本文實證結果之推論性最大的侷限在於資料期間僅用了兩年的時間,無法 看出外銀與本國銀績效的變化相對消長,因此分析的主軸在於本國銀行與外資 銀 行 的 績 效 差 異 而 較 少 討 論 外 資 入 股 對 本 國 銀 行 績 效 的 影 響 。 由 於 在 BankScope 資料庫中對於銀行股權的資料至少有十幾年以上的時間,未來應該 將研究樣本的資料拉長,將可以充分探討外銀參股程度的高低對本國銀行績效 的影響,而這關係可能是線性或非線性的。另一方面,本文目前僅使用六國進 行分析,這些國家的區域皆集中於亞洲且經濟發展狀況相距並非很大。若能夠 取得全球主要國家的銀行資料,將可分析外資銀行在不同所得之地主國的相對 績效表現。既有實證文獻已說明在高所得國家,外銀的表現相對較差,在低所 得國家,外銀的表現相對較佳。未來的研究仍應該在調整樣本選擇偏誤後再進 行評估。
外銀進入對地主國金融穩定的影響亦相當有趣 (例如 Levine, 1996, 1999;
Demirgüc-Kunt et al., 1998; Barth et al., 2001; Stiglitz, 1993; Clarke et al., 2005;
Jeona et al., 2006; Peek and Rosengren, 1997; Caprio and Honahan, 2000; Dages et al., 2000; Dages et al., 2000; Goldberg, 2001; De Hass and Lelyveld, 2003 以及 Goldberg, 2003 等),主要是外銀進入本國銀行市場將增加競爭而降低產業利 潤,本國銀行體系承受負面衝擊的能力將變得相對較低,於是外銀進入與本國 金融穩定度將有可能呈負相關,而這也是主管機關在考慮開放外資進入的政策 時所應該考慮與評估的環節。
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