常數項 內部人持股率 D 1* 內部人持股 預測 EPS P/E D3*(P/E) -4.320(0.144) 0.039(0.292* ) -0.024(0.424) 0.514(0.069* ) -0.052(0.232) 0.040(0.100* )
D 4*(P/E) 產業別 承銷價 承銷規模 成長潛力 公司規模 -0.025(0.688) 0.588(0.084* ) -0.014(0.246) 0.310(0.122) 0.014(0.946)
0.047(0.056* )
（）內代表顯著水準
。
*：10%顯著水準， **：5%顯著水準， ***：1%顯著水準。
6. 結論與建議
本研究目的在同時考慮內部人持股與財務預測訊息下，以二因 子模式探討新上市之折價與上市後初期異常報酬之相關性。研究結果 顯示內部人持股比例愈高，新上市折價愈低，而且內部人持股率與 新上市後之初期報酬可能呈現非線性負相關，與過去之研究結果一 致。
其次，新上市前公佈預測公司之初期報酬顯著低於新上市後公 佈預測公司之初期報酬，與國外Jog & McConomy(2003)針對加拿大 新上市自願性預測之研究結果一致。此外，強制財務預測之每股盈餘 訊息預期可作為公司價值訊息之傳遞因子，盈餘預測訊息不論以每 股預測盈餘或本益比衡量，皆顯示與上市之初期報酬呈現相關性。新 上市股票具有低本益比的價值股或高本益比的成長股的特性下，會 有較高的蜜月期報酬，投資人在評估新上市公司股票時，公司宣告 的盈餘預測值納入評價的參考資訊，支持評價攸關假說。
就新上市前宣告財務預測的新上市公司，內部人持股率與初期
報酬無顯著相關，盈餘預測訊息與內部人持股比率作為訊息傳遞因 子之比較，盈餘預測訊息取代內部人持股率為主要訊息傳遞因子，
二者不具有互補效果，研究結果與Firth(1998)一致，Firth 認為預測 EPS 是 IPO 價值的主要訊息因子，比其他訊息因子例如內部人持股 率更重要，但新上市後宣告財務預測的新上市公司，內部人持股比 率為主要訊息傳遞因子。
在選擇上市前宣告財務預測之公司特性方面，在訊息不對稱下 ， 內部人持股率愈高、預測每股盈餘愈高或P/E 值高具有成長股特性的 公司，為加強投資人對公司的信心，有較高的可能性選擇提前釋放 預測盈餘訊息，以降低投資人對公司的事前不確定性，而可以較高 的價格承銷，以致在新上市後有較低的承銷價折價。
綜合上述的研究結果，在訊息不對稱下，盈餘預測訊息相對於 內部人持股率，提供給投資人較直接且攸關之訊息，可作為投資人 評估新上市公司承銷價之參考，可以降低投資人對公司的事前不確 定性。在未來實施簡易式財務預測制度下，自願性的財務預測是否具 有相同的訊息效果，可做為後續研究之方向。
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