本論文利用ANOVA 與時間序列分析法對量測值歷史資料建立製程模型；為了預 測製程干擾與系統參數，將時間序列之製程模型轉換為狀態空間形式，並利用擴張卡 曼濾波器估計方法求得所需的預測製程干擾與估計參數。文中將 D-EWMA 和 time-varying D-EWMA 與擴張卡曼濾波器比較其預測效能，由第 5 章比較結果可知，
本文所提出的方法比之D-EWMA 和 time-varying D-EWMA 兩種方法而言，有著更好 的效能表現。
由第5 章的結果可以得知以下結論：
1. 利用 AVONA 分析截距，搭配執行序的使用，可以應用於半導體製程混貨生 產的製程需求，並且可以減少預測的誤差率，使預測值更具有可信度。
2. 擴張卡曼濾波器的參數估計會不斷的自動調整，比 D-EWMA 和 time-varying D-EWMA 之固定權重更為符合實際狀況。
3. 從模擬預測之比較值與實際製程之比較值可說明本論文提出的方法效能確實 優於D-EWMA 和 time-varying D-EWMA。
綜合以上，在本文中D-EWMA 與 time-varying D-EWMA 之權重由數據計算最小 的MSE 值而得，然而在實際生產過程中，權重是由工程師之經驗值所給定，由經驗 值給定權重之控制器效能並不會優於本文中由最小MSE 值所計算權重之效能，而本 文所提出之方法效能又優於給定最佳權重之方法，因此可證實由本論文所提供之方法 確能有效做到製程預測。
參考文獻
1. J. F. MacGregor, 1988, “On-line Statistical Process Control,” Chemical Engineering Process, 84, pp. 21-31.
2. G. E. Box and T. Kramer, 1992, “Statistical Process Control and Feedback Adjutment-A Discussion,” Technometrics, 34(3), pp. 251-267.
3. G. E. Box and M. Jenkins, 1976, Time Series Analysis-Forecasting and Control, Oakland, CA: Holden-Day.
4. W. T. Tuckers and F. W. Faltin, 1991, “Algorithmic Statistical Process Control: An Elaboration,” Technometrics, 35(4), pp. 363-389.
5. S. A. Vander Wiel, W. T. Tucker, F. W. Faltin, and N. Doganaksoy, 1992,
“Algorithmetric Statistical Process Control: Concepts and an Application,” Technometrics, 34(3), pp. 268-297.
6. R. L. Guldi, C. D. Jenkins, G. M. Damming, T. A. Baum, and T. A. Foster, 1989,
“Process Optimization Tweaking Tool (POTT) and its Application in Controlling Oxidation Thickness,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 2(2), pp. 54-59.
7. E. Sachs, R. Guo, S. Ha, and A. Hu, 1991, “Process Control System for VLSI Fabrication,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 4(2), pp. 134-143.
8. R. Guo and E. Sachs, 1993, “Modeling, Optimization and Control of Spatial Uniformity in Manufacturing Processes,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 6(1), pp. 41-47.
9. A. Ingolfsson and E. Sachs, 1993, “Stability and Sensitivity of an EWMA Controller,” Journal of Quality Technology, 25(4), pp. 271-287.
10. D. Boning, W. Moyne, T. Smith, J. Moyne, A. Hurwitz, S. Shellman, J. Moyne, R.
Trefeyan, and J. Taylor, 1996, “Run by Run Process Control of Chemical-Mechanical Polishing,” IEEE Trans. on Components, Packaging, and Manufacturing Technology-part
C, 19(4), pp. 307-313.
11. E. Sachs, A. Hu, and A. Ingolfsson, 1995, “Run by Run Process Control: Combining SPC and Feedback Control,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 8(1), pp. 26-43.
12. D. Boning, W. Moyne, T. Smith, J. Moyne, and A. Hurwitz, 1995, “Practical Issues in Run by Run Process Control,” IEEE/SEMI Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference, pp. 201-208.
13. T. Smith and D. Boning, 1997, “A Self-Tuning EWMA Controller Utilizing Artificial Neural Network Function Approximation Techniques,” IEEE Trans. Components, Packaging, and Manufacturing Technology, 20(2), pp. 121-132.
14. C. Spanos and S. Leang, 1992, “Statistically Based Feedback Control of Photoresist Application,” International Electronics Manufacturing Symposium, pp. 185-190.
15. S. Leang, S. Ma, J. Thomson, B. J. Bombay, and C. Spanos, 1996, “A Control for Photolithographic Sequences,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 9(2), pp.
191-206.
16. J. R. Moyne, and H. L. McAfee, Jr., 1992, “A Generic Cell Controller for the Automated VLSI Manufacturing Facility,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 5(2), pp. 77-87.
17. J. Moyne, H. Etemed, and M. Elta, 1994, “A Run-to-Run Framework for VLSI Manufacturing,” Proc. Microelectronics Process Sensors and Controls, SPIE, 2091, pp.
379-390.
18. R. Telfeyan, J. Moyne, A. Hurwitz, and J. Taylor, 1995, “Demonstration of a Process-Independent Run-to-Run Controller,” 187th Meeting of the Electrochemical Society, Reno, Nevada.
19. J. Moyne, R. Telfeyan, A. Hurwitz, and J. Taylor, 1995, “A Process-Independent Run-to-Run Controller and its Application to Chemical-Mechanical Planarization,”
SEMI/IEEE Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference and Workshop, pp.
1787-1791.
