Chapter 5: Conclusions
5.4 Assumptions
Therefore, other variables such as corruption indicator, poverty reduction, transparency and level of education could be included in broader research. The financial indicators lead us to think that it is how the funds are being used that forces Nicaragua migration. Nevertheless, implementing more independent variables could represent constraints because while collecting the data for this research we observed incomplete historical observations or missing values, which create limitations for any study.
We cannot argue about the results from future applications of linear regression using the same variables. The changes in the results for future research will probably depend on the behavior of the independent variables: the effectiveness of the implementation of Net ODA per capita and GDP per capita.
We can feel assured that the objectives of the research were achieved:
1) The relationship of the variables was established and verified after conducting the linear analysis for: the simple linear regression with 11 observations, the multiple linear regression with 11 and 46 observations respectively.
2) The null hypothesis was successfully rejected thereby validating the linear model, except for the simple model with 46 observations.
3) The strength of the model was determined in an appropriate level to be accepted as a reliable system, except for the simple analysis with 46 observations
4) The nature of migration needs further and deeper studies in order to create a pattern of the reasons and effects of mass mobility: under neoliberal theories and regardless of the reasons, migration is a natural phenomenon.
In the case of Nicaragua, it is possible that Net ODA per capita accounts for a higher influence since the funds are loans that must be repaid and in order to do so, the nation's economic resources are undermined.
In summary, we were able to prove that two variables Net ODA per capita and GDP per capita are strong and valid predictors to explain Nicaragua migration.
5.4 Assumptions
Official Development Assistance (ODA) basically represents the awareness of developed economic powers and their willingness to help less-privileged countries. It is logical to assume that we believe the monetary loans provided through ODA are directed at encouraging the
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governments of low and middle-income states to improve the quality of life for their citizens.
However, the positive relationship identified between ODA and net migration in the linear model contradicts this assumption, because the number of migrants is seen to rise as ODA increases.
Ideally, ODA assistance should have a positive influence on migration by reducing the number of people who would choose to leave a country. We can speculate that the processes and terms of agreements between ODA officials and Nicaragua governments are not disclosed to the public. This situation allows the national government to use the loans with high discretion, which in turn could promote distrust among the local population that has a total lack of knowledge as to how the ODA loans are invested.
Moreover, after a long period of ODA disbursements, and because of the high discretion in the loan implementation, we could assume that the original approved projects by the ODA office and proposed for the Nicaragua government might be: wrongly selected and not beneficial for the population, not completed as originally proposed, or were designed for the benefit of particular small powerful groups linked to the government. If a project has no positive direct impact in the life of the Nicaraguan citizens, the wellbeing of the populat ion will continue deteriorating and, as a result, the necessity for a better place to live where basic needs are covered would encourage people to migrate. The lack of transparency for the disbursements and controls over the correct application of the loans during and after project completion could definitely push Nicaraguans to emigrate.
Corruption is a widespread phenomenon in Nicaraguan political society. Corruption therefore becomes a factor that affects citizens from many different aspects: Distrust is created among the population due to the lack of appropriate standards of control over the received loans.
Distrust might motivate citizens to protest against the actions of the Nicaragua government. As a result, the government could use police enforcement to repress its citizens who are protesting. For example, since April 2018, protesters in Nicaragua have being suffering police repression and thousands of citizens (students, journalists, doctors and some priests) have being forced to emigrate to avoid repression and to preserve their lives, looking for a country that can guarantee them an improved quality of life. This just happened after the people manifested disagreement for the social security reforms that the government was trying to implement in a desperate effort to compensate the grave monetary deficit of the savings of the Nicaraguan Institute of Social Security, savings that corresponded to the contributions of all Nicaraguan workers, the same funds that had been invested for the government to finance
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different governmental and private projects. Sadly those investments have not resulted in any profit to increase the initial funds of the savings institution.
In addition, there is the impact of secrecy, which has a tangible negative impact on the microeconomics of households. That is because despite the ODA assistance, the secrecy in the design and implementation of public policies creates an imbalance in the national economy, raising the cost of living in the country every day. The average social situation of Nicaragua families is within the condition of low and middle-income levels, according to research by international organizations, a reality that pushes families to evaluate the option of migrating in order to achieve better economic and social conditions for their families.
On the other hand, we might say that separate bilateral agreements between countries can accelerate the existence and acknowledgment of corruption. Despite criticism of the national police actions during the 2018 protests in Nicaragua, Taiwan donated USD3 million to the Nicaragua Police Department to improve the police hospital--a public hospital that was created to provide medical care primarily to the police officers but also Nicaraguan citizens that do not belong to the police force; however, during the social unrest, medical assistance was negated to protestors injured during the very same protests. Indeed, the lack of processes to verify the correct use of the money let people distrust the government and the donator.
Additional to this donation, Taiwan had previously donated USD30 million to build a national stadium in Managua, but the government used the money to build houses for its political supporters. Later on, the government asked for a loan from a private national bank in order to finance the construction of the stadium and eventually was successful in holding the inauguration ceremony--a baseball game between the national teams of Taiwan and Nicaragua (according to various press releases). Transparency is set aside or taken for granted once the money is in the hands of the government. The secrecy and alternate usage of the ODA funds naturally make citizens attribute dishonesty to the government and, therefore, secrecy will discourage Nicaragua citizens from staying in the country.
Therefore, we can assume that the lack of transparency and disclosure in both ODA assistance and government implementation of such assistance will result in a high level of distrust among citizens. It could create a harmful socioeconomic environment for the population and as a result, by fleeing from corruption, citizens will consider emigrating in order to satisfy their basic human needs while also seeking to improve their life conditions and secure their human rights.
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