Chapter 6: Conclusion
6.2 Avenues for Future Research
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though this is less cost-effective than relying on the system of chartered oil tankers and maritime oil currently in use.
Looking beyond One Belt One Road, what else might China do to address its perceived vulnerability in the Strait of Malacca? An optimistic take on this is that China might be amenable to taking on a greater role in keeping the sea lanes of communication open. A more negative outcome is that as China’s navy and air force modernize, it may turn to force if it feels that its access to the Strait of Malacca is being threatened. China might also seek to expand its presence in Southeast Asia.
6.2 Avenues for Future Research
Despite being announced more than four years ago, One Belt One Road is still very much in its early stages. Future research will know if 1) One Belt One Road was successful overall, 2) if the energy-related projects were completed successfully, and 3) for those projects that were completed successfully, whether or not they had the intended impact. The leaking of the blueprint for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor suggests that there are likely master plans for each of the corridors, and possibly even one covering the entirety of One Belt One Road. Such documents could provide invaluable insight as to the true intent behind One Belt One Road, and whether this paper has accurately inferred China’s energy concerns and objectives. Future research will also be better able to determine whether
concessional loans are still the primary means of funding overseas investment under One Belt One Road as they were under the “going-out” strategy. If so, this could be used to build on existing literature about the effectiveness of Chinese concessional loans.
Another topic for future research is whether or not China’s national oil companies played a role in formulating One Belt One Road and the degree of involvement that they had
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in doing so. As Chapter 3 explained, the “going-out” strategy was initiated by CNPC without much government support, and only after “going-out” began to show success did the central government adopt “going-out” as its own economic strategy. Perhaps projects that began before the official announcement of One Belt One Road (such as the ESPO and China-Central Asia pipelines) are analogous to CNPC’s initial foreign investments, and only after they showed promise did the central government decide to push forward with One Belt One Road; this might explain why official documents mention them as falling under the Belt and Road umbrella.
On the issue of linkages between “going-out” and the Belt and Road, another issue worth exploring is the question of why China shifted its energy priorities away from
affordability and equity oil. One possibility is that China felt secure in the amount of equity oil it owned, and another is that China no longer considered equity oil to be the most
affordable option (as some scholarship has suggested). Additionally, while this paper argued that China’s energy security priority is now transport reliability, it focused on pipelines and did not delve as deeply into the expansion of the Chinese tanker fleet, air force, and navy.
With that in the mind, the implications of this paper extend beyond Chinese energy security. If the Belt and Road Initiative in fact follows the “going-out” paradigm in that its public debut was delayed until Chinese leaders felt secure in its success, then from an outside perspective, China will achieve a veneer of infallibility in its foreign policy; all of its
publicly-announced strategies will be successes. In the same vein, announcements about the direction of its foreign policy will be more credible to its prospective partners. On the other hand, policy-makers and researchers will have a difficult time predicting the direction and objectives of Chinese foreign policy.
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Appendices
Appendix A: Map of the Belt and Road Initiative Economic Corridors
(Map created by the Mercator Institute for China Studies http://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/china-mapping/china-mapping/)
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Appendix B: Survey Results Showing Respondent Ranking of Energy Security Dimensions Across China, India, and Japan (Sovacool 2012)
Rankings for China (% of Respondents Ranking a Dimension First or Second in Importance)
Dimension Mean (%) Number Standard Deviation
Have a secure supply of coal, gas, oil, and/or uranium
48 311 11.1
Promote trade in energy products, technologies, exports
15 310 9.9
Minimize depletion of domestically available energy fuels
33 308 7.7
Have stable, predictable, and clear price signals
13 306 8.2
Have affordably priced energy services 13 306 8.9 Have small-scale, decentralized energy
systems
7 304 10.1
Have low energy intensity 16 305 8.3
Conduct R&D on new and innovative energy technologies
30 304 8.5
Assure equitable access to energy services to all of its citizens
13 306 9.2
Ensure transparency and participation in energy permitting, siting, and decision making
15 300 9.1
Inform consumers and promote social and community education about energy issues
17 299 8.9
Minimize the destruction of forests and the degradation of land and soil
21 298 8.8
Provide available and clean water 26 304 10.1
Minimize air pollution 28 308 11.2
Minimize the impact of climate change (i.e., adaptation)
18 304 12.3
Reduce greenhouse gas emission (i.e., mitigation)
17 306 10.4
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Appendix C: Energy Data from the 2016 China Statistical Yearbook
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