國際援助和人均生產總值可以促使尼加拉瓜人民遷移至其他國家嗎？ - 政大學術集成

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(1)International Master's Program in International Studies National Chengchi University 國立政治大學國際研究英語碩士學位學程. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Can Foreign Assistance and GDP Per 治政 Capita Create Potential大Migration in 立 Nicaragua? 國際援助和人均生產總值可以促使尼加拉瓜人民遷移至其他國家嗎？ n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. EDUARDO RUBEN LARA GONZALEZ Advisor: Professor David Lorenzo. January 2019. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(2) Acknowledgements To God who has given me the strength to keep going through out all things in life, to all the angels that have kept by my side helping me in every difficult situation, to my family that has supported me unconditionally, to my committee members that offered advice for the thesis and to my very beloved brother David the true hero in this academic path and who has been by my side since early life and without whom this achievement would not have been possible or have become a reality. My infinite thanks.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. i. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(3) Abstract Title: Can Foreign Assistance and GDP Per Capita Create Potential Migration in Nicaragua? Pages: 82 School: National Chengchi University Department: International Master's Program in International Studies (IMPIS) Time: January 2019 Degree: Master Researcher: Eduardo Ruben Lara Gonzalez Advisor: David Lorenzo, PhD. 政治大 Keywords: Nicaragua, migration, Official Development Assistance (ODA) per capita, GDP 立 per capita, linear regression. ‧ 國. 學. How can two essential indicators create migration?. ‧. y. Nat. Located in Central America, Nicaragua has a history of outward migration despite international. sit. economic assistance through international organizations. In this sense, the monetary assistance. er. io. in the form of Net ODA per capita ideally has a relation in determining and predicting. al. n. v i n calculated. After a literature review C is gathered, step will be the acceptance U h e n gthecnext i significant h or rejection of the null hypothesis, that is: Net ODA per capita creates net migration from migration. Using STATA software, a possible relation and its level of correlation can be. Nicaragua. Under a multiple linear regression model, a second independent variable will be integrated into the analysis: GDP per capita. Both independent variables represent quantitative indicators that will validate the strength of the analysis.. ii. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(4) Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ i Abstract ................................................................................................................................ ii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................. iii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ v List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... v Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Motivation .................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Problem Statement...................................................................................................... 7. 政治大 1.5 Hypothesis .................................................................................................................. 9 立 1.4 Objectives .................................................................................................................. 9. 1.6 Thesis Structure ........................................................................................................ 10. ‧ 國. 學. Chapter 2: Literature Review.............................................................................................. 12 2.1 International Relations: Neoliberalism, Globalization, and Migration ....................... 12. ‧. 2.2 Reason for Migration ................................................................................................ 15. y. Nat. 2.3 Side Effects of Migration .......................................................................................... 17. sit. 2.4 Economic Aspect of Migration ................................................................................. 19. er. io. 2.5 International Organizations ....................................................................................... 21. al. n. v i n 2.7 Economy as Gross Domestic C Product ................................................................ 29 h e nGDP i U h c g Chapter 3: Methodology..................................................................................................... 31 2.6 Regression Line in Social Science ............................................................................ 26. 3.1 Research Strategy ..................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Research Approach ................................................................................................... 31 3.3 Data Collection......................................................................................................... 32 3.4 Research Limitations ................................................................................................ 32 3.5 Data Analysis ........................................................................................................... 32 3.5.1 Simple Linear Retrogression .............................................................................. 33 3.5.2 Multiple Linear Retrogression Analysis ............................................................. 35 3.5.3 Stata Software.................................................................................................... 37 Chapter 4: Results .............................................................................................................. 41 4.1 Simple Linear Regression Interpretation ................................................................... 42 iii. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(5) 4.2 Multiple Linear Regression Interpretations ............................................................... 46 4.3 Simple Linear Regression with Larger Size in Observations ..................................... 48 4.4 Multiple Linear Regression with Larger Universe Size ............................................. 54 4.5 Comparison: Simple – Multiple Linear Regression ................................................... 56 Chapter 5: Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 58 5.1 Simple and Multiple Lineal Regression: Population Size of 11 Observations ............ 58 5.2 Simple and Multiple Regression Analysis: Sample Size of 46 Observations ............. 60 5.2.1 Simple Linear Regression .................................................................................. 60 5.2.2 Multiple Linear Regression ................................................................................ 60 5.3 Final Analysis........................................................................................................... 61 5.4 Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 62. 治政大 Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 75 立 References .......................................................................................................................... 65. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. iv. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(6) List of Tables Table 1. Collected Data summary for linear regressions ...................................................... 43 Table 2. Nicaragua net migration rate and midyear population ............................................ 49. List of Figures. 政治大. Figure 1. Net ODA received per capita of Nicaragua. ............................................................ 4 Figure 2. Summary charts by aid (ODA) recipients. .............................................................. 5. 立. Figure 3. Research Flow Chart ............................................................................................ 11. ‧ 國. 學. Figure 4. Scatter diagram plot-Variables relationship .......................................................... 34 Figure 5. Deviation from the regression line ........................................................................ 35. ‧. Figure 6. STATA interface .................................................................................................. 38 Figure 7. Variables relationship, Linear structure model ...................................................... 39. sit. y. Nat. Figure 8: STATA software outcome. ................................................................................... 39 Figure 9. Simple linear regression outcome ......................................................................... 44. io. n. al. er. Figure 10. Scatter diagram, Net migration - Net ODA per capita ......................................... 45. i n U. v. Figure 11. Multiple linear regression outcome ..................................................................... 47. Ch. engchi. Figure 12. Simple regression Net Migration - Net ODA 1971-2016 outcome ...................... 51 Figure 13. Scatter diagram simple linear regression outcome............................................... 