20. J. Moyne, N. Chaudhry, and R. Telfeyan, 1995, “Multi-Branch Run-to-Run Controller for Plasma Etching,” Journal of Vacuum Science and Technology, pp. 1-12.
21. P. K. Mozumder and G. G. Barna, 1994, “Statistical Feedback Control of a Plasma Etch Process,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 7(1), pp. 1-44.
22. S. Bulter and J. Stefani, 1994, “Supervisory Run-to-Run Control of Polysilicon Gate Etch Using in situ Ellipsonmetry,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 7(2), pp.
193-201.
23. M. Sullivan, S. Butler, J. Hirsch, and C.Wang, 1994, “A Control to Target Architecture for Process Control,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 7(2), pp.134-148.
24. P. Mozumder, S. Saxena, and D. Collins, 1994, “A Monitor Wafer Based Controller for Semiconductor Processes,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 7(3), pp.
400-411.
25. J. Stefani, S. Poarch, S. Saxena, and P. Mozumder, 1996, “Advanced Process Control of a CVD Tungsten Reactor,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 9(3), pp.
366-382.
26. L. Sattler and P. E. Hecher, 1998, “Reducing Cost and Increasing Throughput Using Model-Based Process Control on Sputtering System,” IEEE/CPMT International Electronics Manufacturing Technology Symposium, Austin, USA, pp. 409-414.
27. R. S. Kou, A. Chen, and J. J. Chen, 2000, “Run-to-Run Control Schemes for CMP Process subject to Deterministic Drifts,” Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology Workshop, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC, pp. 251-258.
28. S. T. Tseng, W. Song, and Y. C. Chang, 2005, “An Initial Intercept Iteratively Adjusted (IIIA) Controller: an Enhanced Double EWMA Feedback Control Scheme,”
IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 18(3), pp. 448-457.
29. A. Chen, R. Guo, Y. L. Chou, C. L. Lin, J. Dun, and S. A. Wu, 1999, “Run-to Run Control of CMP Process Considering Aging Effects of Pad and Disc,” International Symposium on Semiconductor Manufacturing, Santa Clara, CA, pp. 229-232.
30. J. H. Chen, T. W. Kou, and T. C. Chen, 2008, “Advanced Process Control of Metal Sputter Deposition Using a Time Series Analysis,” International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 36(5), pp. 501-508.
31. J. H. Chen, T. W. Kou, and A. C. Lee, 2007, “Run by Run Process Control of Metal Sputter Deposition: Combining Time Series and Extended Kalman Filter,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 20(3), pp. 278-285.
32. S. T. Tseng, R. J. Chou, and S.P. Lee, 2002, “A Study on a Multivariate EWMA Controller,” IIE Trans., 34(6), pp. 541-549.
33. E. Del Castillo and R. Rajagopal, 2002, “A Multivariate Double EWMA Process Adjustment Scheme for Drifting Process,” IIE Trans., 34(12), pp. 1055-1068.
34. L. Yang and S. H. Sheu, 2006, “Integrating Multivariate Engineering Process Control and Multivariate Statistical Control,” International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 29(1-2), pp. 129-136.
35. G. J. Wang and C. H. Wu, 2006, “Developing a Neural Network-based Run-to-Run Process Controller for Chemical-Mechanical Planarization,” International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 28, pp. 899-908.
36. C. F. Wu, C. M. Hung, J. H. Chen and A. C. Lee, 2008, “Advanced Process Control of the Critical Dimension in Photolithography,” International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing, 9(1), pp. 12-18.
37. C. H. Sun, J. H Chen, and L. J. Sheu, 2008, “A Quality Control of the Injection Molding Process Using EWMA Predictor and Minimum-Variance Controller,”
International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2, pp. 2725-2730
38. Y. Zheng, Q. H. Lin, D. S. H. Wang, S. S. Jang, and K. Hui, 2006, “Stability and Performance Analysis of Mixed Product Run-to-Run Control,” Journal of Process Control, 16, pp. 431-443.
39. A. J. Pasadyn and T. F. Edgar, 2005, “Observability and State Estimation for Multiple Product Control in Semiconductor Manufacturing,” IEEE Trans. Semiconductor Manufacturing, 18(4), pp. 592-604.
40. S. K. Firth, W. J. Campbell, A. Toprac, and T. F. Edgar, 2006, “Just-in-Time Adaptive Disturbance Estimation for Run-to-Run Control of Semiconductor Processes,” IEEE Trans.
Semiconductor Manufacturing, 19(3), pp. 298-315.
41. M. D. Ma, C. C. Chang, D. S. H. Wang, and S. S. Jang, 2009, “Identification of Tool and Product Effect in a Mixed Product and Parallel Tool Environment,” Journal of Process Control, 19(4), pp. 591-603.
42. M. D. Ma, C. C. Chang, S. S. Jang, and D. S. H. Wang, 2009, “Mixed Product Run-to-Run Process Control- An ANOVA Model with ARIMA Disturbance Approach,”
Journal of Process Control, 19(4), pp. 604-614.
43. B. Ai, Y. Zheng, S. S. Jang, Y. Wang, L. Ye, and C. Zhou, 2009, “The Optimal Drift-Compensatory and Fault Tolerant Approach for Mix-Product Run-to-Run Control,”
Journal of Process Control, 19(8), pp. 1401-1412
44. 王立夫，2007，「半導體混貨製程批次控制」，中華大學機械工程學系碩士論文。
45. 張偉麒，2008，「多重輸入輸出半導體混貨製程之製程式控制制」，中華大學機 大學機械工程學系碩士論文。