此 顯示在上述各政策情境下，股東價值最大化與保戶風險最小化互相衝突 (推論 3)。
本研究根據上述結果可給予以下建議：
1. 監理機關訂定壽險業安定基金費率時，需依各公司之財務結構、避險政
策及投資情況而定，同時應需定期依市場指標而更新保費計算方式。
2. 人身保險公司於風險管理中不能僅注重利率風險，匯率風險也有其影響
性，甚至可能超過利率風險。
3. 監理機關的規定訂立與公司的政策擬定皆應考慮股東價值與保戶權益
衝突之情況，而非從單一方面思考。
然而受研究方法限制，本文採用簡化模型，可能使數值與現實有所差異，同
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時僅點出股東與保戶之衝突，並未提出最適之策略，該部分可待後續研究擴展，
此為本研究不足之處。
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= 𝐸𝑄[𝑀(𝑇)−1𝐸𝑄[𝛾𝐿(𝑇)Φ(𝑏1) − 𝐴(𝑇)Φ(𝑏1− 𝜎𝐴√𝜖)]𝐼{𝜏≥𝑇,𝛼>𝐴(𝑇) 𝐿(𝑇)≥𝛽}
]
= 𝛾𝐿(0) (∫ ∫ Φ(𝑏𝑥 1)
𝐵 𝐵1
𝐵
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑚)𝑑𝑚(𝑇)𝑑𝑋(𝑇) − ∫ ∫ Φ(𝑏𝑥 1)
𝐵 𝐵2
𝐵
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑚)𝑑𝑚(𝑇)𝑑𝑋(𝑇))
−𝐴(0) (∫ ∫ 𝑒𝑥 𝑥Φ(𝑏2)
𝐵 𝐵1
𝐵
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑚)𝑑𝑚(𝑇)𝑑𝑋(𝑇) − ∫ ∫ 𝑒𝑥 𝑥Φ(𝑏1)
𝐵 𝐵2
𝐵
𝑓(𝑥, 𝑚)𝑑𝑚(𝑇)𝑑𝑋(𝑇)) 其中 𝑏1 =𝐵3−𝑋(𝑇)−𝑎𝜀𝜎
𝐴√𝜀 ； 𝑓(𝑥, 𝑚) 為 𝑚(𝑇) ∩ 𝑋(𝑇) 之機率密度函數，可由引理 1-1 偏微 分而得。解開積分即可得證。
將引理 2-1、2-2 及 2-3 加總即為安定基金賣權之解。