52 Figure 14. Simple regression Net Migration - Net ODA without years 1978,1990 and 1991 outcome .............................................................................................................................. 53 Figure 15. Scatter diagram Net Migration - Net ODA without years 1978,1990 and 1991 outcome .............................................................................................................................. 54 Figure 16. Multiple linear regression 46 observations outcome............................................ 55 Figure 17. Nicaragua Net Migration. ................................................................................... 80 Figure 18. Net ODA per capita (current US$) ...................................................................... 81 Figure 19. Nicaragua GDP per capita (current US$) ............................................................ 82. v. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(7) Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Background The Republic of Nicaragua is located on the American continent, more specifically in Central America. It is the largest country in the Central American isthmus and as of July 2017 has a population of 6,025,951 according to IndexMundi (2017). While the official language of Nicaragua is Spanish, the Republic also contains several ethnic groups, each with their own officially recognized language. It is a country with a rich and diverse history that marks important moments in the long path that has led the Nicaraguan people to where they are today. Nicaragua contains 15 departments, 153 municipalities, and 2 autonomous regions. The country is divided into 3 geographic areas: The Pacific region with 7 departments, includes the. 政治大 and is historically the oldest region 立 since colonization by the Spanish; The Central region in. capital city of Managua and other relatively developed cities (with regard to their infrastructure). ‧ 國. 學. which agriculture and animal husbandry are the major industries driving the regional economy; and the Atlantic region, where the two autonomous regions are located along with the historical home of almost all Nicaragua’s ethnic groups. Many people from these groups are leaving the. ‧. region and while sadly this part of the Nicaraguan republic is of the least importance to the. y. Nat. government, it is nonetheless home to the Bosawas biosphere reserve, which at 15% of the. io. sit. country’s total land mass is the second largest rainforest in the Americas. In 1997, the rain. er. forest was designated as a UNESCO biosphere reserve. By possessing such diversity in soil. al. n. v i n C h include coffee,Uwhich is produced mainly in the consumption but also for export. These engchi and climate, Nicaragua is able to produce a great variety of crops not only for domestic. mountainous and colder areas of the country, as well as corn, beans, milk and dairy products, and seafood and meat, while the country’s mineral rich areas also produce gold. Nicaraguan people have long lived under continuous pressure both internally and externally, many of which have been caused by wars since the beginning of its history, as well as revolution, the fight for independence and migration. In addition, Nicaragua has faced external economic and political pressure from more powerful neighboring countries that have exerted their military might over Nicaragua. The first wave of migration that we can point remotely to is the colonization period. With the discovery of America, Spanish and English citizens settled in the lands of all America thus originating the miscegenation of the newly discovered population and the old continent.. 1. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(8) That period of time hundreds of years ago, included an emigration of citizens that sets the tone to consider in retrospect the fact of selecting migration as an important variable for carrying out this research. Thus, the movement of Nicaraguan citizens seems to derive naturally from the period of the discovery of America with the settlement of European citizens. We could, in this way, state that regardless of the later findings of this research, without considering economic, social or political aspects, the perception of migration in Nicaragua is equivalent to the acceptance of this phenomenon or, in its absence, the impossibility of rejecting the veracity of migration and its impact. In addition to a wave of emigrants to areas throughout America, emigration led to the process of forming a new society in the continent. But the differences in each country would. 治政 country to country. To be specific, a lack of safety affects大 society in Honduras, our neighbor 立 to the north, a factor that is not observed in Nicaragua nor in our southern neighbor of Costa become noticeable as the phenomena of migration differs under particular circumstances from. ‧ 國. 學. Rica. Therefore, individual country level characteristics make Nicaragua migration a particular case for study using the corresponding country influencers.. ‧. War in particular has been present throughout Nicaragua’s history even over the decision of which city would be its capital. Yet Nicaragua is characterized by hardworking people who. y. Nat. sit. are always willing to achieve progress not only through cultural development, but also and. al. er. io. more importantly through economic advancement. That is why under the mandate of President. n. Anastasio Somoza DeBayle, Nicaragua was known as the barn of Central America, given that. Ch. i n U. v. its economy was able to supply the rest of Central America with all kinds of goods that it. engchi. produced at that time. Unfortunately, in July 1979, Nicaragua fell under civil war where not only the duties of the government in command were taken over, but the economy also suffered greatly. Indeed, some studies have suggested that the economy has not yet fully recovered from the effects of this period and that Nicaragua is perhaps today enduring the worst days of its history. This has forced many people to leave the country not only because of scare resources but also because of fears over personal safety. In 1990, following a period of turmoil, Nicaragua was finally able to hold free elections where by a near unanimous vote the government that had ruined the nation was removed from power and Nicaragua began a new era under the government of the first democratically elected female president. Later, elections were established every five years to allow the people to choose their leaders, elections that at least in 1996 and 2002 seemed to indicate Nicaragua was. 2. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(9) on the road to recovery. During those years, Nicaragua achieved noticeable, albeit not tremendous economic progress, accompanied by solid progress in its democracy. However, in 2007 there was a new election where tragically the same government that in 1979 had risen to power by means of war, once again took office, only this time as the result of the democratic vote using a softer, different policy to that in the past. Regrettably, when after some time the government held fresh elections and the same president was reelected only this time amid widespread allegations of corruption and a lack of political transparency. Over time, he gave increasing power to the legislature and resultantly Nicaragua’s economy has deteriorated in every way. Given this background, it is now clear to see how Nicaragua truly depends on foreign assistance (Official Development Assistance per Capita, or ODA as the selected indicator of. 治政大and get the economy back on the Nicaraguan economy flowing, help improve GDP per capita, 立 road to recovery. It is also possible to see that migration is an important factor in Nicaragua’s aid effectiveness in this research) obtained via loans from numerous organizations to keep the. ‧ 國. 學. development; therefore, this research will utilize these two indicators as the main sources for study.. ‧. The World Bank (2018g) defines Net ODA per capita under detail information as:. y. Nat. sit. Disbursements of loans made on concessional terms (net of repayments of principal) and. al. er. io. grants by official agencies of the members of the Development Assistance Committee. n. (DAC), by multilateral institutions, and by non-DAC countries to promote economic. Ch. i n U. v. development and welfare in countries and territories in the DAC list of ODA recipients;. engchi. and is calculated by dividing net ODA received by the midyear population estimate. It includes loans with a grant element of at least 25 percent (calculated at a rate of discount of 10 percent).. 3. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(10) The following figure shows a chronological disbursement (Net ODA received per capita. World Bank):. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Figure 1. Net ODA received per capita of Nicaragua. Adopted from “World Bank,” 2018g, Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.PC.ZS?locations=NI&view=chart. ‧. Nat. sit. y. