After all, the application of the OTHAIMs may help the government design realistic agricultural policy, then to sponsor more research projects. For the academia, researchers may have more insights into tea harvest, contributing to more knowledge and information altogether. This study provides an effective approach of data visualization for the officials and tea farmers to respond to the circumstances nowadays, alter the existing strategies of management, and also mitigate the prospects in the near future. To sum up, since climate change can influence the harvest timing of tea, the visualization of data, the OTHAIMs, from the past to the future can help boost the
sustainability of the tea industry in Taiwan.
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Figures
Figure 1. Statistics from FAO: world tea production from 1961 to 2018 (tonnes). Source:
FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare.
Figure 2. The concept frame from climate change, model, to the tea industry. Plotted by the author.
Figure 3. The famework of methodology. Plotted by the author.
Figure 4. The Tea Map of Taiwan. Original source: Hsieh, Po-Chung; and revised by the author.
Figure 5a. Middle: a normal tea bud waiting to expand. Photo taken by Wang, Ruei-Jyuan in 2018/4/10 in Pinglin. Figure 5b. Left: an inert bud with three terminal-facing leaves; and right: a normal bud. Photo taken by the author in 2019/4/25 in NTU.
a
b
Figure 6. Averaged daily temperature in Taiwan from 1961 to 2000 (baseline). Color bar: 5℃ (blue) to 25℃ (red). Plotted by the author.
Figure 7. The harvest timing of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011 and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: date@ Julian day
Figure 8. The scatter plot for data from Table 5. Plotted by the author.
55 60 65 70 75 80
harvest duration in real experiment (days) 60
65 70 75 80 85
harvest duration in hypothesis (days)
Reality v. Hypothesis
Chin-Shin-Oolong Jin-Shen
regress: Oolong regress: Jin-Shen
Figure 9. The sleet falling on tea trees in the plantation in Pinglin. Photo taken by Wang, Ruei-Jyuan in 2016/1/24 in Pinglin.
Figure 10. Averaged monthly precipitation in Taiwan from 1960 to 2012. Colorbar:
100 mm (blue) to 400 mm (red). Plotted by the author.
1960-2012 Monthly Precipitation in Taiwan
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
mm
Tables
Table 1. Pruning dates under experiments in 2011, 2012, and 2013, and assumptions during 2081-2100.
Year 2011 2012 2013 2081-2100
Date (Julian day)
1/31 (31) 1/31 (31) 1/28 (28) 1/30 (30) 2/11 (42) 2/10 (41) 2/8 (39) 2/9 (40) 2/21 (52) 2/21 (52) 2/19 (50) 2/19 (50) Source: Lin, Yi-Hao, Chih-Yi Hu, Cheng-Hou Chang, Cheng-Nan Lai, Iou-Zen Chen.
2016. “Establishing a Prediction Model of Tea Harvest Date.” Taiwan Tea Research Bulletin 35:1-20.
Table 2. Tea data of statistical results from TRES
Chin-Shin-oolong Jin-Shen
Spring Base temperature (Tbase) 1.8 ℃ 2.2 ℃
Growing degree-day (GDD) 989.1℃ 924.5 ℃
Source: Lin, Yi-Hao, Chih-Yi Hu, Cheng-Hou Chang, Cheng-Nan Lai, Iou-Zen Chen.
2016. “Establishing a Prediction Model of Tea Harvest Date.” Taiwan Tea Research Bulletin 35:1-20.
Table 3. Tea in Taiwan.
Level of fermentation Tea kinds Local tea kinds
Non-fermented 0% Green tea Bi-Luo-Chun (碧螺春)
Lon-Jing (龍井)
Partly-fermented
8-18% Pouchong tea Wenshan-Pouchong (文山包種) High Mountain (高山) Wholly-fermented 100% Black tea Sun Moon Lake (日月潭)
Honey Fragrance (蜜香) Source: TRES. 1987. Lectures on Technical Training in Tea Industry: 281-289. Taoyuan
County: TRES.
Table 4. Models in averaged ensemble.
MIROC-ESM-CHEM MIROC5 MPI-ESM-LR MPI-ESM-MR MRI-CGCM3
MRI-ESM1 NorESM1-M NorESM1-ME Source: TCCIP.
Table 5. Temperature data from TCCIP.
Table 6. Harvest day / harvest duration of spring pouching in the OTHAIMs
Table 7. Harvest day / harvest duration of spring pouching in the OTHAIMs
Table 8. Harvest timing differences between real experiments and hypothesis in the OTHAIMs at Mt. Wen (Wenshan Division, TRES).
Chin-Shin-Oolong Jin-Shen
Note. 2012 is a leap year, resulting 29 days in February.
Table 9. Standardization of the differences between reality and hypothesis by the durations from 2011 to 2013 at Mt. Wen.
Chin-Shin-Oolong Jin-shen
diff dura diff (%) diff dura diff (%)
1/31 (31) 5 82 6.10 5 80 6.25
2011 2/11 (42) 9 78 11.54 7 76 9.21
2/21 (52) 9 73 12.33 10 71 14.08
1/31 (31) 0 76 0 0 74 0
2012 2/10 (41) 3 71 4.23 1 69 1.45
2/21 (52) 4 67 5.97 2 65 3.08
1/28 (28) -6 68 -8.82 -5 65 -7.69
2013 2/8 (39) 0 68 0 4 66 6.06
2/19 (50) 4 65 6.15 6 63 9.52
Appendixes
Appendix 1. The Sakura Zensen, cherry blossom frontline maps, forecast issued by Japanese corporation in 2019. Source: Weathernews.
Appendix 2. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring
Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 3. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 4. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with
baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 5. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 6. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring
Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 7. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 8. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with
baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 9. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (ensemble) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 10. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 11. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 12. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 13. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 1961-2000. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 14. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 15. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Chin-Shin-Oolong spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar:
day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 16. The harvest dates of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: Julian day 50 (blue) to 200+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 17. The harvest durations of the OTHAIMs of Jin-Shen spring Pouchong tea in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2081-2100 (CESM) with different pruning dates with baseline 2011-2013. Red cross: Mt. Wen; and red circle: Mt. Ali. Color bar: day 30 (blue) to 120+ (red). Plotted by the author.
Appendix 18. Harvest day / harvest duration of spring pouching in the OTHAIMs
Appendix 19. Harvest day / harvest duration of spring pouching in the OTHAIMs