目前大台北地區仰賴北勢溪與南勢溪之水源（97.5%）作為日常用水，
水資源利用為優先取用南勢溪川流水，當其水量不足時則由翡翠水庫放水補 充，故翡翠水庫是大臺北地區無可替代的水資源命脈及民生穩定、工商經濟 繁榮社經發展之關鍵基礎設施。據翡翠水庫操作管理手冊統計自民國94 年 至107 年之資料顯示，由翡翠水庫供應的自來水原水量，平均每年 2 億 1,804 萬立公尺，占臺北自來水事業處取水量24%。故，翡翠水庫上游溶解態有機 碳輸入對於水庫內碳循環產生之影響不可忽視。
本研究分析，未來溶解態有機碳年平均輸出量並不會隨時間顯著增加，且大 體上呈現減少之趨勢，然而，各模式顯示在氣候變遷下五月至八月的溶解態 有機碳有些微增加的趨勢，因翡翠水庫供水季節主要為一月至七、八月間（如 下圖5-1），是否進而影響供水期間進入民生用水系統有待進一步研究。
圖5-1 翡翠水庫蓄存水量變化(資料來源：台北市翡翠水庫管理局)
為過濾庫體內之水質，淨水程序中將添加大量的氯。而近期的研究指
出，颱風不只會造成原水濁度飆升，還會提高水中溶解性有機碳與致癌物 三鹵甲烷的總量，三鹵甲烷是加氯消毒後，與有機碳反應所產生的副產物，
具有致癌的風險（林其鋒，2014），故，氣候變遷將增加台北地區民眾民 生用水安全之疑慮，有關單位須重視水體內溶解態有機碳輸出之總量管制，
制定相關法規管制集水區上游人為及生物源有機碳輸入，透過大氣環流模 式模擬與Loadest 模式推估，即可成為未來政策制定之相關參考依據，後 續研究則須針對流量模擬檢定等更細節部分做更詳細之評估，以利維護集 水區水源內之碳循環與生態。
氣候變遷下，如何因應環境變化穩定供水與供水安全性攸關民生與工 業需求，水庫內碳循環與用水安全息息相關，建議未來配合季節針對上游 集水區溪流進行定期溶解態有機碳監測，提早針對極端天氣下，水庫內有 機物質濃度進行預防與策略制定。
對於後續深入研究，本研究提供未來研究者以下建議：
1. 為了建置完整溶解態有機碳資料庫，可增設相關IoT 物聯網監測設 施，收集集水區內更多測站與更長時間段之資料。
2. 為能更針對該集水區之狀況進行調控，建議未來研究可以更小之 HRU 為尺度探討溶解態有機碳之輸出，回應第一點，此一必須搭 配更長時間之監測資料與。
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