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2018a), defines the. io. n. al. er. distribution of net ODA as:. i n U. v. Geographical aid allocations. Net ODA may be distributed by income group (least. Ch. engchi. developed countries, other low-income countries, lower middle-income countries, upper middle-income countries, unallocated and more advanced developing countries and territories) or by geography (sub-Saharan Africa, South and Central Asia, other Asia and Oceania, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, and unspecified).. At the same time, there are different ways loans can be made, in a direct monetary way (money given from the donors to recipient’s countries), this given money will be implemented in the areas of education, health, and economic infrastructure among others. It also can be given in a technical way (more likely for agricultural assistance) as showed in the following figures: (Foreign assistance distribution in Nicaragua, OECD). 4. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(11) 政治大. Figure 2. Summary charts by aid (ODA) recipients. Adopted from “Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,” 2018b, Retrieved from https://public.tableau.com/views/OECDDACAidataglancebyrecipient_new/Recipients?:embed=y&:display_cou nt=yes&:showTabs=y&:toolbar=no?&:showVizHome=no. 立. ‧ 國. 學. Meanwhile, the United Nations (2017, p13) International Migration Report refers to net. ‧. migration as:. Nat. sit. y. Net migration, for a given country and time period, refers to the difference between the. io. er. number of immigrants and the number of emigrants, irrespective of citizenship. If more people immigrate than emigrate, the country gains population due to positive net. n. al. i n U. v. migration, or net immigration; when more people emigrate than immigrate, the country. Ch. engchi. loses population through negative net migration, or net emigration.. Moreover, the World Bank (2018f) defines Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP per capita in current US$) as:. Gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars.. 5. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(12) GDP per capita is very important in short words because we can find out how good a country’s economy is and how wealthy the population of that country is, so we can say that the higher GDP per capital a country has, the best its population lives.. 1.2 Motivation When reviewing information on Nicaragua’s history it is possible to identify different aspects that mark with great importance each and every stage that Nicaragua has encountered. Be it natural disasters or political conflicts either internally and externally, these events have brought with them an impact that for some has been positive and for others less so, and even extremely negative. Therefore, the AID of other countries has been crucial for the economic stability and for the development of each individual who seeks a better standard of living. And. 政治大 to implement better and more far reaching AID programs, it is still possible to observe some 立 movement of people emigrating to different regions. yet despite the generous and effective AID plans both monetarily and via management of how. ‧ 國. 學. 1) Personal experience: born in 1986, I lived the first years of my childhood in a neighboring country without knowing that my family had emigrated from our. ‧. hometown in Nicaragua in 1979 due to the turmoil that the country was going through. 2) Social media: Nicaraguan news about the National government’s efforts to receive. y. Nat. sit. foreign aid to benefit all sectors of the Nicaragua economy for a better, more effective,. er. io. and more rapid growth path. As showed by Espinoza (2017) more than $900 million. al. v i n infrastructure in the capital the same time, we can see news concerning C city. U h e At i h n c g Nicaraguan migration towards foreign countries; Romero (2017) talks about migration n. dollars in loans were given to the Nicaragua government to improve the road. and the three countries that are most likely destinations for Nicaraguan people to migrate to. 3) Social reality: Through mass communication media we can see how the Nicaraguan citizens have sought a better living standard, by pursuing improvements in health, education, and income. As a result, the option for immigration is a latent consideration. The minimum wage and the basket of goods show a disproportionate relationship. According to Bejarano (2018) the maximum and minimum range for minimum wages ranges between C$4,176.69 and C$9,346.59 (Nicaraguan Cordobas – agricultural sector and insurance/financial sectors). This amounted corresponded to US$134.02 and US$299.59 (based on the official exchange rate (Banco Central de Nicaragu,. 6. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(13) March 2018). While the basket of goods, according to Instituto Nacional de Informacion de Desarrollo (2017) was available from C$12,577.49 (US$439.61), corresponding to the official exchange rate (Banco Central de Nicaragu, June, 2016). Given this we can see that the minimum wage is not enough to cover the basket of goods. 4) Long term Dependency: Since the 1960’s Nicaragua has received ODA disbursements. Currently, according to the World Bank (2018a), Nicaragua continues to be classified as a low-middle income country. The ODA disbursement have been continuously provided to Nicaragua governmental agencies .. Based on these observations, we can take into true consideration just how important it is. 治政大foreign assistance and migration way for the nation as a whole. But also, and most importantly, 立 are really important for a society since foreign aid or assistance is a facilitator for people to. for a country like Nicaragua to obtain ODA and to implement better conditions in a continuous. ‧ 國. 學. work and achieve a better standard of living, which brings with it a higher GDP per capita, but without a key and truly important sector like labor, foreign assistance will mean nothing.. ‧. 1.3 Problem Statement. y. Nat. sit. Net ODA per capita, as well as migration, are for many people of Nicaragua issues isolated. al. er. io. from social reality. Both points, which create an impact on society in Nicaragua, are unknown. v. n. in terms of their importance because the real figures or corresponding measurements are not available.. Ch. engchi. i n U. We can speculate that internal factors such as the economy, health, education, and social welfare play a predominant role in Nicaraguan migration. In addition, international factors such as family members, friends, or acquaintances have an influence on migration, while the perception of better economic opportunities in foreign countries are external stimuli for migration. As secluded factors from each other, migration and Net ODA are observed and recognized only by those who have a close working relationship with them, or for whom migration and net ODA directly or indirectly influences their lives and, to an extent, the future after the implementation and experimentation of these two key factors. Net ODA, when entering the national budget of Nicaragua, represents tangible results through the projects or the corresponding usage in which these funds are implemented. 7. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(14) according to previously established agreements. There is no doubt that the necessity for these financial resources is essential for the balance and promotion of the quality of life in Nicaragua. However, unanimity about the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of these funds (as definite and accurate measured results) is not concrete. The criticism towards foreign assistance, by pointing out the weaknesses in its implementation, represents a problem for the total positive acceptance of international aid, which for some people may constitute a door for the flight of monetary resources. Also, the lack of a reliable measurement with respect to the implementation of the international financial assistance poses a problem that increases: 1) Distrust in the population towards the government of the country and its capability in terms of fund management. 治政大 and international agents. intentions expressed and agreed between the government 立. 2) The belief of the existence of possible secondary purposes that do not refer to the. ‧ 國. 學. Logically, we can establish an empirical connection between the importance that represents Net ODA and migration in Nicaragua. In other words, the improvement in the. ‧. quality of life of the population of Nicaragua that would depend on international assistance is impaired. The aforementioned problems are found in relation to Net ODA per capita.. y. Nat. sit. Thus, migration in a society as a whole, and demarcated from the implications it brings to. er. al. n. society in Nicaragua.. io. the country, leads to problems at different country levels including individuals, families, and. Ch. i n U. v. 1) Migration, in terms of cons, brings core problems to households that experience it. On. engchi. many occasions, one or more family members leave the country and despite the longing or reasons for the migration, the family disintegration can have a negative repercussion on both family members who remain and the country of origin, as well as on the family members who leave the country. a. For instance, the psychological impact on children can negatively affect education, school attendance, and social skills up to the point of becoming an agent of social instability. Family mutilation can bring disinterest in unity and therefore apathy towards improvement by society as a whole. b. Young people and adults can experience depression, anguish, and fear. For those who leave the country, feelings of regret or disinterest to support the members of their family have been observed in some cases. If apathy is observed on the part. 8. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(15) of the migrant, the negative consequences on the residing family at the country of origin can be even more aggravated and more negative. 2) For society, the flight of human capital is a major problem from an economic perspective. The labor force, which is reduced over time, could have a negative impact on both foreign direct investments and national investments for the promotion of new jobs. The human capital that leaves the country increases the drain of knowledge and trained manpower. The skilled workforce and education of those who know the culture and real circumstances of the country, creates a lack of human resources locally that hinders the economic growth of the country in terms of productivity.. From a global perspective, migration often negatively affects both receiving countries and. 治政 deficiency of laws and knowledge increases social, labor,大 and economic problems for both 立 countries.. countries of migratory origin. Cultural, educational, and language shocks in addition to a. ‧ 國. 學. In this way, as both migration and foreign assistance in the absence of adequate guidelines increases, negative consequences trigger a spiral effect at regional levels.. ‧. 1.4 Objectives. y. Nat. sit. Given this, this research paper is oriented towards the following objectives:. al. n. v i n To find the strength of the foreign assistance or Net ODA C hrelationship between U i e h n c (independent variable) and migrationg(dependent variable), in a first stage and in to other countries.. 2). er. io. 1) To focus analysis on how important foreign assistance could be to the flow of people. a second stage to analyze the tendency of migration by adding a second variable in this case GDP per capita (independent variable) in a multiple regression line with independent variables 3) To establish a past, current and future tendency once foreign assistance, GDP per capita, and migration are linked under the selective methodology.. 1.5 Hypothesis For the simple linear regression, the hypotheses are stated as follows: 1) Null hypothesis: there is no linear relationship between migration and ODA per capita. 9. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(16) 2) Alternative hypothesis: there is linear relationship between migration and ODA per capita.. As explained earlier, after running the simple regression, we will run a multiple linear regression. Consequently, the previous set of hypotheses will have a second proposal as follows: 1) Null hypothesis: there is no correlation between the dependent variable and the predictors. All the coefficients of the independent variables are equal to zero. 2) Alternative hypothesis: there is a correlation between the dependent variable and the predictors. At least one of the independent variables coefficients is different from zero.. The two sets of hypotheses will be scrutinized under the application of the models with. 政治大. their corresponding data and software development.. 立. 1.6 Thesis Structure. ‧ 國. 學. The structure of the thesis comprises five chapters through which the research of the proposed topic will be developed, revolving around those key points selected as the framework.. ‧. These key points will help to create a focus of the work as it flows.. In chapter one we will introduce the country with general data and facts as a starting point. y. Nat. er. io. a graph for a simple visualization of the research.. sit. of the research. Including definitions, motives, observed problems, objectives, hypotheses and. al. v i n for migration and the Net ODA perC capita as the main nominated variables. Preponderance to hengchi U support the conduct of this work is necessary to achieve relevance to the analysis of the n. Chapter two will contain the relevant works from a literature review that support the ideas. relationship between Net ODA and migration. Chapter three will explain the methodology with basic theory for the understanding of the application of subsequent corresponding procedures in the following chapter. Chapter four will practically develop through software the analysis of the collected data from the available sources. Application of the particular program facilitates the understanding and visualization of the numerical relationship of the variables in chapter one. Finally, chapter five will contain the analysis of the results obtained from the application of the program in chapter four. We will be able to obtain conclusions that will relate to the objectives of the thesis. Also recommendations for future studies will be reflected in the concluding chapter.. 10. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(17) Introduction. Literature/Data source selection. Data management. 政治大 Stata 立 application. n. al. y. sit er. io Acceptance/ conclusions. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Nat. Identify outcomes. i Rejection/ n Ch e nconclusions gchi U. v. Figure 3. Research Flow Chart. 11. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(18) Chapter 2: Literature Review Negative effects are detected while investigating migration research. Among them, education and health problems have been the focus of many journal publications and so too form the focus of this section. However, positive effects are also found if the investigation is expanded further.. 2.1 International Relations: Neoliberalism, Globalization, and Migration Although the theory of Neoliberalism has been related to economics, the implementation of direct analysis of the theory is implicitly connected to migration under a linkage of globalization and current worldwide economic practices. Neoliberalism, as one of the suitable. 政治大 Neoliberalism is not the final answer 立 but instead a reason for migration.. theories, acts an umbrella for migration regardless of possible critiques. That is to say,. ‧ 國. 學. The rise of new reformed international relations theories, including neoliberalism, has taken place over the last few decades, and complementing the existing classical theories. The emergence of neoliberalism represents an opportunity for understanding migration under the. ‧. concept and perspective of the new liberal approach. Challenging the general tendency of. y. Nat. addressing migration with negative perspectives, refutation was proposed by De Genova, Ong. io. sit. and Rosewarne who indicated that when viewed from the perspective of neoliberal policy, we. er. begin to see quite a different image of irregular migration. Furthermore, more critical research. al. n. v i n C how such a role infers transnational capital accumulation and h e n g c h i U a tolerance of such migration (as. into irregular migration spotlights the position held by governments in assisting with. cited in McNevin, 2006, p. 140).. For McNevin (2006), the acceptance of migrants into the economy and political society is practical but with a restriction of legal participation as native members of the receiving country. Therefore, irregular migrants are suitable under neoliberal characteristics for economy and labor force mainly but with a limit of complete neoliberal belief which suggests migration would benefit the overall performance of the economic growth. Accepting the benefits generated by migrants but establishing constraints to the benefits the country offers to citizens summarizes the article evaluation. Following the definition already introduced, Neoliberalism is expanded in its application with globalization and cooperation. Mansbach and Tyler (2007) indicated states are looking for absolute gain in their interaction with the other states. While doing so, the cooperation 12. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(19) among states allows the use of international institutions as actors, creating a network of interdependence of economics, trade and politics. And the interaction takes the form of cooperation, which can be a starting point of globalization and international migration. As cooperation became necessary, other actors, besides the central part of governments, such as Non-Governmental Organizations or international agencies and institutions contribute to the observations made and in themselves influence migration. As mentioned by Castles (2002, abstract), “Globalization, defined as a proliferation of cross-border flows and transnational networks, has changed the context for migration. New technologies of communication and transport allow frequent and multi-directional flows of people, ideas and cultural symbols.” Ferguson and Gupta noted that “western donors, Nongovernmental Organizations representatives, and international investors create the context. 政治大. for the emergence of new forms of neoliberal governmentalities that are transitional” (as cited in Cotoi, 2011, p. 121).. 立. Mansbach and Tyler (2007, p. 27) mentioned that “Neoliberals are strong supporters of. ‧ 國. 學. international organization. Such organizations, they believe, help states coordinate their activities by allowing for repeated interactions. In this way, international institutions promote. ‧. order and achieve goals that no single state could achieve on its own.” An appreciation about cooperation, globalization, and coordination and their natural relation under Neoliberalism is. sit. y. Nat. acceptable.. er. io. Globalization is both the result and a proposer of migration carrying along economic results. Castle and Miller and Sassen commented, “International migration is widely. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. recognized as an integral component of globalization” (as cited in Sanderson and Kentor, 2009,. engchi. p. 301). International movement is an amalgamation about the ideas of Glick Schiller, Basch and Szanton Black and Portes, Guarnizo and Landolt who agreed on and unanimously expressed that “International migrants facilitate globalization processes by linking together disparate peoples and places into an increasingly single, shared global political-economic context” (as cited in Sanderson and Kentor 2009, p. 301). Migration takes importance under the core of globalization. Therefore, the treatment and policies toward migrants are followed and promulgated by those respective organizations or actors in the global scenario. Therefore, this organization creates pressure on states to validate the needs of migrants in their different classifications. Jacobsen (1996, p. 663) commented:. The threat of bad international publicity is used by refugee organizations to pressure host governments towards more positive refugee policies. Most governments desire to be in 13. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(20) good international standing and do not wish to appear inhumane, so the publicity given to refugee abuses is a political consideration shaping their responses.. Nevertheless, the extent of the force created by those organizations depends on the reality of the situation. Both push for the helpful resolution of migration issues and are reluctant to accept that any impulsion exists. The nation's response to the pressure exerted by such international organizations is seen in some cases to have possible negative disposition. Sarin (2003, p. 8) wrote that a “growing number of nations, both developed and developing, have adopted policies aimed at curtailing, rather than encouraging, immigration.” This is noticeable in recent events. As Nicaragua citizens represent a good example of a country with migration experiences, the antagonism of the Nicaragua government has also been observed. Jose (2018, para. 4 & 5) wrote:. 立. 政治大. A wave of migrants seeking to reach the United States before that country stiffened its. ‧ 國. 學. immigration policy generated a crisis to which several Central American countries, as well as Colombia and Mexico, sought a solution. But the government in Managua, headed. ‧. since 2007 by the Sandinista National Liberation Front's (FSLN) Daniel Ortega, refused to participate in joint actions to facilitate the mobility of the 3,000 Cubans who had been. y. Nat. al. er. io. sit. stranded in Costa Rica, on the border with Nicaragua.. n. The roles of all actors in the migration field are clear. By accepting the absolute gain by. Ch. i n U. v. states, and therefore, the acceptance of a Neoliberal theory, the creation of definitive policies. engchi. toward migration should be adequate and equally shared among all participants both the individual (migrant) society and at the state level. However, reality is different according to Castles (2004, p. 852), “Migration policies often fail to achieve their declared objectives or have unintended consequences, three sets of reasons for this: factors arising from the social dynamics of the migratory process; factors linked to globalization and transnationalism; and factors within political systems.” Oberman (2015, p. 240) addressed that “while the importance of the human right to stay and its implications regarding poverty alleviation has been overlooked, the very existence of the human right to immigrate has been denied.” Migration includes, in a general comment, a positive contribution to states through the exercise of migrant labor. Ostergaard-Nielsen (2003, p. 9) better summarizes Neoliberal ideas and migration while proposing: “in theory, of the neoliberal kind, migration should be a win-win situation. It is therefore in the interest of sending 14. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(21) countries to control who leaves and who does not, to ensure that migrants return with skills.” This assertion, intrinsically involves the work of the nature of Neoliberalism and the actors within its application.”. 2.2 Reason for Migration From a personal point of view, migration is the single result of a personal choice behind which a range of diverse reasons are hidden. It is a resolution involving a desire to overcome, in most cases, negative current life circumstances. The desire to improve one's life situation might be a fitting explanation for migration in a general perspective without eliminating multiple motivations for each and every single migrant and their background. Clark and Maas (2015, p.65) in their work concluded:. 政治大 Households do move to improve economically or in social terms. In this sense, the long立 term concern with gains from migration is relevant and useful. At the same time, this. ‧ 國. 學. research documents in greater detail than previously that moving to improve is a multidimensional process. Jobs per se are only one of the driving forces in relocation. ‧. choice although they are the context within which moves occur.. y. Nat. sit. Nowadays the reality of migration covers people of all ages, gender, and educational level. al. er. io. among other aspects. The concern for restricting migration to a particular and clearly identified. v. n. field is erroneous. Talented well-educated people are mentioned on Cerdin, Diné and Brewster. Ch. (2014, p. 152) whose work indicated:. engchi. i n U. Effective talent management in an international organization implies making the best use of talent from anywhere in the world. This means understanding what motivates the talented individuals to migrate, which, as we show in this study, is closely connected with their successful integration.. Young migrants have captured more attention in recent times. The action of young migration is viewed as tangible while the traditional idea of old people migration is set aside. Tucker, Torres-Pereda, Minnis, and Bautista-Arredondo (2013) explained for almost one-third of the migrant youth, their parents made the final decision to migrate without consulting the youth. Nevertheless, opposing to the migrating decision was not analyzed because youngers. 15. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(22) considered migration was an alternative in order to achieve a better life with better educational opportunities for them. Tucker et al. (2013, para. 19) also preponderated that “the most common reason for migration echoed amongst almost all migrant youth was financial need and lack of local employment opportunities in their home communities.” On the motivations for younger migration from the Central American region, under the specific and powerful reason of social unease experienced by citizens in the 1990s and which has not yet concluded, Monico (2017, para. 6 & 7) commented:. Civil wars in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala may have ended in the 1990s, but the violence has taken new forms. Since the wars, organized crime and corruption within Northern Triangle countries have become widespread. They are key factors that “push”. 治政 region, and there are limited educational opportunities大 for youth. These factors create the 立 allure of opportunity in the north that “pulls” young people to migrate far from home. migrants to move out. Meanwhile, there has been little economic development in the. ‧ 國. 學. Specifically, Nicaragua and the reasons for migration are linked to political instability.. ‧. War and socio-economic hardships, as the result of this civil confrontation, ignited the movement out of the country because of the difficulties during the period. Without discarding,. y. Nat. sit. but on the contrary adding to the previous economic, family, and professional migration. al. er. io. reasons, the high level of migration in Nicaragua derives from political reasons and war. This. n. asseveration has echoes in Cervantes-Rodriguez (2006, para. 9) who pointed out that:. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Large-scale emigration from Nicaragua during the so-called "Sandinista period" (19791989) was propelled by the proliferation of political turmoil and life-threatening scenarios, a widespread shortage of consumption items, unemployment, and a worsening of living conditions for certain segments of the population. The dramatic scenario within which emigration took place in the 1980s was framed by the imposition of US economic sanctions, and the Sandinistas' misleading economic policies and escalating corruption. By the mid-1980s, the migration process itself further propelled emigration through "the demonstration effect" (i.e. the imitation of consumption habits developed by migrants) and "relative deprivation" (i.e. the sense of deprivation based on the income earned by emigrants and returnees and their overall standards of living).. 16. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(23) The aftermath of social and political disputes embraced a high determinant for Nicaragua migration. Although without the same connotation, even natural disasters have influenced the migration process. Even in the current situation and with an increasing probability of occurrence, natural disasters have become a motivation for Nicaragua motivation that cannot be discarded. As mentioned by Loebach (2016, p. 188):. Within the context of developing communities and in cases in which a disaster impacts a households’ incomes and capitals by disrupting the functioning of the local economy and destroying a productive assets and land, the pursuit of livelihood migration is a plausible ex-post household adaptation response.. 政治大 The number of migrants is remarkable and undeniable. Around the world, under different 立 circumstances and for various reasons, migration continues to take place. As the number of 2.3 Side Effects of Migration. ‧ 國. 學. migrants increases in North America, particularly among Latinos, the attention towards migration is real and growing. For Santiago-Rivera (2003) Latinos comprises a diversified. ‧. group of people who come from different Spanish-speaking nations. Santiago-Rivera (2013, p. 1) also comments that:. sit. y. Nat. er. io. This remarkable growth, coupled with the potential negative effects of the migration and. al. v i n inequities associated with access place Latino individuals and their C toh quality health care, U i e h n families at risk for developing physical g andc psychological problems. Despite the risk n. adaptation process, poverty, discrimination in education and employment, and the. associated with these life circumstances, Latinos historically have underutilized psychological services.. Also, migration imposes effects on members of the migrating family. The migration action is not an isolated decision without any consequences. On the contrary, it is a choice that introduces not only a change in life for family members but also carries with it a heavy burden. Silver (2014, p. 196) indicated:. The out migration of family members may induce significant stressors both at the point of migration and during its aftermath. For transnational families, stresses associated with. 17. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(24) migration may include: 1. familial separation; 2. the breakdown of social support networks and; 3. the addition of new roles and responsibilities for all family members. In addition, Feliciano (2005, p. 841) stated that “immigrants, especially from Asia and Latin America, have entered the United States in record numbers since 1965- This seemingly endless immigration flow will shape American society in crucial ways, and its impact hinges on the adaptation of immigrants, and, most critically, their children.” The possible negative effects of migration might be observed in both members of the family who stay at the hometown and in those who immigrate. In his study, Hovey (2000, p. 126) indicated that:. 治政大 Guatemala, and Nicaragua trauma) in Central American countries such as El Salvador, 立 may result in elevated levels of distress among individuals in these countries. Greater The recent sociopolitical climate (e.g., civil war, government repression, and resulting. ‧ 國. 學. premigration trauma among Central Americans may therefore account for greater distress after migration.. ‧. Hovey (2000, p. 125) also suggested that “family dysfunction, ineffective social support,. y. Nat. sit. nonpositive expectations concerning the future, low levels of religiosity, low levels of. er. io. education and income, and lack of agreement with the decision to immigrate were significantly associated with high levels of depression and suicidal ideation.”. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. With the same relevance, health and education are fields are seen as primary factors for. engchi. those people related with migration. Prior and post migration, problems regarding the education of migrants are noticeable. Portes and Rumbaut suggest:. Poverty among immigrants is not the result of their immigrant status or a lack of hard work, but a direct result of their lack of education. The argument that education is the best predictor of economic success leads to the conclusion that adult education has a significant role to play in providing effective education programs for immigrant Americans, since such programs could be their first exposure to the culture of Americas educational systems (as cited in Alfred 2002, p. 5).. 18. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(25) Migrants' identity, culture, and practices, to a certain extent, present an element of ambiguity when taking into consideration the stress generated by radically changing their environment and surroundings. A correct statement by Vertovec (2004, p. 970) says:. Migrant transnational practices are involved in more deep-seated patterns of change or structural transformation. Such modes of transformation concern: 1) an enhanced 'bifocality' of outlooks underpinning migrant lives lived here-and-there; such dual orientations have considerable influence on transnational family life and may continue to affect identities among subsequent post-migration generations; 2) heightened challenges to 'identities-borders-orders' stemming from migrants' political affiliations in more than one nation-state; these particularly arise around questions of dual citizenship and. 治政 sheer scale and evolving means of remittance sending.大立. nationality; and 3) potentially profound impacts on economic development by way of the. ‧ 國. 學. Such identity will be preserved with demonstrated behaviors. Mooney (2003, p. 1166) found that:. ‧. Three indicators of close social ties among migrants who live in the U.S. - migrants who. y. Nat. sit. live with family members or townspeople from Mexico and migrants who participate in a. al. er. io. social club with other migrants - help determine which migrants spend remittances and. n. savings on housing or production rather than spending them on consumption.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. These findings demonstrate a positive aspect of migration contrary to many of the negative effects observed.. 2.4 Economic Aspect of Migration As published by M2 Presswire (2018, para. 1) in its release Remittance market 2018 Global Analysis, Opportunities and Forecast to 2022:. Remittance is referred to as the money sent by immigrants to their families residing in their native countries. Remittance market plays a vital role in the economic growth and livelihoods of people across the world. Remittance inflows in developing countries make. 19. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(26) a notable share in their GDPs. The market is completely dependent on the migrated population living across the world.. As regards pro migration supports, migration, in fact, boosts economic benefits for countries. The ideas of the economics benefits of migration, which have created controversial opinions, are summarized with clear assertion by Clemens (2017, p. 1) “International migration and economic development are woven together. Over the long term, each supports the other in a virtuous cycle. Migration is thus one of many forms of development. Without this fundamental understanding, policy to regulate migration can go badly astray.” The flow of money between countries from migrant senders to families in their home country has fluctuated without losing the importance of migration in the past few decades.. 治政 low- and middle- income countries in 2017, remittances to大 low and middle-income countries 立 had a boost with record level in year 2017. The report estimates an official amount of $466. According to the Asia News Monitor (2018) in its reports World: Record high remittances to. ‧ 國. 學. billion in remittances which shows and 8.5 percentage increment. Worldwide remittances are expected to follow the same trend in 2018 at $4642 billion, equivalent to 4.6 percent growth.. ‧. Migrants' motivation towards achieving a better standard of living is eminent in the social circumstances of developing countries. As proposed by Diaz-Briquets and Perez-Lopez. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. (1997, p. 411):. n. The Notion that the determinants of remittances generated by refugee flows, particularly. Ch. i n U. v. from Communist-inspired systems, are different from those associated with labor. engchi. migrations. Labor migration, by definition, involves the voluntary departure from the home country in search of better economic options, whereas refugees, including those from communist systems, depart their homelands for a combination of political and economic reasons. These differences have a major bearing on how labor migrants and refugees perceive their relationship with countries of origin. The propensity of labor migrants to dissociate themselves from the home country is considerably less than among refugees whose perceptions are mediated by opposition to the ruling regime and other factors, such as political relations between refugee-sending and refugee-receiving countries and whether or not there has been a regime change or one is expected to occur. The conceptual issues elaborated here are based on the Cuban-American experience, but also reflect an assessment of Nicaraguan emigration during the 1980s.. 20. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(27) This is important since the history of Nicaragua includes both kinds: refugees and migrants. Diaz-Briquets and Perez- Lopez (1997, p. 411) also confirmed that “remittances, or the funds that transnational migrants send to their home countries, have become a major factor in international financial flows and in the economic well-being of many countries.” Adding to this, Shera and Meyer (2013, p. 4) corroborated the above suggestion by saying that “This flow of money across borders has profound social and economic impacts on various aspects of the home countries. In particular, remittances promote access to financial services for the sender and the recipient, thereby increasing financial and social inclusion.” Interpretation of their ideas can be stronger, as Shera and Meyer (2013, p. 9) added, “Migrant transfers in the form of remittances can ease the immediate budget constraints of families by bolstering crucial spending needs on food, health care, and schooling expenses for. 治政大of international remittances of Adams and Page (2005 p. 1660) analyzed the results 立 migrants and their impact on developing countries, finding that there was a strong statistically their children.”. ‧ 國. 學. significant effect on reducing poverty. “On average of 10% increase in the share of international migrants in a country’s population will lead to a 2.1% decline in the share of. ‧. people living on less than $1.00 per person per day.”. Years later Acosta, Calderon, Fajnzylber and Lopez (2008, p.110) reinforce the idea,. Nat. sit. y. concluding that “migration and remittances have statistically significant poverty-reducing. er. al. n. receiving countries.”. io. effects that appear to operate mainly through increases in per capita income of remittances-. Ch. i n U. v. Therefore, it is a tangible observation made by OxResearch Daily Brief Service (2017,. engchi. para. 9 &10) in its Latin America: Brain drain negates remittances when talking about the Latin American and Caribbean countries LAC, stating that:. Depending on the country, family remittances offer a broad range of benefits for LAC households and economies: They provide a crucial 'extra' income that helps poor families meet basic needs, including food, housing, education and healthcare. Some households also use part of this income for savings, investments and small business ventures.. 2.5 International Organizations International organizations provide support through economic cooperation work with developing countries such as Nicaragua. Strong and very well-defined motives are stated by. 21. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(28) the international institutions. The World Bank (2012) wrote that it “lends money to middleincome countries at interest rates lower than the rates on loans from commercial banks. In addition, the Bank lends money at no interest to the poorest developing countries, those that often cannot find other sources of loans.” In addition, the organization states the fields that received the support of this lends money as follows: • Supply safe drinking water • Build schools and train teachers • Increase agricultural productivity • Manage forests and other natural resources • Build and maintain roads, railways, and ports • Extend telecommunications networks • Generate and distribute energy • Expand health care. 立. • Modernize. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Works in particular directed projects show the initiative of the World Bank to contribute. ‧. to the progress of developing countries. As one of the pillars for development of any nation, education has positioned itself as an essential and crucial measurement by adding to a. y. Nat. al. er. io. sit. developing nation's growth. On their work Collins and Rhoads (2010, p. 182) expressed:. n. In time, we came to center our concern about the relationship between the Bank and. Ch. i n U. v. universities in the developing world on issues best described as neocolonial and neoliberal,. engchi. the former conveying new forms of global hegemony advanced by powerful nations and their institutions, and the latter representing an economic ideology by which weaker nations may be brought into greater alignment with global trade initiatives.. Equally, projects around the world have been selected to create an ideal atmosphere for the wellbeing of citizens. The mentality of the projects aims to minimize those factors, in addition to poverty and economic limitations that nurture a lower quality of life. Raffo, Bliss, Shotten, Sleet and Blanchard (2013) used the road safety project as an example of this mentality as implemented by Argentina in cooperation with the World Bank in promoting a healthier life conditions. At the same time, Stern, Dethier and Rogers said: “Country development aims to promote higher living standards for all, with an emphasis on. 22. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(29) improved health, education, employment, and people’s ability to participate in the economy and society” (as cited in Raffo, Bliss, Shotten, Sleet and Blanchard 2013, p. 20-21). On its website of the 35 country members, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2018c) states that it “uses its wealth of information on a broad range of topics to help governments foster prosperity and fight poverty through economic growth and financial stability. We help ensure the environmental implications of economic and social development are taken into account.” In addition, the OECD's work has included migration issues in cooperation with the Organization of the America States, Economic Organization for Cooperation and Development (2017), as revealed in its report International Migration in The Americas saying:. 治政大without a mention of what might which transcend national borders, is not a complete one 立 be called “flight migration”, from conflict zones, natural catastrophes or conditions of. Economic migration in the LAC region, driven by labor needs in regional labor markets. ‧ 國. 學. economic collapse or underdevelopment. (Part I, p. 27).. ‧. Under the perspective of the international organization, working in favor of battling a range of difficulties present in developing countries such as poverty or international debt (the. y. Nat. sit. former being a reason for people to migrate), as well as, promoting the sustainable development. al. n. Therefore, for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2018):. Ch. engchi. er. io. of the welfare of citizens is the core of efforts prompting the work of international assistance.. i n U. v. Financial assistance has evolved from helping countries deal with short-term trade fluctuations to supporting adjustment and addressing a wide range of balance of payments problems resulting from terms of trade shocks, natural disasters, post-conflict situations, broad economic transition, poverty reduction and economic development, sovereign debt restructuring, and confidence-driven banking and currency crises.. In addition, the United Nations (2014) on its report of the intergovernmental committee explained:. ODA continues to provide essential financial and technical cooperation to many developing countries, including least developed countries and many African countries, landlocked developing countries, small island developing States, and countries affected 23. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(30) by conflict. In most countries with government spending of less than PPP$ 500 per person per year, ODA accounts for an average of more than two thirds of international resource flows (p, 10).. Therefore, efforts and works directed at developing countries is primarily for the development of the countries which, after the necessary negotiation, establish an agreement for work aimed to boost developing country economies in the framework of all settled parameters for the benefit of the population. In its report, the Wall Street Journal (August 30, 2010, para. 1,2) “IMF Expands Loan Offering to Developing Countries” noted that the IMF “would broaden the kinds of loans it offers to encourage a large swath of developing countries to get financial help before they are engulfed in crisis. Under a new "precautionary credit line,". 治政大been observed in the interaction Currently some critics and changes--as expected--have 立 between international organizations and the countries they assist. The boards of the institutions countries whose policies it generally endorses.”. ‧ 國. 學. accepted disagreements uncovered with emerging states concerning the processes and applications of the international institutions' objectives. The related proposal of a strong. ‧. position of new states is made by Qu and Walter who said “China denounced this surveillance framework as discriminatory because, in practice, it left developed countries free from IMF. Nat. sit. y. surveillance while making developing countries its primary target” (as cited in Zangl, Heußner,. al. er. io. Kruck and Lanzendörfer, 2016, p. 185).. n. Therefore, the criticism about international assistance is necessary. In the same rhetoric. Ch. i n U. v. as a supporting role of the work of Qu’s and Walter’s, Zangl et al. (2016, p. 185) observed. engchi. “China demanded IMF surveillance practices should target not only developing countries, but also developed countries, including the US and the EU. China criticized the IMF’s surveillance of its member states’ obligation to guarantee domestic financial stability.” The method of the delivered assistance is also a key point receiving arguments among analysts. The probability of the assurance for a complete success of the methodology of international assistance is not one hundred percent. However, the benefits of economic improvements are evident. Iimi and Ojima (2008) suggested the concessional attachment to ODA loans can augment empirically the recipient economic growth. Developing countries can enter a long-term relation in order to magnify its economy regardless external factors as long as the scope of the loans follows the desired goals. Other players might interfere or facilitate the attachment of developing countries to international monetary assistance organizations. Aftermath of negative impact in developing 24. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(31) countries tip the scale in favor of seeking international assistance. Swamy (2001) analyzed the paper of multinational corporation in developing countries where MNCs transfer highly cost technologies out of proper financial domestic support of developing countries which in turns, creates financial lurch and the force to turn to funding agencies as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group for loans carrying strings attached conditions in detriment of the developing countries. Perceptions of unwilling turns to international monetary groups in the case of developing countries constitutes a major criticism of those financing organizations because the acuity of an evident boundary between huge capital and international organizations is missed or invisible. Nevertheless, the remunerations of funds in the welfare of people of developing countries is not only isolated for other international actors as it is for the MNCs. Mukherjee (2008) exposed. 治政大 resources. But, at the same consideration of the cancelation of such international assistance 立 time, he affirmed “aid and loans from the IMF and the World Bank have a positive effect on those criticisms which have long suggested the failure of the IMF and the World Bank and the. ‧ 國. 學. economic development in developing countries that are democracies, but have a negligible or sometimes negative effect on development in developing nations that are autocratic”. ‧. (Mukherjee, 2008, p. 123).. The weaknesses of Official Development Assistance (ODA) with a focus on the donor. y. Nat. sit. side were quantified for Birdsall and Kharas (2010). Through a detailed work, they constructed. al. er. io. and implemented the idea of measuring the quality of the ODA with respect to the work of the. n. 23 countries that are members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the. Ch. i n U. v. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The initiative of this. engchi. investigation is based on the enquiries focused on the scope of the aid and its objectives to improve the quality of life of the people. It also looked at uncertainties about the amount of spending that reaches the beneficiary countries and the amount that of spending that is retained in the donor country, the costs faced by those countries receiving help, the information disclosed (and all details) by the members of the DAC, and mainly if the countries with its bilateral or multilateral agencies show improvement over time. For the authors, the failure of aid projects is due to the poor performance either of both the donor and the executing country or only one of these. In the study, 30 indicators were grouped into four broad categories to focus on the effectiveness of aid or the quality of aid as attributes of the assistance for good development of the quality of life of the people. This study attempted to change the generalized perspective about the quality of aid that has captured the attention of most of the actors over time, namely, that aid depends on quantity and not quality. With the results obtained, it was 25. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(32) possible to give a ranking to all the members of the DAC, reaffirming the necessity to improve the methods in which the help is provided. For this reason, the study also included a survey in order to obtain recommendations from donors’ responses to provide feedback and recommendations to improve future assistance processes. Despite criticism about the ODA processes and the quality of its assessment, Lanati and Thiele (2017) investigated the impact of foreign aid on migration. According their study, a direct connection between these two variables does not exist because it is still unexplored. The effects of foreign aid on migration have therefore not yet been determined, which opens the door to further study of the aid-migration link. The authors expressed the expectations created on migration by ODA disbursement-under the foreign aid term--from a single pattern of study.. 治政 (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation 大 and Development (OECD), which 立 proved a negative relation between the variables. The data used for their research corresponded to the Development Assistance Committee. ‧ 國. 學. This finding is congruent to the initial proposed indication of this research, aid should raises wealth levels among the people being influenced by aid, while at the same time, other. reduces emigration.. ‧. possible determinants of migration (education, poverty) are minimized and, as a result, aid. sit. y. Nat. er. io. 2.6 Regression Line in Social Science. al. v i n nature of the research fields creates C debate among investigators about the most suitable method hengchi U to undertake such work. However, the debates and differences in opinions cannot be definitely n. Quantitative approach represents measurable models for accurate analysis. The vast. considered as correct or wrong after an exchange of opinions but are questionable under personal intuition. Therefore; in the particular case of linear regression application in social science, the controversy of its use is present but, at the same time, the model has been implemented in research papers. The application of linear regression is implemented but all too often unappreciated. For Taagepera, “Most numerical results of regression analysis published in social science are dead on arrival: once printed, no one makes any further use of a single number in those tables and equations” (as cited in Taagepera, 2011, p. 73). About this kind of application, the defense of linear model applications was done by Krause (1994) who said James P. McGregor analysis about the use of linear models ignores many trustworthy developments whose strong, scathing. 26. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.

(33) criticism lead others to believe the absence of positive effects of linear model techniques with a skewed perspective. In addition, Krause exhorted the use of linear and even nonlinear models to embrace more advanced and more distinct approaches for political and social science complexity. Comments in favor of linear regression are based on the idea that discarding quantitative methods is not entirely possible because of the natural importance of numerical analysis. Regardless of the existence of other approaches in the study of social science, the selection of the methodology is valid for the exploration paper as long as a relationship of all conditions exits. Gerhan (1999, p. 166) proposed that:. Quantitative analysis plays such a role for students (and other patrons) because it is in the. 治政大 but also in disciplines often sociology, anthropology, political science, and economics, 立 but not always regarded as social scientific, namely history and psychology.. ascendancy in many of their fields of study, not only in the central social sciences of. ‧ 國. 學. Martinek (2017) elaborated on a review of a series of books aimed at teaching graduate. ‧. students research methods. In her review, she included five books: Real Stats: Using Econometrics for Political Science and Public Policy by Bailey, Applied Regression Analysis. y. Nat. sit. and Generalized Linear Models by Fox, Econometric Analysis, 7th Edition by Greene, Basic. al. er. io. Econometrics, 5th Edition by Gujarati and Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach,. n. 6th Edition by Wooldridge. The variety of techniques correspond to the wide range of. Ch. i n U. v. knowledge related to social science with a perspective of politics, economics, and others topics. engchi. under this discipline. Linear models found in these books are part of the consideration for graduate students to contemplate once applying research. The framework of the linear models is not a limitation for broadening and exploring other models. In fact, the review explained the existence of the linear model as part of the whole compendium of possibilities. Moreover, the expressions about linear regression or least squares are in favor of their usage in the social science field with solid observations. Coskuntuncel (2013, p. 2151) commented:. In scientific research projects, finding a relationship between two or more variables and then expressing it in a mathematical equation is an important dimension. Regression analysis has an important role in scientific research projects because it allows a researcher. 27. DOI:10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMPIS.001.2019.A06.